2014-15 college basketball

[kso_FAN]

3) The foul rules worked, but for only 1 year. Pace efficiency (and FT rate) spiked back up while TO% dropped more than expected, but now everything is back to where things were before the rules changes.

did pace and efficiency go up, if you remove the effect of increased ft rate?  free thows cut possessions short and allow teams to score more efficiently.  i'd like to see if there was any effect on the those variables aside from the impact of more free throws.

Again, good point. I'm not sure how to factor that in, but I did look at % of points scored from 2s, 3s, and FTs. There was a slight jump last year for FTs.

[sys]

free throws cut possessions short when it's an on-the-floor defensive foul and the offensive team is in the bonus. but there's likely to be three to four possessions prior to the bonus where fouls actually lengthen possessions for a given team (i.e., a handcheck foul with 8 seconds left on the shot clock, followed by a 25-second possession, becomes a 52-second offensive possession).

don't think so.  easy to check though.  look at the %s of fouls that are shooting and player control vs. non shooting. and multiply by 7.  i bet it's one or two (per half) vs five-ten (per half) shooting, post-bonus and player control.

[kso_FAN]

one other dumb observation (sorry, this topic interests me and i've spent plenty of time thinking about it)...

many coaches are taking more control of their teams late in games. in the big ten, i've regularly seen chris collins, john groce and tom crean tell their players to slow it down, and then their guards will take orders from the sideline while burning clock. this typically happens when games are close and when possessions become more important.

look at this indiana-northwestern game from last week, played at a 58 tempo: http://kenpom.com/winprob.php?g=4865

until the late foul fest, look at how spaced out the possesions were in the second half (for those unaware, you can tell by the #'s on the bottom of the chart). collins was ordering super-long possessions and nw rarely entered its offense until the 15 to 20-second mark. guess what! this was still an exciting game. the lack of tempo didn't take away from the game at all. in all honesty, it probably enhanced it.

in the first half, the game was wild. indiana made 10 3's and northwestern also made a handful. collins is smart enough to know that indiana gets 31 percent of its initial shot attempts in transition, and that 42 percent of those transition shot attempts are 3-pointers (where indiana converts at an absurd 40 percent rate). quite obviously, if you want to beat indiana, you can't let them run. that means you must concede offensive rebounds and get back on defense, slowing their transition opportunities and forcing them to play halfcourt offense (where they can struggle).

this to me is basketball at its best. i enjoyed the crap out of this game.

dana altman is another late-game clock bleeder. on paper, this oregon-washington game (http://kenpom.com/winprob.php?g=3883) looked like a snoozer. only 62 possessions! yet, the first half was played at a 67 pace - above average - before the 2nd half slowed way down as oregon slowed way down, choosing to value possessions and work for the best possible shot against a defense that continually broke down as it tried to adjust to life without robert upshaw.

No need to apologize, that's good stuff. (and honestly, I had never paid much attention to the possession length part at the bottom of kp's charts).

[j rake]

free throws cut possessions short when it's an on-the-floor defensive foul and the offensive team is in the bonus. but there's likely to be three to four possessions prior to the bonus where fouls actually lengthen possessions for a given team (i.e., a handcheck foul with 8 seconds left on the shot clock, followed by a 25-second possession, becomes a 52-second offensive possession).

don't think so.  easy to check though.  look at the %s of fouls that are shooting and player control vs. non shooting. and multiply by 7.  i bet it's one or two (per half) vs five-ten (per half) shooting, post-bonus and player control.

i'm merely pointing out that free throws of the non-shooting variety only matter when they occur after the sixth foul. if it's a shot foul, the possession would be the same length as if there was no foul called, absent an offensive rebound.

[Trim]

[j rake]

also, why does everyone assume that all teams want to play faster?

jim larranaga is historically a slow coach (typically 63 possessions on average), but he took it to extremes last year (58.5 per possession, 56.5 in league), and it had nothing to do with the rules changes. he decided to play slower on both ends (methodical on offense, zone on defense) to make games as slow as humanly possible in an effort to give his undermanned team a better chance to win.

and, to a large degree, it worked! they were far more competitive and competed against superior teams home and away.

After losing 87 percent of his scoring from last season, Larranaga figured that this season’s team would struggle to score points, and he was right. Nationally, the Hurricanes rank a miserable 255th in effective field goal percentage and 152nd in overall adjusted offensive efficiency, and not much offensive improvement should be expected with this roster. Knowing that, Larranaga wisely chose to focus on what this group can do well — using their length and collective willingness to play defense to his advantage. Not only does the match-up zone maximize his available talents, but it also accomplishes a twin goal of limiting possessions. Currently, Miami ranks as the slowest team in the country with an average of 59.6 possessions per game. This slower pace has helped Miami hang with more dynamic scoring teams. For example, when most pundits expected the Hurricanes to get blown out at Syracuse, Miami actually led most of the way before falling by five points in a snail-like 49-possession game. After that, the Hurricanes held North Carolina to 30.8 percent shooting in a rare Miami win in Chapel Hill, again controlling the tempo throughout.

[Skipper44]

I wonder if the over coaching is partly due to the reduction in coaching tenure coupled with the huge increase in player turnover with the way players transfer and a lesser extent the 1 and done rule.  I guess I can't blame a coach for refusing to sit down and let his players play when he has a 10+ million dollar contract on the line and the the 5 guys on the floor have only played an average 1.5 seasons for him.

[sys]

also, why does everyone assume that all teams want to play faster?

no one assumes that.  most people do assume that all fans prefer faster play, which i think is foolish (of the fans), but is probably relatively accurate.


it may be one of those things, though, where people say they prefer to watch faster play, but in reality they don't.  like all players say they like to play fast, but many actually don't.

[Mixed-Nutz]

Viewers don't want more points directly, IMO. That want a more beautiful game, take the ugly out. I think the focus needs to be solely on increasing the FG% of college basketball. The game is more appealing when teams are making shots. I think shooters wouldn't have issues adjusting to a longer 3fg distance. It would open up the interior of the defense. Officials need to do a better job of  calling contact at the rim. But that would also making harder on post players defensively. So I would also allow defenders to arm bar on post ups.

[j rake]

I wonder if the over coaching is partly due to the reduction in coaching tenure coupled with the huge increase in player turnover with the way players transfer and a lesser extent the 1 and done rule.  I guess I can't blame a coach for refusing to sit down and let his players play when he has a 10+ million dollar contract on the line and the the 5 guys on the floor have only played an average 1.5 seasons for him.

i have wondered this as well. but it seems like college hoops coaches, certainly at the power conference level, have more job security nowadays than ever before (the result of having more postseason opportunities, larger fields, etc.) off the top of my head, i can think of very few big 12 coaches who have gotten fired in recent years. there's been like two coach firings (both at texas tech?) since the league reformatted three years ago, unless i'm forgetting someone.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

[Skipper44]

also, why does everyone assume that all teams want to play faster?

no one assumes that.  most people do assume that all fans prefer faster play, which i think is foolish (of the fans), but is probably relatively accurate.


it may be one of those things, though, where people say they prefer to watch faster play, but in reality they don't.  like all players say they like to play fast, but many actually don't.

Fans of a particular team obviously want to watch their team win by any means possible. 

Fans of the sport just watching a game for fun want to be entertained.  A slow paced game that is close, has a good atmosphere and isn't a turnover or foulfest can be entertaining but watching 2 teams walk it up, hardly even look at the hoop for 20 seconds and then throw up a guarded 3 while 3 guys sprint back to insure there is no transition is no fun at all.

[Rage Against the McKee]

watching 2 teams walk it up, hardly even look at the hoop for 20 seconds and then throw up a guarded 3 while 3 guys sprint back to insure there is no transition is no fun at all.

I have never seen a college basketball game where this happened.

[Skipper44]

I wonder if the over coaching is partly due to the reduction in coaching tenure coupled with the huge increase in player turnover with the way players transfer and a lesser extent the 1 and done rule.  I guess I can't blame a coach for refusing to sit down and let his players play when he has a 10+ million dollar contract on the line and the the 5 guys on the floor have only played an average 1.5 seasons for him.

i have wondered this as well. but it seems like college hoops coaches, certainly at the power conference level, have more job security nowadays than ever before (the result of having more postseason opportunities, larger fields, etc.) off the top of my head, i can think of very few big 12 coaches who have gotten fired in recent years. there's been like two coach firings (both at texas tech?) since the league reformatted three years ago, unless i'm forgetting someone.

I would include McNeck pulling his Altman as getting fired. 

[Skipper44]

watching 2 teams walk it up, hardly even look at the hoop for 20 seconds and then throw up a guarded 3 while 3 guys sprint back to insure there is no transition is no fun at all.

I have never seen a college basketball game where this happened.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2009/02/18/penn-state-38-illinois-33

[Skipper44]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

As a fan of watching cbb I would love not allowing help defenders to take a charge in the lane.  It would be horrible for the Webercats but encouraging guys to attack the basket and help defenders to either try to make a play on the ball or get out of the way would be more entertaining.  And don't get me started on the charges called on a passer after he has passed the ball and is not even moving toward to the basket.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

As a fan of watching cbb I would love not allowing help defenders to take a charge in the lane.  It would be horrible for the Webercats but encouraging guys to attack the basket and help defenders to either try to make a play on the ball or get out of the way would be more entertaining.  And don't get me started on the charges called on a passer after he has passed the ball and is not even moving toward to the basket.

Nope. They should call more charges, not less.

[Skipper44]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

As a fan of watching cbb I would love not allowing help defenders to take a charge in the lane.  It would be horrible for the Webercats but encouraging guys to attack the basket and help defenders to either try to make a play on the ball or get out of the way would be more entertaining.  And don't get me started on the charges called on a passer after he has passed the ball and is not even moving toward to the basket.

Nope. They should call more charges, not less.

Ok oscar, get out there and sign us up some more MM- bigs

[j rake]

watching 2 teams walk it up, hardly even look at the hoop for 20 seconds and then throw up a guarded 3 while 3 guys sprint back to insure there is no transition is no fun at all.

I have never seen a college basketball game where this happened.

oh man, then you weren't around for this classic? 

http://kenpom.com/winprob.php?g=5666&y=2011 (44 possessions if you don't subscribe)

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/college/mensbasketball/bigten/2011-03-11-penn-state-wisconsin_N.htm

"It's the story of the coach who asked one of his players how his grades went, and the kid said, 'Three Fs and a D,' " Badgers coach Bo Ryan said. "You know the answer the coach came back with? He says, 'You spent way too much time on one class.' "

[Rage Against the McKee]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

As a fan of watching cbb I would love not allowing help defenders to take a charge in the lane.  It would be horrible for the Webercats but encouraging guys to attack the basket and help defenders to either try to make a play on the ball or get out of the way would be more entertaining.  And don't get me started on the charges called on a passer after he has passed the ball and is not even moving toward to the basket.

Nope. They should call more charges, not less.

Ok oscar, get out there and sign us up some more MM- bigs

I don't know what oscar or K-State have to do with wanting to watch a basketball game where the defense doesn't have to just give up open dunks all day.

[Skipper44]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

As a fan of watching cbb I would love not allowing help defenders to take a charge in the lane.  It would be horrible for the Webercats but encouraging guys to attack the basket and help defenders to either try to make a play on the ball or get out of the way would be more entertaining.  And don't get me started on the charges called on a passer after he has passed the ball and is not even moving toward to the basket.

Nope. They should call more charges, not less.

Ok oscar, get out there and sign us up some more MM- bigs

I don't know what oscar or K-State have to do with wanting to watch a basketball game where the defense doesn't have to just give up open dunks all day.

do you not enjoy dunks? 

[Rage Against the McKee]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

As a fan of watching cbb I would love not allowing help defenders to take a charge in the lane.  It would be horrible for the Webercats but encouraging guys to attack the basket and help defenders to either try to make a play on the ball or get out of the way would be more entertaining.  And don't get me started on the charges called on a passer after he has passed the ball and is not even moving toward to the basket.

Nope. They should call more charges, not less.

Ok oscar, get out there and sign us up some more MM- bigs

I don't know what oscar or K-State have to do with wanting to watch a basketball game where the defense doesn't have to just give up open dunks all day.

do you not enjoy dunks?

They really are only enjoyable because they are hard to pull off. Making them easy cheapens them.

[Skipper44]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

As a fan of watching cbb I would love not allowing help defenders to take a charge in the lane.  It would be horrible for the Webercats but encouraging guys to attack the basket and help defenders to either try to make a play on the ball or get out of the way would be more entertaining.  And don't get me started on the charges called on a passer after he has passed the ball and is not even moving toward to the basket.

Nope. They should call more charges, not less.

Ok oscar, get out there and sign us up some more MM- bigs

I don't know what oscar or K-State have to do with wanting to watch a basketball game where the defense doesn't have to just give up open dunks all day.

do you not enjoy dunks?

They really are only enjoyable because they are hard to pull off. Making them easy cheapens them.

the dunker still has to beat at least one defender, he just doesn't have to worry about somebody sliding over after he has committed to attacking the basket. Also, imagine the exciting plays above the rim at the end of games as defenders have no choice but to go for the block.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I support shortening the shot clock. I hated the way fouls were called at the beginning of last season. I really don't have a problem with low scoring basketball games with low FG%, though. The game is more fun to watch with less whistles.

As a fan of watching cbb I would love not allowing help defenders to take a charge in the lane.  It would be horrible for the Webercats but encouraging guys to attack the basket and help defenders to either try to make a play on the ball or get out of the way would be more entertaining.  And don't get me started on the charges called on a passer after he has passed the ball and is not even moving toward to the basket.

Nope. They should call more charges, not less.

Ok oscar, get out there and sign us up some more MM- bigs

I don't know what oscar or K-State have to do with wanting to watch a basketball game where the defense doesn't have to just give up open dunks all day.

do you not enjoy dunks?

They really are only enjoyable because they are hard to pull off. Making them easy cheapens them.

the dunker still has to beat at least one defender, he just doesn't have to worry about somebody sliding over after he has committed to attacking the basket. Also, imagine the exciting plays above the rim at the end of games as defenders have no choice but to go for the block.

If the defender slides over to help, somebody else is wide open. Good defensive basketball is fun to watch. Turnovers are fun. Free throws are not. Also, end of game plays wouldn't change much. Teams would still milk the clock and shoot a jumper more often than not.

[Skipper44]

there isn't much fun about dead ball turnovers unless you are a fan of the team on defense.