good analysis, rake.
Duke's FBS opponents:
#124 Troy (W)
#74 Kansas (W)
#112 Tulane (W)
Miami:
#43 Louisville (L)
#95 Arkansas State (W)
#20 Nebraska (L)
team that has wiped the floor with 3 bad teams vs team that has wiped the floor with 1 bad team and been soundly beaten by 2 above average teams
i was just surprised it moved towards Miami
Miami deserves a pass for the L'Ville opener. Road game in front of a huge crowd on a weeknight, with frosh QB playing his first-ever game. They thoroughly beat Ark St, which is a below average team but by no means terrible. And against Nebraska, Miami moved the ball well through the air (8.5 yppa) against a solid defense, one that's definitely better than Duke.
Probably a bigger game for Miami given that they're already 0-1 in league play. And again, Duke's D hasn't been tested. Elon's offense is a disaster, and Tulane, KU and Troy are bad and all breaking in new QBs.
Also, Miami was not "soundly" beaten by Nebraska. They trailed by 3 late third and by 7 early in the fourth despite being minus-1 in turnovers, and despite giving up a defensive touchdown - which was ultimately the difference in the game. As far as YPP, it was virtually even, with Miami having all its success through the air and Nebraska getting everything on the ground.