2014 Handicapping Thread -- Degenerates ONLY

[GoodForAnother]

well hey, some mocat math followed by a BP possible tail is all I need to throw a farm on UNM

[mocat]

Won't touch the UTEP game. Just watch our offense finally really click and us have a defensive and special teams touchdown.

Might not hit, but that's why there's an element of gambling to it.  With that said, the algo we use to find an edge says we have a 10-14 point advantage based on where we believe line should be, depending on whether one got it at 26 or 30ish.

NC State +21.5
UTEP +26.5
NM State +42.5
TX State +4.5
Duke +7
New Mexico +5.5
Arizona State +5.5

all my most confident plays this week are on dogs 

Great card.  May tail the UNM play... Bought Dook too early, glad you got 7.

Yeah I couldn't believe it moved up. Wtf has Miami done?

[Bqqkie Pimp]

@BP and Mocat, I get that it's all about statistics and not the least bit about what we "see". I'm just showing my lack of gambling experience, I guess. Not quite a degenerate yet!

In my opinion, its "mostly" about statistics. However, to maximize return one has to take matchups and situations into account as well.

[j rake]

Yeah I couldn't believe it moved up. Wtf has Miami done?

Duke hasn't done anything either. Beat Elon, KU and Tulane (all at home) and god-awful Troy. The Tulane final was super misleading (Tulane had five TO's, including two pick-6's late); KU couldn't expose Duke's banged-up D and Troy, quite literally the worst Sun Belt team and in the discussion for worst team in the country, actually led 14-3 before eventually covering.

Duke closed as a 3.5-point dog late last year at home and will take (at least) a small step back this year, while Miami is likely about the same (despite a few bad road losses), so the line actually makes some sense. That said, hard to trust Miami laying more than 6 here, IMO.

[mocat]

good analysis, rake.

Duke's FBS opponents:
#124 Troy (W)
#74 Kansas (W)
#112 Tulane (W)

Miami:
#43 Louisville (L)
#95 Arkansas State (W)
#20 Nebraska (L)

team that has wiped the floor with 3 bad teams vs team that has wiped the floor with 1 bad team and been soundly beaten by 2 above average teams 

i was just surprised it moved towards Miami

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

gonna take Tech +14 tomorrow night

['taterblast]

@davidubben 
Semi-alarming stat: Baylor is 3-11 on natural grass under Art Briles and 0-2 on the grass at Jack Trice Stadium. http://foxs.pt/1qsCZPQ

[mocat]

@davidubben 
Baylor is 3-11 on natural grass under Art Briles

somebody show me those 14 games, tia

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

@davidubben 
Baylor is 3-11 on natural grass under Art Briles

somebody show me those 14 games, tia

well, OU used to (dont know if they still do) have grass, Nebraska, Colorado and A&M all did while they were in the Big 12. briles first season at baylor was 2008, so im guessing a bulk of those losses were to those 4 teams plus ISU from 08-12.

then youve got the fiesta bowl last season...

[Bqqkie Pimp]

@davidubben 
Baylor is 3-11 on natural grass under Art Briles

somebody show me those 14 games, tia

Losses: Fiesta Bowl last January, last two trips to Ames, all their roadies to OU, TCU in '10, Aggy in '11, Texas Bowl vs Illinois '10... there's a few more, but tired of searching and can't remember what year Briles started

Wins: Holiday Bowl in '12 vs UCLA, @ TCU '13, @ CU '10

[j rake]

good analysis, rake.

Duke's FBS opponents:
#124 Troy (W)
#74 Kansas (W)
#112 Tulane (W)

Miami:
#43 Louisville (L)
#95 Arkansas State (W)
#20 Nebraska (L)

team that has wiped the floor with 3 bad teams vs team that has wiped the floor with 1 bad team and been soundly beaten by 2 above average teams 

i was just surprised it moved towards Miami

Miami deserves a pass for the L'Ville opener. Road game in front of a huge crowd on a weeknight, with frosh QB playing his first-ever game. They thoroughly beat Ark St, which is a below average team but by no means terrible. And against Nebraska, Miami moved the ball well through the air (8.5 yppa) against a solid defense, one that's definitely better than Duke.

Probably a bigger game for Miami given that they're already 0-1 in league play. And again, Duke's D hasn't been tested. Elon's offense is a disaster, and Tulane, KU and Troy are bad and all breaking in new QBs.

Also, Miami was not "soundly" beaten by Nebraska. They trailed by 3 late third and by 7 early in the fourth despite being minus-1 in turnovers, and despite giving up a defensive touchdown - which was ultimately the difference in the game. As far as YPP, it was virtually even, with Miami having all its success through the air and Nebraska getting everything on the ground.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Added totals plays:

KSU/UTEP U56
Texas/ku  U42
ISU/Baylor U69.5

[HipsterNonsense]

@BP and Mocat, I get that it's all about statistics and not the least bit about what we "see". I'm just showing my lack of gambling experience, I guess. Not quite a degenerate yet!

In my opinion, its "mostly" about statistics. However, to maximize return one has to take matchups and situations into account as well.

What kind of stats do you use in your  model? TIA

[Bqqkie Pimp]

@BP and Mocat, I get that it's all about statistics and not the least bit about what we "see". I'm just showing my lack of gambling experience, I guess. Not quite a degenerate yet!

In my opinion, its "mostly" about statistics. However, to maximize return one has to take matchups and situations into account as well.

What kind of stats do you use in your  model? TIA

pace (plays per game), yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, yards per completion, avg finish in relation to closing line (side/total), yds allowed, yds per play allowed, yds per rush allowed, yds per pass allowed, etc., etc.

[HipsterNonsense]

@BP and Mocat, I get that it's all about statistics and not the least bit about what we "see". I'm just showing my lack of gambling experience, I guess. Not quite a degenerate yet!

In my opinion, its "mostly" about statistics. However, to maximize return one has to take matchups and situations into account as well.

What kind of stats do you use in your  model? TIA

pace (plays per game), yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, yards per completion, avg finish in relation to closing line (side/total), yds allowed, yds per play allowed, yds per rush allowed, yds per pass allowed, etc., etc.

Interesting, thanks. What kind of model is it (not asking for trade secrets here; just general statistical techniques involved)? Are you a "math guy?"

[Bqqkie Pimp]

@BP and Mocat, I get that it's all about statistics and not the least bit about what we "see". I'm just showing my lack of gambling experience, I guess. Not quite a degenerate yet!

In my opinion, its "mostly" about statistics. However, to maximize return one has to take matchups and situations into account as well.

What kind of stats do you use in your  model? TIA

pace (plays per game), yards per play, yards per rush, yards per pass, yards per completion, avg finish in relation to closing line (side/total), yds allowed, yds per play allowed, yds per rush allowed, yds per pass allowed, etc., etc.

Interesting, thanks. What kind of model is it (not asking for trade secrets here; just general statistical techniques involved)? Are you a "math guy?"

I'm not a "math guy".  A good friend of mine came up with a solid algorithm for predicting cfb outcomes.  I look at matchups and situations so that we can apply those angles to find an edge in any games, then we sort our card from there.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Adding:

Tennessee +17
Memphis +21

[pissclams]

take duke this week

['taterblast]

it's kind of funny how stupid i feel after losing a bet and conversely how smart i feel after winning a bet.

Arizona St +5.5
OSU/Tech Under 71

Tech +15
Georgia Southern -15.5

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

gonna take Tech +14 tomorrow night

^ this is parlayed with Miami -7.

also took O65 and UCLA -3.5 parlayed last night.

lost Tech/OSU U70.5

[Dr Rick Daris]

your rick daris double gold pick of the week is take the cats. they'll cover. i only offer up two or three of these double gold picks ever year so you might want to jump on this one you guys.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

your rick daris double gold pick of the week is take the cats. they'll cover. i only offer up two or three of these double gold picks ever year so you might want to jump on this one you guys.

You could pull a timhawk and just take everybody's UTEP action on the board?

 

[Bqqkie Pimp]

for those interested & understand the value here:  http://www.shaggybevo.com/board/showthread.php/150491-CFB-Week-5?p=7170966&viewfull=1#post7170966

['taterblast]

i'm watching a dvr of the tech-osu game from last night. didn't pay any attention to it as i was busy with something else, just saw the final score. it is 7-0 tech with 3 min left in the first quarter. i would have felt pretty good about my under 71 bet at this point if was watching live.

[Dr Rick Daris]

your rick daris double gold pick of the week is take the cats. they'll cover. i only offer up two or three of these double gold picks ever year so you might want to jump on this one you guys.

You could pull a timhawk and just take everybody's UTEP action on the board?

 

meh. i haven't bet on anything in years but i am very knowledgeable about when the cats will and won't cover. they are getting ready to drop the hammer on utep. double gold pick. lock it up.