Author Topic: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread  (Read 429602 times)

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Offline ChiComCat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #875 on: June 08, 2014, 04:38:12 PM »
Most of the papers they studied are not about climate change and its causes, but many were taken as evidence nonetheless. Papers on carbon taxes naturally assume that carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming – but assumptions are not conclusions. Cook’s claim of an increasing consensus over time is entirely due to an increase of the number of irrelevant papers that Cook and co mistook for evidence.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jun/06/97-consensus-global-warming

Consensus is irrelevant in science. There are plenty of examples in history where everyone agreed and everyone was wrong. Cook’s consensus is also irrelevant in policy. They try to show that climate change is real and human-made. It is does not follow whether and by how much greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced.


Please tell me your argument isn't "because scientists have been wrong before we should just ignore them"

Reminds me of the dumbass belief that some people have on the football board that because player X was a two star and successful, every two star is going to be just as successful.

LOL, that's not the point of the article nor the argument.



Didn't read the article but the highlighted part about ignoring consensus because its been wrong before seems to point that way

Offline star seed 7

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #876 on: June 08, 2014, 05:51:05 PM »
The concensus once thought the world was flat, ChiCat
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #877 on: June 09, 2014, 10:35:05 AM »
The concensus once thought the world was flat, ChiCat

Now it think the world is round, so that must be wrong too.  Also, global warming.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #878 on: June 09, 2014, 04:59:03 PM »
So, we can't really say how much or how little CO2 emissions are impacting the environment but we're going to go ahead and impose radical, extremely expensive policies which will likely have a negative impact on the economy and make life more difficult for the working poor, elderly and those on fixed incomes (but will make a select chosen few extremely wealthy and/or much more wealthy than they already are).

 :thumbsup:

Offline michigancat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #879 on: June 09, 2014, 05:26:52 PM »
So, we can't really say how much or how little CO2 emissions are impacting the environment but we're going to go ahead and impose radical, extremely expensive policies which will likely have a negative impact on the economy and make life more difficult for the working poor, elderly and those on fixed incomes (but will make a select chosen few extremely wealthy and/or much more wealthy than they already are).

 :thumbsup:

How expensive will the policies be and how much will they make life more difficult for the working poor, elderly and those on fixed incomes?

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #880 on: June 09, 2014, 05:46:05 PM »
So, we can't really say how much or how little CO2 emissions are impacting the environment but we're going to go ahead and impose radical, extremely expensive policies which will likely have a negative impact on the economy and make life more difficult for the working poor, elderly and those on fixed incomes (but will make a select chosen few extremely wealthy and/or much more wealthy than they already are).

 :thumbsup:

How expensive will the policies be and how much will they make life more difficult for the working poor, elderly and those on fixed incomes?

Here's a good start, and understand that Germany is 1/4 size of the U.S. population:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-16/merkel-s-offshore-wind-power-dream-for-germany-stalls.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/03/14/germanys-green-energy-disaster-a-cautionary-tale-for-world-leaders/

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/world/europe/merkel-offers-defense-of-her-policy-on-energy.html?_r=0


The price of energy will go up, unless there's massive government subsidies, someone has to pay for the subsidies, so there's going to be increased costs inputted into the system and passed down to the consumer one way or the other.



Offline michigancat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #881 on: June 09, 2014, 05:52:04 PM »
The price of energy will go up, unless there's massive government subsidies, someone has to pay for the subsidies, so there's going to be increased costs inputted into the system and passed down to the consumer one way or the other.

I get all that, but you don't seem to know exactly how much costs will increase. (or even come close to estimating the costs to consumers).

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #882 on: June 09, 2014, 05:57:16 PM »
The price of energy will go up, unless there's massive government subsidies, someone has to pay for the subsidies, so there's going to be increased costs inputted into the system and passed down to the consumer one way or the other.

I get all that, but you don't seem to know exactly how much costs will increase. (or even come close to estimating the costs to consumers).

The EPA's proposal didn't include these numbers?

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #883 on: June 09, 2014, 05:58:11 PM »
The price of energy will go up, unless there's massive government subsidies, someone has to pay for the subsidies, so there's going to be increased costs inputted into the system and passed down to the consumer one way or the other.

I get all that, but you don't seem to know exactly how much costs will increase. (or even come close to estimating the costs to consumers).

Wow, because Is said the price will go up means I know exactly how much they're going to up?  Sounds like you just don't like the message cRusty.

One of the world's largest economies went almost all in on green energy and had/has some of the highest if not highest energy rates of the G7 or G6 or G8 (whatever is is now) countries.  Would have been even higher if not for massive gov't subsidies.   I'd say that's a pretty good model to go off of.

Offline michigancat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #884 on: June 09, 2014, 06:11:47 PM »
The price of energy will go up, unless there's massive government subsidies, someone has to pay for the subsidies, so there's going to be increased costs inputted into the system and passed down to the consumer one way or the other.

I get all that, but you don't seem to know exactly how much costs will increase. (or even come close to estimating the costs to consumers).

Wow, because Is said the price will go up means I know exactly how much they're going to up?  Sounds like you just don't like the message cRusty.

I recognize there will be uncertainty with how much cost to consumers will go up, just like I realize there is uncertainty with how much CO2 emissions affect climate.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #885 on: June 09, 2014, 06:13:50 PM »
The price of energy will go up, unless there's massive government subsidies, someone has to pay for the subsidies, so there's going to be increased costs inputted into the system and passed down to the consumer one way or the other.

I get all that, but you don't seem to know exactly how much costs will increase. (or even come close to estimating the costs to consumers).

Wow, because Is said the price will go up means I know exactly how much they're going to up?  Sounds like you just don't like the message cRusty.

I recognize there will be uncertainty with how much cost to consumers will go up, just like I realize there is uncertainty with how much CO2 emissions affect climate.

We have a pretty definitive guide on the impact on consumers.   Unless you're trying to say that climate is as easy to predict as economics.


Offline michigancat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #886 on: June 09, 2014, 06:21:20 PM »
We have a pretty definitive guide on the impact on consumers.   Unless you're trying to say that climate is as easy to predict as economics.

Germany's situation is not a "pretty definitive guide", when compared to the US. Are you just referring to the reduction of Coal Emissions recently proposed? Or just a bunch of vague "policies"?

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #887 on: June 09, 2014, 06:36:23 PM »
We have a pretty definitive guide on the impact on consumers.   Unless you're trying to say that climate is as easy to predict as economics.

Germany's situation is not a "pretty definitive guide", when compared to the US. Are you just referring to the reduction of Coal Emissions recently proposed? Or just a bunch of vague "policies"?

So let me get this straight.    In Germany they had some of the, if not the highest electrical rates in the industrialized world BECAUSE of their green energy policies.    Yet that doesn't serve as a guide as to what will likely happen in the United States?   I mean really, nothing short of a paradigm changing break through in green energy technology will allow for any avoidance of the same fate if the United States heads down the same path as Germany.

At this juncture I don't even get the point you're trying to make.   Better regroup.




Offline michigancat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #888 on: June 09, 2014, 06:45:19 PM »
We have a pretty definitive guide on the impact on consumers.   Unless you're trying to say that climate is as easy to predict as economics.

Germany's situation is not a "pretty definitive guide", when compared to the US. Are you just referring to the reduction of Coal Emissions recently proposed? Or just a bunch of vague "policies"?

So let me get this straight.    In Germany they had some of the, if not the highest electrical rates in the industrialized world BECAUSE of their green energy policies.    Yet that doesn't serve as a guide as to what will likely happen in the United States? 

Correct, we aren't implementing anything close to everything Germany did.

My point is you seem to be OK with implementing no emission reductions because we don't know how much emissions affect climate, yet we don't know how much more (vague) proposed(?) policy changes would cost the average consumer. And I enjoy that.

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #889 on: June 09, 2014, 06:50:21 PM »
We have a pretty definitive guide on the impact on consumers.   Unless you're trying to say that climate is as easy to predict as economics.

Germany's situation is not a "pretty definitive guide", when compared to the US. Are you just referring to the reduction of Coal Emissions recently proposed? Or just a bunch of vague "policies"?

So let me get this straight.    In Germany they had some of the, if not the highest electrical rates in the industrialized world BECAUSE of their green energy policies.    Yet that doesn't serve as a guide as to what will likely happen in the United States? 

Correct, we aren't implementing anything close to everything Germany did.

My point is you seem to be OK with implementing no emission reductions because we don't know how much emissions affect climate, yet we don't know how much more (vague) proposed(?) policy changes would cost the average consumer. And I enjoy that.

This is just Obama keeping a campaign promise from 2008, "energy prices will necessarily skyrocket". I think he may have been telling the truth in this instance.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #890 on: June 09, 2014, 09:16:27 PM »
We have a pretty definitive guide on the impact on consumers.   Unless you're trying to say that climate is as easy to predict as economics.

Germany's situation is not a "pretty definitive guide", when compared to the US. Are you just referring to the reduction of Coal Emissions recently proposed? Or just a bunch of vague "policies"?

So let me get this straight.    In Germany they had some of the, if not the highest electrical rates in the industrialized world BECAUSE of their green energy policies.    Yet that doesn't serve as a guide as to what will likely happen in the United States?   I mean really, nothing short of a paradigm changing break through in green energy technology will allow for any avoidance of the same fate if the United States heads down the same path as Germany.

At this juncture I don't even get the point you're trying to make.   Better regroup.

It has also been a disaster for Spain.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline sys

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"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #892 on: June 10, 2014, 08:46:07 AM »

Offline michigancat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #893 on: June 10, 2014, 08:49:35 AM »

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #894 on: June 10, 2014, 10:45:59 AM »
I think that calculating the true cost of any new regulations with any certainty, let alone the sweeping changes being proposed, is not really possible. Common sense tells me it will cost a lot in both hard dollars and productivity.

But it's even more ethereal to predict the impact of these regulations on climate. We don't even know that a warmer climate is even a bad thing on the whole - there are studies to the contrary - let alone whether such regulations would have any impact whatsoever. Common sense tells me it would have little to no impact.

But I don't need to rely on just common sense. Somebody posted somewhere that all the models predicted significant global warming over the last 20 years, and all these models were wrong. Despite pumping greater and greater amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, warming has stalled. Hurricanes and other severe weather are at near record lulls. Our planet doesn't really seem to give two shits about what we do. Life goes on.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline sys

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #895 on: June 10, 2014, 02:49:08 PM »
it's not really all that hard to predict the impact of the proposed epa rules.  they establish the baseline with 2005 emissions.  we're down 12% from 2005 already, so the proposal is really nothing more than maintaining something fairly close to the current level of emission reductions for the next 15 years.   :runaway:
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #896 on: June 10, 2014, 02:53:59 PM »
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/06/28/196355493/economists-have-a-one-page-solution-to-climate-change

As I've said before, good luck getting China and other shitty countries to comply.

i didn't really link it (again) for you.  just for the posters that continue to insist that it's not possible to reduce carbon emissions without crippling the economy.


worth noting; however, that china invests substantially more in green energy than the us does.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #897 on: June 10, 2014, 07:19:37 PM »
worth noting; however, that china invests substantially more in green energy than the us does.

Doesn't seem to be working for them.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #898 on: June 10, 2014, 07:22:24 PM »
I wonder what our emissions would be like if we hadn't all but regulated nuclear plants out of existence over the past 40 years? Oh well, no looking back, onward to the next green hysteria which definitely won't backfire on us, this time....
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline michigancat

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #899 on: June 10, 2014, 07:54:47 PM »
I wonder what our emissions would be like if we hadn't all but regulated nuclear plants out of existence over the past 40 years?

Not sure, I'm picturing a glowing green color