2013 Season Big 12 Efficiency and Four Factors (regular season adv stats)

[catzacker]

I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that.  We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.

Of course you do.  You wouldn't be Catzacker if you didn't.

meh.  i think it's a legitimate question/concern regardless of who asks it.

[WillieWatanabe]

I find Baylor odd.

[kso_FAN]

I find Baylor odd.

Half their games so far against Tech, TCU, and UT, by far the easiest league schedule to this point. Plus handled OSU in Waco.

[ChiComCat]

I find Baylor odd.

Half their games so far against Tech, TCU, and UT, by far the easiest league schedule to this point. Plus handled OSU in Waco.

Yea, I think they sink.  OSU has nearly the opposite of that though and could rise.  KU, KSU @ home and toughest roadie @ ISU

[sys]

i think our efg will fall, but there's no reason the ppp can't stay at 1.10 or better.  there's a lot of room for improvement by a simple return to parity in the ft rate diff.  oboarding can improve as well.  we had a bad run with oboarding that's influencing the numbers, but it's a good oboarding team.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

I like how much our team has improved this year.

[Powercat Posse]

Last 4 games our OR% is 40.0 and we are 76.1% at the FT line (54-71). That's 2 areas we were not great the first 6 conf gms.

Keep that up and we will be difficult to beat.   

[kso_FAN]

I think zacker's concern is valid. Again, most people won't notice it because the media will continue to throw out traditional stats and mention that K-State is the best "scoring defense" in the league, when in reality our defense is average and we have the best offense in the league. When people ignore pace the truth gets left behind. Our rebounding has continued to improve, but eFG% and FT rate are still concerns. We've shown we can play okay in defensive grinders, but it would be nice to get that eFG% down a couple percentage points as we are now last in the league in that area.

[Powercat Posse]

I think zacker's concern is valid. Again, most people won't notice it because the media will continue to throw out traditional stats and mention that K-State is the best "scoring defense" in the league, when in reality our defense is average and we have the best offense in the league. When people ignore pace the truth gets left behind. Our rebounding has continued to improve, but eFG% and FT rate are still concerns. We've shown we can play okay in defensive grinders, but it would be nice to get that eFG% down a couple percentage points as we are now last in the league in that area.

I agree the 49.3 FG% allowed is too high.   We are the only ones that have played Isu twice and they shot very well against us.  46.5% is what we have allowed in the other 8 conf games.    Still havent faced Baylor and their 46.3 FG% yet either.   Let's hope these last 8 games, we can allow around 46.0% 

[sys]

We are the only ones that have played Isu twice and they shot very well against us.  46.5% is what we have allowed in the other 8 conf games.    Still havent faced Baylor and their 46.3 FG% yet either.   Let's hope these last 8 games, we can allow around 46.0%

yes, great point.  we've played more than our fair share of good offenses and poor defenses.

[catzacker]

I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that.  We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.

[kso_FAN]

I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that.  We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.

Our defense isn't great, but the numbers will get better.

We play offenses ranked #4, #6, #7 (twice), #8, #9, and #10 in PPP in our remaining games. eFG% ranked #3 (WVU?), #6, #7 (twice), #8, #9, #10.

6 of 7 games against teams that are in the bottom four in offensive efficiency and shooting.

[kso_FAN]

http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/ken-pomeroy-college-basketball-statistics-guru-makes-sense-of-unpredictable-world-020513?m_n=true

[sys]

hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.

[michigancat]

hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.

Yeah.

[catzacker]

hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.

pffft.  Like a guy who's never been a head coach or assistant coach at any level can just come in and win in the big12.  Hoiberg would have been better off being a college baksetball analyst for cbs or something.

[wetwillie]

hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.

pffft.  Like a guy who's never been a head coach or assistant coach at any level can just come in and win in the big12.  Hoiberg would have been better off being a college baksetball analyst for cbs or something.

GAH!

[Powercat Posse]

The 3 games our D has looked poor is the 2 games vs Isu and this last game vs KU.
 
Those 3 games = 51.0% 2pt shots.   Other 8 games = 47.6% 2pt shots.   Somewhat close
Those 3 games = Allowed 23.3 3Pt shots  and 44.3% per game.    Other 8 games = Allowed 10.9 3Pt shots  and 28.7%per game

In the 8 games where our D was good or decent, each game we allowed under 30% of the shots to be from 3pt land
In those 3 games where our D was poor, each one we allowed over 35% of the shots to be from 3... and they hit 44% of them

I know Isu is 2nd best 3pt shooting team in the conference, but interesting when we keep our opp. 3PA down, they shoot a poor %

[mocat]

hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.

pffft.  Like a guy who's never been a head coach or assistant coach at any level can just come in and win in the big12.  Hoiberg would have been better off being a college baksetball analyst for cbs or something.

elite post

[SleepFighter]

The 3 games our D has looked poor is the 2 games vs Isu and this last game vs KU.
 
Those 3 games = 51.0% 2pt shots.   Other 8 games = 47.6% 2pt shots.   Somewhat close
Those 3 games = Allowed 23.3 3Pt shots  and 44.3% per game.    Other 8 games = Allowed 10.9 3Pt shots  and 28.7%per game

In the 8 games where our D was good or decent, each game we allowed under 30% of the shots to be from 3pt land
In those 3 games where our D was poor, each one we allowed over 35% of the shots to be from 3... and they hit 44% of them

I know Isu is 2nd best 3pt shooting team in the conference, but interesting when we keep our opp. 3PA down, they shoot a poor %

We allowed Tech and West Virginia to score well over a point per possession.  We did okay against OSU at .97 ppp, but Texas, Baylor (x2),  Oklahoma, and TCU all did better.  TCU scored about .9 ppp which sounds okay until you realize that their median ppp on the year (not just conference play) is .86.

We have really only played better than average defense against OU and Texas.  We're just not a good defensive basketball team.

[Powercat Posse]

The 3 games our D has looked poor is the 2 games vs Isu and this last game vs KU.
 
Those 3 games = 51.0% 2pt shots.   Other 8 games = 47.6% 2pt shots.   Somewhat close
Those 3 games = Allowed 23.3 3Pt shots  and 44.3% per game.    Other 8 games = Allowed 10.9 3Pt shots  and 28.7%per game

In the 8 games where our D was good or decent, each game we allowed under 30% of the shots to be from 3pt land
In those 3 games where our D was poor, each one we allowed over 35% of the shots to be from 3... and they hit 44% of them

I know Isu is 2nd best 3pt shooting team in the conference, but interesting when we keep our opp. 3PA down, they shoot a poor %

We allowed Tech and West Virginia to score well over a point per possession.  We did okay against OSU at .97 ppp, but Texas, Baylor (x2),  Oklahoma, and TCU all did better.  TCU scored about .9 ppp which sounds okay until you realize that their median ppp on the year (not just conference play) is .86.

We have really only played better than average defense against OU and Texas.  We're just not a good defensive basketball team.

Yeah,  cant say the WV and Tech games were decent. They were not great, but dont think they were awful. 
 Holding Osu to under 45% eFG, under 1.00ppp, and allowing them to only grab 5 ORs ...... will take anyday
TCU game .... meh,  They had 44 pts with 4 min to play and we cleared the bench.   I cant complain.

[SleepFighter]

There is no point in calling a defense good or bad without making comparisons.  And in comparison to other Big 12 teams, K-State does not play good defense.

[kso_FAN]

The concerns about our defense have been noted and are legitimate.

Can the Cats continue to win with a high rate of offensive efficiency? Will the defensive efficiency improve as K-State plays a stretch against some of the bad offenses in the league?

[Mr Bread]

Hey _FAN do you know what KenPom's AdjO takes into account?  I notice you don't use that number in your charts (which are rough ridin' fantastic by the way), and I was just curious why. 

[kso_FAN]

Hey _FAN do you know what KenPom's AdjO takes into account?  I notice you don't use that number in your charts (which are rough ridin' fantastic by the way), and I was just curious why. 

Here is kenpom's explanation:
Adjusted efficiency: Raw offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 offensive possessions. The adjusted version adjusts for the quality of opposing defenses, the site of each game, and when each game was played (recent games get more weight).

I decided to go with the raw numbers, in part due to the fact that none of the other numbers are adjusted based on those same variables. Plus, as the season plays out, the raw numbers pretty much even out to kenpom's adjusted numbers anyway.