2013 Season Big 12 Efficiency and Four Factors (regular season adv stats)

[Mr Bread]

Hey _FAN do you know what KenPom's AdjO takes into account?  I notice you don't use that number in your charts (which are rough ridin' fantastic by the way), and I was just curious why. 

Here is kenpom's explanation:
Adjusted efficiency: Raw offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 offensive possessions. The adjusted version adjusts for the quality of opposing defenses, the site of each game, and when each game was played (recent games get more weight).

I decided to go with the raw numbers, in part due to the fact that none of the other numbers are adjusted based on those same variables. Plus, as the season plays out, the raw numbers pretty much even out to kenpom's adjusted numbers anyway.

Thanks.

[Powercat Posse]

The concerns about our defense have been noted and are legitimate.

Can the Cats continue to win with a high rate of offensive efficiency? Will the defensive efficiency improve as K-State plays a stretch against some of the bad offenses in the league?

Let's hope the Def Eff is better in our remaining home games for sure. And it should be.   TCU and Tech are bad.
Baylor in road games at KU, Osu and Isu scored below a 1.00ppp in each game and shot 41.4% FG combined in those 3
WV in  road games at Tex, Isu, Osu and Baylor..... only averaged .94 ppp and 44.2%

[kso_FAN]

Only 1/3 of the Big 12 season is left!

[kso_FAN]

Its clear that our plan (hope) to win games is to be the team that "our scores" opponents, meaning that teams in general are going to have decent to good success scoring out of their offense. The key is that we do force them to waste many more possessions than we do (as I discussed earlier in the thread), and we have to have those because teams will shoot decently against us.

In our 12 conference games, half the time teams have performed better than their offensive PPP from the chart, and half have been worse. Only once on the road have we forced a team below their offensive PPP, @OU. And only 3 times have teams scored fewer than 1.0 PPP, UT, @TCU, and @Tech. TCU and Tech still performed better than their offensive PPP on average though.

And eFG% defense is even worse; only 3 times have teams shot worse than their ave eFG% against us; @OU, OSU, and UT. Teams shoot 2.5% better against us than their ave eFG% per game in our 12 league games.

Again, the question becomes can we continue to win with our shooting, especially 3PT%, forcing TOs while not turning over (Bo-sketball), all while giving up pretty average numbers in PPP and eFG%. I think its good enough to go 4-2 to finish out the year, it will take better defensive performances though to win in Waco and Stillwater.

[Mixed-Nutz]

A lot of our numbers are going to get juiced because the remaining schedule. Just having TCU, TECH and WVU at home will do some magic.

[sys]

turnover cats.

[Powercat Posse]

Yes our Defense on the road has to be better from here on out.   

At home, 5 of the 6 games we have held our opp to 1.00 or below.    Only game where our D not playing well put us in a little jeopardy was the Isu game (where they got 1.13) and us having a great game on offense got us through that game

The Def eFG% has only been 50.5 at home, but us forcing 25.6 TO% and having a difference of +10.8 on TO% is fantastic. 

TO% Difference on the road is basicly 0 (we have 67 TOs to our opp 68).   I think we can win 2 of these 3 roads, but breaking even in TO% difference and letting our opp shoot 50% or better isnt gonna do it

[FuzzyWuzzy]

would it be a fair one sentence assessment to say that we play consistently bad post defense, which we can usually overcome with TO ratio and offensive efficiency, and have been victimized at times when facing above-average guard play(Burke&Hardaway, McLemore&Co, and Iowa State when they make everything)?

[kso_FAN]

[Mr Bread]

Where do you get your four factors data from?

[kso_FAN]

Where do you get your four factors data from?

kenpom, but statsheet has the same stuff.

Would you like me to make you a special edition big 10 edition? It is a snow day.

[Mr Bread]

Where do you get your four factors data from?

kenpom, but statsheet has the same stuff.

Would you like me to make you a special edition big 10 edition? It is a snow day.

Oh man, _FAN.   That would great.  I'm starting to get into advanced stats.  The fever, I have it. 

[kso_FAN]

Happy Snow Day Mr. Bread.

[WillieWatanabe]

Indiana. Good grief.

[kso_FAN]

Feel free to share with your Illini brethren. And you know what they say, once you go advanced you won't go back.

[Mr Bread]

Thanks _FAN.  You're the best.

[Mr Bread]

I would not have guessed that the fighting breads were dead last in the conference at getting to the free throw line.  My word.  Everything else jives with what my eyes have seen. 

[kso_FAN]

I would not have guessed that the fighting breads were dead last in the conference at getting to the free throw line.  My word.  Everything else jives with what my eyes have seen. 

It is interesting how similar the Breads are to the Bruces, except for offensive eFG%.

[Stevesie60]

Indiana. Good grief.

Yeah. I was telling someone after they won in East Lansing that they should be #1 with a big gap between them and #2. Glad that the stats back up my position.

[kso_FAN]

Indiana. Good grief.

Yeah. I was telling someone after they won in East Lansing that they should be #1 with a big gap between them and #2. Glad that the stats back up my position.

Likely Final 4 team.

Gasaway did an ESPN blog earlier in the year talking about the average PPP scoring margin differential in Final 4 teams (past 7 seasons), and the average has been +.13 in their league games the last . UConn was the big exception with a differential of only +.01 in Big East games a couple years ago.

I did further research and found the average differential for Elite 8 teams was +.11 over the last 3 seasons.

[Stevesie60]

Indiana. Good grief.

Yeah. I was telling someone after they won in East Lansing that they should be #1 with a big gap between them and #2. Glad that the stats back up my position.

Likely Final 4 team.

Gasaway did an ESPN blog earlier in the year talking about the average PPP scoring margin differential in Final 4 teams (past 7 seasons), and the average has been +.13 in their league games the last . UConn was the big exception with a differential of only +.01 in Big East games a couple years ago.

I did further research and found the average differential for Elite 8 teams was +.11 over the last 3 seasons.

The average is great, but what's the range on that? Are there some down near +.05 or are they all about .08-.15?

[kso_FAN]

The top PPP differential teams (conference games only) as of last Tuesday (from Gasaway's Tuesday Truths):

Florida         0.36
Indiana        0.21
Memphis            0.21
Miami    0.19
Southern Miss       0.17
Louisville   0.15
Saint Louis        0.15
Colorado St.       0.15
VCU          0.14
Wichita St.        0.14
Creighton       0.14
Michigan   0.13
Virginia    0.12
Kansas              0.12
Duke         0.11
Oklahoma St.         0.11
Syracuse   0.11
Michigan St.        0.11
Baylor               0.10
Pitt     0.10
Missouri             0.10
Kansas St.          0.09
Iowa St.             0.09
Georgetown     0.09
Arizona       0.06

[kso_FAN]

The average is great, but what's the range on that? Are there some down near +.05 or are they all about .08-.15?

Here is the entire list (last 3 years Elite 8 teams):

UK   0.26
Butler   0.20
Duke   0.18
KU   0.18
NC   0.17
KU   0.17
OSU   0.16
Syr   0.15
UK   0.14
UF   0.12
UK   0.12
WVU   0.12
NC   0.11
Butler   0.09
KSU   0.09
BU   0.09
BU   0.07
MSU   0.07
UF   0.06
VCU   0.06
Ari   0.06
UT   0.04
Lou   0.03
Uconn   0.01

[Stevesie60]

Is one of the BU's supposed to be Butler?

[kso_FAN]

Is one of the BU's supposed to be Butler?

Yes, the really good Bulter was the one we played.