Author Topic: 2013 Season Big 12 Efficiency and Four Factors (regular season adv stats) (Read 24281 times)

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #75 on:** February 04, 2013, 05:39:16 PM »

Def eFG% is gonna be worse in conf games compared to noncon games.

We are at 48.1 Def FG% right now in B12 games. Last 2 yrs we were at 48.4 each year

and FAN mentioned that our opp. are scoring 13.4 pts from FTs this year. Last 2 years, we gave up an ave of 16.6 pts from the FT line

So 3.2 less points from the FT line and basicly the same Def FG%

SleepFighter · « **Reply #76 on:** February 04, 2013, 09:17:07 PM »

Sure, that's what makes sense, but you'd also think that offensive eFG% would go down, and offensive to% would go up. But you'd be wrong, at least so far.

We are having a strange year, no matter how you look at it.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #77 on:** February 05, 2013, 09:19:22 AM »

Quote from: Powercat Posse on February 04, 2013, 02:53:12 PM

Yes, TOs and TO% are a big strength for this team. We had one game when we werent real good and that was WV where we had 14 TOs and it was he only game when our TO% was 20 or higher. The other 7 games, we are only ave 9.3 TOs

We've had one Big 12 game with a negative TO% differential and that was at ISU. Granted, we also lost eFG%, OR%, and FT rate in that game. But for this team TO% is the most important stat out there.

I don't put a lot of stock into 3PT% defense because its hard to control. However, 3PTA/FGA is important, and we are first in this in Big 12 play, only allowing 25% of our opponents shot attempts to be 3s.

kenpom had a nice blog post about this in December. The stats show teams have about as much control over opponents' 3PT% as they do opponents' FT%.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #78 on:** February 05, 2013, 12:58:53 PM »

Yeah that makes since. I agree 3pt% defense isn't real important unless u combine it with how many 3pt shots u allow the other team to take or make. Taking out the Isu game, we have only allowed 22 made 3s in 7 games. That's very good ( and if our 3pt Def in those 7 gms was 35% compared to 29%....it wouldnt meen a whole lot.)

MakeItRain · « **Reply #79 on:** February 05, 2013, 04:53:14 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 05, 2013, 09:19:22 AM

I don't put a lot of stock into 3PT% defense because its hard to control. However, 3PTA/FGA is important, and we are first in this in Big 12 play, only allowing 25% of our opponents shot attempts to be 3s.

Truth. I feel like we had a long thread about this either last year or the year before.

SwiftCat · « **Reply #80 on:** February 05, 2013, 05:47:36 PM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on February 05, 2013, 04:53:14 PM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 05, 2013, 09:19:22 AM
I don't put a lot of stock into 3PT% defense because its hard to control. However, 3PTA/FGA is important, and we are first in this in Big 12 play, only allowing 25% of our opponents shot attempts to be 3s.

Truth. I feel like we had a long thread about this either last year or the year before.

Yeah. We did. I think it was just after KenPom posted that article

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #81 on:** February 06, 2013, 12:56:28 AM »

So Efficiency and eFG% -- Wanted to do a comparison of Frank's teams compared to this team (since its halfway thru conf yr)

For offense, i am gonna use us scoring 1.05 ppp or better, and then us shooting 50% or better (Conf games only)
For defense, i am gonna use us allowing 1.00 ppp or under, and then us allowing under 50%

We had pretty good success when we accomplished these things. (under Frank)
*When we shot 50% or better, we were 31-5
* When we got 1.05 ppp or better, we were 38-7
* When we held our opp to under 50%, we were 32-8
* When we hold our opp to 1.00 ppp or under, we were 31-5

Year --------------Off 50% or better --- 1.05 ppp or better --- Def under 50% --- Def 1.00 ppp or under

2013 (9 gms) 7 7 5 6
2012 (18 gms) 9 8 9 9
2011 (16 gms) 7 8 11 8
2010 (16 gms) 7 10 8 7
2009 (16 gms) 3 7 7 6
2008 (16 gms) 10 12 5 6

Best season for shooting 50% was 2008 (10 of 16 games). 7 of 9 this year
Best season for ppp 1.05 or better was 2008 (12 of 16). 7 of 9 this year
Best season for Def under 50% was 2011 (11 of 16). 5 of 9 this year
Best season for Def ppp 1.00 or under was 10' (8/16) and 11' (9/18). 6 for 9 this year

Offense --- we knew this was our best production year, but defense the production has been pretty good as well.
Of the 4 times we failed to hold our opp to under 50% this season..... twice the opp was right at 50.0%

kso_FAN · « **Reply #82 on:** February 06, 2013, 07:10:13 AM »

Quote from: SwiftCat on February 05, 2013, 05:47:36 PM

Quote from: MakeItRain on February 05, 2013, 04:53:14 PM
Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 05, 2013, 09:19:22 AM
I don't put a lot of stock into 3PT% defense because its hard to control. However, 3PTA/FGA is important, and we are first in this in Big 12 play, only allowing 25% of our opponents shot attempts to be 3s.

Truth. I feel like we had a long thread about this either last year or the year before.

Yeah. We did. I think it was just after KenPom posted that article

That was a new article, but last February kenpom did a series of really good articles on 3PT "defense". http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=19200.0

kso_FAN · « **Reply #83 on:** February 06, 2013, 11:34:57 AM »

Full charts will be updated tomorrow, after tonight's games, but the separation in the league continues to be clear. Here is the current (including games from last night and Monday) differential between offensive and defensive efficiency for league games (or per possession scoring margin). OU has slipped down to join WVU in the middle while the Top 5 are pretty much deadlocked.

Team   EFF Diff
Kansas State   0.11
Kansas   0.11
Baylor   0.11
Iowa State   0.09
Oklahoma State   0.09
West Virginia   0.01
Oklahoma   0.01
Texas   -0.06
Texas Tech   -0.22
TCU   -0.26

Also, Gasaway had a post yesterday at ESPN.com about national championship contenders (his were Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Miami, Louisville, Duke, Gonzaga) for this year using per possession scoring margin as a main indicator.:

Quote

If history is any indication, there's a good chance the 2013 national champion will come from a group of only seven teams.

How can I be so certain? That's where the Eliminator comes in -- my recurring column where I assess the relative merits of the national title contenders. There are two key pieces of information that I'll be working from here at Eliminator HQ:

1. Over the past seven seasons, the average per-possession scoring margin of a major-conference team that reaches the Final Four has been +0.13 in league play.

2. Someone forgot to share that information with Connecticut in 2010-11, because the Huskies reached the Final Four and won the national championship after outscoring the Big East by just 0.01 points per possession.

He did add this concerning KU.

Quote

Pretenders

Kansas Jayhawks (+0.11)
Aren't the Jayhawks 19-2? Yes, and the Eliminator isn't proclaiming irrevocable doom on Bill Self's team -- there's still basketball left to be played -- but the fact that KU (+0.11) is screened out by our rule as of early February does flag a teachable point. On a per-possession basis, this has not been your garden-variety dominant Kansas team. In the past five seasons, the Jayhawks' offense has posted the following ranks in Big 12 play: 1, 2, 1, 1 and 2. (That really was a great offense Missouri had last season.) Defense? Looks pretty similar: 1, 1, 1, 2 and 1.

This season, however, Self's men rank No. 4 in the Big 12 on offense in conference play, and No. 2 on D. Again, the season is young, and the Jayhawks' numbers will certainly improve after a couple of upcoming games against hapless and stat-inflating TCU. But until now KU's record is better than its per-possession performance has been, a point that I assure you is not lost on Self and his staff.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #84 on:** February 06, 2013, 01:48:09 PM »

We've talked about the 3PTA% for the defense, but Luke Winn's power rankings (Winn is the BITB of national media who use ADV stats) this week had an interesting chart about Florida, and a team's offensive reliance on shooting 3s.

So far we are at 35.9% 3PTA% (and making 37.5%) in Big 12 games which I can live with. This goes back to my earlier post about beating KU (or good teams) and my 35-35-35 barometer. I don't mind an occasional game where we get near 40% on 3PTA%, but we're better off in the mid 30s, making them in the mid 30s, and rebounding our misses in the mid 30s. All while keeping our TOs in the mid teens while shooting near 50% (we're at 48.8% in Big 12 games) on 2s.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #85 on:** February 06, 2013, 02:26:26 PM »

Interesting. Off a quick glance it looks like the only 2 games the whole season we were 40% or higher on 3PA was the OU and KU at home.
10-24 (48% 3PA) vs OU. 9-30 (53%) vs KU. No doubt the KU game we fell in love with the 3 to much.

Not sure what the stats are , but if you are gonna shoot 40% 3PA, then u better be making 40% of those 3pt you shoot.
We won the game we made 40%. Lost the game we didnt

kso_FAN · « **Reply #86 on:** February 06, 2013, 02:38:35 PM »

You could make a good argument that shooting only .407 on 2s was worse for us than shooting .300 on 3s.

If 50% is your standard on 2s, then standard for on 3s is .333. The simple math shows making 1/3 of your 3s is the same (scoring-wise) as making 1/2 of your 2s.

mcmwcat · « **Reply #87 on:** February 06, 2013, 02:47:51 PM »

hopefully Powercat Posse was using efg when talking about 50%

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #88 on:** February 06, 2013, 02:52:46 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 06, 2013, 02:38:35 PM

You could make a good argument that shooting only .407 on 2s was worse for us than shooting .300 on 3s.

If 50% is your standard on 2s, then standard for on 3s is .333. The simple math shows making 1/3 of your 3s is the same (scoring-wise) as making 1/2 of your 2s.

Not a good combo when you are shooting 40% and 30% on 2pt/3pt. It was costly vs KU. Somehow we escaped when we did it down in Norman -- 40% and 31% on 2pt/3pt

Quote from: mcmwcat on February 06, 2013, 02:47:51 PM

hopefully Powercat Posse was using efg when talking about 50%

Yes, i was using 50% eFG in my comparison in above post

kso_FAN · « **Reply #89 on:** February 07, 2013, 07:13:31 AM »

Oh man...

kso_FAN · « **Reply #90 on:** February 07, 2013, 10:39:21 AM »

Self's worst shooting team (eFG%, Big 12 games) at KU previous to this season was his first season at 51.5%.

SwiftCat · « **Reply #91 on:** February 07, 2013, 02:00:10 PM »

TCU is so bad.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #92 on:** February 07, 2013, 02:26:28 PM »

After losing to Gonzaga, who would have thought halfway thru the Big 12 schedule, Kstate would be 1st in Eff. Diff. (+11)

MakeItRain · « **Reply #93 on:** February 08, 2013, 01:02:41 AM »

I'm amazed at how many more possessions OSU gets than us. They are playing in all of these close games, if they improve their offensive efficiency even a little bit they might become a runaway train. There is no hope that our offensive FTr will show any significant progress, there isn't any reason why we can't improve defensively though, that margin is inexcusable for any team with aspirations on doing anything memorable.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #94 on:** February 08, 2013, 08:09:47 AM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on February 08, 2013, 01:02:41 AM

I'm amazed at how many more possessions OSU gets than us. They are playing in all of these close games, if they improve their offensive efficiency even a little bit they might become a runaway train. There is no hope that our offensive FTr will show any significant progress, there isn't any reason why we can't improve defensively though, that margin is inexcusable for any team with aspirations on doing anything memorable.

After watching OSU run offense against us and Baylor, I'm not sure how much better they can shoot. They have talent, and will have games like they had in Lawrence, but they are also prone to getting into Ford's "do whatever the heck you want mode and chuck it on offense", which is essentially what happened when they went from up 13 to up 1 in just over 3 minutes.

I agree on our FT rate. I don't see ours getting a lot better, but defensively we've got to get better at not sending teams to the line. 2/3 of our Big 12 games opponents have had at least a 40% FT rate. Honestly the points we give up doesn't bother me as much as it effects our rotations because of foul trouble and oscar's strict 2 foul rule only compounds it.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #95 on:** February 08, 2013, 09:38:55 AM »

Big 12 SOS chart based on opponents' winning percentage for games each team has played and games remaining:

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #96 on:** February 08, 2013, 10:07:01 PM »

FWIW.... before their upset win in Lawrence, OK ST had lost 21 of last 22 road conf games under Mr Ford. Wont be stunned at all if they lose at Texas this weekend.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #97 on:** February 10, 2013, 07:58:35 AM »

Note: Last time I used kenpom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies because the raw data from spreadsheet wasn't available. This time I went back to the raw data which I usually use, so the efficiency differentials are a bit different because of that compared to the last chart.

catzacker · « **Reply #98 on:** February 10, 2013, 08:36:39 AM »

I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that. We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.

yosh · « **Reply #99 on:** February 10, 2013, 08:41:46 AM »

Quote from: catzacker on February 10, 2013, 08:36:39 AM

I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that. We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.

Of course you do. You wouldn't be Catzacker if you didn't.