Deciding factors for KSU-Oregon How BCS debate will play out if unbeaten Cats, Ducks compete for final spot
Updated: October 25, 2012, 9:22 AM ET
By Brad Edwards | ESPN Insider
If both K-State and Oregon finish undefeated, which team will be higher in the BCS standings?
Alabama and Florida hold the top two spots in the BCS standings, but because of the SEC championship game, we know they can't both finish undefeated. That means the real battle for the coveted No. 2 position at the end of the regular season is being fought over the No. 3 spot right now between the Kansas State Wildcats and Oregon Ducks.
After last season's Alabama-LSU BCS title game, I understand why some college football fans are still worried about the possibility of unbeaten Crimson Tide and Gators teams playing a classic SEC championship, and the loser not falling out of the BCS top two. Trust me, that's not going to happen if the Big 12 or Pac-12 has a team with a perfect record.
So, let's turn our attention to what might transpire if the SEC champ is undefeated along with the Wildcats and Ducks. Here is a look at the potential deciding factors.
Oregon's advantageDespite KSU's narrow edge in this week's standings (by .015 over UO), it's Oregon that currently sits in the more favorable position. The Harris and coaches' polls account for two-thirds of the BCS equation, and the Ducks are getting almost all of the second-place votes behind Alabama in both polls, while Kansas State is ranked fourth in both. In the other third of the equation, the computers currently consider K-State to be the second-best team in the nation, with Oregon being sixth-best.
It will be far easier for Oregon to gain significant ground in the computers than it will be for Kansas State to do so in the polls. The Ducks' schedule is back-loaded with games against USC, Stanford, Oregon State (and possibly USC again in the Pac-12 title game), so their schedule strength will improve, and two teams currently ranked ahead of them in the computers are guaranteed to lose in the scenario we're discussing (Oregon State and either Florida or Alabama). There's also a chance that Notre Dame, a 10-point underdog at Oklahoma, could lose this week, which would further clear Oregon's path to rise in the computers.
But as much as Ducks fans might enjoy the instant computer payoff from a Notre Dame loss this Saturday, it would be far better for Oregon if the Irish beat Oklahoma and don't lose until meeting USC at the end of the schedule. Nothing would help Kansas State's profile more than the Sooners finishing 11-1, especially if OU is winning in dominant fashion. By the same logic, anything that makes USC look stronger is only going to give more value to the Ducks' win(s) over the Trojans.
Oregon's concernOutside of their head-to-head matchups, Oregon needs USC to keep winning this season.
But because the strength of Oregon's schedule is hitched to USC, it will hurt the Ducks if the Trojans lose another game to anyone else. Notre Dame winning at the Coliseum on Nov. 24 wouldn't be good, because USC then would enter the Pac-12 title game with little momentum, but it would be far worse for Oregon if the Trojans lose to either of the Arizona schools. A loss to Arizona State could cost USC the South division of the Pac-12 and give the Ducks a no-win situation in the conference title game against an ASU team they have already humiliated.
A loss for USC at Arizona this weekend might be the worst case, however, because it would kill most of the big-game feel for Oregon's Nov. 3 trip to L.A., and adding insult to injury, it would slightly help the Big 12 in the computers by making one of the conference's three non-league losses (Oklahoma State at Arizona) look a little better.
In similar fashion, Oregon needs Oregon State to keep winning and make that Thanksgiving weekend matchup in Corvallis a national spectacle. If the Beavers drop a couple of games before then and USC doesn't take care of its business, the Ducks could dominate all their opponents and still come up noticeably short against Kansas State on the résumé test. With that in mind, the worst-case scenario for Oregon this weekend would be for OSU to lose at Washington, USC to lose at Arizona, Oklahoma to beat Notre Dame and, obviously, K-State to beat Texas Tech.
Last season, Alabama was dominant in every game except for the loss to No. 1 LSU, winning by an average score of 39-9 with no win closer than 16 points. Yet, at the end of the regular season, some voters cited the number of quality wins (schedule strength) as a reason for putting once-beaten Oklahoma State ahead of the Tide on their ballots. Ultimately, that wasn't enough to help OSU overcome Alabama in the BCS race, but there's no guarantee it wouldn't be enough to help boost Kansas State over Oregon this season, if both finish undefeated.
Kansas State's computer edgeThe Big 12 is considered the strongest conference by the BCS computers, which means an undefeated Kansas State almost certainly would be ranked ahead of an undefeated Oregon in that third of the formula, even with Oregon having the opportunity to play one extra quality opponent in the conference championship game -- an opportunity KSU won't get. Because of this, the Wildcats don't need to pass Oregon in the polls by Dec. 2; they just need to close the gap in the points column.
Just how much that poll gap needs to be closed really depends on how big the KSU advantage is in the computers. Clearly, it won't stay as big as it is right now, but the important question is whether the Wildcats could finish ahead of an undefeated Alabama in some computers. Or whether a one-loss Florida or Oklahoma could be ranked ahead of an undefeated Oregon in a couple of computers.
The latter doesn't seem likely right now, but it all depends on how the Ducks' schedule strength holds up over the next several weeks. The more buffer teams there are between KSU and Oregon in the computers, the fewer points Kansas State would need to gain in the polls.
You can be sure both teams' public relations machines will be working overtime to present their best arguments for the No. 2 spot if the current BCS top four holds form into November. We'll read about Oregon's dominance on the field, Kansas State's schedule superiority and anything else that might sway a voter or two,
such as the story behind the contracted 2012 game between the Ducks and Wildcats being canceled. 
If you like this type of intrigue, enjoy it while you can, because these head-to-head battles won't be nearly as quantifiable once the four-team playoff begins. Drama like this is uniquely a product of the BCS.
