It's common knowledge if ND wins out, it really holds back Oregon in the computers. However, if ND loses it gets tricky. I crunched some numbers . Oregon is so far back in the Sagarin, this is going to be their throw away. Out of the remaining 5 computers, Florida is ahead of them in 3. The problem is, Florida's remaining schedule is crap in the computers with UL-L (comp average of 67.25), FCS Jacksonville St., and Florida State (comp average of 21).
Hold the human polls as is, ND loses, and Oregon jumps Florida in all 3 other computers - Oregon passes us.
Hold the human polls as is, ND loses, and Oregon jumps Florida in 2 or less of the other computers - We stay ahead of Oregon.
Here is the kicker - if ND loses, then Bama would be 1st in 5 of the 6 computers and we would be 1st in the other. If we took back 1st in 1 other computer, and even if Oregon passed Florida to have 3rd in all the computers, we would still be ahead of Oregon
I know this is alot of what-ifs, but I did it just to show how close it would be if you take ND out of the equation. The redistribution of small number of ND's 2nd and 3rd place votes in the human polls could swing it either way.