The Official Bracketology Thread

[kso_FAN]

Ervin's hate quote is great.

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article137940228.html

[#LIFE]

Ervin's hate quote is great.

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article137940228.html

Just read that. oscar's excuse making, loser attitude is now firmly ingrained in the players. It is absolutely pathetic that we have to keep going through this crap every single year. eff oscar and eff this team

[Powercat Posse]

UPDATE. 
Vandy locked up 1 of those 6 spots with their W over FLA.
I think Xavier is likely in.
I think KState and Wake are gonna be 2 of the 4 "Play-In"
The other 2 is a little uncertain. I'd probably give the edge to Rhode Island and then USC would be the very last team in

I feel our spot is pretty safe. Like 85%. I'd be surprised if we don't make it with how well we looked vs BU/WV last 2 days. 3-3 vs those 2 teams, and 2,3 pt losses to Ku. That should show Committee how well we perform against good competition

[MakeItRain]

I hope we don't have to play in one of the stupid play-in games. Those things shouldn't even exist.

Pretty big tell that you don't watch the first four, they are normally very good basketball games. Also what weirdo complains about more tournament basketball games? Weird.

This will be the first year I watch it.

Really? That's too bad, the games really are good, the atmosphere in UD Arena is also very good. I'd like to go some day.

[sys]

Ervin's hate quote is great.

what in the world.

[Trim]

There's not much that college hoops fans rally together more for than finding espnu or espnews on their cable provider and rooting like hell against kstatembb.

[MakeItRain]

Ervin's hate quote is great.

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article137940228.html

If there was any doubt about how the fans feel about oscar Brett Weber basketball, that end all speculation. I feel bad that these guys have to feel the animus aimed at their coach.

[kim carnes]

I hope we don't have to play in one of the stupid play-in games. Those things shouldn't even exist.

Pretty big tell that you don't watch the first four, they are normally very good basketball games. Also what weirdo complains about more tournament basketball games? Weird.

This will be the first year I watch it.

Really? That's too bad, the games really are good, the atmosphere in UD Arena is also very good. I'd like to go some day.

Yeah they're definitely not

[kso_FAN]

Ervin's hate quote is great.

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/article137940228.html

If there was any doubt about how the fans feel about oscar Brett Weber basketball, that end all speculation. I feel bad that these guys have to feel the animus aimed at their coach.

oscar should have used this sooner.

[kso_FAN]

This is a few days old, but interesting take from the fivethirtyeight people: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/

It points to ESPN's new Strength of Record in their BPI as a good indicator, which currently has us at #37: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/sort/sorrank/page/2/dir/asc/view/overview

I think that means according to the Sabin guy who wrote the fivethrityeight piece that we are in good shape.

[Joker]

“I know close doesn’t count, but we played Kansas, who people had No. 1 or No. 2, and we had a shot to beat them at their place. It was a tie score with a minute left at our place. We had some other close games.”

 

What did we do to deserve this?

[MakeItRain]

This is a few days old, but interesting take from the fivethirtyeight people: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-the-ncaa-bubble-heres-the-number-to-watch/

It points to ESPN's new Strength of Record in their BPI as a good indicator, which currently has us at #37: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/sort/sorrank/page/2/dir/asc/view/overview

I think that means according to the Sabin guy who wrote the fivethrityeight piece that we are in good shape.

I really hope that the committee doesn't use the BPI as a source of decision making. They intentionally conceal parts of their formula and other parts that they did disclose seem a bit iffy

There are a number of small details that we have in our methodology to make it reflective of a résumé for a tournament team -- these are pretty technical and many people won't be interested, so we won't go into detail, but we think they improve how the tool works.

On top of this, we decided to incorporate a little bit more information than the other power ranking systems use. In particular, we added a way of accounting for missing players.

If a team or its opponent is missing one of its most important players (determined by minutes per game) for a contest, that game is less important for ranking the teams compared to games in which both teams are at full strength.

ESPN's college football FPI uses recruiting rankings as a part of their formula.

[kso_FAN]

I really hope that the committee doesn't use the BPI as a source of decision making. They intentionally conceal parts of their formula and other parts that they did disclose seem a bit iffy

I agree with that, I think that all Sabin was saying is that the most consistent indicator that he's found for NCAA selection is the SOR part of BPI.

[Powercat Posse]

Thought I heard Committee does look at things like KenPom and perhaps BPI but they aren't big factors. I think RPI is more important than bpi to them

As of now, I got Ku with the overall  #2 seed, a 1in MW.
I got WV a 4, Isu a 5, OkSt a 10, and us in a play in game.
The fighting Brad's resume isn't as good as people perceive. They only have 6 Top 100 wins, went 1-8 vs Top 4 in Conference. We are their 4th best win. RPI is 41

[kso_FAN]

Thought I heard Committee does look at things like KenPom and perhaps BPI but they aren't big factors. I think RPI is more important than bpi to them

As of now, I got Ku with the overall  #2 seed, a 1in MW.
I got WV a 4, Isu a 5, OkSt a 10, and us in a play in game.
The fighting Brad's resume isn't as good as people perceive. They only have 6 Top 100 wins, went 1-8 vs Top 4 in Conference. We are their 4th best win. RPI is 41

Individually they may look at other metrics, but officially as a committee RPI is currently all they use. However, they met with a bunch of the metrics people earlier this year and a move to adding others is in the works for the future, but currently is not officially used.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2017/1/13/14264948/ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-process-rpi-advanced-stats

The only bad news? This meeting is taking place too late for any of this to affect the way the 2017 NCAA Tournament is seeded. Using an aggregate metric won't be an option to be part of the selection process until at least 2018.

[Powercat Posse]

Middle Tenn won their? league

More good bubble news

[Powercat Posse]

 So, I think teams 65-66 are KState and Wake.
Wake -
1) have 3 Top 50 wins, all in ACC. Lville is the only huge win
2) they went 4-10 vs ACC teams that will make NCAA.
3) they lost to Clemson twice and Cuse once.
4) They have a RPI 39, SOS 22. Solid.
5)Their 4th/5th best wins are at Charleston and Bucknell (RPI 60/63)
6) they went 10-10 vs ACC teams. 19-13 overall
7) they have no bad losses

I mean, I'm little biased, but I think our resume is better.
We went 3-3 vs 3 seed Baylor & 4 seed Huggy
Our 4th-6th best wins are at OKSt, at CSU, at TCU
We went 20-13.
Our RPI & SOS are weaker
We beat 3 Tourney teams away from home. Wake beat VTech

[Powercat Posse]

I think Rhode island will get in.

So the last team, #68 could be USC. Maybe

Usc-
1)24-9 record, 11-9 vs P12
2) of those 11 wins vs P12, 5 are to teams 200+ in RPI. 3 vs teams 101-200
3) they also beat Stanford and Colorado, 92 & 95 RPI
4) so 1 good P12 win, UCLA. 1 good NonCon W, SMU
5) 3rd & 4th best wins are BYU (65rpi) on neutral and at aTm (88).

[Powercat Posse]

So my Top 4 seeds. And for fun I will put them in regions..

 East      Midwest.      South.   West
_____________________________________
1. Nova     2. KU       3. UNC      4. Zags
8. Duke    7. Oregon  6. UK       5. AZ
9. Baylor.  10. Lville.   12. UCLA. 11. FSU
16. Fla.     15 N Dame 14 Butler.  13. WV

[gatoveintisiete]

So fun PP 

[Powercat Posse]

I got Virginia and Purdue as 17 and 18, but I gave edge to Fla at 16.  The other 15 teams,  I'd be shocked if any are not top 4 seeds.

I don't think Ksu would have made it if we lost to Baylor. I just don't. If we don't make it now.... I'm very disappointed.   We will likely be matched up with an equal of ours. Win that and play a 5/6 seed next game.

[Powercat Posse]

So the committee ranks every team.  From 2012-16, this is what happened with the final 4 teams..

3 years, the best 2 Play-in teams faced off. Then the 3rd took on the the 4th. Most times, this was like a 11 vs 11 and 12 vs 12.

However, 2 of those 5 years.... The best "last 4 in" team faced the #3.  And the 2 faced the 4.
Case in point, 2013.   The last 4 was the overall 45 vs 49 & 46 vs 50

So I have no idea who we would play in the " play in game"
My gut just tells me we will be an 11 seed. Not a 12. 

[420seriouscat69]

Some of the play in teams have been the best stories.

[BostonPancake]

Ever year since the play in round was expanded a play in team has advanced to the second round (32).

 

[kso_FAN]

Of course I'd like a higher seed, but it's nice for selection Sunday to be relevant again. Go Cats.