The Official Bracketology Thread

[kso_FAN]

Trying to simplify = lazy

Rpi = anacronistic


Develop an actual non-stupid computer model (bpi for starters) if you need a tool to crutch on.

The good thing is RPI is really only used to factor in the tiers. And to me, simply putting wins in categories of vs 1-50, 51-100, etc. is more lazy than accounting for where games are played like the tier systems do now.

My problem with the tier thing would be that it waters down really good wins.  A win at home against TCU shouldn't be anywhere near a win @Virginia.  I guess you have to draw the line somewhere in trying to simplify the process but I feel like road/neutral top 15 wins should be a tier of their own.

True, but the old system the top group was 1-50. I think when the committee looks at the individual team sheets, they do account for those that have really good wins like you are saying. In fact, I'd say that's why we are a 10 seed right now instead of an 8, because they look at our resume and see our lack of one of those really good wins. If we swap a road win at Baylor with a home win vs KU, I bet we are an 8 seed in any bracketology right now.

[michigancat]

The good thing is RPI is really only used to factor in the tiers.

Except isn't the performance against tiers is a primary tool used to rank/seed teams? So RPI is obviously still one of the most important stats for ranking teams, even if it's not used directly.

[kso_FAN]

The good thing is RPI is really only used to factor in the tiers.

Except isn't the performance against tiers is a primary tool used to rank/seed teams? So RPI is obviously still one of the most important stats for ranking teams, even if it's not used directly.

True. Indirectly its a primary tool. I do think if you made the tiers from another metric that they wouldn't look that much different.

[Powercat Posse]

My problem with the tier thing would be that it waters down really good wins.  A win at home against TCU shouldn't be anywhere near a win @Virginia.  I guess you have to draw the line somewhere in trying to simplify the process but I feel like road/neutral top 15 wins should be a tier of their own.

True, but the old system the top group was 1-50. I think when the committee looks at the individual team sheets, they do account for those that have really good wins like you are saying. In fact, I'd say that's why we are a 10 seed right now instead of an 8, because they look at our resume and see our lack of one of those really good wins. If we swap a road win at Baylor with a home win vs KU, I bet we are an 8 seed in any bracketology right now.
[/quote]




Absolutely. The wins in the Q1 are looped into one category, but the committee will look at each team and those wins.

Arizona St and Us both have 3 Q1 wins, but they won at Ku, Xavier on neutral court and at Utah. Much better than our 3 wins.     

I kind of touched on this a bit earlier.  If OU (36 RPI) had an RPI of 30 or 31, they don't downgrade our win vs them from a Q1 win vs a Q2 win.  It will show up on a grid or spreadsheet as either a Q1 or Q2 win.... But the committee will just see Win over OU and get us Value for that.   

[Powercat Posse]

Road wins are an emphasis for the committee just like Q1/Q2 wins.  The committee will really focus on the road wins vs good competition ( so once again the Q1/Q2 games). St Mary's is 10-1 on the road, but as a whole it is against bad competition.

St Mary's road wins by Tier:
Q1-1
Q2-1
Q3-3
Q4-5


Road wins vs Q1/Q2 is actually a strength for us.  We have 5.  Here is a look at the good road wins for teams in FAN's 8-10 seeds above =

Team - Q1/Q2 wins
Mizzou 2/3
Arkansas 1/2
Creighton 0/1
VTech 3/0
Butler 1/0
FSU 3/0
Nc St 2/0
OU 2/0
KState 2/3
Asu 2/0
SM 1/1
St Bony 2/1

So if both teams have 4/5 on Q1/Q2 wins overall.  Team A has 5 road Q1-Q2 wins. Team B only has 1.  It's gonna be an advantage for Team A.  It shows you can get Q1-Q2 wins on the road and not on your own home court

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

Any system that relies on rpi is worthless. It's the dumbest metric ever created.

Also, valuing November wins in parity with February wins is a large step in the wrong direction.

[sys]

osu not being on that list is a complete joke and travesty.

[MakeItRain]

osu not being on that list is a complete joke and travesty.

kso_FAN should probably take Nebraska and Penn State off as they have no chance to play themselves in at this point. They both also have worse resumes than OSU, the committee values those quality wins.

[Powercat Posse]

osu not being on that list is a complete joke and travesty.

kso_FAN should probably take Nebraska and Penn State off as they have no chance to play themselves in at this point. They both also have worse resumes than OSU, the committee values those quality wins.

Yeah, probably should add Ok St & Syracuse and get the Big Ten duo off the grid

[kso_FAN]

osu not being on that list is a complete joke and travesty.

kso_FAN should probably take Nebraska and Penn State off as they have no chance to play themselves in at this point. They both also have worse resumes than OSU, the committee values those quality wins.

I pondered that, but I went off of updated RPI, kp, and SOR from today. I take bracketmatrix and then tweak it based on the numbers I factor in. I see the case for OSU and wanted to bump them up, but there are too many variables that hurt them right now. Its almost a too little, too late scenario for them at the moment.

And again, the RPI as a team ranking system is really dumb. The RPI as a system to group teams is decent and using any other metric to group teams will get a similar result for tier games.

[kso_FAN]

bracketmatrix just updated, OSU is now in their last 4 out. I could change mine, but I'll wait.

[sys]

there are too many variables that hurt them right now.

like what?  they have 0 tier 3 losses, their tiers 1 and 2 records are comparable to teams considered safely in.  the only thing i can see that people are using against them is a poor non con sos, which is simply ridiculous.  they played good teams and beat good teams, if they did so more in january and february than november and december that should be a point in their favor, if anything.

[kso_FAN]

there are too many variables that hurt them right now.

like what?  they have 0 tier 3 losses, their tiers 1 and 2 records are comparable to teams considered safely in.  the only thing i can see that people are using against them is a poor non con sos, which is simply ridiculous.  they played good teams and beat good teams, if they did so more in january and february than november and december that should be a point in their favor, if anything.

True. I know RPI is supposed to be meaningless, but you look at that RPI in the 80s and it kind of jumps out at you. Of course, you also look at the number of quality wins and wonder how the RPI can still be in the 80s.

[sys]

it's rough ridin' bullshit, _fan.  that's what it is.

[mocat]

If the cows can knock off ou it will be a rough riding travesty if they get left out

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

Would be AMAZE if the Cows beat ku 3x this season.  Burrito Bill's head would implode.

[kslim]

I think the conference gets in 9 now. Teams are crumbling

[Powercat Posse]

I think the conference gets in 9 now. Teams are crumbling

I think we have 7 in right now.  If Texas can beat Isu, I think they can avoid being in the Dayton games.
Q1 wins over Bama/Butler plus 5 good wins in B12 (Tech, WV, Tcu, at OU, OU). An SOS of 17 also helps.

If Baylor or Osu don't win their 1st game in KC, I think the chances of making it are pretty low

[BIG APPLE CAT]

I think the conference gets in 9 now. Teams are crumbling

I think we have 7 in right now.  If Texas can beat Isu, I think they can avoid being in the Dayton games.
Q1 wins over Bama/Butler plus 5 good wins in B12 (Tech, WV, Tcu, at OU, OU). An SOS of 17 also helps.

If Baylor or Osu don't win their 1st game in KC, I think the chances of making it are pretty low

Didn't ESPN's BPI have Baylor as 99% chance to get in if they beat the cats Saturday but if they lost it dropped to like 83%? Seems like a long way to fall from 83% chance of getting in. That same metric also had the cats dropping to 42% chance of they had lost to Baylor so, take that fwiw.

[Powercat Posse]

Bracket Matrix -- 65 updated their projections after last night.   8 did not have KState in. 5 didn't have St Mary's in.   Our ave seed was 10.1 and SM was 9.8

Still pretty surprised 12% of them did not have us in.   Almost as surprising was St Mary's still ahead of us by the concensus.  St Mary's (who I currently have in Dayton) might be out if they at least don't beat 81 RPI Byu tommorrow in WCC semis.    28-4 teams normally don't get left out if their RPI is Top 50. But the 182 SOS and 3 Q1/Q2 wins just stick out. 

2016 St Mary's team went 26-5. Had RPI in top 40 with 140 SOS. Also 3 Q1-Q2 wins.  They didn't make it.    I want to see Big 12 get an 8th team, so I hope Byu can knock off St Mary's

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

What's our highest seed in the matrix?

[Justwin]

What's our highest seed in the matrix?

8 seed.

['taterblast]

Lunardi has us as a 10 vs 7 Seton Hall with a rematch vs 2 Cinci if we win

[kso_FAN]

Bracket Matrix updated yesterday afternoon again and bumped us to a 10. Baylor and USC the last 2 in. Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, and Oklahoma State the last 4 out.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[kso_FAN]

Update with Cows.