Post by: steve dave on October 01, 2021, 08:22:46 PM
it's wild that these people can trade on this stuff while Martha Stewart goes to jail for a year for whatever she did.
https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1444105344267874305
Post by: yoga-like_abana on October 01, 2021, 09:49:05 PM
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Post by: stunted on October 01, 2021, 11:51:15 PM
Gonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.
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dbt's going to secret bitcoin meetings and not telling us anything :shakesfist:
Post by: Spracne on October 02, 2021, 01:18:33 AM
Gonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
dbt's going to secret bitcoin meetings and not telling us anything :shakesfist:
Yeah, same, but this is steve dave's thread, so both of you need to quit yer Yellen.
Post by: yoga-like_abana on October 02, 2021, 07:40:35 AM
No need to go getting all political on meGonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.
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dbt's going to secret bitcoin meetings and not telling us anything :shakesfist:
Yeah, same, but this is steve dave's thread, so both of you need to quit yer Yellen.
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Post by: KITNfury on October 02, 2021, 09:00:53 AM
Gonna be honest I just want someone to tell me hey it’s time to buy a buttload of this and then when to unload as well.There are people that do that from what I understand
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Post by: steve dave on January 07, 2022, 08:03:55 AM
:sdeek:
Post by: Kat Kid on January 07, 2022, 08:26:41 AM
3.9% unemployment
:sdeek:
that is wild
I assume the revisions will still be big and these numbers are going to look less weird over time as they are revised.
Post by: slackcat on January 07, 2022, 08:32:45 AM
3.9% unemployment
:sdeek:
It''s still a hot hot jobs market and appears wages are up 4.7% YOY.
Post by: steve dave on January 07, 2022, 08:37:38 AM
3.9% unemployment
:sdeek:
It''s still a hot hot jobs market and appears wages are up 4.7% YOY.
there are 10.6m job openings as well. don't touch this economy, you'll burn the crap out of your finger.
Post by: Stupid Fitz on January 07, 2022, 08:43:53 AM
Post by: steve dave on January 12, 2022, 07:45:43 AM
:sdeek:
Post by: Cire on January 12, 2022, 08:03:11 AM
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Post by: Spracne on January 12, 2022, 11:40:05 AM
Post by: stunted on January 12, 2022, 11:57:00 AM
Post by: slackcat on January 21, 2022, 07:34:24 AM
Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2022, 07:34:06 AM
wages +0.7% month over month :eek:
Fed's going to drop the hammer
Post by: Kat Kid on February 04, 2022, 07:48:04 AM
Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2022, 07:48:42 AM
good news = bad news for stonks imo
oh for sure. stonks gonna stink. Fed hammer inbound.
Post by: Pete on February 04, 2022, 12:27:47 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2022, 12:32:49 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2022, 12:34:00 PM
Post by: LesterFreamon on February 04, 2022, 02:17:23 PM
Post by: Pete on February 04, 2022, 02:30:07 PM
Post by: Pete on February 04, 2022, 02:32:00 PM
Post by: Spracne on February 04, 2022, 02:32:15 PM
Post by: catastrophe on February 04, 2022, 02:35:49 PM
All that is to say, if you just want to sit back and grow your money, then I wouldn’t mess around with guessing and go with whatever low fee S&P 500 fund is available through your broker.
Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2022, 03:01:30 PM
So what do you guys read/how do you collect info and read up on stuff other than just having a knowledge of the markets and what not? I only hold about 3 positions in a Roth IRA. I have my retirement index funds thing. But how do y'all get knowledge and stuff? I'd like stuff to read as part of my daily routine. Like, right now, I make coffee, let my breakfast cook, get on the various sports sites and boards, check the lines on a few of my books, maybe read some local news...what can I throw in there to make bank and get bitches?
as you get older you'll find yourself with different interests and desires. part of that for me was caring less about sports and more about things like finding new and exciting ways to lose money. It's a real rush to see one of your positions rip 20% in a day bringing your total return to -50%. You can't replicate that with drugs or sex or sports or consistent 7% long term returns.
Post by: bucket on February 04, 2022, 03:23:13 PM
So what do you guys read/how do you collect info and read up on stuff other than just having a knowledge of the markets and what not? I only hold about 3 positions in a Roth IRA. I have my retirement index funds thing. But how do y'all get knowledge and stuff? I'd like stuff to read as part of my daily routine. Like, right now, I make coffee, let my breakfast cook, get on the various sports sites and boards, check the lines on a few of my books, maybe read some local news...what can I throw in there to make bank and get bitches?
as you get older you'll find yourself with different interests and desires. part of that for me was caring less about sports and more about things like finding new and exciting ways to lose money. It's a real rush to see one of your positions rip 20% in a day bringing your total return to -50%. You can't replicate that with drugs or sex or sports or consistent 7% long term returns.
The FB/AMZN rollercoaster ride was a wild one.
Post by: Kat Kid on February 04, 2022, 05:27:02 PM
So what do you guys read/how do you collect info and read up on stuff other than just having a knowledge of the markets and what not? I only hold about 3 positions in a Roth IRA. I have my retirement index funds thing. But how do y'all get knowledge and stuff? I'd like stuff to read as part of my daily routine. Like, right now, I make coffee, let my breakfast cook, get on the various sports sites and boards, check the lines on a few of my books, maybe read some local news...what can I throw in there to make bank and get bitches?I think two great books to read to find out if you are interested in this stuff are:
1) Morgan Housel’s excellent “Psychology of Money”
2) “How I invest my money” by Josh Brown and Brian Portnoy
There are a number of podcasts I listen to about Econ/the markets and you can watch CNBC for fun, but those two books will let you know if you want to know more or not.
I also pay a pretty exorbitant amount for a subscription to the financial times which is a newspaper that I think is one of the best in the world, talks to you like an adult and really clearly clues you in to what people that move markets think. I would get a subscription to that or the WSJ and if you like those then you are on your way. You will develop a general sense of ideas about macroeconomic trends, and then you will have some convictions and try to put them
In to practice with money.
Or you could just try to hop on Reddit/wsb and try to figure out what the hell people there are doing and ride a wave (this will not work well).
Or the simplest (and probably best advice) is just buy a few stocks of things you know. For most people this will skew heavily to consumer goods and tech, but guess what that is most of our economy. If you have any notions about players in your field, you can express a view by buying their stock or trying to figure out some emerging trend.
I look at it as a hobby and a mostly fulfilling one that has made me money (above s&p) 2/3 years I’ve done it. I don’t know if I will always do it, but for now it is fun.
Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2022, 09:10:31 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2022, 09:16:49 PM
Post by: sys on February 04, 2022, 09:31:01 PM
I also pay a pretty exorbitant amount for a subscription to the financial times which is a newspaper that I think is one of the best in the world, talks to you like an adult and really clearly clues you in to what people that move markets think. I would get a subscription to that or the WSJ.
dunno if it will help anyone make money, but i 2nd the eff out of this. ft is the best newspaper in the world.
Post by: CHONGS on February 04, 2022, 10:46:44 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2022, 11:59:20 PM
Post by: michigancat on February 05, 2022, 07:42:54 AM
Post by: catastrophe on February 05, 2022, 09:41:24 AM
Post by: Kat Kid on February 05, 2022, 11:36:15 AM
FT is $69/month??? Invest that instead!!!I get a discount.
Post by: steve dave on February 05, 2022, 11:57:42 AM
Post by: Kat Kid on February 10, 2022, 09:00:53 AM
Post by: Pete on February 10, 2022, 11:50:17 AM
Is 7.5% inflation good?
I vote no.
Post by: Justwin on February 10, 2022, 12:53:33 PM
The CME Fed Watch tool is saying a 98.4% chance of a 50 point hike. I hope the FOMC is able to admit they were wrong and tries to get ahead of inflation with a 50 point increase. I worry that they have a strong incrementalist desire, though, and will only do a 25 point hike.
Post by: KITNfury on February 10, 2022, 03:59:06 PM
Is 7.5% inflation good?"Somebody is always winning, somebody is always losing."
-me
Post by: Stupid Fitz on February 10, 2022, 04:04:16 PM
also lester, if you come in good faith for advice to this message board I swear you'll get better responses back in good faith and with good information than you'd get almost anywhere on the planet. this is irl a finely curated group of good, smart AF, successful people that somehow came out of KSU roots. hit up the investing thread and I'll teach you how to lose money like the best. that is my personal commitment to you.
This is so true. I mean, most of us act like a bunch of dumbasses and joke 99% of the time, but I get and have hopefully given some pretty good advice on a variety of topics. I prob wouldn't have predicted this back when I passed out at KJs.
Post by: Kat Kid on February 10, 2022, 06:25:02 PM
The Fed is so far behind the curve. They should have started increasing in quarter point increments two meetings ago and at the very least, raised the fed funds rate 25 points last meeting. Now we have to wait until the middle of March before they do anything
The CME Fed Watch tool is saying a 98.4% chance of a 50 point hike. I hope the FOMC is able to admit they were wrong and tries to get ahead of inflation with a 50 point increase. I worry that they have a strong incrementalist desire, though, and will only do a 25 point hike.
Do you think that they should have started tapering the asset purchases earlier? The part that is confusing to me as someone that is not an expert is why they are trying to raise rates 50 points before they even slowed the asset purchases.
Post by: sys on February 10, 2022, 06:43:57 PM
Is 7.5% inflation good?"Somebody is always winning, somebody is always losing."
-me
lol.
Post by: steve dave on February 10, 2022, 07:08:29 PM
https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1491934151880196155
Post by: wetwillie on February 10, 2022, 07:24:03 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 10, 2022, 07:51:23 PM
Steve Dave what’s going to happen when the fed does whatever people are worried they will do. Also how do I profit from it.It’s all smoke and mirrors. Gives people something to talk about.
But if you want to OT talk investing thread the NAS and S&P both have real gnarly head and shoulders charts going on. (if you talk to technical chart dorkstores that is not good).
Post by: Kat Kid on February 10, 2022, 07:52:14 PM
OMG
Post by: Justwin on February 11, 2022, 09:13:04 AM
The Fed is so far behind the curve. They should have started increasing in quarter point increments two meetings ago and at the very least, raised the fed funds rate 25 points last meeting. Now we have to wait until the middle of March before they do anything
The CME Fed Watch tool is saying a 98.4% chance of a 50 point hike. I hope the FOMC is able to admit they were wrong and tries to get ahead of inflation with a 50 point increase. I worry that they have a strong incrementalist desire, though, and will only do a 25 point hike.
Do you think that they should have started tapering the asset purchases earlier? The part that is confusing to me as someone that is not an expert is why they are trying to raise rates 50 points before they even slowed the asset purchases.
Yes, they should have started tapering earlier. I am a lot more hawkish than the average Fed governor/district bank president. I think they should have started tapering 6-9 months ago and started raising rates 3-6 months ago.
I don't think they should start raising the fed funds rate before they start tapering asset purchases, though I think they could start raising their target for the fed funds rate as they are winding down tapering. As it is, tapering should be complete in March, so there is no reason they couldn't have started increasing the target for the fed funds rate at the January meeting.
Post by: steve dave on April 01, 2022, 07:34:39 AM
thread
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1509871145897676810
Post by: bucket on April 01, 2022, 08:10:19 AM
Quote
April is historically the best of all months for the markets, up 15 out of every 16, according to veteran chartist Larry Williams. His research suggests the current market is in a good zone to go higher.
Let's keep the rally going!
Post by: Justwin on April 01, 2022, 11:13:43 AM
good numbers this morning. participation rate almost back to pre-covid. +431,000 jobs. 3.6% unemployment rate is lowest since Feb 2020. wage gains +5.6%.
thread
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1509871145897676810
Wage gains = 5.6%
Inflation = 7.9%
How is this good?
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on April 01, 2022, 01:17:52 PM
Post by: kim carnes on April 01, 2022, 01:50:12 PM
good numbers this morning. participation rate almost back to pre-covid. +431,000 jobs. 3.6% unemployment rate is lowest since Feb 2020. wage gains +5.6%.
thread
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1509871145897676810
Wage gains = 5.6%
Inflation = 7.9%
How is this good?
Inflation and every other negative economic thing that is happening is a byproduct of getting rid of the salt deduction
Post by: sys on April 01, 2022, 03:40:12 PM
Inflation and every other negative economic thing that is happening is a byproduct of getting rid of the salt deduction
worth it, imo.
Post by: Justwin on April 28, 2022, 05:17:09 PM
White hot economy.
Transitory inflation.
Post by: sys on April 29, 2022, 08:12:35 AM
Post by: Justwin on May 01, 2022, 02:05:27 PM
Quote
Inflation spurs record decline in workers' wages and benefits
White hot economy.
Post by: steve dave on June 10, 2022, 07:49:33 AM
Core inflation was up +0.6% in the month and +6.0% over the year.
:sdeek:
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/nrXif9YExO9EI/giphy.gif)
Post by: 420seriouscat69 on June 10, 2022, 07:58:12 AM
Post by: steve dave on June 10, 2022, 12:28:04 PM
Post by: steve dave on June 10, 2022, 12:37:55 PM
https://twitter.com/jturek18/status/1535313804455825408
Post by: Justwin on June 14, 2022, 11:54:52 AM
Current probabilities for rate hikes:
50 basis point hike: 3.9%
75 basis point hike: 96.1%
Post by: steve dave on June 14, 2022, 12:35:43 PM
Post by: Justwin on June 14, 2022, 01:32:46 PM
2.25-2.50%: 0.3%
2.50-2.75%: 10.3%
2.75-3.00%: 63.9%
3.00-3.25%: 25.5%.
The current target rate is 0.75-1.00%. The above percentages indicate three 75 basis point hikes is very much possible. The 2.75-3.00% range would be two 75 point hikes and one 50 point hike.
Post by: cfbandyman on June 14, 2022, 01:45:47 PM
How far back do you have to go to see wage growth outpacing inflation?
Like pre-1980s (just guessing)
Post by: Justwin on June 14, 2022, 02:07:12 PM
How far back do you have to go to see wage growth outpacing inflation?
Like pre-1980s (just guessing)
You don't have to go back anywhere close to that far for median usual real weekly earnings to outpace inflation.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q#0
Post by: steve dave on June 14, 2022, 04:21:03 PM
Post by: Justwin on June 14, 2022, 05:10:37 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220614/2a7e64f0f136ae4df6f45abe65c985a5.jpg)
I almost want inflation to get bad enough (but not really) to see a 100 basis point hike.
Post by: wiley on June 15, 2022, 05:35:44 PM
Missed it by a hair(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220614/2a7e64f0f136ae4df6f45abe65c985a5.jpg)
I almost want inflation to get bad enough (but not really) to see a 100 basis point hike.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: steve dave on June 15, 2022, 07:27:45 PM
next time to just flex
Post by: steve dave on July 08, 2022, 07:36:50 AM
Post by: Stupid Fitz on July 08, 2022, 08:23:30 AM
Jobs beat 372k v. 265k expected. Wage gains met at 5.1% v. 5.0% expected. Unemployment steady and fully employed at 3.6%. Certainly not recession'y numbers. GDP will probably show otherwise tho. Weird time we are living in.
Nothing really makes sense right now. :dunno:
Post by: Spracne on July 08, 2022, 01:52:22 PM
Post by: sys on July 08, 2022, 02:14:35 PM
Post by: steve dave on July 08, 2022, 02:54:09 PM
my pet hypothesis is that some of that pandemic productivity gains were just unsustainably not doing stuff and now some of the job growth wo gdp growth is having to hire people to do that stuff again.That makes a lot of sense tbh
https://twitter.com/lizannsonders/status/1545388088477859842
Post by: steve dave on July 08, 2022, 02:54:54 PM
This financial advisor guy who keeps calling me every few months and I keep telling him I'm not interested called me yesterday and said he thinks we're headed for a depression, not a recession. I don't really think he's very smart, though, so take it FWIW.Yeah, from the extremely limited amount of information I have about him I’m 100% certain he’s not very smart.
Post by: steve dave on July 12, 2022, 12:38:44 PM
https://twitter.com/wertwhile/status/1546908996493254663
Post by: Stupid Fitz on July 12, 2022, 01:45:01 PM
This financial advisor guy who keeps calling me every few months and I keep telling him I'm not interested called me yesterday and said he thinks we're headed for a depression, not a recession. I don't really think he's very smart, though, so take it FWIW.
I'm not a very good sales person, but i'm not sure its a great strategy for an FA to tell people he/she wants money from that they will lose all of said money very soon if they give it to him/her.
Post by: steve dave on July 12, 2022, 02:09:39 PM
Inflation gtfoomf
https://twitter.com/wertwhile/status/1546908996493254663
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1546854653379371009
Post by: Kat Kid on July 12, 2022, 03:26:02 PM
Post by: bucket on July 12, 2022, 03:31:57 PM
I am going to be buying the dip on oil.
stevedave's guy, Jim Cramer said this was the best hedge for tech so I was thinking about doing the same. I didn't realize how much oil prices had fallen over the last month.
Post by: sys on July 12, 2022, 03:36:48 PM
I am going to be buying the dip on oil.
i think that will work well for you.
Post by: Justwin on July 12, 2022, 03:43:04 PM
Post by: steve dave on July 12, 2022, 03:48:42 PM
Fireworks sales were down roughly 15-20% this year from 2021. People are pulling back and are being more cautious in the face of uncertainty. I have upped my chances of a recession by the end of 2023 to 50%.
:thumbs:
Post by: steve dave on July 12, 2022, 03:50:46 PM
I am going to be buying the dip on oil.
stevedave's guy, Jim Cramer said this was the best hedge for tech so I was thinking about doing the same. I didn't realize how much oil prices had fallen over the last month.
he's like the opposite of my guy but I know what you mean
Post by: steve dave on July 13, 2022, 07:28:31 AM
Post by: steve dave on July 13, 2022, 07:31:04 AM
Post by: steve dave on July 13, 2022, 07:31:35 AM
I think maybe the new record in my lifetime. Let’s get to 10% next month!
Post by: michigancat on July 13, 2022, 07:32:43 AM
Fireworks sales were down roughly 15-20% this year from 2021. People are pulling back and are being more cautious in the face of uncertainty. I have upped my chances of a recession by the end of 2023 to 50%.Way more people are traveling
Post by: michigancat on July 13, 2022, 07:46:00 AM
9.1% yoy !!!!Great squawk box segment as a result! Santelli had steam coming out of his ears!
I think maybe the new record in my lifetime. Let’s get to 10% next month!
Post by: steve dave on July 13, 2022, 09:44:56 AM
Post by: Justwin on July 13, 2022, 09:52:05 AM
Fireworks sales were down roughly 15-20% this year from 2021. People are pulling back and are being more cautious in the face of uncertainty. I have upped my chances of a recession by the end of 2023 to 50%.Way more people are traveling
That is a part of it.
Higher transportation costs (gas, diesel, airfare) are a bigger part of it. The out of control inflation is using up a lot of people's discretionary income and putting a lot of people on edge.
Post by: Katpappy on July 14, 2022, 06:04:58 AM
Post by: Justwin on July 14, 2022, 09:11:17 AM
Post by: steve dave on July 14, 2022, 09:26:20 AM
CME Fed Watch probability for a 100 bp hike is currently 83.3%.We did it folks
Post by: Spracne on July 19, 2022, 03:10:20 PM
Post by: Kat Kid on July 19, 2022, 04:24:25 PM
I feel like investing in a company that manufactures A/C units, probably split units, and that has distribution channels in Europe would be a good bet at the moment. Anyone know of companies in this space?
mitsubishi/panasonic/hitachi
ELUXY
Post by: steve dave on July 28, 2022, 07:22:19 AM
:excited:
Post by: steve dave on July 28, 2022, 07:32:20 AM
initial jobless claims 256K which is a shade higher than estimate. previous revised to 261k so I guess an improvement. continuing claims 1.359m. pretty good.
personal consumption +1.0%. pretty pud.
real disposable income fell 0.5%, higher nominal but inflation dragged it down.
saving rate 5.2% down from 5.6%.
I can't imagine calling a recession while we are at full employment but I'm guessing the next print shows those employment numbers worsening quite a bit and the other stuff falling off a cliff. I bet they eventually call it starting 3rd quarter or so.
Post by: steve dave on July 28, 2022, 07:44:03 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/6o6dsi.jpg)
Post by: steve dave on July 28, 2022, 07:58:12 AM
GDP Day! Can't wait to confidently and loudly proclaim that WE ARE BY DEFINITION IN/NOT IN A RECESSION!
:excited:
https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1552639128998641664
Post by: catastrophe on July 28, 2022, 09:48:25 AM
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on July 28, 2022, 09:53:51 AM
Post by: steve dave on July 28, 2022, 09:56:14 AM
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.
agreed
Post by: wetwillie on July 28, 2022, 09:56:31 AM
The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.
What is going to happen to the housing market
Post by: steve dave on July 28, 2022, 10:34:56 AM
Well, mortgage rates are coming down some. I think the market cools considerably and prices flatten out nationwide. I don’t think we see any give backs on valuations outside of the markets that got super heated since house prices are sticky AF.The labor market will reflect the GDP soon enough.
What is going to happen to the housing market
Post by: wetwillie on July 28, 2022, 11:03:58 AM
Post by: catastrophe on July 28, 2022, 11:38:48 AM
I listened to some analysis yesterday that mostly agrees with that based on current inventory and new home starts relative to demand. The amount referenced of institutional buyers as a percentage of total homes bought last year was at nearly 20% which I thought was very high. Certainly seems like we are not going to repeat 2008.Does the involvement of institutional buyers indicate a bunch of houses will pop back on the market after it cools, or is the thought that these folks are primarily focused on renting?
Post by: wetwillie on July 28, 2022, 11:45:07 AM
The sentiment seems to be that inventory is gone forever, it has become a long term hold.
Post by: KITNfury on July 28, 2022, 12:44:13 PM
I listened to some analysis yesterday that mostly agrees with that based on current inventory and new home starts relative to demand. The amount referenced of institutional buyers as a percentage of total homes bought last year was at nearly 20% which I thought was very high. Certainly seems like we are not going to repeat 2008.I read that it was 13%.
I agree with SD, at most I see a flattening, but probably nothing like a crash. It is, and has been, a supply/demand issue. Rates could get high enough to significantly drop the prices, but I don't think that will happen.
I'm putting my money where my mouth is on that. But my property values are largely based on NOI, and I definitely don't see the desire for cashflow, tax savings, equity growth, and an inflation hedge going away any time soon.
Post by: wetwillie on July 28, 2022, 01:56:59 PM
Post by: steve dave on July 29, 2022, 07:42:35 AM
Core PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed always talks about and targets 2%. Just posted 4.8% y/y.
Eurozone inflation at 8.9%.
everything is red hot
(https://c.tenor.com/PEDzvMlrdi0AAAAC/fire.gif)
Post by: Katpappy on July 29, 2022, 04:16:22 PM
It will be interesting to see the micro effects of states like California losing huge numbers of citizens and states like Texas and Florida gaining them. I imagine places like Austin TX are white hot right now.
I can tell you my nephew sold his house in Austin for over the asking price within three days. That was in November of last year.
Post by: steve dave on July 29, 2022, 04:44:01 PM
Post by: star seed 7 on July 29, 2022, 04:50:35 PM
Post by: wetwillie on July 29, 2022, 05:08:50 PM
My mom put her house in California on the market last month and has not sold it yet :ohno:
Which state is she moving to
Post by: Tobias on July 29, 2022, 08:15:42 PM
Post by: sys on July 31, 2022, 05:49:27 PM
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1553873344038043649
Post by: steve dave on July 31, 2022, 05:55:49 PM
Post by: steve dave on August 01, 2022, 09:51:33 AM
:surprised:
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1553873344038043649
(https://i.imgflip.com/6okmus.jpg)
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1554116028828876800
Post by: wetwillie on August 01, 2022, 10:00:19 AM
Post by: bucket on August 01, 2022, 10:11:17 AM
Post by: steve dave on August 01, 2022, 12:18:45 PM
This feels like good news, please confirm.
it was inevitable. I'm personally surprised it is looking like such a snapback though. It's good in that extreme inflation is bad. but we're going to see reaction in other areas that are seen as not good. also inevitable.
Post by: michigancat on August 01, 2022, 12:23:39 PM
Post by: bucket on August 01, 2022, 12:34:31 PM
my uninformed ass just thinks things are very weird and unpredictable right now
https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1554081504287866880
Mohamed is a good follow. I think the main point to stress is that "the market is not the economy." The question is whether this is a relief rally or not, and a lot of people are betting on the bear market being over and the market bottoming in June.
Post by: steve dave on August 01, 2022, 12:37:00 PM
Post by: bucket on August 01, 2022, 12:42:05 PM
Don’t get Mo started on the Jets!
He likes his sports.
Post by: sys on August 01, 2022, 02:51:19 PM
Post by: steve dave on August 01, 2022, 02:54:14 PM
depending on my mood i either find it mildly amusing or extremely annoying when good ol' tom keene wastes half of every interview trying force guests to offer milquetoast sports takes (boston and ny only).Kernan talks Jets with Mo for about 1/5 of each time he’s on (like twice a week).
Post by: sys on August 01, 2022, 03:01:22 PM
Post by: steve dave on August 01, 2022, 03:05:06 PM
Post by: Kat Kid on August 05, 2022, 09:57:20 AM
Payroll +528,000 jobs
Post by: steve dave on August 05, 2022, 10:36:00 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.htmlIncredible. I still think odds of recession are high but the odds of a “soft landing” are not zero and I would have said dang near zero not long ago. Also once service and leisure jobs get done ramping we will crest and start losing.
Payroll +528,000 jobs
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Post by: Kat Kid on August 05, 2022, 10:42:38 AM
Post by: steve dave on August 05, 2022, 10:43:23 AM
if the next inflation number comes down Jay Powell is about to start endzone dancing
deservedly so
Post by: Kat Kid on August 05, 2022, 12:43:57 PM
https://twitter.com/lil_black4/status/1113846897347911682?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1113846897347911682%7Ctwgr%5E995672841a391c64da16ae01652acf19e2474148%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmashable.com%2Farticle%2Fhit-the-woah-challenge
Post by: cfbandyman on August 05, 2022, 01:12:16 PM
if the next inflation number comes down Jay Powell is about to start endzone dancing
deservedly so
Will spike that ball in the endzone
Post by: KITNfury on August 05, 2022, 01:16:30 PM
Post by: sys on August 05, 2022, 03:22:21 PM
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
Post by: steve dave on August 05, 2022, 09:38:44 PM
not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
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Post by: Spracne on August 05, 2022, 09:45:51 PM
not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
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The nine tweets in that Twitter thread.
Post by: steve dave on August 05, 2022, 09:53:35 PM
That tweet thread agrees with my interpretation of today’s numbers as far as I can tell (disclaimer: I’m a rough ridin' moron and am usually missing something)not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
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The nine tweets in that Twitter thread.
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Post by: Spracne on August 05, 2022, 09:55:00 PM
That tweet thread agrees with my interpretation of today’s numbers as far as I can tell (disclaimer: I’m a rough ridin' moron and am usually missing something)not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
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The nine tweets in that Twitter thread.
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Are you everyone, though? Huh?
Post by: steve dave on August 05, 2022, 10:11:00 PM
That tweet thread agrees with my interpretation of today’s numbers as far as I can tell (disclaimer: I’m a rough ridin' moron and am usually missing something)not everyone agrees with this thread's interpretation of today's numbers.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1555562454016561152
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
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The nine tweets in that Twitter thread.
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Are you everyone, though? Huh?
FUUUUUUUUUUUUCK! >:-(
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Post by: sys on August 05, 2022, 11:01:36 PM
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
lower chance of recession, greater chance of a soft landing; powell happy.
Post by: steve dave on August 06, 2022, 07:44:55 AM
What is “this thread’s interpretation”? In your interpretation….
lower chance of recession, greater chance of a soft landing; powell happy.
oh. yeah I guess I think a chance of a recession is less than 100% now though I still think it happens.
Post by: Kat Kid on August 06, 2022, 08:04:22 AM
The most frustrating part about the wage-price spiral people sounding the alarms is this chart here:
(https://imageio.forbes.com/blogs-images/timworstall/files/2016/10/wagescompensation-1200x1093.png?format=png&width=1200)
https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/ (https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/)
When people like Larry Summers who didn't do nearly enough the last recession to help unemployment (and still were accused by many of causing rampant inflation! Which was absolutely wrong!) are still primarily worried about triggering a recession rather than waiting to see if supply can gear up without pulling down demand.
I think J Powell is going to go for it and I hope he Kerri Struggs the landing and then tells Larry Summers to eff off to Mars.
Post by: sys on August 06, 2022, 07:15:21 PM
I think that twitter thread and many other inflation hawks are taking it for granted that the Fed must manufacture a recession to bring down inflation and that they themselves would were they J Powell. I think Powell and the rest are willing to let inflation run above 2% if it shows real signs of coming down.
The most frustrating part about the wage-price spiral people sounding the alarms is this chart here:
i think you're right that the fed delivering a kill shot is the most salient concern, but i think it's also true that there are just all sorts of conflicting signals and it's totally possible that the economy is going to take a dive regardless of what the fed does or doesn't do.
re. choosing between the dual mandates, i think it's relevant that since the first few months after it kicked up, inflation has been far outpacing wage growth, so it's not completely clear to me that giving inflation a little more room to run would be beneficial to wage earners.
Post by: steve dave on August 18, 2022, 07:35:05 AM
Philly Fed +6.2 which is wildly different than the giant negative Empire Fed number earlier this week.
moderately positive numbers all around :dunno:
Post by: bucket on August 26, 2022, 10:01:46 AM
Post by: steve dave on August 26, 2022, 10:30:49 AM
So, Jerome had not nice things to say in Jackson Hole.I liked it.
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Post by: steve dave on August 26, 2022, 11:27:09 AM
Post by: steve dave on August 26, 2022, 12:23:21 PM
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Post by: sys on August 26, 2022, 02:39:07 PM
Post by: steve dave on August 31, 2022, 07:20:40 AM
seems like an inflection point? keeping sawin' wood jerome!
Post by: steve dave on September 02, 2022, 07:30:57 AM
https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1565678546118483971
Post by: Kat Kid on September 02, 2022, 07:37:39 AM
Post by: bucket on September 02, 2022, 07:46:36 AM
Not time to buy yet.
Because September is historically bad or because we need higher unemployment?!
Post by: steve dave on September 02, 2022, 07:58:21 AM
kk has a long and storied history of timing the market. Dumb luck? Maybe…MAYBE NOT!Not time to buy yet.
Because September is historically bad or because we need higher unemployment?!
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Post by: Kat Kid on September 20, 2022, 12:46:48 PM
Lmao
Post by: pissclams on September 20, 2022, 03:08:29 PM
Post by: steve dave on September 21, 2022, 05:36:30 PM
https://twitter.com/boes_/status/1572691019774464001
Post by: pissclams on September 25, 2022, 05:30:39 PM
some interesting
Post by: steve dave on October 06, 2022, 09:15:02 AM
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1578010838325157889
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Post by: Stupid Fitz on October 06, 2022, 11:57:53 AM
Folks, is Belarus the GOAT in economics?
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1578010838325157889
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Great idea. If only our President was smart enough to just sign an order banning people from being poor.
Post by: Kat Kid on October 06, 2022, 12:02:13 PM
Folks, is Belarus the GOAT in economics?Real neck and neck with him and Erdogan who keeps cutting interest rates as a way to fix inflation.
https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1578010838325157889
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Post by: pissclams on October 06, 2022, 01:27:28 PM
am I the first freshman who’s ever taken econ 101?
I heard it was for upperclassmen. i’ll probably get an A+?
Post by: bucket on October 10, 2022, 07:59:16 AM
In predicting whether the S&P is more likely to go up 10% or down 10%, Mo thinks we're more likely to go up 10% before going down 10% albeit it sounds like he, unsurprisingly, thinks we're going to go down further, "if you give me +10 or -5 I'd hesitate to go with +10." That's more optimistic than I expected because I've heard people expecting the S&P to touch 3,000 by the end of the year.
Post by: steve dave on December 02, 2022, 07:35:28 AM
https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1598671213198467073
Post by: steve dave on December 02, 2022, 07:35:54 AM
JEROME GONNA DROP THE HAMMER!
Post by: steve dave on December 13, 2022, 07:33:34 AM
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1602657299243343872
Post by: steve dave on December 13, 2022, 07:36:22 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/745l9f.jpg)
Post by: Justwin on December 13, 2022, 09:43:18 AM
CPI surprise miss. Inflation cool AF. Jerome, the hammer, put it down
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1602657299243343872
Good to see inflation heading in the right direction. Core CPI is still being stubborn compared to the overall CPI.
Post by: Cire on December 13, 2022, 11:44:42 AM
Post by: steve dave on January 06, 2023, 07:51:33 AM
got this candid shot of Jerome Powell reaction to the report.
(https://www.memecreator.org/static/images/memes/5542568.jpg)
HAMMER GONNA GET DROPPED AGAIN.
Post by: Justwin on January 06, 2023, 10:31:49 AM
Post by: IPA4Me on January 08, 2023, 07:49:28 PM
Wage growth is softening, though.Correct. That seems to be why the market jumped on Friday.
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Post by: steve dave on January 12, 2023, 07:32:05 AM
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1613528891192131585
BORING!
Post by: steve dave on January 12, 2023, 07:34:58 AM
WHICH WAY WESTERN MAN!?
(https://i.imgflip.com/745l9f.jpg)
I would like to direct the panel's attention back to this good meme I made
Post by: IPA4Me on January 13, 2023, 05:21:31 PM
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Post by: kim carnes on January 13, 2023, 05:25:30 PM
Post by: pissclams on January 13, 2023, 07:55:10 PM
Post by: pissclams on January 13, 2023, 07:55:41 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on January 14, 2023, 05:32:03 AM
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Post by: IPA4Me on January 14, 2023, 06:10:18 AM
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Post by: IPA4Me on January 31, 2023, 03:45:06 PM
I say data is flat and market runs for 30 minutes. Then Daddy Powell puts on the hawk mask. SPY drops to 396.
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Post by: bucket on February 02, 2023, 02:43:09 PM
Post by: kim carnes on February 02, 2023, 03:06:23 PM
Y'all think this rally has legs? Soft landing bitches!
I do not
Post by: steve dave on February 03, 2023, 07:51:44 AM
lmao
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230203/a5fa47ab1c765b9489dfb26e2d43c6e6.jpg)
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Post by: steve dave on February 03, 2023, 07:54:12 AM
https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1621506954370682880?s=46&t=2lsSCSq9fua23FwCCd_jgw
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Post by: Pete on February 03, 2023, 07:56:16 AM
Post by: steve dave on February 03, 2023, 07:59:22 AM
Post by: steve dave on February 03, 2023, 08:00:25 AM
Post by: Pete on February 03, 2023, 08:01:41 AM
remember when everyone was, like, "are we IN a recession or are we just about to be in a recession?" lmao
I do! I also remember dickheads saying "sorry no boat motors in stock, but maybe I got one in the back for like 20% extra." Same dickheads now are saying "bro, I got too many of these boat motors, please buy one from me!"
Post by: steve dave on February 03, 2023, 08:02:24 AM
remember when everyone was, like, "are we IN a recession or are we just about to be in a recession?" lmao
I do! I also remember dickheads saying "sorry no boat motors in stock, but maybe I got one in the back for like 20% extra." Same dickheads now are saying "bro, I got too many of these boat motors, please buy one from me!"
was truly the golden era of sellin' motor boats
Post by: sys on February 03, 2023, 08:02:32 AM
Post by: Pete on February 03, 2023, 08:02:48 AM
Post by: steve dave on February 03, 2023, 08:04:20 AM
fed shoulda done 50.
lmao if they try to do it next round. Jerome, "Well, you see, we mumped up. Now I must lob this grenade at you". doing a burnout in his camero and then slamming on the brakes and then immediately doing another burnout. but, like, opposite. you get the idea.
Post by: Pete on February 03, 2023, 08:09:27 AM
Post by: steve dave on February 03, 2023, 08:24:57 AM
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Post by: Pete on February 03, 2023, 08:27:51 AM
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Yeah, I have a freshman in high school right now who will need a used car at the end of summer. Hoping that the new car market has stagnate inventory by then, and collapses the used car market. I could push it to November or December, but not beyond that.
Post by: Justwin on February 03, 2023, 11:10:42 AM
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
A lot of used cars have come down quite a bit in price. I think used car prices are roughly 15% lower now than they were a year ago.
Post by: steve dave on February 03, 2023, 12:33:00 PM
https://twitter.com/guydealership/status/1620938797704945665
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Post by: wetwillie on February 03, 2023, 12:42:08 PM
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on February 03, 2023, 02:09:27 PM
Wait if it’s a good time to sell your car, is it also a bad time to buy a replacement?
Yeah. The real reason it's a good time to sell your car and buy another is that the jobs outlook indicates that interest rates are going to go up and stay high for awhile.
Post by: IPA4Me on February 04, 2023, 02:23:21 PM
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Post by: steve dave on February 04, 2023, 09:33:01 PM
Hella short squeeze on Friday. Do we hold SPY 410 on Monday or retrace back to 405? Glad I'm a price action player. Draw me levels and play whatever happens. My current favorites are XOM, COIN, and SPY. Can usually get good movement daily from one of them.
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wut
Post by: IPA4Me on February 05, 2023, 05:31:22 AM
$APPL. That run up was all a squeeze and short coverings. Shorts were covering and price kept going up. Once covers were done, bloop. Rejected right off $157.38 like clockwork. Then you get a little range trading before dropping down to next price level. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230205/0a3d276aa1dc144b27c5ff2ad126ef3b.jpg)Hella short squeeze on Friday. Do we hold SPY 410 on Monday or retrace back to 405? Glad I'm a price action player. Draw me levels and play whatever happens. My current favorites are XOM, COIN, and SPY. Can usually get good movement daily from one of them.
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wut
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Post by: sys on February 24, 2023, 02:06:44 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on February 25, 2023, 08:05:23 PM
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Post by: IPA4Me on February 25, 2023, 08:28:21 PM
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Post by: IPA4Me on February 26, 2023, 08:54:40 AM
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1629517018222174214?t=fKkMTEu6rqEp7j5gTdrHyw&s=19
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Post by: bucket on February 26, 2023, 12:19:53 PM
I'm getting more and more bearish. Going to increase my ETF shorts over the next week in the rollover.
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I think we're definitely going back down now that inflation appears to be sticky. Who could have foreseen that. I saw someone comment that January would mark market highs for the year. I'm not sure about that but I'll probably DCA more heavily late spring summer with a hope for a strong end to the year.
Post by: IPA4Me on February 26, 2023, 03:42:43 PM
Big player in sub prime used car business goes down.https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1629946643012542464?t=-L2lyVz0c1vVcCmTX0QbKA&s=19
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1629517018222174214?t=fKkMTEu6rqEp7j5gTdrHyw&s=19
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Post by: DaBigTrain on March 07, 2023, 04:38:33 PM
Post by: Pete on March 07, 2023, 04:51:45 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on March 07, 2023, 07:02:51 PM
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Post by: IPA4Me on March 09, 2023, 05:43:13 PM
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Post by: bucket on March 09, 2023, 06:38:09 PM
:flush:
Is this not what you were expecting?
Post by: steve dave on March 10, 2023, 07:31:49 AM
Counterpoint, 3.6% unemployment and wage growth slowed.
:dunno:
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Post by: steve dave on March 10, 2023, 07:34:24 AM
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Post by: steve dave on March 10, 2023, 09:07:23 AM
https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1634208120468537344
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Post by: bucket on March 10, 2023, 09:12:33 AM
Banks melting down because of contagion worry from SVB. Putting this here instead of investing thread because of Fed stuff.
https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1634208120468537344
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I’m scooping up some financial services companies this morning. Not SIVB. Full disclosure: I’m an idiot with no idea of what I’m doing.
Post by: steve dave on March 10, 2023, 09:34:24 AM
Think we’re getting 50bpI think we’re getting 25bp
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Post by: Pete on March 10, 2023, 09:47:45 AM
Post by: IPA4Me on March 10, 2023, 10:22:09 AM
Exactly as I've been expecting.:flush:
Is this not what you were expecting?
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Post by: steve dave on March 10, 2023, 10:51:21 AM
Over the next 20 years, at what annualized rate does the S&P beat inflation? :pray:
8%
Post by: GregKSU1027 on March 10, 2023, 10:59:19 AM
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
Post by: steve dave on March 10, 2023, 11:05:38 AM
Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
https://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=27413.msg2205296#msg2205296
Post by: Stupid Fitz on March 10, 2023, 11:27:05 AM
Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
Vanguard S&P. Also, don't read the crypto thread like ever.
Post by: DaBigTrain on March 10, 2023, 12:15:10 PM
Yeah if you don’t want to make major Jack it’s best to not read it.Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
Vanguard S&P. Also, don't read the crypto thread like ever.
Post by: steve dave on March 10, 2023, 12:16:10 PM
Banks melting down because of contagion worry from SVB. Putting this here instead of investing thread because of Fed stuff.lol, Kalshi email I just got
https://twitter.com/jeannasmialek/status/1634208120468537344
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230310/92ff373a58d89c6cc7881391f2a8f808.jpg)
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Post by: DaBigTrain on March 10, 2023, 12:17:04 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on March 10, 2023, 12:42:03 PM
Post by: Pete on March 10, 2023, 11:03:38 PM
Man, if you are right I am going to be delightedOver the next 20 years, at what annualized rate does the S&P beat inflation? :pray:
8%
Post by: steve dave on March 11, 2023, 07:22:29 AM
I don’t bet against America Pete. Also I’m overly optimistic as a steady state so write that down.Man, if you are right I am going to be delightedOver the next 20 years, at what annualized rate does the S&P beat inflation? :pray:
8%
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Post by: tdaver on March 12, 2023, 09:32:38 AM
Hello Finance goEMAW moguls. I am wondering if you guys have any resources/recommendations to maybe get into the markets. I am very new to the landscape. Wondering if there were some books or resources. I now have some dollars. Trying to enter at the ground level maybe build a little portfolio.
Any tips would be greatly appreciated.
https://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/
Post by: pissclams on March 12, 2023, 10:52:25 AM
Post by: steve dave on March 12, 2023, 11:43:14 AM
I know it's petty but I love reading the dunk replies
Post by: pissclams on March 12, 2023, 12:12:58 PM
Post by: catastrophe on March 12, 2023, 01:00:22 PM
Post by: wetwillie on March 12, 2023, 01:09:54 PM
Post by: michigancat on March 12, 2023, 01:26:45 PM
We roasting this gal cause her business checking account was at a bank that failed?
because of the way she's portraying herself
https://twitter.com/lcmichaelides/status/1634654752880447489
IMO getting significant VC money after a Duke MBA and working at McKinsey makes you part of the "tech elite". Living in Ohio doesn't change that
Post by: kim carnes on March 12, 2023, 01:29:40 PM
We roasting this gal cause her business checking account was at a bank that failed?
I would say the main reason is bc her business is a joke
Post by: kim carnes on March 12, 2023, 01:31:06 PM
Post by: michigancat on March 12, 2023, 01:31:57 PM
But to be fair, that’s the case for probably 95% of startups.Yes
They also "hustle" a lot
Post by: michigancat on March 12, 2023, 01:58:44 PM
https://www.mgv.vc/portfolio/
Post by: pissclams on March 12, 2023, 02:28:55 PM
Post by: wetwillie on March 12, 2023, 03:01:08 PM
We roasting this gal cause her business checking account was at a bank that failed?
I would say the main reason is bc her business is a joke
I’m not sure how you came to that conclusion from the twitter thread. Sounded like business was good and her payroll and working capital are frozen at the bank she chose to use.
Post by: sys on March 12, 2023, 03:34:43 PM
her payroll and working capital are frozen at the bank she chose to use.
it'll be (partially or wholly) unfrozen by monday. relax and trust our federal bank regulators.
Post by: Pete on March 12, 2023, 03:39:11 PM
Post by: michigancat on March 12, 2023, 03:40:29 PM
Post by: Pete on March 12, 2023, 03:42:31 PM
can someone explain why so many startups put their deposits in SVB?My guess is that it is in return for ridiculous loans and lines of credit.
Post by: michigancat on March 12, 2023, 03:58:53 PM
can someone explain why so many startups put their deposits in SVB?My guess is that it is in return for ridiculous loans and lines of credit.
why wouldn't that attract a more diverse pool of depositors?
Post by: wetwillie on March 12, 2023, 04:04:01 PM
I wonder if the real reason she is pissed is that her line of credit just dried up and she suspects that other banks will not be as inclined to gamble on her crazy ideas?
If that’s the case then I’ll get out the popcorn so we can all laugh at her
Post by: sys on March 12, 2023, 04:50:50 PM
can someone explain why so many startups put their deposits in SVB?
i've seen it explained as:
1. they were genuinely good and experienced at making loans and arranging financial services for atypical/early phase businesses
2. easier when related parties all used the same bank
3. a condition of loans/startup funding (including allegations that vc's got unrelated favorable treatment in exchange for directing deposits to svb).
4. just sort of standard agglomeration effects. like many of my coworkers use the same liability insurance agents and accountants and it's just because they pass recommendations btwn themselves and it's just easier because those people already know what products and services we need.
Post by: sys on March 12, 2023, 05:31:53 PM
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1635042362870345728
Post by: sonofdaxjones on March 12, 2023, 07:34:04 PM
Post by: michigancat on March 13, 2023, 06:19:56 AM
Post by: steve dave on March 13, 2023, 07:01:07 AM
SVB and Signature. Who's next on the Jim Cramer "They're Solid" hit parade?lmao
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634222320398086145?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: Pete on March 13, 2023, 08:16:10 AM
Post by: _33 on March 13, 2023, 08:28:26 AM
Post by: michigancat on March 13, 2023, 08:35:59 AM
Post by: michigancat on March 13, 2023, 08:43:05 AM
Man, I wish I had enough money in a bank to help contribute to a run on the banks.I'm going to brag a bit here but I have a friend who is CEO of a vc-funded startup and got put on one of these tech group chats by his investors to connect with other CEOs. He told me they mostly talked about hiring fuckable HR managers (other CEOs, not my friend!!!) but I'm going to ask him if one of them started a bank run. I'm guessing he is on a much lower rung than the David sacks one but still.
Post by: XocolateThundarr on March 13, 2023, 09:02:48 AM
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Yeah, I have a freshman in high school right now who will need a used car at the end of summer. Hoping that the new car market has stagnate inventory by then, and collapses the used car market. I could push it to November or December, but not beyond that.
I found an old SRO Crown Vic at an auction for my daughter to drive. It isn't much to look at, but is a sound, safe car. I only paid a couple grand for it. You might look at auctions to see what you can find for a school car.
Post by: Pete on March 13, 2023, 11:30:21 AM
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Yeah, I have a freshman in high school right now who will need a used car at the end of summer. Hoping that the new car market has stagnate inventory by then, and collapses the used car market. I could push it to November or December, but not beyond that.
I found an old SRO Crown Vic at an auction for my daughter to drive. It isn't much to look at, but is a sound, safe car. I only paid a couple grand for it. You might look at auctions to see what you can find for a school car.
That's fine for a daughter, but no one ever in the history of the world has factored in a girl's car into the calculation of whether they would date her or not.
Post by: Pete on March 13, 2023, 11:31:31 AM
When will mortgage rates go down? (Is this the right thread for this? I don't feel comfortable here)
My wild guess is 10 years.
Post by: steve dave on March 13, 2023, 11:40:23 AM
When, I wonder, will we get back to the point where car dealers are truly desperate for customers? I miss the days when they demeaned themselves regularly.
If you are looking for a new car it won't be long at all. Few months. Used may take longer.
Yeah, I have a freshman in high school right now who will need a used car at the end of summer. Hoping that the new car market has stagnate inventory by then, and collapses the used car market. I could push it to November or December, but not beyond that.
I found an old SRO Crown Vic at an auction for my daughter to drive. It isn't much to look at, but is a sound, safe car. I only paid a couple grand for it. You might look at auctions to see what you can find for a school car.
That's fine for a daughter, but no one ever in the history of the world has factored in a girl's car into the calculation of whether they would date her or not.
BIG BACK SEAT!
Post by: steve dave on March 13, 2023, 11:41:09 AM
When will mortgage rates go down? (Is this the right thread for this? I don't feel comfortable here)
I doubt we see anything under 4 for awhile but who knows. The good news is that you can just refinance when they do go down and it's a lot cheaper to do so these days than it used to be.
Post by: kim carnes on March 13, 2023, 11:41:50 AM
Post by: wetwillie on March 13, 2023, 11:51:22 AM
Post by: bucket on March 13, 2023, 11:58:25 AM
The regional banking system is like collapsing
Yes, this is what I want to talk about. I read somewhere the banks are much more stable than they were in 2008. This is a Twitter problem where a panic can be manufactured to create a run on banks.
Post by: kim carnes on March 13, 2023, 12:10:33 PM
Post by: Stupid Fitz on March 13, 2023, 01:19:36 PM
Kim give it to me straight, how bad are we talking here.
Small to mid sized banks that have a lot of business accounts are prob in real trouble. Basically every business owner/account holder is like, "eff it, I'm moving to (Insert Giant Too Big to Fail Bank Here).
Post by: nicname on March 13, 2023, 02:28:17 PM
Post by: mocat on March 13, 2023, 02:30:07 PM
https://twitter.com/bcmerchant/status/1635331043216736256?s=20
Post by: Stupid Fitz on March 13, 2023, 02:54:18 PM
wsj oped weighs in
https://twitter.com/bcmerchant/status/1635331043216736256?s=20
I bet it was the 2 veteran's fault for sure.
Post by: KITNfury on March 13, 2023, 02:54:44 PM
Post by: kim carnes on March 13, 2023, 03:39:48 PM
Is the consolidation of banks a good or bad thing? Saw something where there were a lot more banks and branches 10 years or so ago than there are now.
If banks close due to a panic induced run on deposits rather than mismanagement then I would not view that as a good thing
Post by: Pete on March 13, 2023, 05:24:44 PM
Agree, and generally speaking fewer things means less competition and higher prices/worse service.Is the consolidation of banks a good or bad thing? Saw something where there were a lot more banks and branches 10 years or so ago than there are now.
If banks close due to a panic induced run on deposits rather than mismanagement then I would not view that as a good thing
Post by: cfbandyman on March 13, 2023, 05:35:20 PM
SVB and Signature. Who's next on the Jim Cramer "They're Solid" hit parade?lmao
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634222320398086145?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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:lol: :lol: :lol:
Post by: sys on March 13, 2023, 06:02:18 PM
Is the consolidation of banks a good or bad thing? Saw something where there were a lot more banks and branches 10 years or so ago than there are now.
consolidation is good, imo, but i don't like that some banks are probably going to be forced into it.
it seems likely that there will be increased regulation on mid-sized (50-250b) banks. i think that will make it basically uncompetitive to be a small mid-sized bank so banks are gonna have to decide if they want to stay under 50b or merge to get enough scale to be able to afford regulatory costs.
maybe congress/the fed will have mercy on the small mids and only bump regulations on the over 100b banks or something.
Post by: sys on March 19, 2023, 01:58:02 PM
https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1637433273201700864
Post by: Pete on March 19, 2023, 04:32:16 PM
Post by: bucket on May 04, 2023, 12:07:48 PM
I’m scooping up some financial services companies this morning. Not SIVB. Full disclosure: I’m an idiot with no idea of what I’m doing.
:facepalm:
My regional bank hasn't folded yet and hasn't reported "needing help" but this may have been a mistake.
Post by: IPA4Me on May 09, 2023, 11:42:48 AM
https://retailcapital.substack.com/p/how-is-cpi-impacting-the-market-from?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=668742&post_id=120143677&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
Post by: steve dave on May 18, 2023, 07:38:53 AM
https://twitter.com/firstsquawk/status/1659175353766510596
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Post by: GregKSU1027 on May 18, 2023, 11:05:36 AM
Post by: wetwillie on May 18, 2023, 12:10:16 PM
Jobs remain red hot
https://twitter.com/firstsquawk/status/1659175353766510596
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You would think we were at 20% unemployment based on my LinkedIn feed. Recruiters are getting downsized significantly.
Post by: star seed 7 on May 18, 2023, 01:26:15 PM
Post by: steve dave on June 13, 2023, 08:54:19 AM
:surprised:
Post by: wetwillie on June 13, 2023, 09:34:13 AM
Post by: mocat on June 13, 2023, 09:39:17 AM
Break it down for the non economists amongst us
i think you can only get over 4.0 if you take some weighted ap classes
Post by: kim carnes on June 13, 2023, 10:07:41 AM
Post by: DaBigTrain on June 13, 2023, 10:15:39 AM
Post by: steve dave on June 13, 2023, 10:20:57 AM
Break it down for the non economists amongst us
year over year inflation was lower than expected this month. means jerome will possibly hold on dropping the rate hammer next go around. it's already assumed they wouldn't raise at this week's meeting. but consensus (?) was that they'd do another rate hike next one (so this would just be a pause, not a pivot). now there is some feeling that we may have a longer pause or have plateaud if inflation continues to fall.
https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1668599639472308224
Post by: wetwillie on June 13, 2023, 11:21:06 AM
Post by: IPA4Me on June 14, 2023, 06:59:05 AM
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Post by: steve dave on June 21, 2023, 07:01:06 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzKCtqaaUAEXSQ-?format=jpg&name=large)
Post by: Spracne on June 21, 2023, 07:02:49 PM
Post by: steve dave on June 21, 2023, 07:03:16 PM
Post by: mocat on June 22, 2023, 09:14:16 AM
Post by: Stupid Fitz on June 22, 2023, 10:25:49 AM
absolutely wild chart
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzKCtqaaUAEXSQ-?format=jpg&name=large)
that is crazy. So many takeaways. The main one being that we are way fatter than back then and most likely eat way more food.
Post by: john "teach me how to" dougie on June 22, 2023, 10:31:51 AM
Post by: steve dave on June 22, 2023, 10:39:26 AM
Post by: Justwin on June 22, 2023, 01:51:09 PM
Post by: sys on June 22, 2023, 04:03:18 PM
that is crazy. So many takeaways. The main one being that we are way fatter than back then and most likely eat way more food.
we do eat a bit more, but we've kinda always been deep in the trough compared to other countries.
https://twitter.com/cafreiman/status/1671347971458322434
Post by: wetwillie on June 22, 2023, 04:20:13 PM
Post by: star seed 7 on June 22, 2023, 07:07:27 PM
Post by: KITNfury on June 24, 2023, 03:32:49 PM
That seems politicalthat is crazy. So many takeaways. The main one being that we are way fatter than back then and most likely eat way more food.
we do eat a bit more, but we've kinda always been deep in the trough compared to other countries.
https://twitter.com/cafreiman/status/1671347971458322434
Post by: sys on June 24, 2023, 07:39:51 PM
Post by: steve dave on June 24, 2023, 07:53:53 PM
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Post by: DQ12 on June 25, 2023, 07:59:10 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on June 25, 2023, 09:58:27 PM
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Post by: Cire on June 26, 2023, 08:43:37 AM
It's insane to watch him eat around the world and then come to an american city to eat.
the portions, and ammount of processed crap from the american cities compared to everywhere else is nuts.
Post by: steve dave on June 26, 2023, 11:50:04 AM
What an insane bear market rally this has been.
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it's officially a bull market as of early June
Post by: IPA4Me on June 26, 2023, 11:55:45 AM
Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.What an insane bear market rally this has been.
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it's officially a bull market as of early June
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Post by: wetwillie on June 26, 2023, 11:56:06 AM
Post by: Justwin on June 27, 2023, 12:10:52 PM
Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.What an insane bear market rally this has been.
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it's officially a bull market as of early June
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When does it stop being a bear market rally and just become a bull market?
Post by: steve dave on June 27, 2023, 01:06:23 PM
Officially when it was up 20% from its recent low. Early June sometime.Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.What an insane bear market rally this has been.
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it's officially a bull market as of early June
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When does it stop being a bear market rally and just become a bull market?
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Post by: Justwin on June 27, 2023, 01:54:33 PM
.Officially when it was up 20% from its recent low. Early June sometime.Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.What an insane bear market rally this has been.
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it's officially a bull market as of early June
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When does it stop being a bear market rally and just become a bull market?
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Right. I meant when does IPA4Me start calling it a bull market instead of a bear market rally.
Post by: steve dave on June 27, 2023, 02:02:06 PM
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Post by: kim carnes on June 27, 2023, 03:50:16 PM
Post by: Cire on June 28, 2023, 08:42:15 AM
Post by: steve dave on June 28, 2023, 10:42:15 AM
trade deficit narrowed, seems like we're kicking assSalary increases outpaced inflation the other day. We are cooking:
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Post by: steve dave on June 29, 2023, 07:45:15 AM
1Q GDP revised to 2.0% v. initial report of 1.3%.
folks, this economy is a chef and he came to work at his restaurant and got his kitchen ready and all his helpers there and they got the ingredients and like pots and pans and ovens or whatever they use and they are COOKIN'!
Post by: steve dave on July 06, 2023, 07:24:14 AM
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1676927763230359552
Post by: CNS on July 06, 2023, 01:50:19 PM
Post by: steve dave on July 07, 2023, 07:38:06 AM
JOBS HOT, JEROME GONNA BRING THE HAMMER AGAIN! (caveat, it's ADP so...).
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1676927763230359552
ADP YOU rough ridin' MORON! Jerome, buddy, put the hammer down man. nobody needs to get hurt over here. let's all be cool.
https://twitter.com/markets/status/1677294937585401858
Post by: IPA4Me on July 08, 2023, 08:50:03 AM
Fortunately, I had closed my SPY calls as we approached WTF reversal as it was the top of a gap fill for SPX.
A team will be off vacation next week on Wall Street. Would like to chop up one more level to $SPY 450 before a deep pullback as we rally into a recession.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230708/af9dd0b0410158202f4129d6dffa7a8f.jpg)
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Post by: IPA4Me on July 12, 2023, 08:09:40 AM
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Post by: steve dave on July 12, 2023, 08:43:23 AM
But irl I think one more raise minimum.
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Post by: IPA4Me on July 12, 2023, 08:56:42 AM
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Post by: IPA4Me on July 13, 2023, 08:13:13 AM
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Post by: IPA4Me on July 26, 2023, 01:06:51 PM
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1684262410977443842
Post by: IPA4Me on July 27, 2023, 07:41:36 AM
https://twitter.com/snorlax_uw/status/1684542540412776448
Post by: steve dave on July 30, 2023, 10:17:37 AM
These are all nominal I think but still fun to look at. Thread:
https://twitter.com/vebaccount/status/1685470963511508992?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: IPA4Me on July 30, 2023, 10:27:50 AM
Post by: steve dave on July 30, 2023, 04:30:19 PM
Frying pan charts are hot AF on econ/fintwit right now.
These are all nominal I think but still fun to look at. Thread:
https://twitter.com/vebaccount/status/1685470963511508992?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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https://twitter.com/vebaccount/status/1685662731536384000
Post by: IPA4Me on July 31, 2023, 06:01:51 PM
Post by: DaBigTrain on July 31, 2023, 06:22:55 PM
August likely to be soft per Goldman Sachs. If you're long S&P 500 and can trade options...(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230731/a31c8bf47267b8ab77649cebbdcaa4fe.jpg)Is this financial advice?
Post by: IPA4Me on July 31, 2023, 06:25:10 PM
Not from me. From GS.August likely to be soft per Goldman Sachs. If you're long S&P 500 and can trade options...(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230731/a31c8bf47267b8ab77649cebbdcaa4fe.jpg)Is this financial advice?
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Post by: steve dave on July 31, 2023, 08:54:01 PM
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Post by: Stupid Fitz on August 01, 2023, 08:12:07 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230801/d1f514a19bc834c08782efa16c33f5c3.jpg)
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Traders were doing a bunch of even more drugs in 1987 i bet.
Post by: CNS on August 01, 2023, 12:43:23 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on August 18, 2023, 08:21:21 AM
Post by: pissclams on September 03, 2023, 02:57:09 PM
Post by: pissclams on September 11, 2023, 10:16:46 AM
Post by: steve dave on September 11, 2023, 11:25:25 AM
Post by: pissclams on September 11, 2023, 11:59:39 AM
Post by: IPA4Me on September 11, 2023, 03:09:50 PM
Post by: mocat on September 11, 2023, 03:20:09 PM
Post by: DaBigTrain on September 11, 2023, 03:30:06 PM
Post by: cfbandyman on September 11, 2023, 11:46:56 PM
Post by: steve dave on September 13, 2023, 07:39:41 AM
:sdeek:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1701937942426440098?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: wetwillie on September 13, 2023, 08:09:57 AM
Post by: Justwin on September 13, 2023, 08:52:17 AM
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
It includes vehicles (new and used), fuels (gas and diesel), vehicle insurance, vehicle maintenance & repairs, vehicle parts, vehicle fees, airfares and public transportation costs.
Post by: Justwin on September 13, 2023, 09:02:52 AM
3.7% AUGUST CPI! HAMMER INCOMING!
:sdeek:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1701937942426440098?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Headline: Inflation was so bad last year that real household income tumbled the most in 12 years, causing families severe economic pain
https://fortune.com/2023/09/12/real-household-income-inflation/
It always cracks me up when economists, journalists and politicians wonder why Americans are so down on the economy when unemployment is very low.
Some other interesting things from the article:
- Official poverty rate was down to 11.5% from 11.6%
- Supplemental poverty rate rose to 12.4% due to no stimulus check and no extra child tax credit
- Median income for 90th percentile fell to $216,000 while median income for 10th percentile rose to $17,000
- Gini coefficient fell to 0.488
Post by: wetwillie on September 13, 2023, 03:10:37 PM
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
It includes vehicles (new and used), fuels (gas and diesel), vehicle insurance, vehicle maintenance & repairs, vehicle parts, vehicle fees, airfares and public transportation costs.
I'm surprised that category is at +10% when Gasoline is down -3%.
Post by: steve dave on September 13, 2023, 03:37:38 PM
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
It includes vehicles (new and used), fuels (gas and diesel), vehicle insurance, vehicle maintenance & repairs, vehicle parts, vehicle fees, airfares and public transportation costs.
I'm surprised that category is at +10% when Gasoline is down -3%.
I haven't looked at all the parts but I know airfare was way up but will be coming down a lot soon.
Post by: Spracne on September 13, 2023, 03:58:15 PM
Is transportation the non fuel related cost associated with driving? As in people are paying higher car payments?
It includes vehicles (new and used), fuels (gas and diesel), vehicle insurance, vehicle maintenance & repairs, vehicle parts, vehicle fees, airfares and public transportation costs.
I'm surprised that category is at +10% when Gasoline is down -3%.
I haven't looked at all the parts but I know airfare was way up but will be coming down a lot soon.
HOW SOON?!?!
Post by: Kat Kid on September 13, 2023, 04:40:56 PM
Post by: steve dave on September 13, 2023, 04:57:50 PM
I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
it's wild how we solved all child poverty in our country during covid with like 0.2% of the military budget and then were just like, NEVER AGAIN!
Post by: IPA4Me on September 13, 2023, 07:21:24 PM
Must feed the military industrial complex.I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
it's wild how we solved all child poverty in our country during covid with like 0.2% of the military budget and then were just like, NEVER AGAIN!
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230914/da9f501eddeaed3c010464c01a6f82d0.jpg)
Post by: Kat Kid on September 13, 2023, 09:17:38 PM
It was so simple and easy and good and we said “this sucks!”I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
it's wild how we solved all child poverty in our country during covid with like 0.2% of the military budget and then were just like, NEVER AGAIN!
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb in its administration and we should have just paid it through the Social Security administration but it was at least a step in the right direction and we also just said “what if instead we roll back child labor protections and see how many kids we can maim and kill in slaughterhouses so we can get an update to the Jungle?”
Post by: sys on September 14, 2023, 03:24:41 AM
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.
correct.
Post by: Cire on September 14, 2023, 06:41:40 AM
This chapter will be titled “the second gilded age” when our grand kids/great grand kids take a history class in their future charter schoolsIt was so simple and easy and good and we said “this sucks!”I was looking at a chart for inflation and it had “food in the workplace/schools up 57%” and I was mad again about the US getting rid of free school lunch.
it's wild how we solved all child poverty in our country during covid with like 0.2% of the military budget and then were just like, NEVER AGAIN!
The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb in its administration and we should have just paid it through the Social Security administration but it was at least a step in the right direction and we also just said “what if instead we roll back child labor protections and see how many kids we can maim and kill in slaughterhouses so we can get an update to the Jungle?”
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Post by: Kat Kid on September 14, 2023, 07:43:29 AM
I have come to really dislike the tax credit way in which we do any social program. The old one was dumb the new one was dumb in its administration. Giving children and other non workers money to ensure that they are cared for is absolutely the right thing to do.The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.
correct.
Post by: KITNfury on September 14, 2023, 09:53:51 AM
Post by: Justwin on September 14, 2023, 10:05:46 AM
3.7% AUGUST CPI! HAMMER INCOMING!
:sdeek:
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1701937942426440098?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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I went and looked at the actual CPI data this morning and it is Transportation Services that is up 10.3%. This includes motor vehicle maintenance and repair, motor vehicle insurance and airline fares. The maintenance and repair and insurance components are driving this increase. Airline fares are actually down year over year.
The overall Transportation index is up 1.3% from Aug 2022 to Aug 2023. The overall Transportation index is also up 1.3% from July 2023 to Aug 2023.
Post by: sys on September 14, 2023, 07:20:12 PM
I have come to really dislike the tax credit way in which we do any social program. The old one was dumb the new one was dumb in its administration. Giving children and other non workers money to ensure that they are cared for is absolutely the right thing to do.The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.
correct.
i agree with you on running everything through the tax code.
this is going to violate the non-political tag of this thread, but the ctc in particular is being very oversold. for example, the claim that it reduced "child poverty" makes it sound as if this was an independent measure of the effect. but of course it's not. it's just a calculation that if you give the amount of money given out, then mechanically this raises a number of families with children to an income that's over the poverty level. i have no doubt that there was a concurrent rise in the welfare of poor children whose families received the tax credit, but we shouldn't pretend that we've measured what that benefit was. we don't know.
the claim that the ctc was super cheap is also false. in fact, the cost is a big reason it wasn't renewed. it would have cost 170 billion a year to renew, which is more than twice as much as (the accounting value of mostly surplus and obsolete equipment) we've given ukraine (over a multi-year period). it's like 20% of the military budget (most of which is salary and benefits, which if cut would also increase child poverty). it's more than the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the inflation reduction act.
and most of that cost did nothing to reduce child poverty, because it was sent to taxpayers like you, simply as a payment from the government to people suffering no economic hardship, based on the dubious criteria of currently having a child under the age of 18.
https://twitter.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1701671372819214634
meanwhile we shouldn't act like there are no tradeoffs involved in spending money. we are on track for something like a two trillion deficit this year. at a time when the economy is growing rapidly and the govt is spending like 5% (i'm guessing, didn't try to look it up) in interest on dept. we have to either raise revenues (seems unlikely) or cut spending (even less likely). the one thing we can do fairly easily to try and rationalize the budget is not take on new large spending programs. and we already have an extremely progressive tax code with a very low tax burden for lower income families.
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1702131547833344285
Post by: IPA4Me on September 20, 2023, 03:35:04 PM
Puts paid well today.
Post by: Kat Kid on September 20, 2023, 11:24:58 PM
Our tax code and policy agendas are so intertwined it is hard sometimes to suss out one from the other. It is a horrific tax code and the inefficiencies mean it is not nearly as progressive as we think. if we just had a simpler tax code then compliance issues would get much easier.I have come to really dislike the tax credit way in which we do any social program. The old one was dumb the new one was dumb in its administration. Giving children and other non workers money to ensure that they are cared for is absolutely the right thing to do.The Child Tax Credit is actually dumb.
correct.
i agree with you on running everything through the tax code.
this is going to violate the non-political tag of this thread, but the ctc in particular is being very oversold. for example, the claim that it reduced "child poverty" makes it sound as if this was an independent measure of the effect. but of course it's not. it's just a calculation that if you give the amount of money given out, then mechanically this raises a number of families with children to an income that's over the poverty level. i have no doubt that there was a concurrent rise in the welfare of poor children whose families received the tax credit, but we shouldn't pretend that we've measured what that benefit was. we don't know.
the claim that the ctc was super cheap is also false. in fact, the cost is a big reason it wasn't renewed. it would have cost 170 billion a year to renew, which is more than twice as much as (the accounting value of mostly surplus and obsolete equipment) we've given ukraine (over a multi-year period). it's like 20% of the military budget (most of which is salary and benefits, which if cut would also increase child poverty). it's more than the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the inflation reduction act.
and most of that cost did nothing to reduce child poverty, because it was sent to taxpayers like you, simply as a payment from the government to people suffering no economic hardship, based on the dubious criteria of currently having a child under the age of 18.
https://twitter.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1701671372819214634
meanwhile we shouldn't act like there are no tradeoffs involved in spending money. we are on track for something like a two trillion deficit this year. at a time when the economy is growing rapidly and the govt is spending like 5% (i'm guessing, didn't try to look it up) in interest on dept. we have to either raise revenues (seems unlikely) or cut spending (even less likely). the one thing we can do fairly easily to try and rationalize the budget is not take on new large spending programs. and we already have an extremely progressive tax code with a very low tax burden for lower income families.
https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1702131547833344285
Anyway sorry to muck up with too many politics.
Post by: michigancat on September 21, 2023, 12:19:20 PM
Post by: steve dave on September 21, 2023, 02:34:09 PM
I don't know how you can decouple economics from politics
well, 16 pages in and we mostly have
Post by: steve dave on September 28, 2023, 09:27:40 AM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230928/61e73bd9f92797561d6e5cd49bead782.jpg)
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Post by: Kat Kid on September 28, 2023, 09:39:07 AM
Post by: steve dave on October 06, 2023, 11:53:18 AM
https://twitter.com/prestonmui/status/1710336426238443710
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Post by: wetwillie on October 06, 2023, 12:05:57 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on October 06, 2023, 12:41:11 PM
Post by: wetwillie on October 06, 2023, 12:43:45 PM
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html)
Post by: IPA4Me on October 06, 2023, 01:34:06 PM
Report I saw said economy added 330k new jobsYou need to dig into the report. Headline is trash.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/business/live-news/markets-jobs-report-september/index.html)
The headline caused the algorithm dump this morning. Then we rallied after the digging through the details.
Daddy Powell's tightening is working.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231006/de05fe44b36c5bc4b8c0f1c0e0cd604f.jpg)
Post by: steve dave on October 06, 2023, 04:18:36 PM
Top line jobs look good but it's not. We're softening. Thus the rally today on "no rate hike likely."(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231006/9ce037f980f2636ade85d35feeef7ecb.jpg)That may be but as a little pro tip I’d never read another zerohedge tweet in the rest of my life if I was you.
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Post by: IPA4Me on October 06, 2023, 04:25:20 PM
Eh. It made the point I wanted to make.Top line jobs look good but it's not. We're softening. Thus the rally today on "no rate hike likely."(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231006/9ce037f980f2636ade85d35feeef7ecb.jpg)That may be but as a little pro tip I’d never read another zerohedge tweet in the rest of my life if I was you.
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Ya, he's a dip crap.
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Post by: IPA4Me on October 06, 2023, 05:54:44 PM
Quote
+123k part time
-22k full time employees (3 m/m in a row
+151k 2nd or 3rd+ job holders.
+222k Unincorporated self employed (1099 gig workers)
Also, know this...
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1699362051334848837?t=tm0H3N1xl2LX7DPwVWOsyw&s=19
Post by: steve dave on October 26, 2023, 07:37:39 AM
https://twitter.com/josephpolitano/status/1717520041011241233?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: KITNfury on October 26, 2023, 09:07:15 AM
FOLKS WE ARE COOKIN’Fed seething
https://twitter.com/josephpolitano/status/1717520041011241233?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: steve dave on October 26, 2023, 09:25:59 AM
JEROME POWELL HATES THIS ONE SIMPLE TRICK!FOLKS WE ARE COOKIN’Fed seething
https://twitter.com/josephpolitano/status/1717520041011241233?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: steve dave on December 01, 2023, 11:02:13 AM
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1730630449368617125
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1730603857137320280
Post by: IPA4Me on December 01, 2023, 06:29:46 PM
Market: The eff you will.
Post by: steve dave on December 08, 2023, 07:43:29 AM
:excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited: :excited:
Post by: wetwillie on December 08, 2023, 08:12:30 AM
Post by: steve dave on December 08, 2023, 08:26:31 AM
I'll wait for the real jobs report from zero hedge thank you very muchYeah
https://twitter.com/bullandbaird/status/1733120236172222556
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Post by: IPA4Me on December 08, 2023, 10:31:56 AM
https://twitter.com/ProfitsTaken/status/1733132505564193163?t=DP4f6608D8f4mHy3zmvzAw&s=19
Post by: IPA4Me on December 13, 2023, 07:59:38 AM
Post by: steve dave on December 13, 2023, 08:45:13 AM
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Post by: IPA4Me on December 13, 2023, 09:09:16 AM
It’ll be unchangedPerhaps, I should've posted "Now we wait for the press conference at 230p and see how the market takes Jerome's words."
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I agree. No rate hike or cut.
Post by: cfbandyman on December 13, 2023, 10:53:06 AM
It’ll be unchangedPerhaps, I should've posted "Now we wait for the press conference at 230p and see how the market takes Jerome's words."
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I agree. No rate hike or cut.
Nor should it change, inflation is more or less in check, the economy is doing pretty decent, jobs is strong. Might as well keep it there until it looks like the economy is starting to look like it's going to lag.
Post by: steve dave on January 19, 2024, 12:34:58 PM
Post by: wetwillie on January 19, 2024, 12:46:07 PM
Post by: KITNfury on January 19, 2024, 07:41:37 PM
Did Jerome land this mottherfucker softly or whatI rough ridin' hope so, but I'm not ready to declare it a victory yet.
Post by: Spracne on January 19, 2024, 09:38:24 PM
Did Jerome land this mottherfucker softly or what
The Tangster? I feel like it's a little too early to say.
Post by: steve dave on January 26, 2024, 12:18:54 PM
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240126/c1ea62f8ddc543b48e9cc0c88931777f.jpg)
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Post by: Pete on January 26, 2024, 12:58:02 PM
What he did not plan on was the nerds basically inventing C-3PO’s for everyone.
Post by: wetwillie on January 26, 2024, 01:11:52 PM
Post by: ben ji on January 26, 2024, 01:32:28 PM
FOLKS!US of A is party rocking our face off and slamming so many hot chicks we decided to let our Nerdy lil bro Canada tag along and pick up any leftovers.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240126/c1ea62f8ddc543b48e9cc0c88931777f.jpg)
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Europe is still laying in their room nursing a 3 day hangover.
Post by: Pete on January 26, 2024, 04:32:11 PM
Post by: kim carnes on January 26, 2024, 04:50:38 PM
Post by: kim carnes on February 02, 2024, 02:48:24 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on February 02, 2024, 03:23:56 PM
Post by: mocat on February 02, 2024, 03:51:54 PM
I'd be shocked if we didn't have two quarters of bad earnings reporting.
I'm getting more and more bearish. Going to increase my ETF shorts over the next week in the rollover.
We're teetering on a big downturn. Hopefully tomorrow's House hearing will be a bit dovish and we can rip a few points. I'm swinging option calls for SPX.
Eh. Understand the technical terminology. Hard to get onboard with looming crap storms.What an insane bear market rally this has been.
it's officially a bull market as of early June
Would like to chop up one more level to $SPY 450 before a deep pullback as we rally into a recession.
Buckle up. We ain't done yet.
Post by: IPA4Me on February 02, 2024, 04:17:15 PM
Anywho, we'll break something eventually and when it does I'll still play the chart on the screen.
Post by: steve dave on February 02, 2024, 04:23:25 PM
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Post by: steve dave on February 02, 2024, 04:25:14 PM
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Post by: star seed 7 on February 02, 2024, 04:27:22 PM
Post by: wetwillie on February 02, 2024, 06:01:09 PM
I just buy VOO nonstop. It’s good!
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I've started mixing in some VOOG, am I an idiot?
Post by: steve dave on February 02, 2024, 06:04:22 PM
SETTLE DOWN!I just buy VOO nonstop. It’s good!
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I've started mixing in some VOOG, am I an idiot?
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Post by: michigancat on February 02, 2024, 06:16:49 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 02, 2024, 06:19:37 PM
I like to live on the wild side so I am all in on VTSAXThat one is actually very boring. Maybe loosen up square.
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Post by: catastrophe on February 02, 2024, 06:46:09 PM
Occasionally people ask me if there’s a reason I do that, and there is: I have no idea what I’m doing.
Post by: Pete on February 02, 2024, 11:39:19 PM
Post by: Pete on February 02, 2024, 11:44:07 PM
Every god damn nickel.
Post by: kim carnes on February 05, 2024, 11:05:40 AM
Post by: steve dave on February 05, 2024, 12:18:28 PM
Why don’t we all take the s&p strategy one step further and just put all of our money into the 10 largest companies?? We’re losing out on a lot of money.
STONKS
(https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021-10-Top-SP-500-Stocks-2-1536x1536.png)
(https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021-10-Top-SP-500-Stocks-3-1536x1536.png)
Post by: CNS on February 05, 2024, 12:19:54 PM
Post by: kim carnes on February 05, 2024, 12:24:23 PM
Post by: kim carnes on February 05, 2024, 12:26:15 PM
Post by: CNS on February 05, 2024, 01:02:32 PM
Post by: Pete on February 05, 2024, 04:21:05 PM
U gotta really understand stocks to understand what im proposing
I have no rough ridin' idea what you are trying to say, which is why I should stick to index fund investing I suppose.
Post by: Pete on February 05, 2024, 04:22:44 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on February 13, 2024, 08:51:35 AM
Post by: kim carnes on February 13, 2024, 10:57:21 AM
Post by: Stupid Fitz on February 16, 2024, 08:39:59 AM
Post by: Pete on February 22, 2024, 04:27:52 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 04:31:25 PM
If the S&P 500 beats inflation by 3% year over year for 12 years, I will hit my retirement goal. What do you investment cats think my odds are?Should get there
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Post by: wetwillie on February 22, 2024, 05:44:50 PM
If the S&P 500 beats inflation by 3% year over year for 12 years, I will hit my retirement goal. What do you investment cats think my odds are?
How close would you be if the market beats inflation by 6% the next five years on average.
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 06:39:54 PM
If the S&P 500 beats inflation by 3% year over year for 12 years, I will hit my retirement goal. What do you investment cats think my odds are?
How close would you be if the market beats inflation by 6% the next five years on average.
yeah, that's what you have to ask yourself. it beats inflation by 6%+ on avg. where will you be in 12 years with that return Pete? add a few extra feet to the pontoon imo.
Post by: kim carnes on February 22, 2024, 06:41:40 PM
Post by: kim carnes on February 22, 2024, 06:43:10 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 06:46:08 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 06:48:04 PM
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 06:49:47 PM
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
also she has one kid. I've wondered if she is secretly planning on him supporting her when she's old AF. If that's her plan she's in bigtime trouble because I've spent some time around the kid and he's a dumbshit.
Post by: kim carnes on February 22, 2024, 06:55:56 PM
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
also she has one kid. I've wondered if she is secretly planning on him supporting her when she's old AF. If that's her plan she's in bigtime trouble because I've spent some time around the kid and he's a dumbshit.
That plan is great if u end up dying of a heart attack at like 65, not great if your health slowly deteriorates to the point where you can’t work and need assistance
Post by: wetwillie on February 22, 2024, 06:56:07 PM
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Post by: catastrophe on February 22, 2024, 07:09:02 PM
Post by: Pete on February 22, 2024, 07:40:42 PM
I won’t be able to do that.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
My goal would be to be able to take out 4% of my retirement savings each year to use as my desired income level, and have enough saved to live until 85 (I won’t likely won’t live to be 80, based on genes).
Post by: Pete on February 22, 2024, 07:46:24 PM
So, if I earn 0.03 over inflation for 12 years then (1.03)^12 = 2.022469067498369 times my present value.
Post by: Pete on February 22, 2024, 07:49:49 PM
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Post by: wetwillie on February 22, 2024, 08:20:45 PM
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Post by: Pete on February 22, 2024, 08:25:32 PM
Post by: Pete on February 22, 2024, 08:30:28 PM
Post by: Pete on February 22, 2024, 08:43:06 PM
Post by: star seed 7 on February 22, 2024, 08:46:42 PM
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
I kind of get this. It was drilled into me by my parents to at the minimum get the match from the company and that's all I ever did. I also drained my 401k at 30 when I went back to school to pay living expenses and it sort of makes me sad how much that money would be worth now but yolo. I always figured if I'd have to work until I die, at least I'm enjoying myself now.
Post by: catastrophe on February 22, 2024, 08:47:22 PM
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Post by: Pete on February 22, 2024, 09:13:32 PM
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
Post by: bucket on February 22, 2024, 09:38:07 PM
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
My mom did that to keep her health insurance.
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 10:26:11 PM
most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
100% agree. Also I'm good at telling people these facts but not living them most likely. we'll see.
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 10:29:14 PM
Is there a chance that the 2020's end up similar to the 90's?
We just made new market highs. A great thing about that is that making a new market high is generally a good sign for the market.
(https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Screenshot-2024-02-07-094435.png)
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 10:31:25 PM
I know a lady roughly my same age who does pretty well salarywise but has zero retirement savings. just refuses to contribute to her 401k. she told me she plans to just work until she dies. would rather spend money now.
I kind of get this. It was drilled into me by my parents to at the minimum get the match from the company and that's all I ever did. I also drained my 401k at 30 when I went back to school to pay living expenses and it sort of makes me sad how much that money would be worth now but yolo. I always figured if I'd have to work until I die, at least I'm enjoying myself now.
Oh I for sure respect the crap out of it. It would stress me out but if you've committed to that path I imagine it would be pretty nice. By nature I am NOT laissez faire about anything.
Post by: steve dave on February 22, 2024, 10:33:32 PM
Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
Post by: star seed 7 on February 22, 2024, 11:31:39 PM
Post by: catastrophe on February 22, 2024, 11:41:58 PM
Part time at my current gig is a scam, for a similar reason. If someone is liked enough to get it, it’s cause everyone knows they’re going to end up working damn near as much as the FTEs.Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
Post by: steve dave on February 23, 2024, 12:14:37 AM
Yeah, this except I won’t expect it and he’ll just do it anyway. I’M THE “good” GUY!Part time at my current gig is a scam, for a similar reason. If someone is liked enough to get it, it’s cause everyone knows they’re going to end up working damn near as much as the FTEs.Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
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Post by: Stupid Fitz on February 23, 2024, 09:15:34 AM
Yeah, this except I won’t expect it and he’ll just do it anyway. I’M THE “good” GUY!Part time at my current gig is a scam, for a similar reason. If someone is liked enough to get it, it’s cause everyone knows they’re going to end up working damn near as much as the FTEs.Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
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Does he work from home? 2 days a week working from home plus half salary and benefits would be pretty enticing regardless. Just shut everything down those other days and if SD has a problem with that, peace out SD!!!!
Post by: steve dave on February 23, 2024, 09:17:22 AM
He comes into the office 2 days a week currently. We don’t live in the same city (he’s in KC) so I don’t actually ever see him.Yeah, this except I won’t expect it and he’ll just do it anyway. I’M THE “good” GUY!Part time at my current gig is a scam, for a similar reason. If someone is liked enough to get it, it’s cause everyone knows they’re going to end up working damn near as much as the FTEs.Or split the difference and move to part time work at some point. I’m not sure if/when I’ll fully retire but I’m planning to be done with full time work in about 5-8 years.I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
Just drop the number a bit. Time is the one thing you can never get more of.
Dude! A couple people where I work have done that lately and I just learned that they still get full benefits. I am totally going to go after that at some point, assuming I do not get crap canned before then.
One of my employees told me he's probably calling it at the end of 2024 and I plan to pitch this to him. 2 days a week at half salary is what I'm going to throw out there. Honestly it's a disservice to him because I know he'll give it 100%. He hasn't taken a day of PTO in the entire time he's worked for me where he hasn't been online 60%+ of the day handling crap.
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Does he work from home? 2 days a week working from home plus half salary and benefits would be pretty enticing regardless. Just shut everything down those other days and if SD has a problem with that, peace out SD!!!!
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Post by: steve dave on February 23, 2024, 09:34:29 AM
I just did the math and I’d have to beat inflation by 12.5% each year to hit my desired number in 6 years.most people in Pete's economic demographic over save for retirement. counterpoint like 50% of the population has zero savings for retirement.
I think our guy Pete should leave his job in 6 years or less.
in general people like you spend less money than they expect to in retirement. I hope that's not you and you live bigtime in retirement but that's generally what happens. people get scared and die with a pile of cash. that's a sad thing. even people who say "I want to leave it for my kids" aren't doing them a service imo. better to spend it on experiences with the kids while you're actually alive.
Post by: KITNfury on February 23, 2024, 09:36:46 AM
Post by: catastrophe on February 23, 2024, 09:43:08 AM
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
Post by: steve dave on February 23, 2024, 09:48:31 AM
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
mrs. dave and I both have very high stress but great gigs. hers has a shitload of opportunity to basically work 1/4 of the time in much less stressful roles with incredible benefits at some point. I've told her I'm retiring at 55 and she just needs to roll into one of those coast positions so we can get those bennys and we will be fine.
Post by: DaBigTrain on February 23, 2024, 09:58:00 AM
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
mrs. dave and I both have very high stress but great gigs. hers has a shitload of opportunity to basically work 1/4 of the time in much less stressful roles with incredible benefits at some point. I've told her I'm retiring at 55 and she just needs to roll into one of those coast positions so we can get those bennys and we will be fine.
Damn so you've only got like, 2-3 years left until you can retire?
Post by: wetwillie on February 23, 2024, 09:58:13 AM
Post by: Stupid Fitz on February 23, 2024, 10:05:36 AM
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
mrs. dave and I both have very high stress but great gigs. hers has a shitload of opportunity to basically work 1/4 of the time in much less stressful roles with incredible benefits at some point. I've told her I'm retiring at 55 and she just needs to roll into one of those coast positions so we can get those bennys and we will be fine.
This is what I would like to do, but don't really have the benefits figured out yet. We did a buyout recently and it wasn't as good as ones in the past but still decent. It still didn't get much traction because people don't want to lose their health insurance. Its such a rough ridin' scam to have to keep working your whole life just to keep insurance.
Post by: wetwillie on February 23, 2024, 10:13:38 AM
Post by: DaBigTrain on February 23, 2024, 10:14:17 AM
I'm working again. Quit my old job in 2020 but had an opportunity to work part time with potential high upside. Plus I needed some money lol.I’m kind of liking the idea of in about 5 years starting to jump to different harebrained schemes that friends of mine will occasionally do, just for some excitement and disposable income.
Sadly, navigating our ridiculous health insurance system (with dependents) would be by far the biggest hurdle with all that.
mrs. dave and I both have very high stress but great gigs. hers has a shitload of opportunity to basically work 1/4 of the time in much less stressful roles with incredible benefits at some point. I've told her I'm retiring at 55 and she just needs to roll into one of those coast positions so we can get those bennys and we will be fine.
This is what I would like to do, but don't really have the benefits figured out yet. We did a buyout recently and it wasn't as good as ones in the past but still decent. It still didn't get much traction because people don't want to lose their health insurance. Its such a rough ridin' scam to have to keep working your whole life just to keep insurance.
I literally can't lose my health insurance. The only way I can pay for my extremely expensive meds is with insurance. I got a statement last month showing all the charges for my meds last year, just over $250,000 before insurance. My meds are indefinite so that's every single year if they keep working. It's just insane, but I need them to live a normal life.
Post by: catastrophe on February 23, 2024, 10:43:33 AM
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
The problem is that even some of the pricier plans on the exchange do not cover basic things you would expect. Dental and vision being the biggest, but even then there are all kinds of weird carve outs for even the most expensive plans. Every once in a while when I dream about early retirement I look this up and decide all over again that I'll probably just be a Starbucks barista or Amazon delivery driver for the absolute minimum hours to get decent healthcare.
Post by: CNS on February 23, 2024, 11:20:38 AM
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
Post by: steve dave on February 23, 2024, 11:32:04 AM
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
I realize that's a lot of money but seems pretty reasonable for a male that age. Obviously don't know the deductible or program info or anything.
Post by: CNS on February 23, 2024, 11:33:51 AM
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
I realize that's a lot of money but seems pretty reasonable for a male that age. Obviously don't know the deductible or program info or anything.
It was a catastrophe plan. I think he said the deductable was $7k, didn't include vision or dental.
Post by: Spracne on February 23, 2024, 11:37:15 AM
Post by: star seed 7 on February 23, 2024, 11:50:01 AM
Post by: wetwillie on February 23, 2024, 11:54:16 AM
Post by: KITNfury on February 23, 2024, 12:05:01 PM
Post by: Justwin on February 23, 2024, 12:19:06 PM
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
I realize that's a lot of money but seems pretty reasonable for a male that age. Obviously don't know the deductible or program info or anything.
It was a catastrophe plan. I think he said the deductable was $7k, didn't include vision or dental.
A $7000 deductible is not a catastrophic plan. A catastrophic plan would be a minimum of a $25,000 deductible and more like a $50,000 deductible.
Post by: Justwin on February 23, 2024, 12:21:25 PM
I think I need double the money right now, adjusted for inflation.
So, if I earn 0.03 over inflation for 12 years then (1.03)^12 = 2.022469067498369 times my present value.
1.03^12 = 1.425760886846178945447841 times your PV. If you want need to double your money in 12 years (assuming no further contributions), you need to have a real return of roughly 6% (72/6 = 12).
Post by: CNS on February 23, 2024, 12:25:18 PM
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
A guy I know looked into this in October. He is 60yo and he said his was going to be $990/mo.
I realize that's a lot of money but seems pretty reasonable for a male that age. Obviously don't know the deductible or program info or anything.
It was a catastrophe plan. I think he said the deductable was $7k, didn't include vision or dental.
A $7000 deductible is not a catastrophic plan. A catastrophic plan would be a minimum of a $25,000 deductible and more like a $50,000 deductible.
To most Americans $7000 is a catastrophe. I get what you are saying, but it's situational, and probably semantics.
Post by: catastrophe on February 23, 2024, 12:37:36 PM
Post by: KITNfury on February 23, 2024, 12:42:19 PM
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Post by: Stupid Fitz on February 23, 2024, 01:49:19 PM
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
Post by: CNS on February 23, 2024, 01:55:14 PM
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Post by: Stupid Fitz on February 23, 2024, 02:22:22 PM
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Just looked at the place I went and the monthly for age 40-49 is $80. 50-59 is $90. Haven't looked at them in forever, but I think it covers quite a bit. Not positive, but i'm pretty sure they have an X-ray so pretty much any non emergency type thing can be handled there.
Post by: CNS on February 23, 2024, 02:30:18 PM
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Just looked at the place I went and the monthly for age 40-49 is $80. 50-59 is $90. Haven't looked at them in forever, but I think it covers quite a bit. Not positive, but i'm pretty sure they have an X-ray so pretty much any non emergency type thing can be handled there.
That's a rough ridin' steal!
Post by: Dugout DickStone on February 23, 2024, 02:52:32 PM
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
$1683
Post by: Spracne on February 23, 2024, 02:56:58 PM
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Just looked at the place I went and the monthly for age 40-49 is $80. 50-59 is $90. Haven't looked at them in forever, but I think it covers quite a bit. Not positive, but i'm pretty sure they have an X-ray so pretty much any non emergency type thing can be handled there.
I think you're talking about "concierge medicine." In my experience, you still have to pay for labs and imaging (and the like).
Post by: wetwillie on February 23, 2024, 04:20:18 PM
How much does a High Deductible plan run you on the open market right now?
$1683
Tell them to increase your premium to 1738
Post by: Stupid Fitz on February 23, 2024, 04:39:38 PM
If you have a little money, I think high deductible is definitely the way to go. The plans I reviewed would cap my out of pocket at $5-7.5k (or whatever) but pay 100% after that. So cancer or whatever shouldn't bankrupt a mfer, but you'll pay for maintenance you're not used to.
Just don't get screened for cancer 1 month before your insurance needs renewed.
Def something to consider. I used to go to a doctor out in Leawood that was one of those "Doctors for men!!!!" places. It was actually a pretty great place and I could call or chat pretty much whenever and get in right away. I mainly used them for an annual physical. Anyhoo, several years ago, they stopped taking insurance and went to a monthly tiered offering. It depended on your age and other factors, but you basically just paid a monthly fee and could come in whenever you wanted and get basic doctor stuff. They also help you figure out what kind of catastrophic plan you should get to go along with your monthly to them in case you had something bad happen to you. I wouldn't want this type of situation with kids or anything, but would def look into it without.
What do those plans run?
Just looked at the place I went and the monthly for age 40-49 is $80. 50-59 is $90. Haven't looked at them in forever, but I think it covers quite a bit. Not positive, but i'm pretty sure they have an X-ray so pretty much any non emergency type thing can be handled there.
I think you're talking about "concierge medicine." In my experience, you still have to pay for labs and imaging (and the like).
Yep, still might be a decent deal for a healthy person that just needs a minor thing every once in a while. This is what the membership covers apparently.
24/7 access to physician via phone/text and email
Same-day/next day in-office and “virtual” visits during regular office hours
Appointment length determined by patient (up to 60 minutes)
Office surgeries — lacerations, cysts, moles, skin tags, warts, etc.
Diagnostic/Screening Tests — Vision, hearing, spirometry, EKG
Annual Basic Health Assessment
"At Cost" pricing on all blood tests
Member discounts on diagnostic imaging (X-ray, CT scan, ultrasound, MRI)
Full-function online patient portal — a secure direct link to your information
Post by: wetwillie on February 23, 2024, 04:56:51 PM
Post by: Dugout DickStone on February 23, 2024, 05:04:36 PM
Post by: Pete on February 23, 2024, 05:34:25 PM
Yeah, I messed that up. The spreadsheet was right by my phone was not.I think I need double the money right now, adjusted for inflation.
So, if I earn 0.03 over inflation for 12 years then (1.03)^12 = 2.022469067498369 times my present value.
1.03^12 = 1.425760886846178945447841 times your PV. If you want need to double your money in 12 years (assuming no further contributions), you need to have a real return of roughly 6% (72/6 = 12).
3% over inflation for 12 years gets me to where I want to be if I also max out 401K over the next 12 years….then plan to take out 4% a year, leave 3 years or so in cash, and the rest in the S&P 500. We’ll see, so much can happen to change all of this.
Post by: catastrophe on February 23, 2024, 07:03:18 PM
If you can be treated over zoom you dont need a doctorZoom medicine exists solely to get prescriptions for stuff that should be OTC like drops for pinkeye.
Post by: Spracne on February 23, 2024, 07:21:00 PM
If you can be treated over zoom you dont need a doctorZoom medicine exists solely to get prescriptions for stuff that should be OTC like drops for pinkeye.
Boner pills, depression pills, anxiety pills, hair loss pills. All kinds of stuff, and it keeps expanding every day.
Post by: CNS on February 27, 2024, 09:00:29 PM
Post by: steve dave on March 07, 2024, 07:53:43 PM
Why don’t we all take the s&p strategy one step further and just put all of our money into the 10 largest companies?? We’re losing out on a lot of money.You are now
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Post by: wetwillie on March 07, 2024, 08:21:27 PM
Post by: Spracne on March 07, 2024, 08:22:11 PM
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?
The State of the Union is strong.
Post by: steve dave on March 07, 2024, 08:30:12 PM
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?WE BACK UP
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Post by: IPA4Me on March 08, 2024, 11:26:19 AM
Post by: steve dave on April 05, 2024, 07:49:09 AM
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Post by: Kat Kid on April 05, 2024, 08:35:19 AM
Going to have the steve dave talk with my wife.
Post by: Kat Kid on April 05, 2024, 08:36:29 AM
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?
not only is it possible, it is true!
Post by: CNS on April 05, 2024, 09:36:54 AM
I looked at my 401k today and it said my portfolio was up 30% YOY, that can't be right can it?
We are living in wild times. If Joey's market doesn't cool off, I will be retiring 3-4 years earlier than planned.
Post by: catastrophe on April 05, 2024, 09:39:06 AM
85 and out (retire at 58), a Roth, and then wait on Social Security if I am lucky enough to make it to 72.
Going to have the steve dave talk with my wife.
I think I need a translation for this.
Post by: wetwillie on April 05, 2024, 10:20:12 AM
Post by: catastrophe on April 05, 2024, 10:28:45 AM
He's retiring with full benefits from the state at 58. He's going to delay SS until 72. He needs to make sure his wife is on the work until 66 or older plan.
That helps greatly. Thank you.
Post by: Kat Kid on April 05, 2024, 11:20:42 AM
My number at 58 is actually 93 and realistically the variables are how my kids are doing, how my wife is doing, how the market is doing and how I am doing.
Hopefully by this time I have a clean water supply and a bunker ready for climate-geddon
Post by: kim carnes on April 05, 2024, 11:40:40 AM
Post by: steve dave on April 05, 2024, 11:45:43 AM
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Post by: catastrophe on April 05, 2024, 11:47:54 AM
I’d be pumped if I was like 40 yrs older than I am
Yeah, a strong economy now doesn't mean jack for my retirement, but it's nice to see nonetheless.
No idea when full retirement will happen for me, but I'm within a few years of my plan for semi-retirement (whatever job I can get with full benefits and as little actual work as possible).
Post by: Spracne on April 05, 2024, 12:36:00 PM
Great translation.
My number at 58 is actually 93 and realistically the variables are how my kids are doing, how my wife is doing, how the market is doing and how I am doing.
Hopefully by this time I have a clean water supply and a bunker ready for climate-geddon
Good call on the water. Most preppers neglect to adequately account for the most important thing they'll need. I recommend buying cisterns or, even better, drilling a producing well as soon as you can.
Post by: CNS on April 05, 2024, 01:23:20 PM
That said, if I was, I would buy exclusively water treatment stuff and guns/ammo. It takes up less storage than all that other stuff and, ultimately, why prep when you can overpower and take?
Post by: mocat on April 05, 2024, 01:26:07 PM
Post by: Spracne on April 05, 2024, 02:03:58 PM
I will just learn what type of humor preppers like and then get good at that so they keep me around for comic relief. I could travel from bunker to bunker delivering news of the outside world wrapped in a palatable package of (most likely) "men are from mars women are from venus" type humor
What was the recent movie where the guy travelled around in the 19th Century just reading the news of the day?
Post by: Spracne on April 05, 2024, 02:07:14 PM
Not a prepper.
That said, if I was, I would buy exclusively water treatment stuff and guns/ammo. It takes up less storage than all that other stuff and, ultimately, why prep when you can overpower and take?
My dad, nonpolitical corporate slave turned gun nut, was talking to me recently about a similar strategy. When I pointed out the flaw in his bug-out plan (water), he mentioned his neighbor had a well. And he was willing to ask cordially at first but also willing to commandeer by deadly force. (He believes the well actually lies in his property.)
Post by: steve dave on April 05, 2024, 02:35:26 PM
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Post by: catastrophe on April 05, 2024, 03:07:38 PM
It’s pretty wild how much of our society sits around planning for that stuff. I have an aunt and uncle who do. They have an entire basement filled with jarred preserved chickens and weird preserved food.If I was a prepper, my plan for the apocalypse would probably be coming up with the most peaceful way possible to die instead of trying to scrape through existing and being lucky not to starve to death assuming my gun toting neighbors didn’t shoot me first in order to get some potable water from my toilet to drink.
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Post by: Stupid Fitz on April 05, 2024, 03:17:50 PM
It’s pretty wild how much of our society sits around planning for that stuff. I have an aunt and uncle who do. They have an entire basement filled with jarred preserved chickens and weird preserved food.If I was a prepper, my plan for the apocalypse would probably be coming up with the most peaceful way possible to die instead of trying to scrape through existing and being lucky not to starve to death assuming my gun toting neighbors didn’t shoot me first in order to get some potable water from my toilet to drink.
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Same, I'd prob get a bunch of peanut butter or something to last the family for at least a little while to see how it shakes out, but if I got the sense that it was going to drag on and be like a complete restart, no way i'm dealing with the MAGA nuts. That would be like the only time I had any interest whatsoever in visiting the Grand Canyon.
Post by: CNS on April 05, 2024, 04:27:36 PM
Post by: Pete on April 05, 2024, 08:12:19 PM
I have always hoped that whatever meteor, nuke, etc that causes such an event, hit my house.Same
Post by: steve dave on April 05, 2024, 09:08:42 PM
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Post by: KITNfury on April 05, 2024, 10:21:29 PM
Post by: ben ji on April 05, 2024, 10:33:32 PM
It’s pretty wild how much of our society sits around planning for that stuff. I have an aunt and uncle who do. They have an entire basement filled with jarred preserved chickens and weird preserved food.You are going to love my newest FARM update I got from my dad....
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Post by: CNS on April 06, 2024, 11:17:53 AM
That makes sense .
Your grandpa hoarding beans in his tornado shelter doesn’t, imo.
Post by: Pete on May 01, 2024, 07:50:54 AM
Quote
Analysts say the weekly injection could post more than a billion dollars in sales in its first year on the market and potentially become the biggest drug of all time.
So, I tried a month of zepbound (my insurance covered it, luckily) and it’s a rough ridin' miracle drug (assume no future ass cancer etc). It’s out of stock everywhere tho and can’t reliably get more. They give you four shot thingys at a time (4 weeks worth).
Best way to describe its effect is that it makes me feel like I have just eaten a meal that was not too filling and am perfectly satisfied, like all the time. It tapers off by the end of a week, hence the weekly injection
Post by: steve dave on May 01, 2024, 08:01:25 AM
Post by: Pete on May 01, 2024, 08:02:20 AM
Post by: Pete on May 01, 2024, 08:04:52 AM
Post by: CNS on May 01, 2024, 08:06:38 AM
Post by: Pete on May 01, 2024, 08:13:06 AM
Coke needs to come up with their own version of the drug and just put it in coke. Same for Yum Brands, McD’s, etc.
It is truly transformative, and the impact to fast food and junk food will be immense. When I am on it, I have no craving for food. If you offer me something good to eat, I'll eat it and enjoy it, but I won't want more than a few ounces. I was viewing food more as fuel, and would just as soon pound a couple premier protein shakes as bother to eat a "meal."
Post by: wetwillie on May 01, 2024, 08:19:15 AM
Post by: KITNfury on May 01, 2024, 08:24:22 AM
Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 01, 2024, 08:54:12 AM
No judgment as I'm down 25 lbs and am still firmly in dad bod land, but it's crazy how humans basically struggled throughout our history to source adequate food and now even poor people have trouble staying thin.
Yeah, this is the crux of the issue. Humans are lazy as eff now and it will only get worse. As SD says, this will prob help "cure" a lot of diseases related to being a fatass which will be awesome. There will still be issues though. You still need to exercise so just taking a shot won't fix everything. This drug will still be a game changer..... until they find out it makes your wiener fall off when taken for 10 years consecutively.
Post by: CNS on May 01, 2024, 09:02:38 AM
Can you take it indefinitely? If not I don't see how it works long term.
The folks I know on one of these has been told by their doc that you can't get off it other wise the weight will all come back.
I don't know for sure, but I think that is probably not complete info, at best. I imagine it's like any diet where the weight comes back unless you make lifestyle changes.
Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 01, 2024, 09:19:51 AM
Can you take it indefinitely? If not I don't see how it works long term.
The folks I know on one of these has been told by their doc that you can't get off it other wise the weight will all come back.
I don't know for sure, but I think that is probably not complete info, at best. I imagine it's like any diet where the weight comes back unless you make lifestyle changes.
This is interesting. I just assumed barring a medical issue causing you to be overweight, you could take this and stop after a period. The drug companies obviously don't want you to do that at all though. If this works like people say and you can also exercise and eat better while taking, you are probably golden. Again, its really the person's self control barring a med issue. Like, plastic surgery also works awesome, but if you don't eat better and exercise after, its all coming back.
Post by: steve dave on May 01, 2024, 09:24:45 AM
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Post by: CNS on May 01, 2024, 09:26:33 AM
Can you take it indefinitely? If not I don't see how it works long term.
The folks I know on one of these has been told by their doc that you can't get off it other wise the weight will all come back.
I don't know for sure, but I think that is probably not complete info, at best. I imagine it's like any diet where the weight comes back unless you make lifestyle changes.
This is interesting. I just assumed barring a medical issue causing you to be overweight, you could take this and stop after a period. The drug companies obviously don't want you to do that at all though. If this works like people say and you can also exercise and eat better while taking, you are probably golden. Again, its really the person's self control barring a med issue. Like, plastic surgery also works awesome, but if you don't eat better and exercise after, its all coming back.
That info is what they say their primary care doc is saying, which means that is what the drug rep is saying, which means they drug rep just wants to keep selling their drug rather than ppl eating a salad instead of a 3rd, 4th, and 5th slice of pizza. That is my take, anyway.
Post by: CNS on May 01, 2024, 09:27:16 AM
https://twitter.com/yahoofinance/status/1785676405419708895?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Put it in the chicken. Tell ppl it's in the chicken. Watch sales go boom.
Post by: star seed 7 on May 01, 2024, 09:32:11 AM
Coke needs to come up with their own version of the drug and just put it in coke. Same for Yum Brands, McD’s, etc.
It is truly transformative, and the impact to fast food and junk food will be immense. When I am on it, I have no craving for food. If you offer me something good to eat, I'll eat it and enjoy it, but I won't want more than a few ounces. I was viewing food more as fuel, and would just as soon pound a couple premier protein shakes as bother to eat a "meal."
What about when you're super baked?
Post by: wetwillie on May 01, 2024, 09:51:24 AM
Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 01, 2024, 10:09:50 AM
I assume they have a finite window to use them because they either arent safe for continuous useage or the drug companies know they will lose efficacy in prolonged settings or both.
Yeah, this seems ripe for the potential, "we made 600 billion dollars, but got fined 2 billion dollars, because a bunch of wieners fell off after taking it for 10 years straight."
Oopsie, we totally won't do it again with the next drug that comes out.
Post by: steve dave on May 01, 2024, 10:13:46 AM
I assume they have a finite window to use them because they either arent safe for continuous useage or the drug companies know they will lose efficacy in prolonged settings or both.
they talk about this on CNBC all the time. my understanding from there is that there are still no known long term real negative side effects (acid reflux being the only one I've heard) and that the weight loss does plateau at some point (ie. you don't shrink to zero lbs) but that the efficacy doesn't seem to wane.
Post by: mocat on May 01, 2024, 10:15:41 AM
California glp1Coke needs to come up with their own version of the drug and just put it in coke. Same for Yum Brands, McD’s, etc.
It is truly transformative, and the impact to fast food and junk food will be immense. When I am on it, I have no craving for food. If you offer me something good to eat, I'll eat it and enjoy it, but I won't want more than a few ounces. I was viewing food more as fuel, and would just as soon pound a couple premier protein shakes as bother to eat a "meal."
What about when you're super baked?
Post by: wetwillie on May 01, 2024, 10:17:53 AM
Post by: steve dave on May 01, 2024, 10:21:03 AM
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Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 01, 2024, 10:39:10 AM
Well, good news, because apparently you can both keep the wiener and lose the weight
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:billdance:
Post by: sys on May 01, 2024, 11:05:18 AM
i think i'm gonna try to buy some of the oral version the next time i'm in mexico.
Post by: Pete on May 01, 2024, 11:28:31 AM
Having tried a glp1 drug, I am CONVINCED it’s the best way to live for me. I hope I have access to it, and the fund to afford it for the rest of my life.
Post by: Pete on May 01, 2024, 11:30:35 AM
https://twitter.com/yahoofinance/status/1785676405419708895?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQI only buy index funds, but if I had the money to take big bets, I’d bet this trend continues and I’d be shorting brands like this (assuming they have upticks against which to enter into a short!).
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Post by: IPA4Me on May 01, 2024, 12:39:18 PM
Post by: Pete on May 01, 2024, 12:43:21 PM
Post by: wetwillie on May 01, 2024, 12:46:40 PM
Inflation pressure killing that market while pizza and the like thrive. Look at places where $10 will cover a couple of meals. They're kicking ass.
Where will $10 cover two meals?
Post by: star seed 7 on May 01, 2024, 12:50:32 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on May 01, 2024, 12:54:58 PM
Domino's etcInflation pressure killing that market while pizza and the like thrive. Look at places where $10 will cover a couple of meals. They're kicking ass.
Where will $10 cover two meals?
Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 01, 2024, 01:10:28 PM
I have gained and lost weight many times in my life. Most of my 40’s I was very fit, but last few years after Covid I gained a ton. Using the GLP-1 helps me be happier while I lose the weight. I started trying to get back in shape in January and work out nearly every day, but using the glp1 drug allows me to reduce the agonizing struggle of hoarding and splurging on caloric “points” each day.
Having tried a glp1 drug, I am CONVINCED it’s the best way to live for me. I hope I have access to it, and the fund to afford it for the rest of my life.
Yep, this is the way to do it Pete. The issue is, many people will just take it not do anything else. It will still help them so that rules, but being active/exercising is still the best drug on the planet. You are going to be an elite specimen doing both, but i'm still not convinced your wiener isn't going to fall off in 10 years.
Post by: CNS on May 01, 2024, 01:55:22 PM
other than losing muscle as well as fat, i haven't heard of a single concern re. glp-1 use. on the contrary, every story that comes out on them is is like "welp, we found another thing these drugs cure without even trying".
i think i'm gonna try to buy some of the oral version the next time i'm in mexico.
I think the muscle loss could be prevented if you eat enough protein, unless there is something about the drug itself that makes protein vulnerable, the reason ppl lose it is because they aren't eating enough of it when they are in deficit. However, to do that you would have to track macros, and most folks aren't going to do that.
Pete, make sure you are getting enough protein.
Post by: steve dave on May 01, 2024, 02:04:09 PM
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Post by: Pete on May 14, 2024, 08:09:43 AM
I had to read this book a long time ago for Macro and it convinced me free trade was great.
https://www.amazon.com/Choice-Fable-Free-Trade-Protection/dp/0131433547
What am I missing? Cheap reliable electric cars seem like a huge win for everyone.
Post by: steve dave on May 14, 2024, 08:19:17 AM
What is the economic case for assessing 100% (Biden proposed) or even 200% (Trump proposed) tariffs on Chinese EV’s?
I had to read this book a long time ago for Macro and it convinced me free trade was great.
https://www.amazon.com/Choice-Fable-Free-Trade-Protection/dp/0131433547
What am I missing? Cheap reliable electric cars seem like a huge win for everyone.
tariffs are a tax on the country imposing them and stupid in almost every economic scenario.
Post by: sys on May 14, 2024, 03:02:46 PM
What is the economic case for assessing 100% (Biden proposed) or even 200% (Trump proposed) tariffs on Chinese EV’s?
I had to read this book a long time ago for Macro and it convinced me free trade was great.
https://www.amazon.com/Choice-Fable-Free-Trade-Protection/dp/0131433547
What am I missing? Cheap reliable electric cars seem like a huge win for everyone.
1. if you think china has unfairly subsidized their ev industry and you want to impose punitive tariffs to induce them to remove subsidies.
2. if you think china is a geopolitical adversary and the ev industry has strategic importance and you don't want us demand to be used to help subsidize the development of chinese heavy/semiconductor industry and/or you don't want us producers to be eliminated via competition with chinese producers.
since neither political party really believes in free trade currently, i think it's clearly the second one, although we might at times argue the first as a fig leaf.
Post by: pissclams on May 14, 2024, 05:54:43 PM
as per usual, sys nails itWhat is the economic case for assessing 100% (Biden proposed) or even 200% (Trump proposed) tariffs on Chinese EV’s?
I had to read this book a long time ago for Macro and it convinced me free trade was great.
https://www.amazon.com/Choice-Fable-Free-Trade-Protection/dp/0131433547
What am I missing? Cheap reliable electric cars seem like a huge win for everyone.
1. if you think china has unfairly subsidized their ev industry and you want to impose punitive tariffs to induce them to remove subsidies.
2. if you think china is a geopolitical adversary and the ev industry has strategic importance and you don't want us demand to be used to help subsidize the development of chinese heavy/semiconductor industry and/or you don't want us producers to be eliminated via competition with chinese producers.
since neither political party really believes in free trade currently, i think it's clearly the second one, although we might at times argue the first as a fig leaf.
Post by: Pete on May 14, 2024, 09:15:51 PM
Post by: Kat Kid on May 14, 2024, 09:35:13 PM
Post by: steve dave on May 14, 2024, 10:11:47 PM
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Post by: wetwillie on May 15, 2024, 08:26:35 AM
Post by: Pete on May 15, 2024, 08:43:28 AM
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2024-byd-shark-phev-pickup-truck-first-look-review/
Post by: Dugout DickStone on May 15, 2024, 02:13:20 PM
Didn't take SD for a commie, sad really.
major pinko actually
Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 15, 2024, 02:28:56 PM
Here’s a great example:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2024-byd-shark-phev-pickup-truck-first-look-review/
Yep, you wouldn't be able to get one fast enough if that was sold in the US. It's been obvious for a while that the big auto companies and dealers are delaying EV adoption as long as they can. That's why every EV that comes out looks like a shitty lego car instead of a normal looking car. Elon is a moron for lots of reasons but building the stupid cyber truck instead of something like this is up there for all time dumbass ideas.
Post by: pissclams on May 15, 2024, 03:20:56 PM
whoever invented the term, “two in the pink, one in the stink”, was referring to sd iyamDidn't take SD for a commie, sad really.
major pinko actually
Post by: Fedor on May 16, 2024, 08:08:48 AM
That thing has a lower towing capacity than a Nissan Pathfinder.Here’s a great example:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2024-byd-shark-phev-pickup-truck-first-look-review/
Yep, you wouldn't be able to get one fast enough if that was sold in the US. It's been obvious for a while that the big auto companies and dealers are delaying EV adoption as long as they can. That's why every EV that comes out looks like a shitty lego car instead of a normal looking car. Elon is a moron for lots of reasons but building the stupid cyber truck instead of something like this is up there for all time dumbass ideas.
Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 16, 2024, 08:20:54 AM
That thing has a lower towing capacity than a Nissan Pathfinder.Here’s a great example:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2024-byd-shark-phev-pickup-truck-first-look-review/
Yep, you wouldn't be able to get one fast enough if that was sold in the US. It's been obvious for a while that the big auto companies and dealers are delaying EV adoption as long as they can. That's why every EV that comes out looks like a shitty lego car instead of a normal looking car. Elon is a moron for lots of reasons but building the stupid cyber truck instead of something like this is up there for all time dumbass ideas.
I'd guess that an extremely large portion of truck owners rarely tow anything and the ones that do aren't looking for an electric vehicle. A truck with these exact specs put out by Ford or Chevy would sell out immediately in the US. This exact Chinese made truck would most likely sell out too.
Post by: steve dave on May 16, 2024, 08:43:25 AM
Post by: pissclams on May 16, 2024, 09:23:54 AM
i’m not sure who the market would be for this chinese made truck regardless of specs. but I can say with certainty that they’re not going to be taking much, if any, business from the ford buyers who have supported the f-series. i’d expect the same for chevy/gmc. these dudes don’t like or want electric and they’re especially TSC and not purchasing something from china.That thing has a lower towing capacity than a Nissan Pathfinder.Here’s a great example:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2024-byd-shark-phev-pickup-truck-first-look-review/
Yep, you wouldn't be able to get one fast enough if that was sold in the US. It's been obvious for a while that the big auto companies and dealers are delaying EV adoption as long as they can. That's why every EV that comes out looks like a shitty lego car instead of a normal looking car. Elon is a moron for lots of reasons but building the stupid cyber truck instead of something like this is up there for all time dumbass ideas.
I'd guess that an extremely large portion of truck owners rarely tow anything and the ones that do aren't looking for an electric vehicle. A truck with these exact specs put out by Ford or Chevy would sell out immediately in the US. This exact Chinese made truck would most likely sell out too.
Post by: pissclams on May 16, 2024, 09:25:21 AM
also, as an owner of a new american made pickup truck, I am an experti’m not sure who the market would be for this chinese made truck regardless of specs. but I can say with certainty that they’re not going to be taking much, if any, business from the ford buyers who have supported the f-series. i’d expect the same for chevy/gmc. these dudes don’t like or want electric and they’re especially TSC and not purchasing something from china.That thing has a lower towing capacity than a Nissan Pathfinder.Here’s a great example:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2024-byd-shark-phev-pickup-truck-first-look-review/
Yep, you wouldn't be able to get one fast enough if that was sold in the US. It's been obvious for a while that the big auto companies and dealers are delaying EV adoption as long as they can. That's why every EV that comes out looks like a shitty lego car instead of a normal looking car. Elon is a moron for lots of reasons but building the stupid cyber truck instead of something like this is up there for all time dumbass ideas.
I'd guess that an extremely large portion of truck owners rarely tow anything and the ones that do aren't looking for an electric vehicle. A truck with these exact specs put out by Ford or Chevy would sell out immediately in the US. This exact Chinese made truck would most likely sell out too.
Post by: wetwillie on May 16, 2024, 09:30:52 AM
Post by: steve dave on May 16, 2024, 09:33:08 AM
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Post by: cfbandyman on May 16, 2024, 09:48:20 AM
In other EV news a guy in my hood got a cyber truck and it’s the stupidest looking thing I’ve ever seen. Pictures and video don’t do justice to seeing this thing irl. It’s so lmao.
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Yeah I saw one irl for the first time last weekend in KC. Just horrifying stupid and worse irl.
Post by: Stupid Fitz on May 16, 2024, 10:08:31 AM
In other EV news a guy in my hood got a cyber truck and it’s the stupidest looking thing I’ve ever seen. Pictures and video don’t do justice to seeing this thing irl. It’s so lmao.
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Yep, I've seen a couple here in KC the past week or so. They are just terrible and I'm still amazed anyone thought it was a good idea. Apparently they are having crap tons of issues too.
Post by: CNS on May 16, 2024, 10:24:26 AM
i’m not sure who the market would be for this chinese made truck regardless of specs. but I can say with certainty that they’re not going to be taking much, if any, business from the ford buyers who have supported the f-series. i’d expect the same for chevy/gmc. these dudes don’t like or want electric and they’re especially TSC and not purchasing something from china.That thing has a lower towing capacity than a Nissan Pathfinder.Here’s a great example:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2024-byd-shark-phev-pickup-truck-first-look-review/
Yep, you wouldn't be able to get one fast enough if that was sold in the US. It's been obvious for a while that the big auto companies and dealers are delaying EV adoption as long as they can. That's why every EV that comes out looks like a shitty lego car instead of a normal looking car. Elon is a moron for lots of reasons but building the stupid cyber truck instead of something like this is up there for all time dumbass ideas.
I'd guess that an extremely large portion of truck owners rarely tow anything and the ones that do aren't looking for an electric vehicle. A truck with these exact specs put out by Ford or Chevy would sell out immediately in the US. This exact Chinese made truck would most likely sell out too.
I agree with this. I mean, show me one Chinese sticker of Calvin pissing on some other Chinese brand of vehicle.
Post by: Dugout DickStone on May 16, 2024, 10:58:14 AM
In other EV news a guy in my hood got a cyber truck and it’s the stupidest looking thing I’ve ever seen. Pictures and video don’t do justice to seeing this thing irl. It’s so lmao.
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multiple in and around my hood - Tesla dealership down the street on stateline and 100% canco they are ridiculous looking IRL
Post by: Brock Landers on May 16, 2024, 11:23:57 AM
In other EV news a guy in my hood got a cyber truck and it’s the stupidest looking thing I’ve ever seen. Pictures and video don’t do justice to seeing this thing irl. It’s so lmao.
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multiple in and around my hood - Tesla dealership down the street on stateline and 100% canco they are ridiculous looking IRL
I saw one on the mean streets of Topeka over the weekend and yeah somehow they are vastly dumber looking IRL than in pictures. I just don't get it.
Post by: pissclams on May 16, 2024, 11:29:28 AM
the Tesla dealership on State Line (also my hood) has a dozen or so on the lot. they are pretty ridiculous looking and I can’t imagine any serious person buying one. even worse than the looks, is the performance.In other EV news a guy in my hood got a cyber truck and it’s the stupidest looking thing I’ve ever seen. Pictures and video don’t do justice to seeing this thing irl. It’s so lmao.
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multiple in and around my hood - Tesla dealership down the street on stateline and 100% canco they are ridiculous looking IRL
pretty on brand for elon mush.
Post by: pissclams on May 16, 2024, 11:31:45 AM
Damn I thought you were sporting the new Broncohad it for a year and traded it in for a 24 f-150 raptor with the 37” performance package because I needed the best desert runner that $$ could buy for all of my desert racing I do 24/7/365
Post by: catastrophe on May 16, 2024, 01:18:20 PM
In other EV news a guy in my hood got a cyber truck and it’s the stupidest looking thing I’ve ever seen. Pictures and video don’t do justice to seeing this thing irl. It’s so lmao.Saw one on my commute a couple weeks back. I think it’s easily the most efficient way to communicate that you’re an easy mark.
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Post by: Spracne on May 17, 2024, 03:06:43 PM
Post by: Dugout DickStone on May 17, 2024, 03:26:03 PM
the Tesla dealership on State Line (also my hood) has a dozen or so on the lot. they are pretty ridiculous looking and I can’t imagine any serious person buying one. even worse than the looks, is the performance.In other EV news a guy in my hood got a cyber truck and it’s the stupidest looking thing I’ve ever seen. Pictures and video don’t do justice to seeing this thing irl. It’s so lmao.
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multiple in and around my hood - Tesla dealership down the street on stateline and 100% canco they are ridiculous looking IRL
pretty on brand for elon mush.
Hit that chopper for a prop tank last weekend and oldest stone saw the line on the west side of ther building and said look at this clown show
Post by: steve dave on May 24, 2024, 08:53:44 AM
other than losing muscle as well as fat, i haven't heard of a single concern re. glp-1 use. on the contrary, every story that comes out on them is is like "welp, we found another thing these drugs cure without even trying".Oh look, another thing these miracle drugs do
i think i'm gonna try to buy some of the oral version the next time i'm in mexico.
https://twitter.com/marketwatch/status/1793998757278720124?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: Pete on May 24, 2024, 12:31:40 PM
Post by: Pete on May 24, 2024, 12:32:28 PM
Post by: Pete on May 24, 2024, 12:32:47 PM
Post by: SondraHenfling on May 24, 2024, 03:02:09 PM
I think my penis is bigger since I started taking Zepbound.Interesting, I need to remember this product Zepbound, for a friend not for me.
Post by: SondraHenfling on May 24, 2024, 03:04:45 PM
No, no I think it’s bigger.Thanks for confirmation sir :crossfingers:
Post by: CNS on May 24, 2024, 04:16:22 PM
Post by: steve dave on May 24, 2024, 10:09:07 PM
Once these drugs are oral and hit companies like Hims for distribution, man, the world is going to change.
already have
Post by: bucket on June 03, 2024, 09:45:55 AM
What in the world is happening?
Post by: Stupid Fitz on June 03, 2024, 10:02:12 AM
Post by: bucket on June 03, 2024, 10:15:27 AM
Someone gave the Roaring Cat guy like 200m or he won the lottery within the past couple of years.
$180 million in GME :ROFL:
Post by: steve dave on June 03, 2024, 10:15:52 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GPJ5IkTakAEkHwr?format=jpg&name=large)Technical glitch at NYSE
What in the world is happening?
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Post by: Pete on June 03, 2024, 10:47:00 AM
Post by: steve dave on June 03, 2024, 11:57:46 AM
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Post by: Stupid Fitz on June 03, 2024, 01:30:18 PM
Post by: ben ji on June 03, 2024, 07:18:07 PM
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1797770237447729360?t=grw19uDArV-BB8IIkLWyww&s=19
Post by: Stupid Fitz on June 03, 2024, 07:55:46 PM
Imagine trying to explain this to someone from 2004 , why an international news organization is reporting on someone named "Roaring Kitty" in regards to the stock market.
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1797770237447729360?t=grw19uDArV-BB8IIkLWyww&s=19
I just wish he didn't have the kitty name and they had to use his WSB name.
Post by: mocat on June 03, 2024, 10:02:56 PM
I bought some apple shares one day and then later on that night it was announced that Jobs died. I remember laughing that of all days to buy some Apple, I picked the day the founder would die. Still have those shares. :billdance:That is incredible
Post by: IPA4Me on June 06, 2024, 07:07:13 PM
Not me. I didn't join the party. I'll be slamming ES futures to Valhalla.
Post by: steve dave on June 06, 2024, 07:30:48 PM
Little money humor there folks.
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Post by: DaBigTrain on June 07, 2024, 11:05:39 AM
Post by: Stupid Fitz on June 07, 2024, 12:46:07 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on June 07, 2024, 01:40:50 PM
Post by: DaBigTrain on June 07, 2024, 01:50:39 PM
Post by: IPA4Me on June 07, 2024, 01:56:40 PM
When he was late, my buddy bought puts. 22 to 250 in nothing flat.
Post by: CNS on June 07, 2024, 02:05:59 PM
GME down 35% today. This is all just so hilariously dumb.
I saw that and assumed that was the RoaringKitty dump since he posted his position last night and scheduled a live stream for today. If I was him, I would have dumped part of my position in between the two, if I was wanting to use a bunch of suckers to 4x my money in a week.
Post by: Pete on June 12, 2024, 08:33:34 AM
Quote
World faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of decade, energy watchdog warns
IEA predicts more than 8mn b/d of excess capacity by 2030 as producers invest in pumping more crude
https://www.ft.com/content/cfb97534-b71b-490f-b626-6dc3487f595d
What impact does this likely have on the U.S. economy?
Post by: CNS on June 12, 2024, 08:51:50 AM
Maybe, this expected glut will strengthen out hand in this bullshittery.
Post by: Kat Kid on June 12, 2024, 09:17:25 AM
I’m not confident that peak oil is behind us, but if it is then that is great for the economy and inflation.QuoteWorld faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of decade, energy watchdog warns
IEA predicts more than 8mn b/d of excess capacity by 2030 as producers invest in pumping more crude
https://www.ft.com/content/cfb97534-b71b-490f-b626-6dc3487f595d
What impact does this likely have on the U.S. economy?
Post by: Pete on June 12, 2024, 02:26:43 PM
Excellent.I’m not confident that peak oil is behind us, but if it is then that is great for the economy and inflation.QuoteWorld faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of decade, energy watchdog warns
IEA predicts more than 8mn b/d of excess capacity by 2030 as producers invest in pumping more crude
https://www.ft.com/content/cfb97534-b71b-490f-b626-6dc3487f595d
What impact does this likely have on the U.S. economy?
Might delay EV adoption I suppose.
Post by: steve dave on July 12, 2024, 05:30:07 AM
other than losing muscle as well as fat, i haven't heard of a single concern re. glp-1 use. on the contrary, every story that comes out on them is is like "welp, we found another thing these drugs cure without even trying".
i think i'm gonna try to buy some of the oral version the next time i'm in mexico.
oh look, another thing these miracle drugs do.
https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/1811682469856367078
Post by: CNS on July 12, 2024, 07:38:03 AM
Post by: Pete on July 12, 2024, 12:50:23 PM
Zepbound and Mounjaro share the same active ingredient (tirzepatide), and Ozempic and Wegovy share a different active ingredient (semaglutide).
Post by: wetwillie on July 12, 2024, 12:55:02 PM
Post by: CNS on July 12, 2024, 01:26:22 PM
Post by: KITNfury on July 12, 2024, 03:26:38 PM
Post by: kim carnes on July 12, 2024, 03:38:18 PM
Post by: kstate4life on July 12, 2024, 04:46:58 PM
If we were just looking to suppress people’s appetites as a means of weight loss we should’ve had everyone on adderall decades ago lmao
We would have flying cars by now too!
Post by: Pete on July 15, 2024, 08:13:54 AM
Peggy Po: what a luxurious position we Americans are in that we can be in the midst of a stellar SP500 year despite high rates. If/when we see a pullback, we still have the lever available to drop rates and nudge this bitch back up to speed, regardless of who is president.
Post by: steve dave on July 15, 2024, 10:06:25 AM
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Post by: Pete on July 15, 2024, 11:47:33 AM
Post by: kim carnes on July 15, 2024, 01:37:34 PM
Post by: wetwillie on July 15, 2024, 02:24:40 PM
Post by: Pete on July 15, 2024, 02:32:19 PM
Post by: Justwin on July 15, 2024, 04:29:55 PM
A lot of my feeling about the macroeconomy is based on fireworks sales. It is a very discretionary purchase that gives some insight into how consumers are feeling. This year, sales were up about 20% compared to last year. This increase in sales is likely due to the 4th being on a Thursday rather than a Tuesday. However, I think that consumers are not fully pulling back, but are really searching for lower priced items. Fireworks that were markedly lower in price this year compared to last year sold much better than fireworks that were just a little lower priced. All fireworks were lower in price this year than last year, but some more than others. On average I would say prices were 15-20% lower than last year. Given that fireworks are much higher in price now than they were in 2020 (about 65% higher), we are likely on a fairly elastic portion of the demand curve. The drop in prices this year resulted in an increase in revenue. The overall point being, while consumers have some willingness to spend, they are really searching for lower prices and are not willing to spend on things that remain elevated in price.
This indicates a slowing economy where consumers are cautiously confident and are fatigued by higher prices. This behavior, along with a softening labor market, gives the Federal Reserve some room to lower their target for the fed funds rate. However, I believe the FOMC will be very reticent to lower interest rates too much and they will avoid giving inflation any oxygen to start burning again. As I predicted, not on here, but to my classes, the FOMC was about 6-12 months too late in starting to raise their target for the fed funds rate. They know this now and will err on the side of too restrictive policy until March of 2025.
Once we hit March of 2025, I would look for five more rate cuts in 2025. A slow, gradual easing of monetary policy that results in a target range of 3.50% - 3.75% as we go into 2026.
Post by: CNS on July 15, 2024, 04:39:16 PM
Post by: Pete on July 17, 2024, 08:46:26 AM
More encouraging market news from the drug dealersother than losing muscle as well as fat, i haven't heard of a single concern re. glp-1 use. on the contrary, every story that comes out on them is is like "welp, we found another thing these drugs cure without even trying".
i think i'm gonna try to buy some of the oral version the next time i'm in mexico.
oh look, another thing these miracle drugs do.
https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/1811682469856367078
https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/sleep-apnea-weight-loss-drugs-00373f21
Quote
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, the drugs’ makers, are betting insurers that have been resistant to covering weight-loss treatment will be more inclined to reimburse for other uses. That is why the companies are sponsoring studies evaluating the medicines for a range of applications, from treating heart, kidney and liver disease to Alzheimer’s and sleep apnea….
….Validation that the drugs work in sleep apnea alone would mean, Jefferies analysts estimate, $5 billion in additional sales for Zepbound. For tens of thousands of people seeking to take one of the drugs, it would also mean the difference between filling a prescription or not.
Post by: Pete on July 17, 2024, 08:47:53 AM
Quote
Shares of Swiss pharma giant Roche climbed Wednesday after it reported promising results for an experimental weight loss pill, part of a cohort of hopeful competitors racing to challenge Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly in the burgeoning diabetes and obesity drug market amid growing evidence the drugs can treat many other health conditions like kidney disease and sleep apnea.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2024/07/17/roche-climbs-as-once-daily-weight-loss-pill-shows-promise/
Post by: kim carnes on August 02, 2024, 10:11:09 AM
Sell now while you still can
It’s too late for you now, may god have mercy on all your souls
Post by: steve dave on August 12, 2024, 03:33:13 PM
Well, good news, because apparently you can both keep the wiener and lose the weightThe wiener actually gets more bonery apparently
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
https://x.com/wsj/status/1823090900907507940?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: Stupid Fitz on August 12, 2024, 03:58:21 PM
Well, good news, because apparently you can both keep the wiener and lose the weightThe wiener actually gets more bonery apparently
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
https://x.com/wsj/status/1823090900907507940?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Less fat, better sleep, bigger boners...is there anything this drug can't do?
Post by: CNS on August 13, 2024, 07:41:00 AM
Well, good news, because apparently you can both keep the wiener and lose the weightThe wiener actually gets more bonery apparently
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
https://x.com/wsj/status/1823090900907507940?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Less fat, better sleep, bigger boners...is there anything this drug can't do?
Iirc, they are also saying increase in cognitive abilities. So, no, it seems to hit all the biggies.
Post by: KITNfury on August 13, 2024, 07:12:39 PM
Post by: sys on August 13, 2024, 10:08:18 PM
Reports of it helping people beat addictions, too.
i mostly consider that a negative, tbh.
Post by: KITNfury on August 14, 2024, 08:40:43 AM
You can always watch the wagon roll by, I don't think you're handcuffed to the jockey box.Reports of it helping people beat addictions, too.
i mostly consider that a negative, tbh.
Post by: steve dave on August 23, 2024, 09:08:27 AM
https://x.com/thetranscript_/status/1826984520484073791?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
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Post by: steve dave on August 23, 2024, 09:31:59 AM
He’s too confident (cocky?)
https://x.com/thetranscript_/status/1826984520484073791?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
counterpoint
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVrDqJ0WAAAhjDq?format=jpg&name=medium)
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on August 23, 2024, 11:43:59 AM
Post by: steve dave on August 23, 2024, 11:49:48 AM
Should 2% be the target? Seems a little low to me.Agree. 3 seems right.
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Post by: steve dave on August 23, 2024, 01:52:39 PM
He’s too confident (cocky?)
https://x.com/thetranscript_/status/1826984520484073791?s=46&t=odWzhuZU7P443NcVwlC1iQ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
counterpoint
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVrDqJ0WAAAhjDq?format=jpg&name=medium)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVrCQhsXAAEPy16?format=png&name=small)
Post by: Justwin on August 24, 2024, 10:30:17 AM
Should 2% be the target? Seems a little low to me.
2% is plenty high.
Ideally the inflation target would be 0%, but you don't want to have inflation come in a little below your target and then get stuck in a deflationary cycle.
Post by: pissclams on August 24, 2024, 10:43:57 AM
Post by: pissclams on August 24, 2024, 10:44:09 AM
Post by: pissclams on August 24, 2024, 11:30:09 AM
Post by: Spracne on August 24, 2024, 11:37:24 AM
half a point?? who knows what that damn fed is going to do!?
25 basis points is what my pigeon entrails told me this morrow.
Post by: wetwillie on August 24, 2024, 12:09:08 PM
Post by: cfbandyman on August 24, 2024, 12:38:25 PM
half a point?? who knows what that damn fed is going to do!?
25 basis points is what my pigeon entrails told me this morrow.
Yeah no way they go half a point, .25 is what they'll do and walk it in from there.
Post by: CNS on August 24, 2024, 02:59:36 PM
Post by: steve dave on August 24, 2024, 04:04:44 PM
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Post by: pissclams on August 24, 2024, 05:06:36 PM
Go back to zero for one cycle only, as a little treatthat’s what I want to happen. i’m going to try and dm jerome on ig.
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Post by: KITNfury on August 24, 2024, 09:36:52 PM
Post by: CNS on August 25, 2024, 08:20:29 AM
Post by: wetwillie on August 25, 2024, 09:02:20 AM
Post by: CNS on August 25, 2024, 10:36:37 AM
Bring back the no loans. No money, no job, no problem.
And no down payment
Post by: kim carnes on August 26, 2024, 11:26:40 AM
Sell now while you still can
God is giving you a second chance
Post by: wetwillie on August 26, 2024, 11:37:54 AM
Post by: Kat Kid on August 26, 2024, 12:02:58 PM
Should 2% be the target? Seems a little low to me.
2% is plenty high.
Ideally the inflation target would be 0%, but you don't want to have inflation come in a little below your target and then get stuck in a deflationary cycle.
The hilarious thing about the inflation targets and dot plots and crap is it is basically just a confidence game between Powell and the fed bank crew and the street. As close as you can get to just straight up poker. The community cards are the economic data.
And half the time thee isn't even an actual change announced, (how long has the fed target been 2%?!) it is just Jerome doing a little talk and hinting at something about a future change.
Post by: kim carnes on August 26, 2024, 01:03:16 PM
Imagine not being bullish on the long term US economy
We’re in dire straits
Post by: Justwin on August 26, 2024, 02:27:04 PM
Should 2% be the target? Seems a little low to me.
2% is plenty high.
Ideally the inflation target would be 0%, but you don't want to have inflation come in a little below your target and then get stuck in a deflationary cycle.
The hilarious thing about the inflation targets and dot plots and crap is it is basically just a confidence game between Powell and the fed bank crew and the street. As close as you can get to just straight up poker. The community cards are the economic data.
And half the time thee isn't even an actual change announced, (how long has the fed target been 2%?!) it is just Jerome doing a little talk and hinting at something about a future change.
I'm not following you. Why would there be a change in the target rate for inflation? The target rate has been 2% for a long time and probably will continue to be 2% for the foreseeable future. I'm pretty sure the ECB and many other central banks use a 2% target for inflation as well.
Post by: Kat Kid on August 28, 2024, 06:00:17 AM
I’m aware the long term inflation target has been 2% for a long time. I was just saying the amount of theatre surrounding Powell’s signaling is funny to me. Why not embrace it and get some witches or animal entrails or give Jerome a staff and cloak?Should 2% be the target? Seems a little low to me.
2% is plenty high.
Ideally the inflation target would be 0%, but you don't want to have inflation come in a little below your target and then get stuck in a deflationary cycle.
The hilarious thing about the inflation targets and dot plots and crap is it is basically just a confidence game between Powell and the fed bank crew and the street. As close as you can get to just straight up poker. The community cards are the economic data.
And half the time thee isn't even an actual change announced, (how long has the fed target been 2%?!) it is just Jerome doing a little talk and hinting at something about a future change.
I'm not following you. Why would there be a change in the target rate for inflation? The target rate has been 2% for a long time and probably will continue to be 2% for the foreseeable future. I'm pretty sure the ECB and many other central banks use a 2% target for inflation as well.
Post by: CNS on September 01, 2024, 08:40:12 AM
Quote
Ozempic could delay ageing, researchers suggest
Post by: steve dave on September 01, 2024, 09:21:33 AM
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Post by: wetwillie on September 01, 2024, 10:50:03 AM
Post by: Pete on September 01, 2024, 05:10:37 PM
How much of this stuff you guys taking daily?One shot a week of 5mg (zepbound).
Post by: wetwillie on September 01, 2024, 06:04:29 PM
Post by: steve dave on September 01, 2024, 07:30:41 PM
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Post by: Pete on September 02, 2024, 07:07:07 AM
Post by: steve dave on September 06, 2024, 07:32:19 AM
(https://s.abcnews.com/images/Business/jerome-powell-1-rt-bb-230322_1679509816533_hpMain_16x9_1600.jpg)
Post by: steve dave on September 06, 2024, 07:35:18 AM
Post by: Spracne on September 18, 2024, 01:03:01 PM
WE'RE DOING HALF POINTS BOYS
CONFIRMED
Post by: CNS on September 18, 2024, 01:08:47 PM
Post by: DaBigTrain on September 18, 2024, 01:34:54 PM
Post by: bucket on September 18, 2024, 05:51:54 PM
Post by: wetwillie on September 18, 2024, 06:08:06 PM
Post by: steve dave on September 18, 2024, 06:08:47 PM
Basis points is one of my favorite medium fancy finance words
we refer to them in convo as "bips" :D
Post by: Justwin on September 18, 2024, 06:30:01 PM
WE'RE DOING HALF POINTS BOYS
CONFIRMED
I'm pretty surprised they're being this aggressive. The FOMC is definitely valuing the full employment aspect of their mandate over the price stability part.
Post by: steve dave on September 18, 2024, 06:37:34 PM
Post by: cfbandyman on September 18, 2024, 06:49:59 PM
Post by: wetwillie on September 18, 2024, 07:21:15 PM
Basis points is one of my favorite medium fancy finance words
we refer to them in convo as "bips" :D
That's even hotter, I'm swooning.
Post by: steve dave on September 19, 2024, 03:05:50 PM
Post by: Pete on October 04, 2024, 08:25:19 AM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-crushes-expectations-as-us-economy-adds-254000-jobs-unemployment-rate-falls-to-41-123503927.html
RED HOT!
Post by: wetwillie on October 04, 2024, 08:45:45 AM
Post by: Pete on October 04, 2024, 08:59:19 AM
Post by: Pete on October 22, 2024, 03:48:00 PM
Post by: steve dave on October 22, 2024, 07:26:53 PM
This rough ridin' crap from Goldman about a decade’s worth of flat S&P returns is not cool, man.
pete, we're fine
https://x.com/awealthofcs/status/1848767831229243876
https://x.com/awealthofcs/status/1845828903996137514
Post by: Pete on October 23, 2024, 08:43:26 AM
Post by: wetwillie on October 23, 2024, 12:36:11 PM
Post by: Pete on January 23, 2025, 06:36:12 AM
Quote
Here’s the speculative return ranges in real terms for the SP500:
1. Negative Annualized Return (<0%)
• Probability: 10-15% (higher likelihood than nominal)
• If inflation averages 3%–4% annually and nominal returns are in the 0%-4% range, real returns would likely fall below 0%. Stagflation or prolonged economic weakness would drive this scenario.
2. Low Real Return (0%-3%)
• Probability: 30-40%
• Real returns in this range occur when nominal returns are moderate (4%-7%), but inflation erodes a significant portion. This is common during periods of average inflation and steady (but unspectacular) economic growth.
3. Moderate Real Return (3%-6%)
• Probability: 30-35%
• This would require nominal returns of 6%-9% with inflation at its historical average. A scenario like this aligns with periods of stable growth and moderate market valuations.
4. High Real Return (6%-9%)
• Probability: 10-15%
• Nominal returns of 9%-12% with controlled inflation (<2%) could deliver these outcomes. These periods often occur after economic recoveries or during technological booms.
5. Exceptional Real Return (>9%)
• Probability: <5%
• Exceptional real returns would require very high nominal returns (12%+) and subdued inflation (<1%). Historically, these are rare and typically seen during explosive technological innovation or recovery from severe downturns.
Inflation’s Impact on Real Returns
Inflation is a key factor when considering long-term outcomes:
• High inflation periods (e.g., 1970s): Even with decent nominal returns, real returns can drop significantly.
• Low inflation or deflation: Nominal returns tend to translate closely into real returns, increasing purchasing power.
Summarized Likelihood (Real Returns)
• Negative real return (<0%): 10-15%
• Low real return (0%-3%): 30-40%
• Moderate real return (3%-6%): 30-35%
• High real return (6%-9%): 10-15%
• Exceptional real return (>9%): <5%
This is ChatGPT’s opinion when asked to speculate about real returns for the SP500 for the next 10-12 years.
Post by: Pete on January 23, 2025, 06:50:01 AM
Year,S&P 500 Total Return (%)
1985,31.73
1986,18.67
1987,5.25
1988,16.61
1989,31.69
1990,-3.10
1991,30.47
1992,7.62
1993,10.08
1994,1.32
1995,37.58
1996,22.96
1997,33.36
1998,28.58
1999,21.04
2000,-9.10
2001,-11.89
2002,-22.10
2003,28.68
2004,10.88
2005,4.91
2006,15.79
2007,5.49
2008,-37.00
2009,26.46
2010,15.06
2011,2.11
2012,16.00
2013,32.39
2014,13.69
2015,1.38
Post by: Pete on January 23, 2025, 06:54:51 AM
In my opinion it has to be vast creative adoption of AI in ways that we may not be imagining presently. Uses that really do create new market offerings and/or huge productivity gains for large companies.
There would also need to be new investor entrants to the market, wouldn’t there? Lots of people are saying “there is very little money on the sidelines” but I have no idea if that is accurate. Where does the money come from to keep hitting at least the historical average return?
Post by: mocat on January 23, 2025, 09:09:30 AM
I WANT to believe that 2025 like 1991 and we have a decade a head of us of exuberance and inflows, but can’t escape the feeling that 2025 is more like 1998 or 1999
what bubble is about to burst?
Post by: Pete on January 23, 2025, 12:06:43 PM
The talking points are typically that valuations are currently too high and that there is little money left “out there” to keep things escalating in value.I WANT to believe that 2025 like 1991 and we have a decade a head of us of exuberance and inflows, but can’t escape the feeling that 2025 is more like 1998 or 1999
what bubble is about to burst?
So would argue that crypto is the “bubble,” but I suppose you could argue the opposite side and say that if folks cash out of cryptocurrencies they may move to stonks and lift the SP500?
Post by: Kat Kid on January 23, 2025, 03:17:20 PM
Post by: Pete on January 23, 2025, 04:54:55 PM
No one, least of all ChatGPT, knows.Oh I wouldn’t say least of all.
Post by: michigancat on January 23, 2025, 05:55:59 PM
Post by: Pete on January 23, 2025, 07:36:12 PM
When did chatgpt get updated data? I thought they were a couple years behindNah, the latest models search the web and aren’t stuck on the last round of training data. Think of it as a news and opinion aggregator. You can ask it to speculate on all kinds of stuff and give you percentages then ask why it chose those percentages (though it usually gives you the full breakdown of reasons).