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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on April 01, 2020, 10:22:45 PM
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
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You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
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While the numbers and this thread provide further evidence that KSUW is an out of touch, piece of crap, disgraceful human being. I don’t want to lose sight that while these are numbers, each +1 emotional effects someone. KSUW and others like him have contributed to the grieve of each individual family.
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how's your sister doing, tbt?
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how's your sister doing, tbt?
Fully recovered. Tested negative(I may have partially lied about having retesting numbers in another thread). Is now volunteering to help others get food who can’t leave their homes.
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that's great. happy for you.
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:thumbs:
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just 7392 as we close the books on 4/3/2020. anyone who had before the 5th looks to be out of luck.
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just 7392 as we close the books on 4/3/2020. anyone who had before the 5th looks to be out of luck.
Do these numbers get updated real time or the day after?
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kaz dub and dax are wrong about literally everything. You could make money off hammering the opposite of their thoughts.
I just wonder if they say this dumb ass crap at work then have to go back to work and their bosses are like "yeah, that guy deserves a raise"
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I think what boggles the mind more is bookie pimp saying 12,000 swine flu deaths was insurmountable as we continue to lose >1000 people a day.
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
...
You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
To be fair, when he made this post the government officials in NY also thought it was a mild flu as they didn’t issue a stay at home order until 4 days later and they’re the primary driver behind this count.
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He was also making that post as an argument that this was a mild flu and that nobody anywhere actually needs to stay home.
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I think what boggles the mind more is bookie pimp saying 12,000 swine flu deaths was insurmountable as we continue to lose >1000 people a day.
He cruises off to epoch times to find a talking point.
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They are both rough ridin' idiots.
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Do these numbers get updated real time or the day after?
i'm getting the number off of worldometers. it gets updated until like 8 or 9 pm pacific time and it does change throughout the day, but i have no idea how much lag there is from when someone dies to when it shows up there.
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tomorrow is sunday and it has seemed in the past like some numbers (not sure on deaths) get underreported on sundays, so if anyone took that into consideration in their answer, congratulations to them.
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maybe i remembered wrong on when the worldometer numbers roll over. at any rate, they appear to have already closed the door on 4/4 with the us at 8452. i'll get a total at midnight cst for official goEMAW use, but it looks to be touch and go on getting to 10k tomorrow. if there's any delayed reporting due to the weekend at all, probably not going to hit the mark.
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officially 8454 at the end of 4/4.
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johns hopkins has it at 8499. if either site gets to 10k tomorrow (cst), i'll count it.
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https://twitter.com/BitcoinBrains/status/1246841596936511488?s=20
https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-tells-hospitals-list-covid-cause-death-even-just-assuming-contributed/
With the CDC telling hospitals to claim ALL deaths as COVID-19, how does that play into this "statistic"? Asking for a friend.
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The sources cited in that link suggest these are flu deaths, which I certainly hope would go down based on drastic measures of slowing the spread of viruses.
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The sources cited in that link suggest these are flu deaths, which I certainly hope would go down based on drastic measures of slowing the spread of viruses.
Well, that AND the fact that virtually ALL deaths are now being designated as COVID-19 deaths per the CDC even if only "assumed".
Interestingly, we are down 15k per week flu deaths and only 9,420 total COVID-19 deaths. So, if we assume this quarantine has been going on for 3 weeks now, then we are plus 35K lives and this "pandemic" has been a real lifesaver in the bigger scheme of things.
Maybe you socialist MF'ers are right... We should never go back to work and just let the government send out checks forever. :dunno:
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Link to the "we are down 15k flu deaths per week" claim?
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Link to the "we are down 15k flu deaths per week" claim?
crap, I dunno... I thought it was "all deaths".
castastrophe claimed its just flu deaths per the links in the infographic above.
Either way, this pandemic has saved a crap ton of lives, amirite?
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Link to the "we are down 15k flu deaths per week" claim?
i think they are talking about both a link bp left in the coronavirus thread and the graphic here and mixing them up a bit. didn't open the link, so not positive.
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Link to the "we are down 15k flu deaths per week" claim?
i think they are talking about both a link bp left in the coronavirus thread and the graphic here and mixing them up a bit. didn't open the link, so not positive.
Yeah, it doesn't make sense. That would mean more flu deaths in a month than in a typical flu season.
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Link to the "we are down 15k flu deaths per week" claim?
i think they are talking about both a link bp left in the coronavirus thread and the graphic here and mixing them up a bit. didn't open the link, so not positive.
The truth is... NOBODY rough ridin' KNOWS how many deaths there are due to COVID-19.
We've got Governors (CT) claiming infants died of COVID-19 when the child was smothered by a caregiver and now the CDC instructing hospitals to claim COVID as cause of death even when only "assumed" but not confirmed.
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Link to the "we are down 15k flu deaths per week" claim?
i think they are talking about both a link bp left in the coronavirus thread and the graphic here and mixing them up a bit. didn't open the link, so not positive.
Yeah, it doesn't make sense. That would mean more flu deaths in a month than in a typical flu season.
I agree. It doesn't make sense especially based on the estimate of 24k-63k total for the season per https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
When I posted the infographic, I took it to mean "ALL DEATHS" regardless of cause and only pivoted to flu as that's what catastrophe chose to focus on per the graphic.
A 15k per week decrease in ALL DEATHS makes a crap ton of sense though
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I feel like ppl should take the Sunday numbers from the hard hit European countries w a grain of salt. Like france had 3 consecutive days of 1k deaths and today they’re reporting 518.
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I feel like ppl should take the Sunday numbers from the hard hit European countries w a grain of salt. Like france had 3 consecutive days of 1k deaths and today they’re reporting 518.
Completely agree... Literally all of the reported numbers from every country around the globe (USA included) feel very much like looking to a KU football box score for "game attendance".
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Link to the "we are down 15k flu deaths per week" claim?
crap, I dunno... I thought it was "all deaths".
castastrophe claimed its just flu deaths per the links in the infographic above.
Either way, this pandemic has saved a crap ton of lives, amirite?
Well I never claimed that. I just said the sources cited suggested it. I did try to click through and the CDC does provide a spreadsheet of historical flu related information, including a column titled "all deaths." However, it's not at all clear what exactly that number represents. When you search for death statistics on the CDC website, the latest report is from 2018, so it seems like it takes some time to pull together reliable information.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm
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I feel like ppl should take the Sunday numbers from the hard hit European countries w a grain of salt. Like france had 3 consecutive days of 1k deaths and today they’re reporting 518.
Completely agree... Literally all of the reported numbers from every country around the globe (USA included) feel very much like looking to a KU football box score for "game attendance".
We’re saying the exact opposite things. They’re under reporting.
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I feel like ppl should take the Sunday numbers from the hard hit European countries w a grain of salt. Like france had 3 consecutive days of 1k deaths and today they’re reporting 518.
Completely agree... Literally all of the reported numbers from every country around the globe (USA included) feel very much like looking to a KU football box score for "game attendance".
We’re saying the exact opposite things. They’re under reporting.
Thanks for completely missing the point... both are "mis-reporting", fairly dramatically.
:buh-bye:
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how "all deaths" are impacted by this is going to be really interesting
murder: down probably?
suicide: sharply up
heart disease: die of covid instead
car crash: way down
forklift accident: up
PTO shaft: flat
choking on food: maybe up
drugs: down? supply chains disrupted
booze: up, mission essential :drink:
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9618 on worldometer
9643 on johns hopkins
i had 4/5 as the middle option because i thought it was the most likely, so this is good news compared to my expectation.
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how "all deaths" are impacted by this is going to be really interesting
murder: down probably?
suicide: sharply up
heart disease: die of covid instead
car crash: way down
forklift accident: up
PTO shaft: flat
choking on food: maybe up
drugs: down? supply chains disrupted
booze: up, mission essential :drink:
im v interested in this as well.
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if you are choking on a riblet in an applebees, there is at least a chance that there is a doctor in the house
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Don't think this is worth its own thread, so I'll post here. Kinda morbid, but also pragmatic thought.
People are getting too good at warding off death. So good that we are overpopulating earth and draining her resources. Is 'rona mother nature's latest and best attempt to cull our herd and save herself?
Put another way, it's like how they keep preventing forest fires near rich residential areas that are prone to fires. Fires are supposed to happen, but we keep stopping the fires from happening, so all the firemaking stuff keeps building up and then when there is a real fire it is like a really, really bad fire that does tons of damage. Is 'rona just killing off tons of people that shouldn't be alive anyway or is the natural path that people achieve basic immortality and in turn must find some sort of homeostasis where our numbers remain similar and we don't kill the earth?
Im drunk.
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Happening_(2008_film)
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Don't think this is worth its own thread, so I'll post here. Kinda morbid, but also pragmatic thought.
People are getting too good at warding off death. So good that we are overpopulating earth and draining her resources. Is 'rona mother nature's latest and best attempt to cull our herd and save herself?
Put another way, it's like how they keep preventing forest fires near rich residential areas that are prone to fires. Fires are supposed to happen, but we keep stopping the fires from happening, so all the firemaking stuff keeps building up and then when there is a real fire it is like a really, really bad fire that does tons of damage. Is 'rona just killing off tons of people that shouldn't be alive anyway or is the natural path that people achieve basic immortality and in turn must find some sort of homeostasis where our numbers remain similar and we don't kill the earth?
Im drunk.
It isn't killing nearly enough people to make any sort of meaningful difference.
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Don't think this is worth its own thread, so I'll post here. Kinda morbid, but also pragmatic thought.
People are getting too good at warding off death. So good that we are overpopulating earth and draining her resources. Is 'rona mother nature's latest and best attempt to cull our herd and save herself?
Put another way, it's like how they keep preventing forest fires near rich residential areas that are prone to fires. Fires are supposed to happen, but we keep stopping the fires from happening, so all the firemaking stuff keeps building up and then when there is a real fire it is like a really, really bad fire that does tons of damage. Is 'rona just killing off tons of people that shouldn't be alive anyway or is the natural path that people achieve basic immortality and in turn must find some sort of homeostasis where our numbers remain similar and we don't kill the earth?
Im drunk.
nicname is a Thanos sock
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Perfectly pak'd, as all things should be
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you ever watch the planet earth where the fungus invades whatever bug is overwhelming the ecosystem?
pretty much that
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https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1247691218240315393?s=20
I may have mentioned that the death toll numbers in the USA are skewed, at best.
:dubious:
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https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1247691218240315393?s=20
I may have mentioned that the death toll numbers in the USA are skewed, at best.
:dubious:
I haven't watched that clip yet but from what I've gleaned today it's pure dumbass fuel. They live on it
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https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1247691218240315393?s=20
I may have mentioned that the death toll numbers in the USA are skewed, at best.
:dubious:
I haven't watched that clip yet but from what I've gleaned today it's pure dumbass fuel. They live on it
Yes, that's exactly what it is, aimed at MAGAqs who hate reading.
These people are too stupid to know what an autopsy is and how difficult they are to perform on bodies infected by a virus. They also lack the perspective to understand how difficult it is to do autopsies when people in New York are dying, of COVID or COVID related illness, every 3 minutes. They are also too stupid to know that one of the ways that coronavirus kills people is through organ failure, so if someone with liver disease dies after getting infected with coronavirus, it is in fact appropriate to determine that coronavirus killed that person.
Dr. Brix couldn't say any of that crap, so I did it for her.
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got to 1970 on the death count today. probably included a lot of people that were undercounted over the weekend, but it'll be interesting to see what tomorrow looks like.
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https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1247872519597629440
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
...
You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
I agree, we’re headed for deaths around 30-40k, although the “true” number of deaths caused by covid, as opposed to dying with covid but primarily from other causes, will continue to be debated for some time
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I love that goal post move with an audible for the out.
I'm sure the grifters in 1918 and during the Black Death contemplated the same thing as people died with "well they were going to die anyways, sure they died from this but honestly death was around the door for this person as well, so we can't assign total blame to it, 2 million dead? More like 1 million since those other 1 million were going to die anyways, I'm just sure of it"
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https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1247872519597629440
This is a very dumb tweet.
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https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1247691218240315393?s=20
I may have mentioned that the death toll numbers in the USA are skewed, at best.
:dubious:
I haven't watched that clip yet but from what I've gleaned today it's pure dumbass fuel. They live on it
Yes, that's exactly what it is, aimed at MAGAqs who hate reading.
These people are too stupid to know what an autopsy is and how difficult they are to perform on bodies infected by a virus. They also lack the perspective to understand how difficult it is to do autopsies when people in New York are dying, of COVID or COVID related illness, every 3 minutes. They are also too stupid to know that one of the ways that coronavirus kills people is through organ failure, so if someone with liver disease dies after getting infected with coronavirus, it is in fact appropriate to determine that coronavirus killed that person.
Dr. Brix couldn't say any of that crap, so I did it for her.
Translation: Dr. Brix didn't lie, so I'll do it for her.
You really should be a politician seeing as how you just pull random crap outta your ass and post it as fact.
This is the dumbest argument imaginable seeing as how less than 5% of ALL deaths result in autopsy.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5724047/
Its unfortunate that humans pass on, however at least there are zero deaths from the flu or pneumonia over the last 3-5 weeks, huh?
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Glad to see I’m the subject of another thread. :Woot: I guessed the over / under would be around 10k. I now think it’s going to be closer to 30-40k. So I was wrong-ish? But two caveats. First, we don’t really know the death toll with any accuracy. Some of these covid deaths are being “presumed” without even a positive test. And the US is counting deaths much more liberally the many countries, including any death with a positive test even if it may not have been the primary cause.
Second caveat: my initial prediction will still be far, far closer than what many doomsday models predicted. So were the models way off because of bad data (almost certainly) or did shutting down our economy work (probably to some extent), or both? Serious question. I doubt we’ll actually know for quite some time.
At the end of the day, I still believe the hysteria over this virus has been unjustified. Twitter journalism has fanned the flames. And the economic consequences will outweigh the virus itself.
All of this is reasonable. Ok, back to your twitter and tinfoil.
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Glad to see I’m the subject of another thread. :Woot: I guessed the over / under would be around 10k. I now think it’s going to be closer to 30-40k. So I was wrong-ish? But two caveats. First, we don’t really know the death toll with any accuracy. Some of these covid deaths are being “presumed” without even a positive test. And the US is counting deaths much more liberally the many countries, including any death with a positive test even if it may not have been the primary cause.
Second caveat: my initial prediction will still be far, far closer than what many doomsday models predicted. So were the models way off because of bad data (almost certainly) or did shutting down our economy work (probably to some extent), or both? Serious question. I doubt we’ll actually know for quite some time.
At the end of the day, I still believe the hysteria over this virus has been unjustified. Twitter journalism has fanned the flames. And the economic consequences will outweigh the virus itself.
All of this is reasonable. Ok, back to your twitter and tinfoil.
Yes, that is exactly what being off by 300% is. Please give me more predictions so I can instantly assume the opposite is true.
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This thing is pud. A once-a-century virus will be about 2-3x as deadly as a single flu season in the face of a little social distancing.
Chalk (another) one up for the US of A.
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Should we take undercounting into consideration?
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1247573157504057345
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Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! :runaway: I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.
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This thing is pud. A once-a-century virus will be about 2-3x as deadly as a single flu season in the face of a little social distancing.
Chalk (another) one up for the US of A.
Seriously, I have to concede that the social distancing likely helped. By how much will be really hard to say and the focus of much debate for years to come. I don’t think I’ll ever be convinced that this one-size-fits-all approach so many leaders took was the best course of action.
Just taking Kansas for example, we shut down schools and a crap ton of small business, but left Walmart and grocery stores open. Now obviously people gotta eat so of course those needed to stay open, but if everyone is going to visit those places to buy their food, why the eff did we shut down ma and pa’s stationary store and thousands of other small businesses? How did that really limit the spread?
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if everyone is going to visit those places to buy their food, why the eff did we shut down ma and pa’s stationary store and thousands of other small businesses? How did that really limit the spread?
Because Ma and Pa are interacting with ~25 fewer people per day (or however many people their stationary store attracts on a given day) who they otherwise would have interacted with.
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if everyone is going to visit those places to buy their food, why the eff did we shut down ma and pa’s stationary store and thousands of other small businesses? How did that really limit the spread?
Because Ma and Pa are interacting with ~25 fewer people per day (or however many people their stationary store attracts on a given day) who they otherwise would have interacted with.
Exactly... let ma & pa interact with those folks at Walmart of Dillon's (Sponsor of Sunflower Showdown) that way the stationary stays 'rona free while ma and pa go broke.
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Thankfully, not everyone needs to understand how distancing works in order for it to work.
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if everyone is going to visit those places to buy their food, why the eff did we shut down ma and pa’s stationary store and thousands of other small businesses? How did that really limit the spread?
Because Ma and Pa are interacting with ~25 fewer people per day (or however many people their stationary store attracts on a given day) who they otherwise would have interacted with.
Exactly... let ma & pa interact with those folks at Walmart of Dillon's (Sponsor of Sunflower Showdown) that way the stationary stays 'rona free while ma and pa go broke.
How are people struggling with this? Let's say in a given week, M&P open their business for 5 days and interact with 25 people per day. They also visit the grocery store on Saturday morning where they interact with 50 people.
Pre Shutdown: M&P are interacting with 175 people.
Shutdown: M&P are interacting with 50 people.
This is only taking into account their own business, and not all the other errands they run (church, restaurants, etc.). The shutdown severely limits the spread, notwithstanding their weekly trip to the grocery store.
This isn't a complicated thing. Ma and Pa have certainly sacrificed, but their sacrifice isn't in vain. Our collective sacrifice has kept us from this thing turning really ugly. It's a remarkable achievement that we should all be proud of.
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I think what your math is ignoring is that everybody eats. Virtually everyone goes to the grocery store. Or at least one person is every family. So at the end of the day, you haven’t really reduced the exposure. By closing down a bunch of places when everybody is still exposing themselves at concentrated venues (selling food no less!).
A counter argument is that “well, ok, but by limiting the number of venues we can increase the cleaning efforts at those venues.” The problem with that argument is, have you been to a Walmart lately?
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By the way, this thread is already better than that 144page twitfoil (I’m gonna use this word I just made up at every opportunity because it’s devastatingly accurate and funny) crap-storm. Thanks DLew!
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I think what your math is ignoring is that everybody eats. Virtually everyone goes to the grocery store. Or at least one person is every family. So at the end of the day, you haven’t really reduced the exposure. By closing down a bunch of places when everybody is still exposing themselves at concentrated venues (selling food no less!).
A counter argument is that “well, ok, but by limiting the number of venues we can increase the cleaning efforts at those venues.” The problem with that argument is, have you been to a Walmart lately?
One person going to the grocery is absolutely less exposure than everyone going everywhere.
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Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! :runaway: I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.
Congrats on being absolutely wrong by several magnitude. On the bright side Trump was even more wrong when he shut down America so you are smarter than the President. So, that is a pretty nice feather
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I think what your math is ignoring is that everybody eats. Virtually everyone goes to the grocery store. Or at least one person is every family. So at the end of the day, you haven’t really reduced the exposure. By closing down a bunch of places when everybody is still exposing themselves at concentrated venues (selling food no less!).
A counter argument is that “well, ok, but by limiting the number of venues we can increase the cleaning efforts at those venues.” The problem with that argument is, have you been to a Walmart lately?
I know a very very large section of JOCO SAHMs who have had food delivery for years and have not gotten close to a grocery store for weeks. Now, these people are also too boojie to ever even go to Walmart so there was never any danger of that.
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I think what your math is ignoring is that everybody eats. Virtually everyone goes to the grocery store. Or at least one person is every family. So at the end of the day, you haven’t really reduced the exposure. By closing down a bunch of places when everybody is still exposing themselves at concentrated venues (selling food no less!).
A counter argument is that “well, ok, but by limiting the number of venues we can increase the cleaning efforts at those venues.” The problem with that argument is, have you been to a Walmart lately?
One person going to the grocery is absolutely less exposure than everyone going everywhere.
It's really not that complicated. I guess you can say it doesn't completely remove risk therefore what's the point.
I bet someone could make a cool graphic showing webs of interaction and common spaces and surfaces that could get the point across.
Only for non-dumbasses
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Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! :runaway: I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.
Congrats on being absolutely wrong by several magnitude. On the bright side Trump was even more wrong when he shut down America so you are smarter than the President. So, that is a pretty nice feather
I think Trump is a politician. And I understand why politicians do things for political reasons even if I don’t agree on substance. (Actually, I do agree with some of what Trump has done, such as the travel ban and actions to rebuild our emergency stockpiles, and I also agree with some of what Cuomo has done in NY). But the flip side of your argument is that you must agree with Trump! How’s that feel? Along the same lines, Trump is going to go full Trump in a few weeks (moreso than he already is) when he uses the doomsday models to brag about how he saved millions of lives by taking great, decisive leadership. Prepare yourself.
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Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! :runaway: I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.
Congrats on being absolutely wrong by several magnitude. On the bright side Trump was even more wrong when he shut down America so you are smarter than the President. So, that is a pretty nice feather
I think Trump is a politician. And I understand why politicians do things for political reasons even if I don’t agree on substance. (Actually, I do agree with some of what Trump has done, such as the travel ban and actions to rebuild our emergency stockpiles, and I also agree with some of what Cuomo has done in NY). But the flip side of your argument is that you must agree with Trump! How’s that feel? Along the same lines, Trump is going to go full Trump in a few weeks (moreso than he already is) when he uses the doomsday models to brag about how he saved millions of lives by taking great, decisive leadership. Prepare yourself.
I agree with Trump on lots of stuff. Like you do and how shutting down the country was necessary.
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Good one Dugout! I’d be interested to know what you and other twitfoilers predicted. I’d go back through that massive thread to check, but why bother? My guess is most of you never even tried. But look - KSU is gonna be off by 30,000!! :runaway: I think my initial prediction will be quite a bit closer to the final number than than the 2.2 million so many of our leaders based their shutdowns upon.
You are saying your prediction is going to be way closer to reality than the model that assumed government took no action to mitigate the spread of the virus. And then you’re using that as a basis to say the threat was blown out of proportion?
Mods, xpost MAGA thread.
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So is 30-40k at the end of the year the new goalpost? We need a new betting thread.
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We definitely need ksuw to make some bets on these predictions.
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we should pretty comfortably surpass 40,000 deaths by the end of the month
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I have to concede that the social distancing likely helped. By how much will be really hard to say
lol.
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https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1247691218240315393?s=20
I may have mentioned that the death toll numbers in the USA are skewed, at best.
:dubious:
I haven't watched that clip yet but from what I've gleaned today it's pure dumbass fuel. They live on it
Yes, that's exactly what it is, aimed at MAGAqs who hate reading.
These people are too stupid to know what an autopsy is and how difficult they are to perform on bodies infected by a virus. They also lack the perspective to understand how difficult it is to do autopsies when people in New York are dying, of COVID or COVID related illness, every 3 minutes. They are also too stupid to know that one of the ways that coronavirus kills people is through organ failure, so if someone with liver disease dies after getting infected with coronavirus, it is in fact appropriate to determine that coronavirus killed that person.
Dr. Brix couldn't say any of that crap, so I did it for her.
Translation: Dr. Brix didn't lie, so I'll do it for her.
You really should be a politician seeing as how you just pull random crap outta your ass and post it as fact.
This is the dumbest argument imaginable seeing as how less than 5% of ALL deaths result in autopsy.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5724047/
Its unfortunate that humans pass on, however at least there are zero deaths from the flu or pneumonia over the last 3-5 weeks, huh?
:confused:
That's the point, dummy
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Should we take undercounting into consideration?
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1247573157504057345
Bookie? HELLO! Nothing to add?
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KSUW - What is the correct number of deaths to know whether or not we should have socially distanced?
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at least there are zero deaths from the flu or pneumonia over the last 3-5 weeks, huh?
covid truthers lol
https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1248044109249384448
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On the one hand all scientists and data say this, but on the other hand I’m an insane person. Curious, all these sheeple afraid of my unique thoughts. Very curious.
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https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1247691218240315393?s=20
I may have mentioned that the death toll numbers in the USA are skewed, at best.
:dubious:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/08/tucker-carlsons-brit-humes-faulty-theories-about-coronavirus-deaths-being-exaggerated/
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200409/74fb58c2b3f9705b715e5de4646c095b.jpg)
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(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200409/74fb58c2b3f9705b715e5de4646c095b.jpg)
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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
https://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=42000.150
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Should we take undercounting into consideration?
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1247573157504057345
Bookie? HELLO! Nothing to add?
God rest their souls... truly heartbreaking.
Although I'm sure "gothamist.com" is a fine independent news source, I wonder why the MSM and government leaders that need these additional numbers to help with the narrative haven't been more vocal about this. It also doesn't tell the whole story.... They're working to add them to the numbers.
Death count could rise dramatically, as NYC begins listing probable coronavirus deaths
On Tuesday, a report from Gothamist and WNYC determined that the city’s official coronavirus death count was not accounting for the upsurge in home deaths: The medical examiner’s office told the outlets that “another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic.” Now, the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner and the NYC Health Department will coordinate to “include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab confirmed that occur at home,” according to Health Department spokeswoman Stephanie Buhle. Though Buhle didn’t say when the city would begin reporting the home-death estimates, they are likely to add thousands of deaths to the toll of over 4,000.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html
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On the one hand all scientists and data say this, but on the other hand I’m an insane person. Curious, all these sheeple afraid of my unique thoughts. Very curious.
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You make good point Mr. Moderator... Let's all hope the "scientists and data" are accurate and we can ultimately reach the insanely high death toll projections that the models predicted a month ago.
It would be totally insane to hope that not nearly as many people perish from this awful virus than originally projected.
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On the one hand all scientists and data say this, but on the other hand I’m an insane person. Curious, all these sheeple afraid of my unique thoughts. Very curious.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
lol
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On the one hand all scientists and data say this, but on the other hand I’m an insane person. Curious, all these sheeple afraid of my unique thoughts. Very curious.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You make good point Mr. Moderator... Let's all hope the "scientists and data" are accurate and we can ultimately reach the insanely high death toll projections that the models predicted a month ago.
It would be totally insane to hope that not nearly as many people perish from this awful virus than originally projected.
Those goalposts moved again. Everyone hopes that the numbers are lower. Some people are acting like the social distancing recommendations from scientists aren't the reason the numbers are going to be lower.
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On the one hand all scientists and data say this, but on the other hand I’m an insane person. Curious, all these sheeple afraid of my unique thoughts. Very curious.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You make good point Mr. Moderator... Let's all hope the "scientists and data" are accurate and we can ultimately reach the insanely high death toll projections that the models predicted a month ago.
It would be totally insane to hope that not nearly as many people perish from this awful virus than originally projected.
Those goalposts moved again. Everyone hopes that the numbers are lower. Some people are acting like the social distancing recommendations from scientists aren't the reason the numbers are going to be lower.
Yeah, initial models only had %50 compliance for social distancing
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now over 500k confirmed cases in the united states. also got to over 2k/day deaths today, we'll go over 20k total deaths tomorrow.
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Peak coming this week? I think the modeling shows it Apr 20 and the numbers assume social distancing through May for ~30k deaths by August.
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Peak coming this week? I think the modeling shows it Apr 20 and the numbers assume social distancing through May for ~30k deaths by August.
i expect we'll hit 30k dead next week.
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Peak coming this week? I think the modeling shows it Apr 20 and the numbers assume social distancing through May for ~30k deaths by August.
I would say it's more like ~60k deaths by August.
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Pretty amazing to see kdub and the other trumpers be 100% still in this dude's corner when a) were told them this was under control b) then told everybody to shut down the world which they hate and c) see more Americans die from this than any other country
He was right. Shot people on 5th avenue and his followers were still with him. Dedication!
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Dictatorships don't exist because 100% of the people are overpowered by the dictator. There's always a good percentage of the population who will choose the dictator over pretty much everything else. Like a comforting father figure or something. This is dangereous crap we're rough ridin' with.
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Peak coming this week? I think the modeling shows it Apr 20 and the numbers assume social distancing through May for ~30k deaths by August.
i expect we'll hit 30k dead next week.
Pretty easily I would think too. The thing that is sticking with me is still watching Spain and Italy is they still "hang out" at a significant level for fatalities for weeks, sure it has come down from their peaks, thankfully, but it's still at a pretty significant level. Maybe I missed why they revised our number down to 60-100k, but that really to me feels like a "first wave" number. I can't imagine over the course of this (this year at least) the total being that number, unless we're truly committed to doing what we're doing right now for months. I think for the course of the year we'll end up in the 200k-250k range, which would be an accomplishment, a grim one, compared to just letting it ride.
I think if we keep up distancing and doing a lot of what we've being doing now but somehow get people "back to work" it's going to keep cases coming in, but keep it from being devating numbers. I'm sure there is a balance to it all, but getting people back out and about, even with distancing, wearing masks, and whatnot, is going to cause cases to occur. We're all human after all. I do wonder though what that "looks like" come June, July, August, etc.
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i basically agree. i don't know if r for the country is above 1 or below, but if it is below 1, i don't think it's much below it, so you're likely looking at a long drawn out plateau (or gentle slope up/down).
but a couple of caveats - 1) seasonality could make a big difference, and 2) i think mortality will decline - probably already has. plasma treatment seems to be efficacious, other drugs may show efficacy and be available pretty quickly and just learning how to treat symptoms seems to make a difference - for example, it seems like intubating patients earlier and putting them on their stomach instead of their back improves survival.
and of course the big question is how well we continue to tolerate isolation measures.
so, i think there's a lot of variation possible in where we may end up for the year fatality-wise
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Now that we know we are gonna fall woefully short of Gates' hope of 1 million to 2.2 million deaths, just how many deaths are we hoping for so that we can get Trump out of the White House?
What's it gonna take? Will 100k even do it or are we gonna need to get to at least 200k like cfbandyman is hoping for?
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If you had one sentence to describe to a time traveler from 5 years ago what MAGA is “they think Donald Trump is good and Bill Gates is bad” would be a good option.
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Billy's world de-population plan is just to rid the world of the MAGAs
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Now that we know we are gonna fall woefully short of Gates' hope of 1 million to 2.2 million deaths, just how many deaths are we hoping for so that we can get Drumpf out of the White House?
What's it gonna take? Will 100k even do it or are we gonna need to get to at least 200k like cfbandyman is hoping for?
First off how the hell you get me "hoping" for 200k out of what I wrote, and second off, that 1 to 2 mill is if we literally did nothing you ignorant worthless sniviling paramecium.
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Now that we know we are gonna fall woefully short of Gates' hope of 1 million to 2.2 million deaths, just how many deaths are we hoping for so that we can get Drumpf out of the White House?
What's it gonna take? Will 100k even do it or are we gonna need to get to at least 200k like cfbandyman is hoping for?
First off how the hell you get me "hoping" for 200k out of what I wrote, and second off, that 1 to 2 mill is if we literally did nothing you ignorant worthless sniviling paramecium.
First off, you mis-spelled "sniveling"... secondly, I've never seen anybody use three adjectives to describe algae. Didn't mean to strike a nerve so deeply. Ts & Ps, friend.
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At least we have moved off the swine flu talking point, I see that as a positive development.
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That's really what its all about, ww.... coming together as one. :cheers:
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Now that we know we are gonna fall woefully short of Gates' hope of 1 million to 2.2 million deaths, just how many deaths are we hoping for so that we can get Trump out of the White House?
What's it gonna take? Will 100k even do it or are we gonna need to get to at least 200k like cfbandyman is hoping for?
Not very, "I'm not taking sides," of you.
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took over the pole position for most deaths in the world. 20,577.
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took over the pole position for most deaths in the world. 20,577.
Now that we know we are gonna fall woefully short of Gates' hope of 1 million to 2.2 million deaths, just how many deaths are we hoping for so that we can get Drumpf out of the White House?
What's it gonna take? Will 100k even do it or are we gonna need to get to at least 200k like cfbandyman is hoping for?
First off how the hell you get me "hoping" for 200k out of what I wrote, and second off, that 1 to 2 mill is if we literally did nothing you ignorant worthless sniviling paramecium.
First off, you mis-spelled "sniveling"... secondly, I've never seen anybody use three adjectives to describe algae. Didn't mean to strike a nerve so deeply. Ts & Ps, friend.
Weird, cause I never seen anyone trying to defend this rate of destruction as positive as you have. t's & p's acting like this is all ok, keep calm and carry on as they say. Also, like how you focused on sniveling, as if you could spell paramecium without looking it up, or googling what type of life form that was. Also the hyphenated misspelling seems quite middle school of you. Maybe you can elaborate on your low grade understanding of this crisis.
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The smarter Trumpers have ditched the swine flu comparo because it actually makes Barry look like a huge stud and trump look like a moron
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Now that we know we are gonna fall woefully short of Gates' hope of 1 million to 2.2 million deaths, just how many deaths are we hoping for so that we can get Trump out of the White House?
What's it gonna take? Will 100k even do it or are we gonna need to get to at least 200k like cfbandyman is hoping for?
Not very, "I'm not taking sides," of you.
I’ve always been on the “as few as rough ridin' possible” side and quietly hoping for under 30k although that will likely turn out to be unrealistic even though any death is too many.
Does that help?
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Now that we know we are gonna fall woefully short of Gates' hope of 1 million to 2.2 million deaths, just how many deaths are we hoping for so that we can get Trump out of the White House?
What's it gonna take? Will 100k even do it or are we gonna need to get to at least 200k like cfbandyman is hoping for?
Not very, "I'm not taking sides," of you.
I’ve always been on the “as few as rough ridin' possible” side and quietly hoping for under 30k although that will likely turn out to be unrealistic even though any death is too many.
Does that help?
So just like everyone else?
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It seems like trumpers are mad that most people wanted to shut things down and close churches for a bit to limit the number of people that get this, but they simultaneously think that people who aren’t trumpers want as many people to get this as possible in order to make trump look bad or something. Conundrum city for sure. Pick a side weirdos.
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It seems like trumpers are mad that most people wanted to shut things down and close churches for a bit to limit the number of people that get this, but they simultaneously think that people who aren’t trumpers want as many people to get this as possible in order to make trump look bad or something. Conundrum city for sure. Pick a side weirdos.
Going for the trifecta...kill the economy, Christianity and as many people as possible in one fell swoop.
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
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You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
https://twitter.com/JonahDispatch/status/1250391982150684674
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
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You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
https://twitter.com/JonahDispatch/status/1250391982150684674
i guess the next move for ksuw is to claim the deaths are fake news?
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Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?
I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
...
You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?
https://twitter.com/JonahDispatch/status/1250391982150684674
i guess the next move for ksuw is to claim the deaths are fake news?
you haven't heard about the overcounting of deaths because a lot of folks who died with covid also had some other ailment?
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Yeah, how are we supposed to know the guy with diabetes wouldn't have died on a ventilator without the COVID-19?
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I think the incel playbook calls for claiming you are cheering for the virus with a check down to it's not really covid if you had asthma
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I think the incel playbook calls for claiming you are cheering for the virus with a check down to it's not really covid if you had asthma
#trumpvirus (Useful Idiot Mandate 167.1.4.6-7)
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X: I'm so sorry to hear about your father's passing. How did he die?
Y: Cancer. eff cancer, amirite?
X: Cancer is the worst. I hope he was made as comfortable as possible in the end.
Y: Fortunately, he went quickly. He was stopped at a red light when he accidentally meanmugged the guy next to him. Guy shot him in the chest and then dad sped off but crashed into a telephone pole and his car esploded.
X: Wow. eff cancer.
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X: I'm so sorry to hear about your father's passing. How did he die?
Y: Cancer. eff cancer, amirite?
X: Cancer is the worst. I hope he was made as comfortable as possible in the end.
Y: Fortunately, he went quickly. He was stopped at a red light when he accidentally meanmugged the guy next to him. Guy shot him in the chest and then dad sped off but crashed into a telephone pole and his car esploded.
X: Wow. eff cancer.
We the people find the defendant not guilty, your honor.
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It's definitely not the flu for most people. But for a significant portion of the population (those 34 and younger), the chances of it killing you are about on par (or less than) the flu, at least per the CDC website.
(https://i.imgur.com/nKOxkygh.jpg)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm)
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wow that was BMW bad KSW
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It's definitely not the flu for most people. But for a significant portion of the population (those 34 and younger), the chances of it killing you are about on par (or less than) the flu, at least per the CDC website.
(https://i.imgur.com/nKOxkygh.jpg)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm)
We don't shelter in place for the flu, so comparing total deaths doesn't make sense. I would be more interested in seeing the death rate of the infected.
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We don't shelter in place for the flu, so comparing total deaths doesn't make sense. I would be more interested in seeing the death rate of the infected.
Well for the last x number of weeks we've been effectively sheltering in place for Corona and the flu. The linked table above shows the comparative flu/covid deaths over the same timespan.
I don't really know of the comparative infection rates between the two viruses, but the point is, for about 40 percent of the population, way more (or the same number of) people their age have died of the flu than of coronavirus since the beginning of February. Everyone should be taking this seriously because it's no joke for anyone, but so far, relatively very few younger people have actually died from it.
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Checking back into another thread that bears my name. :blush:
Couple obervos... First, I think I heard NY recently increased it's death count by over 3,000 based on no confirmed testing but only presumptions? Kinda makes this whole exercise a bit dubious, no?
Second, please quote your predictions from a few weeks ago.
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It's definitely not the flu for most people. But for a significant portion of the population (those 34 and younger), the chances of it killing you are about on par (or less than) the flu, at least per the CDC website.
(https://i.imgur.com/nKOxkygh.jpg)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm)
We don't shelter in place for the flu, so comparing total deaths doesn't make sense. I would be more interested in seeing the death rate of the infected.
One has a widely available vaccine. The other doesn’t. So that is likely an important factor to consider here. Now that it’s widespread, it’s a lot easier to get COVID-19 than the flu at this point.
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Checking back into another thread that bears my name. :blush:
Couple obervos... First, I think I heard NY recently increased it's death count by over 3,000 based on no confirmed testing but only presumptions? Kinda makes this whole exercise a bit dubious, no?
Second, please quote your predictions from a few weeks ago.
But they’re not adding the suspicious sudden increased deaths vs before coronavirus reached pandemic status. So bones to pick on either side for sure.
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It's definitely not the flu for most people. But for a significant portion of the population (those 34 and younger), the chances of it killing you are about on par (or less than) the flu, at least per the CDC website.
(https://i.imgur.com/nKOxkygh.jpg)
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm)
We don't shelter in place for the flu, so comparing total deaths doesn't make sense. I would be more interested in seeing the death rate of the infected.
One has a widely available vaccine. The other doesn’t. So that is likely an important factor to consider here. Now that it’s widespread, it’s a lot easier to get COVID-19 than the flu at this point.
This is true too (though the efficacy of the flu vaccine is variable).
In any event, the best path (imo) is to figure out the best treatment, make it standard, and make the virus a lot less scary. If treatments can turn this thing into the common cold, then what are we sheltering in place for? I recognize we're not there yet, but if we want to reopen before a vaccine comes to market, I think that's the path.
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I’m not an expert, but my expectation from the beginning is that we’re going to just be comfortable accepting the risk of infection before a vaccine is available. The only unacceptable result is overloading our hospitals and not allowing people to get potentially life saving care that would otherwise be available.
That means flattening the curve, which can be done in many ways, but when we get completely caught off guard like we did in February/March, the only way to do it is drastic measures like shelter in place. Once we ensure our hospitals have breathing room we can take less drastic measures like limiting large gatherings or other activities known to facilitate wide scale spread of viruses. Once a vaccine is available, we can lean much heavier on that to do the bulk of the work in slowing the spread.
Treatments can also help in this regard, but I think at best they’ll be in conjunction with other limiting measures instead of as an alternative.
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I’m not an expert, but my expectation from the beginning is that we’re going to just be comfortable accepting the risk of infection before a vaccine is available. The only unacceptable result is overloading our hospitals and not allowing people to get potentially life saving care that would otherwise be available.
That means flattening the curve, which can be done in many ways, but when we get completely caught off guard like we did in February/March, the only way to do it is drastic measures like shelter in place. Once we ensure our hospitals have breathing room we can take less drastic measures like limiting large gatherings or other activities known to facilitate wide scale spread of viruses. Once a vaccine is available, we can lean much heavier on that to do the bulk of the work in slowing the spread.
Treatments can also help in this regard, but I think at best they’ll be in conjunction with other limiting measures instead of as an alternative.
honestly Newsom's press conference yesterday laid this all out pretty well. there's a ton of factors at play and they all impact what, when, where, and how things are opened back up.
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Checking back into another thread that bears my name. :blush:
Couple obervos... First, I think I heard NY recently increased it's death count by over 3,000 based on no confirmed testing but only presumptions? Kinda makes this whole exercise a bit dubious, no?
Second, please quote your predictions from a few weeks ago.
I've just kind of gone with whatever the WHO/CDC has said.
I think the new york numbers is counting people dying at home with covid symptoms.
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So amazing seeing MAGAs scramble to downplay the COVID-19 death toll numbers as being due to anything else in a pathetic attempt to insist that they aren't owned for voting for one of history's biggest dipshits.
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Trump's swift and decisive actions saved millions of lives SkinnyDummy, what more do you want?
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great point, hadn't considered it that way until now.
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So amazing seeing MAGAs scramble to downplay the COVID-19 death toll numbers as being due to anything else in a pathetic attempt to insist that they aren't owned for voting for one of history's biggest dipshits.
Or that he has been, or is handling this well, when the dude is legit going apeshit on this everyday and clearly downplayed this at the beginning. He's also proven himself to be the worst boss in the world. Can you ever imagine working for a boss that handles himself like this? Just the worst. Let alone all the other crap he does.
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Checking back into another thread that bears my name. :blush:
Couple obervos... First, I think I heard NY recently increased it's death count by over 3,000 based on no confirmed testing but only presumptions? Kinda makes this whole exercise a bit dubious, no?
Second, please quote your predictions from a few weeks ago.
But they’re not adding the suspicious sudden increased deaths vs before coronavirus reached pandemic status. So bones to pick on either side for sure.
Right, like I can't remember the exact numbers but Cuomo was saying that like 10-20 NYC residents die in their houses a day normally, and at one point it was up to like 100/day. You can't count em all but you can't say they all don't count.
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I’m not an expert, but my expectation from the beginning is that we’re going to just be comfortable accepting the risk of infection before a vaccine is available. The only unacceptable result is overloading our hospitals and not allowing people to get potentially life saving care that would otherwise be available.
i don't think that's accurate. people may have been thinking that at one time (certainly messaging was to that effect), but i don't think it is still the plan if it ever was. a slow burn to herd immunity would imply millions of dead americans (low 7 figures instead of low 8 figures with an out of control outbreak), and i don't think society considers that an acceptable cost.
i think the strategy now is to adopt measures that will keep transmission at or below 1.0 until highly effective treatments or a vaccine alters either the lethality or the transmission of the virus.
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Checking back into another thread that bears my name. :blush:
Couple obervos... First, I think I heard NY recently increased it's death count by over 3,000 based on no confirmed testing but only presumptions? Kinda makes this whole exercise a bit dubious, no?
Second, please quote your predictions from a few weeks ago.
1. new york is now reporting two categories of deaths, confirmed cases that have a positive test result and presumed cases that do not. the counts of confirmed cases do not include the second category to date and afaik, they probably won't.
2. https://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=42012.0
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I’m not an expert, but my expectation from the beginning is that we’re going to just be comfortable accepting the risk of infection before a vaccine is available. The only unacceptable result is overloading our hospitals and not allowing people to get potentially life saving care that would otherwise be available.
i don't think that's accurate. people may have been thinking that at one time (certainly messaging was to that effect), but i don't think it is still the plan if it ever was. a slow burn to herd immunity would imply millions of dead americans (low 7 figures instead of low 8 figures with an out of control outbreak), and i don't think society considers that an acceptable cost.
i think the strategy now is to adopt measures that will keep transmission at or below 1.0 until highly effective treatments or a vaccine alters either the lethality or the transmission of the virus.
I think keeping the curve flattened and taking extra precautions for elderly would accomplish this. Assuming hospitals aren’t overloaded, there’s no reason to think we couldn’t achieve a death rate as low as the lowest reported so far. No widescale testing has left us blind to true death rates, but given the figures coming out of Germany & Iceland plus the surprisingly high asymptomatic cases, I think we can assume it’s under 1%.
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it's pretty unlikely that it is under 1, imo.
there are, afaik (and excluding countries with like 40 cases), three places where we have a pretty decent idea of the number of people infected. not perfect, but pretty good.
1. diamond princess. they tested everyone on board. death rate 1.7% there are still patients in critical condition, so it may go up. caveat - not a natural age distribution population.
2. south korea. they still have new cases, so they didn't get everyone, but pretty close. death rate 2.2% (still going up).
3. iceland. same as s korea. death rate 0.5%. however, the majority of their infections were identified in the last three weeks, their death rate will go up more than will the dp and sk rates, who have older cases.
germany is a bit different, although they've done a great job of testing, they still get thousands of new cases every day, so they haven't come all that close to identifying everyone. at any rate their CFR is currently 2.8%, hard to say what it will end up as or what their IFR is.
coming at it from a different angle, gates has said he thought the IFR is around 1.2%. no attribution, but presumably that's an estimate from the research group he funds. and an academic paper i saw somewhere gave an estimated IFR of 1.4% from chinese data.
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that's a good summary, thanks sys