covid 19 death toll poll

[Phil Titola]

Let's take KC metro as a case study.  Big groups were shut down around the 17th, many offices started sending people home the Friday before that.  The main metro counties announced their stay home orders on the 23rd.

Let's assume a lot of the population has been better at staying at home and limiting their exposure (I know that's not been 100% great), given 14 day incubation period shouldn't we be seeing an impact in the numbers starting now and into next week?  If not, there is going to be a lot of questions concerning the benefits of distancing.

edit, of course you're going to have more confirmed cases as testing gets better but still overall I'd think we'd see a dip in the numbers soon.

That's going to be a bit of a fallacy with this for a while. There won't really be a "dip" more of a sustain (constant days of 100 new cases in the metro are per day or w/e for example). What we really need to see if the growth in cases per day not increase, that change will be the real first sign and you are starting to see that a bit in the US's total numbers. But even when you look at Italy, France, Spain, they still are having "sustained" amounts of new cases, the general reversal isn't going to be felt for a while, let alone next week.

Do agree I am pretty happy with how the KC metro, and especially KS has been on this. Took a lot of bold strokes earlier than other areas and it hopefully will prove itself out.

I meant a dip in new daily cases.

That's more than fair, but I think that's still a bit off. Italy's first batch of #s came in today for and they continue a slow improvement. But that dip is very drawn out when you look at it

I think KC was more proactive than Italy which makes me hopeful we see new cases go down faster. 

[IPA4Me]

TBH I'm not even looking at cases. Death rate seems to be the tell.

[8manpick]

Even the death rates seem unreliable based on some of the info that came out yesterday on what Italy/France were and weren't including in COVID death numbers

[Institutional Control]

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[cfbandyman]

Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?

[MakeItRain]

What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?

[DaBigTrain]

Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?

Well to be fair, KSUW is a gigantic POS and a dumbass. So....

[DaBigTrain]

What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?

I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.

[Phil Titola]

What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?

I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.

look at these fancy pants getting multiple tests and most can't sniff a one.

[sys]

What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?

I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.

are we doing that - retesting people that tested positive after they recover?

[DaBigTrain]

What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?

I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.

look at these fancy pants getting multiple tests and most can't sniff a one.

If they test negative it’s not as deadly and we can open the country back up faster!

[DaBigTrain]

What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?

I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.

are we doing that - retesting people that tested positive after they recover?

It would irresponsible if we didn’t. The length of time they are contagious varies from person to person. I have no facts on the retesting but seems pretty basic logic to assume we have been.

[Phil Titola]

What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?

I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.

are we doing that - retesting people that tested positive after they recover?

It would irresponsible if we didn’t. The length of time they are contagious varies from person to person. I have no facts on the retesting but seems pretty basic logic to assume we have been.

Sadly basic logic has no place in our plan.

[Spracne]

I wouldn't place much faith in the "recovered" numbers.

[catastrophe]

I don't know if there is a set criteria on what counts as recovered, but I think it's definitely a good idea to be testing infected people for coronavirus or ideally for antibodies before declaring them recovered.  More of a useful metric than testing someone with mild symptoms IMO, cause regardless of whether you test positive they're going to tell you to go home, self quarantine, and come back if it gets worse.

[chum1]

Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?

I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
...
You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?

[DaBigTrain]

I think this is obviously but in a perfect world anyone who wants to get tested should. I’m seen reports and heard of people that want it but are turned away, even when they have symptoms. A gigantic issue with that is if they have only mild symptoms without a test, a few days after they feel better they will probably leave. If they are positive and think it’s just something else the likelihood of addition spreads increases dramatically.

That’s what pisses me off so much about this absolute cluster eff of handling by the Trump admin. People who can’t get a test are probably leaving quarantine early and inadvertently continuing the spread. So rough ridin' frustrating when we had so much lead time knowing about it.

[DaBigTrain]

Remember when Kazz Dub said he didn't think we'd have 10k deaths?

I’d set the over/under at maybe 10,000 US deaths by the end of 2020...Basically a mild flu season. In fact, some of these deaths will likely overlap potential flu deaths.
...
You want to talk about “exponential growth”? Look at the panic emanating from government agencies. We’ve now closed all schools in Kansas for the rest of the semester. On what rational basis?

Exactly 2 weeks ago and we are already over half way there on the first day of April!

[MakeItRain]

What constitutes as "recovered?" Hospitalizations that became discharged?

I think people who tested positive, self quarantined, then tested negative at least once qualify for that too.

are we doing that - retesting people that tested positive after they recover?

It would irresponsible if we didn’t. The length of time they are contagious varies from person to person. I have no facts on the retesting but seems pretty basic logic to assume we have been.

I've seen two different medical professionals on television today, state they have no idea how long someone is contagious. Would they just test over and over again until there's a negative, what's the protocol for this.

[MakeItRain]

I wouldn't place much faith in the "recovered" numbers.

Yeah, that would mean, if TBT is correct in what's classified as recovered, that 94% of people in this country who have contracted the rona have recovered. Not just 94% of the people who have it right now, but 94% of the people who have contracted it in the two months it's been here. That doesn't seem close to right, especially given 25% of those who contract it are asymptomatic.

[catastrophe]

The recovered numbers from Johns Hopkins, like the infected numbers, are going to be way less than the numbers in reality.

And again, not sure how available testing is, but I think antibody tests should indicate if you had COVID-19 and are no longer at risk of transmitting it.

[Institutional Control]

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[sys]

bump.  i'm pretty likely to get my prediction proven wrong in the next 15 days.

[wetwillie]

Do a new poll and ask if Covid 19 will be the leading cause of death in the US this year.

[sys]

    Heart disease: 647,457
    Cancer: 599,108
    Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
    Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
    Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
    Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
    Diabetes: 83,564
    Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
    Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
    Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

i don't think it will be.