The impending invasion of Venezuela thread

[Kat Kid]

luckily for us, when the coup is being promoted by the likes of Donald Trump, Mike Pence, and Marco Rubio there is a good chance it never really happens and everyone just moves on.

do you consider the congressional claim to be a coup, kat kid?

genuine question what does "congressional claim" mean?

[sys]

the elevation of guaido by the national assembly.

[Kat Kid]

the elevation of guaido by the national assembly.

I am by no means a Venezuelan constitutional expert, but I'm pretty sure that's not how it works.  could be wrong!

That said, I am much more interested in the US role here and anyone that brings in Elliot Abrams as point person on a country's human rights respecter can expect to get a violent coup.  Marco Rubio is openly fantasizing about just assassinating Maduro, so it is pretty clear about the US intent.

[Kat Kid]

worth recalling that in '02 we tried a coup in Venezuela and failed. useful context that Venezuelans will remember and most Americans never even knew to forget.

[sys]

I am by no means a Venezuelan constitutional expert, but I'm pretty sure that's not how it works.  could be wrong!

i am also not a venezuelan constitutional expert; however, from what i have seen, if you agree that maduro's actions have not been constitutional, then the elevation of the leader of the national assembly is the prescribed constitutional remedy.

[sys]

worth recalling that in '02 we tried a coup in Venezuela and failed. useful context that Venezuelans will remember and most Americans never even knew to forget.

you and dax share a world view that, imo, greatly exaggerates the ability of the united states to direct and influence the internal politics of foreign countries.

[Kat Kid]

worth recalling that in '02 we tried a coup in Venezuela and failed. useful context that Venezuelans will remember and most Americans never even knew to forget.

you and dax share a world view that, imo, greatly exaggerates the ability of the united states to direct and influence the internal politics of foreign countries.

Well the Bay of Pigs was technically Cuban ex-pats and the US did not ultimately provide air cover. 

In '02, Elliot Abrams (same guy!) was running point on organizing and advising the opposition, in recognizing/legitimizing the opposition, and the key players were even invited to the White House to strategize before hand.  So, I am not sure just how much material support was offered in either case but it is more than a little disingenuous to allege that the US was not a key element in backing the coup.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/21/usa.venezuela

[sys]

i don't know anything beyond what i just read on wikipedia, but what is outlined there is at odds with your description of "we tried a coup".

[Kat Kid]

i don't know anything beyond what i just read on wikipedia, but what is outlined there is at odds with your description of "we tried a coup".

Do you think the US "tried a coup" in Chile to overthrow Allende?

[sys]

Do you think the US "tried a coup" in Chile to overthrow Allende?

i have no special knowledge of that history, but my phrasing of the conventional history would be that the chilean military staged a coup of the elected government with us encouragement.

[Kat Kid]

Do you think the US "tried a coup" in Chile to overthrow Allende?

i have no special knowledge of that history, but my phrasing of the conventional history would be that the chilean military staged a coup of the elected government with us encouragement.

that is a fascinating definition. Mossadegh in Iran?  Qadaffi in Libya? what about US involvement in removing Sadaam from Iraq?
Would these qualify under your definition?

[sys]

do we have to do each one in turn?  let's just say that i don't believe the united states possesses some magical power to order the world to its will.

[Kat Kid]

do we have to do each one in turn?  let's just say that i don't believe the united states possesses some magical power to order the world to its will.

well defining our terms would go a long way toward enabling a discussion.

[sys]

what term do you find undefined?  for that matter, what is our discussion anymore?  we started with me asking if you thought the elevation of guaido was an attempt at a coup.

[DQ12]

worth recalling that in '02 we tried a coup in Venezuela and failed. useful context that Venezuelans will remember and most Americans never even knew to forget.

you and dax share a world view that, imo, greatly exaggerates the ability of the united states to direct and influence the internal politics of foreign countries.

horseshoe theory! cc @Kat Kid ; @bubbles ; @8manpick

[Kat Kid]

what term do you find undefined?  for that matter, what is our discussion anymore?  we started with me asking if you thought the elevation of guaido was an attempt at a coup.

I have no idea what you define as what it means for the US to be involved in a coup. I am genuinely puzzled by your evasiveness about this. What is the magic line that must be crossed?

As for the current state of things, let me be clear: I think that the United States is currently in the process of attempting a coup in Venezuela.  I don't have all of the same amount of information to back up just how explicitly the US is involved as in their failed '02 attempt or the other numerous other examples I provided (I define all of those as coup attempts by the US). Elliot Abrams being in charge and all of the other very clear signals would suggest that the United States is involved enough to satisfy me for now. I am open to being proved wrong later.

Now, is it your idea that unless there are armed US troops in Venezuela right now we are not "attempting a coup?"

[sys]

i would say that the united states is not attempting a coup in venezuela because, to me a coup strongly implies an illegal seizure of powe,r and afaik the national assembly's effort to remove maduro is in accordance with the venezuela constitution.

that notwithstanding, while it is possible that the united states might materially aid the effort to remove maduro in the future, i have no evidence that they have already done so, so even if it were a (thus far fruitless) coup, i have no reason to think that it was undertaken at the behest of the us.

[Kat Kid]

I am not a tanky and I'm not some huge fan of Maduro and a lot of this is opaque to me because I really have not followed it at the granular level.  But it really isn't clear to me that the opposition is on the level re: Constitutional backing.

The country’s authoritarian president was inaugurated for a second term amid a collapsing economy and a growing humanitarian crisis. As inflation has soared and food and medicine have become acutely scarce, Venezuelans have been fleeing their nation in droves. As of last November, more than three million people had left, according to the United Nations.

Ahead of Mr. Maduro’s inauguration, a group of countries that includes Canada, Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Argentina issued a statement calling Mr. Maduro’s second term “illegitimate” and his government “dictatorial and oppressive.”
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Mr. Guaidó, 35, has stopped short of calling himself the nation’s rightful leader. But the day after Mr. Maduro’s second swearing-in, Mr. Guaidó invoked an article of Venezuela’s Constitution that transfers power to the president of the National Assembly in the event that the presidency becomes vacant.

Guaidó is insisting on new elections right after he takes power, which would be welcome, but it is unclear to me that he has the power OR even a popular mandate to nullify the last ones (which it seems clear were not open/fair).

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/15/world/americas/guaido-maduro-venezuela.html


To use another example, people could make a case that Trump is unfit, but we have a clear process for removing him.  The 25th amendment would likely (probably rightly) be perceived as a coup attempt. 

[sys]

i mostly base my take on the eu and the majority of oas states recognizing guaido.  it's not something i have the desire to adjudicate myself.

[Kat Kid]

https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1105314978393923586


seems ominous.

[8manpick]

To use another example, people could make a case that Trump is unfit, but we have a clear process for removing him.  The 25th amendment would likely (probably rightly) be perceived as a coup attempt.

Perception does not necessitate reality. That would not be a coup attempt. Words have meanings.

[Kat Kid]

To use another example, people could make a case that Trump is unfit, but we have a clear process for removing him.  The 25th amendment would likely (probably rightly) be perceived as a coup attempt.

Perception does not necessitate reality. That would not be a coup attempt. Words have meanings.

It would depend upon the Supreme Court's interpretation of whether Trump was "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" if the justification provided is weak I don't think it survives a challenge when the president is denied the due process provided by impeachment.

[8manpick]

Sure, but the 25th amendment properly applied would, by definition, not be a coup.

[Kat Kid]

Sure, but the 25th amendment properly applied would, by definition, not be a coup.

right. which brings us back full circle to Venezuelan constitutional interpretation and politics.

[LickNeckey]

Dax



what is the policy position here?



are we getting dunked on?