1 Texas (2005 NC, 2 BCS bowls)
2 Tennessee (Phil Fulmer)
3 Georgia (1 BCS)
4 Florida State (2 BCS)
5 Ohio State (2 BCS)
6 Auburn (1 BCS, deserved 1 MNC)
7 Oklahoma (2 BCS title games)
8 Miami-FL (1 BCS)
9 UCLA (coach fired)
10 Colorado (coach fired)
11 South Carolina (coach resigned)
12 Virginia (Makes me hope our new coach is really good at developing lower ranked players, because UVA is very mediocre)
13 Southern Cal (3 BCS, 3 title games, 1 NC)
14 Kansas State (1 BCS)
15 LSU (1 BCS, 1 NC)
Summary: Out of 24 possible BCS spots from 2003-2005, 11 came from the 2002 top 10 recruiters. 16(!) came from the top 15. All MNC's came from the top 15, and all BCS title game participants came from the top 15.
Interesting. Here's where your logic fails.
A class will not have an impact on a team immediately, but rather in about three years, generally when most players are either true juniors or redshirt sophomores AND assuming those teams do not have impact players from the previous class. To use the argument that a recruiting class will have an immediate impact, and to use the success of the previous years is the fallacy in your argument and goes against the conventional thinking of the process. You cannot give a recruiting class for BCS bowl games where they would not have any impact.
Therefore, I will correct your recruiting to establish the true picture. We can safely assume that the 2002 class will have some bearing on the 2005. Keep in mind that players from 2001 will still have an impact:
1 Texas - BCS NC game (12-0)
2 Tennessee - 5-6 season
3 Georgia - 10-2 (BCS Bowl - lost to West Virginia)
4 Florida State 8-5 (BCS Bowl - but not best record in conference - Miami, VaTech better, Loses to Big 10 Champ Penn State)
5 Ohio State - 10-2 (BCS at large bid - beat a overachieving Notre Dame team)
6 Auburn - 9-3 (Bowl Game Lost to "Wisconsin.")
7 Oklahoma - 8-4 (Holiday Bowl - Lost to tcu??)
8 Miami-FL - 9-3 (Blown out by LSU)
9 UCLA - 10-2 (Blows out hapless Northwestern team)
10 Colorado - 7-6 (Loses to Clemson in bowl game)
11 South Carolina - 7-5 (Loses Bowl game to Missouri..)
12 Virginia - 7-5 (Bowl game win against Minnesota)
13 Southern Cal - BCS Title Game (Loses to Texas)
14 Kansas State 5-6
15 LSU - 11-2 (Destroys higher ranked recruiting class Miami Team)
Of the Top 5 teams, four go to BCS bowls. Of the four, go, and two of the four lose to teams who are lower ranked in recruiting. Two get there by winning their championships, not a true measure of whether the team deserves, but they still end up losing to inferior recruiting RANKED teams. Notice Penn State won, and were higher RANKED in the polls at the time.
Last half of the Top 5 go to bowl games (no BCS Bowls) BUT 2 of the remaining 5 win their bowl games, where OU beat Oregon (a higher RANKED team poll wise, not recruiting wise) the losers again, losing to lower recruiting ranked teams.
From 11-15, the 4 go to bowl games, Virginia beats a lower recruiting ranked team, LSU beats a HIGHER recruiting ranked team and SOCAL is the #1 team all season and plays the game of the 21st centuryaand barely loses. Steve Spurier gets smoked by Gary Pinkel.
The only thing you can say with any realism is that fatty's comment about "generally" is as close as it gets but even then you must put an asterisk beside it. What I have contended is actually more true. If recruiting means BCS bowl games, the only way to accurately sample that is to measure the teams rankings and see where they end up down the line, not one year then measure the next four years because recruits do not make immediate impacts on teams. Coaching plays a big deal in it because out of the Top 10 teams that played their bowl games, only 3 beat a team ranked recruiting wise LOWER than it. The remaining 6 lost. 33%. Success is measured in the wins folks, and that includes the bowl games.
But, since I know you'll take this argument and state, unequivocally, that the success is measured in reaching the post season, then you'll need to study more than just a year to get that answer. In this case, 13 of the 15 teams reached bowl games. All of the teams that reached bowl games were ranked during the season. And again, the teams that won comprised of more than just the recruits for that class, so you must consider that in your analysis.
Bottom line, recruit in the Top 15, you have a better chance of going to a bowl game. That's the only thing that can be shown correctly, with the data.
