Winter Death Storm 2011 (Updated for Winter Death Storm 2014)

[steve dave]

Nat Gas company charged a penalty of $1.1 million for four hours of normal usage for a manufacturing facility in Kansas Monday morning. Usually, bill runs 70k/week. You would think these things would have been worked out or at least communicated when  this event had been in forecast for weeks.

Oh, and the snow plow got my mailbox.

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Yeah, that SPP one is who our power co mentioned we’d be letting suckle at the Omaha Public Power teet


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[AST]

Ast getting all huffy about Texas having four million people without power overnight and comparing it to the great plains doing 20-60 minute pauses is very texasy

Not huffy at all.  I was told Texas was having blackouts because Texas.

Apparently Kansas is having blackouts because Kansas.

Apples and oranges in scale.

And in case anyone was wondering, KY and KS are connected, all of the Eastern US, and a ton of Canada connected together.

And all of Western US connected together.

Not connected: Eastern US, Western US, and Texas,

Hence why Texas has 4 mill out, KS after dealing with this for 2 weeks decides "well we'll occasionally have outages every so often and not for everyone and only for like 3 hours a day for some people" Texas after it's exhausted all it's resources after 2 days: welp that's it isn't it but the power for emergency sources". That's the difference. That and natural gas for everyone (lol) is just poof, CO2 right now. And here I was told fossil fuels were the reliable ones.

Resiliency and grid reliability comes in numbers (for the most part).

And I was not trying to pick on you obv, you can't do anything about it, it's just really funny (to me) to have "we can do this on our own we're our own goddamn country" Texas brought to it's knees over a little cold in 48 hours time.

And that's with all the oil a Texan can shake at. At least it took KS 2 weeks to succumb to (occasionally) having to have (some) people go out (for 30-60 minutes). And most of that succumbing is due to Texas falling down at it's fat face sucking all the natural gas for itself as it huddles for warmth around the burnt out embers of it's pride cause it can't handle it.

I am glad you talked about apples & oranges in scale.  It is a great point.

Roughly the same number as or more people were out of power in Texas than the entire population of Kansas.  Maybe that brings to light the scale difference in how many people the Texas grid is providing power too.  To go even further, it looks like ERCOT services most likely twice as many people as SPP.

The infrastructure and houses are not built with this cold of weather in consideration.  Why?  Because historically there is not a need for it.  So when this type of event happens, there becomes way more demand per person/household than our northern counterparts.

This is in no way a post white-knighting ERCOT and it is becoming pretty apparent as this event unfolds they are a mumped ip group.  Several of its board members do not even live in Texas.  So this does not appear to be a Texas only mindset as has been implied heavily.  The chair and vice-chair live in Michigan and Germany so this is apparently not Texas only thinking.

For the record, going off of the little information that is available on their actions at this point, I hope that ERCOT is severely overhauled or even dismantled after the investigation into this event.

But to say you are comparing apples to apples in referring to the blackout in Kansas and Texas is just as disingenuous on your end. 

[8manpick]

Should get you some of this beautiful clean Illinois nuclear, ol’ reliable, as I like to call it

[wetwillie]

Hope you and your family are staying safe AST.  This has moved from inconvenience to perilous really quickly for Texans. To your point I think ERCOT will have to change coming out of this.

[8manpick]

For a little more context, the heating design day temperature in Kansas City is -1, in San Antonio it’s 26, Dallas 17.  Equipment generally has some safety built in, so you can go below that for a little while, but at some point you won’t be able to keep up. Also, the building codes require less insulation in southern climates because you don’t have the extreme cold temperatures, so houses can lose heat more quickly when they get outside the bounds of the design conditions. These relative temperatures are more important than absolutes when considering the impact on the infrastructure as a whole.

[TheHamburglar]

One thing I’ve noticed in this storm is Arrogant Shitting on Texas guy is the new Arrogant Texan.

[AST]

Hope you and your family are staying safe AST.  This has moved from inconvenience to perilous really quickly for Texans. To your point I think ERCOT will have to change coming out of this.

Thank you, we are.  We had 4 x 1 hour power outages, 2 x 5 hour, 1 x 12 hour.  Power was only on for 1-2 hours between each of those instances.   We have had power back on for 18 hours now without interruption which is fantastic.

Fortunately we converted our gas fireplace to wood when we bought our house 7 years ago so our tv room, adjacent to kitchen, has been manageable through the blackouts so long as I fueled it every 30 minutes.  That made for some major sleep deprivation for me but kept my wife and boy warm and sleeping.  We also have a gas wall heater in our bathroom which helped.

My brother and parents in the Hill Country are not as lucky.  They have been without power for 4 & 3 days.  Not ERCOT related.  Ice storm and they just received another round of ice overnight.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Hope you and your family are staying safe AST.  This has moved from inconvenience to perilous really quickly for Texans. To your point I think ERCOT will have to change coming out of this.

Thank you, we are.  We had 4 x 1 hour power outages, 2 x 5 hour, 1 x 12 hour.  Power was only on for 1-2 hours between each of those instances.   We have had power back on for 18 hours now without interruption which is fantastic.

Fortunately we converted our gas fireplace to wood when we bought our house 7 years ago so our tv room, adjacent to kitchen, has been manageable through the blackouts so long as I fueled it every 30 minutes.  That made for some major sleep deprivation for me but kept my wife and boy warm and sleeping.  We also have a gas wall heater in our bathroom which helped.

My brother and parents in the Hill Country are not as lucky.  They have been without power for 4 & 3 days.  Not ERCOT related.  Ice storm and they just received another round of ice overnight.

This is a really bad situation. Real thoughts and prayers to folks in the great state of Texas.

[slackcat]

Propane and wood here in SEK along with a REC who hasn't shut down yet.


I feel for your brother and parents AST, I've been through that crap.  Cost me deep freezer of beef.

[AST]

Srs, I am buying a generator because of this debacle & the only thing to decide is if it is gas operated/moveable or natural gas/permanent.  My leaning is gas operated.

[slackcat]

what if you lose gas service? 

[AST]

what if you lose gas service?

That is why I am leaning gas over natural gas.

[CNS]

does this go here?

https://www.valleycentral.com/news/ex-colorado-city-mayor-catching-heat-for-comments-about-citizens-affected-by-cold/

[Jobu]

Srs, I am buying a generator because of this debacle & the only thing to decide is if it is gas operated/moveable or natural gas/permanent.  My leaning is gas operated.

Would LP be an option?

[AST]

Srs, I am buying a generator because of this debacle & the only thing to decide is if it is gas operated/moveable or natural gas/permanent.  My leaning is gas operated.

Would LP be an option?

Not really too keen on having an LP tank on what is already a smallish lot, even if underground.  Getting it filled in North Texas can also be problematic as we are more likely to see severe ice events than we are snow.  Compound that with not having the ability to clear roads well here and that is a red flag.  Lots of the surrounding area lost their heating ability as LP supplies disappeared overnight on the first day of this event.

I guess there could be worse things than keeping a dozen 20lb tanks around just in case.  But if I could fill up containers of gas before an event and don’t wnd up needing them, at least I could offload them into my vehicles at first opportunity.

[mocat]

For a little more context, the heating design day temperature in Kansas City is -1, in San Antonio it’s 26, Dallas 17.  Equipment generally has some safety built in, so you can go below that for a little while, but at some point you won’t be able to keep up. Also, the building codes require less insulation in southern climates because you don’t have the extreme cold temperatures, so houses can lose heat more quickly when they get outside the bounds of the design conditions. These relative temperatures are more important than absolutes when considering the impact on the infrastructure as a whole.

i assume those temps are from the commercial building code? do they apply to industrial buildings?

[8manpick]

For a little more context, the heating design day temperature in Kansas City is -1, in San Antonio it’s 26, Dallas 17.  Equipment generally has some safety built in, so you can go below that for a little while, but at some point you won’t be able to keep up. Also, the building codes require less insulation in southern climates because you don’t have the extreme cold temperatures, so houses can lose heat more quickly when they get outside the bounds of the design conditions. These relative temperatures are more important than absolutes when considering the impact on the infrastructure as a whole.

i assume those temps are from the commercial building code? do they apply to industrial buildings?

Those are design conditions for HVAC equipment, which would apply to the HVAC in an industrial setting, but I don’t know what other equipment would be designed for.

[DQ12]

Sorry if I missed it, but would "being part of the federal system" (sorry if this is phrased incorrectly) have done anything to help prevent Texas' situation?  I see people referencing that, but I'm unclear how that figures into it exactly.

[AST]

Sorry if I missed it, but would "being part of the federal system" (sorry if this is phrased incorrectly) have done anything to help prevent Texas' situation?  I see people referencing that, but I'm unclear how that figures into it exactly.

My understanding is the biggest failure is/was energy providers failing to act on recommendations to better weatherproof power facilities after the last major blackout event 10 years ago.  Because that was all it was, a recommendation without any weight behind it and the energy producers passed as it was “too costly.”

Then, ERCOT failed to order  additional available power online 2 weeks ago when the forecast became abundantly clear.  Those supplies were down for maintenance but could have been brought up in time.  Their refusal to respond to why it was not done has led to mass speculation of a cash grab for certain groups.

For the most part, sensors freezing leading to generator failure and an unknown ability/desire to ramp back up production, which was possible, to meet a very clear increased demand.

And to be clear, the generator failures occurred across all generator fields.  Nuclear, coal, natural gas, and wind turbine.

So if being part of federal oversight could have insured that weatherized recommendations were met as well as ensured forecasted power demands were met, it could have made a huge difference.

But I am not an expert in the field so I have no idea.

[Stupid Fitz]

Sorry if I missed it, but would "being part of the federal system" (sorry if this is phrased incorrectly) have done anything to help prevent Texas' situation?  I see people referencing that, but I'm unclear how that figures into it exactly.

My understanding is the biggest failure is/was energy providers failing to act on recommendations to better weatherproof power facilities after the last major blackout event 10 years ago.  Because that was all it was, a recommendation without any weight behind it and the energy producers passed as it was “too costly.”

Then, ERCOT failed to order  additional available power online 2 weeks ago when the forecast became abundantly clear.  Those supplies were down for maintenance but could have been brought up in time.  Their refusal to respond to why it was not done has led to mass speculation of a cash grab for certain groups.

For the most part, sensors freezing leading to generator failure and an unknown ability/desire to ramp back up production, which was possible, to meet a very clear increased demand.

And to be clear, the generator failures occurred across all generator fields.  Nuclear, coal, natural gas, and wind turbine.

So if being part of federal oversight could have insured that weatherized recommendations were met as well as ensured forecasted power demands were met, it could have made a huge difference.

But I am not an expert in the field so I have no idea.

Rick Perry says you would all rather freeze to death than get Federal help. Is this true?

[AST]

Sorry if I missed it, but would "being part of the federal system" (sorry if this is phrased incorrectly) have done anything to help prevent Texas' situation?  I see people referencing that, but I'm unclear how that figures into it exactly.

My understanding is the biggest failure is/was energy providers failing to act on recommendations to better weatherproof power facilities after the last major blackout event 10 years ago.  Because that was all it was, a recommendation without any weight behind it and the energy producers passed as it was “too costly.”

Then, ERCOT failed to order  additional available power online 2 weeks ago when the forecast became abundantly clear.  Those supplies were down for maintenance but could have been brought up in time.  Their refusal to respond to why it was not done has led to mass speculation of a cash grab for certain groups.

For the most part, sensors freezing leading to generator failure and an unknown ability/desire to ramp back up production, which was possible, to meet a very clear increased demand.

And to be clear, the generator failures occurred across all generator fields.  Nuclear, coal, natural gas, and wind turbine.

So if being part of federal oversight could have insured that weatherized recommendations were met as well as ensured forecasted power demands were met, it could have made a huge difference.

But I am not an expert in the field so I have no idea.

Rick Perry says you would all rather freeze to death than get Federal help. Is this true?

I have never looked to Rick Perry for opinions or advice and am not about to start now.

But no, I would rather have power if possible.  Dying is pretty much my last resort in all situations.  I am not sure which occasions I would chose dying over do do not ask as they will have to be considered on a case by case scenario.

[star seed 7]

(WARNING: this is something I read but it's also a subject I have no clue on so it might be wrong) Federal regulation incentives the energy producers toward maintenance by allowing them to recoup profit at 1:1 for money spent on maintenance. This means higher energy prices. Texas said eff the feds we want low prices and cut maintenance because it costs money. Obviously that will eventually come back to bite you in the ass.  Who knows how much this is to blame, as it seems like there are a myriad of failures all over.

I agree that this event is large enough that Texas will probably have to change, it will be interesting to see how.

[CHONGS]

Nothing will change in Texas.

[wetwillie]

Nothing will change in Texas.

Attitude reflect leadership, captain.

[AST]

Nothing will change in Texas.

It will but it will be slow.  Despite some people claiming the contrary, the only insulation for outages in this event were either proximity to critical infrastructure and/or hospitals or having a generator.  Some of the richest zip codes in the metroplex were without power for greater than 50% of the time and shouldered a huge load of the energy bleed off.

Texas is not the same Texas it was 10 years ago.  More influx of out-of-staters is slowly changing the atmosphere.  Those people losing power are not the same crop of people as before.  These neighborhoods are now full of transplants whose politics align differently.  Doing without power in order for cronies to make a buck is no longer in the interest of people as the neighborhoods are now getting filled with CEOs and executives whose businesses have relocated for the business climate.