Author Topic: The Royals (Read 5843822 times)

kso_FAN · « **Reply #53550 on:** October 26, 2015, 11:29:48 AM »

Just snagged Section 209 Row LL from the Royals website randomly!

star seed 7 · « **Reply #53551 on:** October 26, 2015, 11:37:58 AM »

Quote from: AppleJack on October 26, 2015, 11:15:00 AM

everyone explain to me what they were doing during the bottom of the 9th.

I was in my basement (my mansion) kneeling behind my couch during each pitch. b/w pitches I would pace frantically. when Donaldson grounded out I absolutely lost my crap. screamed eff YEAH really loud and woke up my child. was pretty awesome.

Royals.

Sitting at a bar not worried at all

pissclams · « **Reply #53552 on:** October 26, 2015, 11:39:11 AM »

Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on October 26, 2015, 11:29:48 AM

Just snagged Section 209 Row LL from the Royals website randomly!

that's funny, i was trying to buy that ticket. it was gone before i could.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #53553 on:** October 26, 2015, 11:40:33 AM »

Quote from: pissclams on October 26, 2015, 11:39:11 AM

Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on October 26, 2015, 11:29:48 AM
Just snagged Section 209 Row LL from the Royals website randomly!

that's funny, i was trying to buy that ticket. it was gone before i could.

Sorry clams.

I thought I was going to get the tease I got several times when the ticket pops up as available and then it says there is nothing there when you click on it.

pissclams · « **Reply #53554 on:** October 26, 2015, 11:41:35 AM »

i'm going to keep on checking, i'm sure i will find a ticket if i really want one

pissclams · « **Reply #53555 on:** October 26, 2015, 11:42:04 AM »

also very happy that the ticket went to a cat, congrats

sys · « **Reply #53556 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:13:13 PM »

volkie, cueto, ventura, young.

not sure if i like catering to the presumption of cueto having a road/home split. it puts your supposedly best pitcher in the game that is least likely to occur.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #53557 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:17:28 PM »

Quote from: sys on October 26, 2015, 02:13:13 PM

volkie, cueto, ventura, young.

not sure if i like catering to the presumption of cueto having a road/home split. it puts your supposedly best pitcher in the game that is least likely to occur.

It shows that Ned was never going to pitch Ventura 3 times, as long as he has 2 starts (if necessary) in the series I'm fine. I'm sure Ned would possibly throw him on short rest for game 6 if necessary. I think pitching Cueto at home makes sense.

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #53558 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:20:33 PM »

Quote from: sys on October 26, 2015, 02:13:13 PM

volkie, cueto, ventura, young.

not sure if i like catering to the presumption of cueto having a road/home split. it puts your supposedly best pitcher in the game that is least likely to occur.

It also increases our odds of losing Game 2. Not to be a nervous nelly / nancy neg, but I think these first two games are going to decide the series. 1-1 = Royals done.

star seed 7 · « **Reply #53559 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:21:48 PM »

Nervous nelly

420seriouscat69 · « **Reply #53560 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:23:11 PM »

Yeah, man. If there's one thing we've learned about these Royals this postseason, is that we're totally mumped if the series is tied at 1-1.

sys · « **Reply #53561 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:26:33 PM »

Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on October 26, 2015, 02:17:28 PM

Quote from: sys on October 26, 2015, 02:13:13 PM
volkie, cueto, ventura, young.

not sure if i like catering to the presumption of cueto having a road/home split. it puts your supposedly best pitcher in the game that is least likely to occur.

It shows that Ned was never going to pitch Ventura 3 times, as long as he has 2 starts (if necessary) in the series I'm fine. I'm sure Ned would possibly throw him on short rest for game 6 if necessary. I think pitching Cueto at home makes sense.

i never thought there was a chance of pitching ventura three times, and i also don't think he's good enough for that to be considered. don't see any point in pitching him on short rest in game 6. if that were to be considered, you'd need to win game 7 every bit as much as game 6, so it would make no sense.

assuming cueto doesn't eff up game 2 and get replace with medlen, all 3 will pitch 2 games. so the only real considerations are the likelihood of those games being played and home/road. this configuration makes it more likely than not (i'm pretty sure, haven't looked for actual odds) that ventura only pitches once. that does not seem optimal.

K-S-U-Wildcats! · « **Reply #53562 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:32:20 PM »

Quote from: WackyCat08 on October 26, 2015, 02:23:11 PM

Yeah, man. If there's one thing we've learned about these Royals this postseason, is that we're totally mumped if the series is tied at 1-1.

How about the ALCS this year, and the World Series last year? In both cases, we lost 2 of 3 on the road, which is to be expected. The difference between 3-2 versus 2-3 was that 2-0 start at home this year. It's huge.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #53563 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:35:17 PM »

I don't lack faith in Cueto that much at home. If he struggles, Ned has options and I'm sure he'll have a shorter leash than he did in Toronto.

sys · « **Reply #53564 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:51:28 PM »

i looked up the odds for a series ending in different games (assuming 50:50 win odds). the chances of a series ending in game 6 are .3125. divide by 2 since if the royals win in 6, no one cares if ventura didn't pitch. so you have a 15.625% chance of losing in game 6 with ventura not pitching.

so multiply .15625 x whatever % difference you think there is between cueto and ventura. i have little confidence in cueto, so i'll say .55 for ventura (home game) and .40 for cueto. .15 x .15625 = .02344. so is .02344 larger or smaller than the purported benefit of pitching cueto at home?

i don't know how to estimate that, but given that the negative impact of having ventura pitch game 7 is smaller than i would have guessed, it may be a tradeoff worth taking (i also looked up cueto's career splits, and he is worse on the road, but i don't know if he is more wore on the road than the mean that pitchers are worse on the road).

Emo EMAW · « **Reply #53565 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:57:34 PM »

sys do you enjoy the time before the game(s) or the game(s) itself(themselves) more?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #53566 on:** October 26, 2015, 02:59:23 PM »

I'm not going by Cueto's historic splits, I'm just going by this postseason. He's had one mediocre start at home (we still won), one great start at home, and one pathetic start on the road. I think we likely get something in between what he gave us in his 2 postseason home starts and maybe even gets the win Wednesday night.