regarding the sacrifices - aoki has been hitting great lately. but i believe the data indicate that sac bunting to get two runners over is pretty much a coin flip vs letting all three batters hit. so the second bunt was not an indefensible decision. the first bunt was purportedly aoki's decision. i don't know what to say about that. it's weird. the royals are kind of a weird team and aoki seems like kind of a weird dude.
Depends on the batter and specific team and opponent, but what I've seen on bunting with runners on 2nd and 3rd in tie game is that it's awash for win probability in 7th inning, and to your advantage thereafter. Never seen a defense of it in the third or fourth innings, which is when it occurred here. Especially when you're playing a team with the offensive output of the Tigers (i.e., probably going to need more than one run to win), and especially ESPECIALLY when Guthrie is on the mound. Shields is a less-worse decision, but from the analysis I've seen it was still a move that decreased the Royals' odds of winning. However, I would think it would be more to the Royals' advantage than other teams to do it anytime bottom of the sixth or thereafter, given the bullpen studs.
Predictos for remaining games? Tough matchups vs. Cleveland. Think we drop 2 of 3 to the Indians, then take 2 of 4 versus the Sox. Finish the season 3-4, and
as we scoreboard watch.
