Trump 2024

[cfbandyman]

Mir's overall thesis about trump not getting any more voters is absolutely right. It's a constantly shrinking base, either by his machinations, or by the grim reaper.

Now whether Cowherd is the right bell weather for that is obviously whatever, but it absolutely leads to Biden needs people who want to vote for him to vote for him. Trump is getting his, but he's also not getting any more.

Also ftr, I do think Trump's loss in people between 2016 to 2020 is going to be way greater than 2020 to 2024. I think 2016 was big dice roll for a lot of people and they just said eff it and went with trump. His total lack of doing anything, let alone unnecessarily antagonizing a not great situation with COVID, and then his whole turn off the lights get called for it ok fine let me do a supremely tone def blast protesters for a photo op did him in.

I just don't know if January 6th, the convictions, et al have eroded his base even more. Maybe, but I don't know if appreciable compared to the dice rollers he lost in 2020, who I assume for the most part are going full apathetic this time.

[nicname]

Trump prob lose and do a Coup d'état.

[steve dave]

Not gE’ing when I say there is zero chance outside of death that Trump loses this election. It’s in the bag.


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Let's put cash on it.

Ok, how much? This is the type of life hedge I crave.


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$100

Bet


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[Dugout DickStone]

dang some sweet political gambling action

[Stevesie60]

Does no one in this thread realize that Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016? 63,000,000 turned into 74,000,000+. And while some of those people have died off, a lot more people are going to turn out as an anti-Biden vote. The reason he won in 2016 is because no one was excited to turn out to vote for Hilary, and this year will have the same issue. Not to mention that many of the people that came out in 2020 to vote anti-Trump will be less motivated to turn out this year.

[Kat Kid]

I realize that

[MakeItRain]

It’s nut(s) that with how shitty biden is or is alleged to be, that republicans couldn’t get anyone adequately tolerable to whip his ass in this thing.

It's equally nuts the dems can't find a suitable replacement for Biden.  It's like both parties have run out of viable candidates and have said eff it.

There are plenty of people willing to be president and could do a decent job, it's not rocket science. One party ceded itself to a cult and the other has it's head far too up it's own ass.

[MakeItRain]

Part of me thinks that the more times he can be found guilty, between now and November, the better for Don.

explain to me how this makes sense in your head

Part joke, part the observation that the more things that happen that should blatantly disqualify him from public support the more popular he seems to get.

If that were literally true Trump wouldn’t appeal, wouldn’t defend these cases etc.  but it’s not, maga just thinks if they rage cry repeat enough the cases will go away.  Like “hahaha I actually like to get my ass kicked, keep banging my wife it actually makes her like me more”

Appealing and defending the cases keeps it in the news. The more guilty verdicts, the more persecuted Trump is. If Trump just accepted them, it would take away from the persecution narrative.

The problem is this only works for those already in the cult. There's what I'd assume to be a significant portion of his 2020 voting block who have had enough. His game now is all about appealing to his base, but that's not going to get him to win, he needs dudes like this.
https://x.com/ColinCowherd/status/1588191961650933762

Problem is that now, just one election cycle later, he's fed up.

https://x.com/awfulannouncing/status/1797009075185819848

So Colin Cowherd was wrong in 2022, but he's right now?

He was clearly wrong in 2022, he's clearly done with Trump in 2024. Maybe he's done with Trump because he was so wrong two years ago, either way, it doesn't matter a single bit.

[MakeItRain]

Does no one in this thread realize that Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016? 63,000,000 turned into 74,000,000+. And while some of those people have died off, a lot more people are going to turn out as an anti-Biden vote. The reason he won in 2016 is because no one was excited to turn out to vote for Hilary, and this year will have the same issue. Not to mention that many of the people that came out in 2020 to vote anti-Trump will be less motivated to turn out this year.

I was with you until that last sentence.

[Justwin]

Part of me thinks that the more times he can be found guilty, between now and November, the better for Don.

explain to me how this makes sense in your head

Part joke, part the observation that the more things that happen that should blatantly disqualify him from public support the more popular he seems to get.

If that were literally true Trump wouldn’t appeal, wouldn’t defend these cases etc.  but it’s not, maga just thinks if they rage cry repeat enough the cases will go away.  Like “hahaha I actually like to get my ass kicked, keep banging my wife it actually makes her like me more”

Appealing and defending the cases keeps it in the news. The more guilty verdicts, the more persecuted Trump is. If Trump just accepted them, it would take away from the persecution narrative.

The problem is this only works for those already in the cult. There's what I'd assume to be a significant portion of his 2020 voting block who have had enough. His game now is all about appealing to his base, but that's not going to get him to win, he needs dudes like this.
https://x.com/ColinCowherd/status/1588191961650933762

Problem is that now, just one election cycle later, he's fed up.

https://x.com/awfulannouncing/status/1797009075185819848

So Colin Cowherd was wrong in 2022, but he's right now?

He was clearly wrong in 2022, he's clearly done with Trump in 2024. Maybe he's done with Trump because he was so wrong two years ago, either way, it doesn't matter a single bit.

I think the most thing Cowherd said there is "...it's not bad for me and my friends."

[MakeItRain]

Part of me thinks that the more times he can be found guilty, between now and November, the better for Don.

explain to me how this makes sense in your head

Part joke, part the observation that the more things that happen that should blatantly disqualify him from public support the more popular he seems to get.

If that were literally true Trump wouldn’t appeal, wouldn’t defend these cases etc.  but it’s not, maga just thinks if they rage cry repeat enough the cases will go away.  Like “hahaha I actually like to get my ass kicked, keep banging my wife it actually makes her like me more”

Appealing and defending the cases keeps it in the news. The more guilty verdicts, the more persecuted Trump is. If Trump just accepted them, it would take away from the persecution narrative.

The problem is this only works for those already in the cult. There's what I'd assume to be a significant portion of his 2020 voting block who have had enough. His game now is all about appealing to his base, but that's not going to get him to win, he needs dudes like this.
https://x.com/ColinCowherd/status/1588191961650933762

Problem is that now, just one election cycle later, he's fed up.

https://x.com/awfulannouncing/status/1797009075185819848

So Colin Cowherd was wrong in 2022, but he's right now?

He was clearly wrong in 2022, he's clearly done with Trump in 2024. Maybe he's done with Trump because he was so wrong two years ago, either way, it doesn't matter a single bit.

I think the most thing Cowherd said there is "...it's not bad for me and my friends."

What are you doing here? Why do you keep trying to form and change the narrative, like who are you trying to convince? He said trump is a felon who has surrounded himself by other felons. He used the term "cabal of convicts" to describe trump and his circle. How much stronger of a repudiation do you need? Clearly to you, that isn't that big of a deal, I'm guessing that Cowherd didn't use that language publicly because he still feels the same way about trump.

[sonofdaxjones]

A cabal of felons. 

Colin Cowherd . . . The Voice of #blueanon?

"Prosecutors Got Trump But They Contorted the Law,” explained Honig in New York Magazine. “The charges against Trump are obscure and nearly entirely unprecedented,” he said. “In fact, no state prosecutor— in New York, or Wyoming, or anywhere — has ever charged federal election laws as a direct or predicate state crime against anyone for anything. None. Ever.”

"Both of these things can be true at once: The jury did its job, and this case was an ill-conceived, unjustified mess. Sure, victory is the great deodorant, but a guilty verdict doesn’t make it all pure and right,"

"'But they won' is no defense to a strained, convoluted reach unless the goal is to 'win,' now, by any means necessary and worry about the credibility of the case and the fallout later."

Elie Honig - NY Magazine

[MakeItRain]

A cabal of felons. 

Colin Cowherd . . . The Voice of #blueanon?

"Prosecutors Got Trump But They Contorted the Law,” explained Honig in New York Magazine. “The charges against Trump are obscure and nearly entirely unprecedented,” he said. “In fact, no state prosecutor— in New York, or Wyoming, or anywhere — has ever charged federal election laws as a direct or predicate state crime against anyone for anything. None. Ever.”

"Both of these things can be true at once: The jury did its job, and this case was an ill-conceived, unjustified mess. Sure, victory is the great deodorant, but a guilty verdict doesn’t make it all pure and right,"

"'But they won' is no defense to a strained, convoluted reach unless the goal is to 'win,' now, by any means necessary and worry about the credibility of the case and the fallout later."

Elie Honig - NY Magazine

That's not the point though, now isn't?

[sonofdaxjones]

Oh, then what was the point?

What made what Trump do any different then say the Clinton campaign improperly classifying campaign expenditures, Obama doing the same on top of purposefully misclassifying thousands of donations from foreign entities? What made those offenses fine worthy, but what Trump did a felony?  Let's also note that the Clinton campaign was headquartered in NY.

[MakeItRain]

Oh, then what was the point?

What made what Trump do any different then say the Clinton campaign improperly classifying campaign expenditures, Obama doing the same on top of purposefully misclassifying thousands of donations from foreign entities? What made those offenses fine worthy, but what Trump did a felony?  Let's also note that the Clinton campaign was headquartered in NY.

We weren't discussing the merits of the charges, it was anecdotal evidence of as someone who previously publicly endorsed, at the very least the direction of the republican party under trump, who now seems to be all the way out, for what looks like a couple of reasons.

[sonofdaxjones]

Next time I'll put "I digress" after the question mark

[Institutional Control]

I think low turnout is more unpredictable. A lot of Biden voters may feel this verdict means the election is in the bag

The rationale there is that lower turnout means the people who are voting tend to be more engaged/informed than otherwise. And this favors Biden.

LOL

i think low turn out will be because of a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate which will heavily favor Trump winning.


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[chum1]

I think low turnout is more unpredictable. A lot of Biden voters may feel this verdict means the election is in the bag

The rationale there is that lower turnout means the people who are voting tend to be more engaged/informed than otherwise. And this favors Biden.

LOL

i think low turn out will be because of a lack of enthusiasm for either candidate which will heavily favor Trump winning.

FWIW I was not just giving a hunch of mine. I was stating what election experts say on the matter.

Trump 2024 benefits when more low info voters vote. Since the higher info voters vote regardless of overall turnout, higher overall turnout means more low info voter voting.

[Katpappy]

Does no one in this thread realize that Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016? 63,000,000 turned into 74,000,000+. And while some of those people have died off, a lot more people are going to turn out as an anti-Biden vote. The reason he won in 2016 is because no one was excited to turn out to vote for Hilary, and this year will have the same issue. Not to mention that many of the people that came out in 2020 to vote anti-Trump will be less motivated to turn out this year.

Don't you know that Hilary won the popular vote; Trump won the electoral vote.

[WildcatNkilt]

Does no one in this thread realize that Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016? 63,000,000 turned into 74,000,000+. And while some of those people have died off, a lot more people are going to turn out as an anti-Biden vote. The reason he won in 2016 is because no one was excited to turn out to vote for Hilary, and this year will have the same issue. Not to mention that many of the people that came out in 2020 to vote anti-Trump will be less motivated to turn out this year.

Don't you know that Hilary won the popular vote; Trump won the electoral vote.

Independent and Dem voters didn't have to turn out to vote for Hilary because they all thought she had it in the bag.  She still had over 3m more popular votes than he did.  I think that was a lesson Dems learned and never want to happen again.  You saw that in 2020.  Trump had a huge turnout, and he still got smoked by Biden. 

Trump could still have a great turnout and get smoked, even if people are unhappy with Biden.  Dems and anti-Trumpers outnumber Pubs.  Dems will vote to prevent 2016 whether they like Biden or not.  They will vote to protect abortion rights and potential for Supreme Court nominations.  Dems' laziness in 2016 lost them multiple seats on the Supreme Court that they still have to deal with 8 years later and what will be longer.

We have 5 months before election and the Trump boat and golf cart parades are few and far between compared to 4 years ago.  He is a convicted felon, he flamed J6, and he has many other legal issues ahead.  He lost his mojo.  His fans don't show up to his speaking events.  His Maga counterparts in the House and Senate are exhausting, even for moderate Pubs. 

You all want to call out the possible low turnout for Biden, but I'd actually expect a low turnout for Trump on November 5th.  He lost his spark. 

[Pete]

Biden did better with Women than Hillary, so using Hillary turnout as an analogy isn’t terribly useful.

From Grok….

In the 2020 US presidential election, more women voted for Joe Biden than for Donald Trump, with Biden winning 57% of the women's vote. This information comes from a tweet by @thecableng on November 7, 2020.

In the 2016 US presidential election, Hillary Clinton won 54% of the women's vote. This information comes from a tweet by @NateSilver538 on March 27, 2017.

Therefore, Joe Biden did slightly better with women voters in the 2020 US presidential election than Hillary Clinton did in the 2016 US presidential election.

[WildcatNkilt]

Biden did better with Women than Hillary, so using Hillary turnout as an analogy isn’t terribly useful.

From Grok….

In the 2020 US presidential election, more women voted for Joe Biden than for Donald Trump, with Biden winning 57% of the women's vote. This information comes from a tweet by @thecableng on November 7, 2020.

In the 2016 US presidential election, Hillary Clinton won 54% of the women's vote. This information comes from a tweet by @NateSilver538 on March 27, 2017.

Therefore, Joe Biden did slightly better with women voters in the 2020 US presidential election than Hillary Clinton did in the 2016 US presidential election.

I expect that % to go up for Biden given the effort from Republicans to take away abortion rights over the last 4 years. 

[Dugout DickStone]

The next president will appoint at least 1 SCJ.  probably more.  this will be a big issue and helps Biden for turnout.

[Trim]

As motivated as last time to vote for Biden and against Trump.  When Trump's president, he makes a super easy scapegoat for local dems (or worse) to get elected and/or do dumb crap locally.  Can't afford the superfreaks any room to get away with screaming that the mod-iest principles that matter most day-to-day are somehow maga, trump, etc.

[Spracne]

Does no one in this thread realize that Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016? 63,000,000 turned into 74,000,000+. And while some of those people have died off, a lot more people are going to turn out as an anti-Biden vote. The reason he won in 2016 is because no one was excited to turn out to vote for Hilary, and this year will have the same issue. Not to mention that many of the people that came out in 2020 to vote anti-Trump will be less motivated to turn out this year.

Don't you know that Hilary won the popular vote; Trump won the electoral vote.

Independent and Dem voters didn't have to turn out to vote for Hilary because they all thought she had it in the bag.  She still had over 3m more popular votes than he did.  I think that was a lesson Dems learned and never want to happen again.  You saw that in 2020.  Trump had a huge turnout, and he still got smoked by Biden. 

Trump could still have a great turnout and get smoked, even if people are unhappy with Biden.  Dems and anti-Trumpers outnumber Pubs.  Dems will vote to prevent 2016 whether they like Biden or not.  They will vote to protect abortion rights and potential for Supreme Court nominations.  Dems' laziness in 2016 lost them multiple seats on the Supreme Court that they still have to deal with 8 years later and what will be longer.

We have 5 months before election and the Trump boat and golf cart parades are few and far between compared to 4 years ago.  He is a convicted felon, he flamed J6, and he has many other legal issues ahead.  He lost his mojo.  His fans don't show up to his speaking events.  His Maga counterparts in the House and Senate are exhausting, even for moderate Pubs. 

You all want to call out the possible low turnout for Biden, but I'd actually expect a low turnout for Trump on November 5th.  He lost his spark.

Wild, wild horses couldn't drag me away from voting this November 5th (not that it will matter for President in Texas). I can't believe that chud had the fortune of appointing 3 Justices in fewer than 4 years. I don't think that's ever happened.