It's going to be an interesting one. Biden/those that will vote for him are going to have to not act like he's got it in the bag.
Like reasons for Biden:
Roe V Wade
Trump conviction/the inevitable pardoning of himself and all that crap
Economy is actually not that bad despite what people feel
Pure motivation of people who hate Trump
Reasons for Trump winning:
Absolutely pissed off and motivated voters, though their numbers dwindle over time
Last four years have just been meh 9but again not terrible, but to trump voters it's basically hell)
Never undervalue the value of hatred.
They changed a bunch of voting laws that made it harder
I don't know, it really depends on obviously who shows up. I think Biden can do it again but there is just so much pissed off trump people it's hard to be a for sure thing. I personally would find it crazy if they both passed away before then and then it's a really cluster, just for the sheer chaos (or kayos if you're so inclined)