Author Topic: ChONGS  (Read 7393 times)

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Offline PurpleOil

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #50 on: October 18, 2022, 08:26:51 AM »
I just don't see us going 1-5 on our final 6 games. WVU and Baylor aren't that good, and I feel we'll win at least 1 of TCU, OSU, & Texas with going 2-1 against them more likely.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #51 on: October 18, 2022, 08:28:36 AM »
ChONGS is the first computer model that I've ever seen that actually gets less accurate as the season goes on.

Offline mocat

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #52 on: October 18, 2022, 10:09:20 AM »
Here is how ChONGS sees KSU finishing up the year:


are you able to determine why baylor and wvu kick our ass right after we endure nailbiters vs okst and texas? is it a "styles make fights" type deal, and chongs thinks kleiman sucks crap against teams that employ the bad at football style?

Offline michigancat

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #53 on: October 18, 2022, 10:12:18 AM »
Here is how ChONGS sees KSU finishing up the year:


are you able to determine why baylor and wvu kick our ass right after we endure nailbiters vs okst and texas? is it a "styles make fights" type deal, and chongs thinks kleiman sucks crap against teams that employ the bad at football style?
I think he gives a ton of weight to home field advantage

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #54 on: October 18, 2022, 10:41:27 AM »
Home field only gives about 3 points.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #55 on: October 18, 2022, 10:46:57 AM »
Although I am checking that my training data isn't biased incorrectly (which it might be).

Offline michigancat

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #56 on: October 18, 2022, 10:47:20 AM »
Home field only gives about 3 points.

would that make us -3 or -6 at home vs. WVU?

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #57 on: October 18, 2022, 10:51:15 AM »
-3 at home, -6 at neutral

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #58 on: October 18, 2022, 12:14:51 PM »
Soooooo

I was very suspicious of that predicted run of WV wins and I found a mistake in my projections (wrong games were getting played).  I also realized that my training data wasn't taking into account home field advantage in the way I thought I was, so I also corrected that.

This looks more reasonable (to me anyway):


Big 12 projections:



Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #59 on: October 18, 2022, 12:16:19 PM »
And here are the adjusted pix for week 8:




Offline mocat

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #60 on: October 18, 2022, 12:20:49 PM »
-3 at home, -6 at neutral
So home field is worth 6 points to the spread. Seems high but maybe the data backs that up over time

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #61 on: October 18, 2022, 12:53:40 PM »
Predicting a barn burner in Fort Worth on Saturday night on FS1!  Hopefully Klandy man can somehow  stop TLBR’s offensive Juggernaught.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline Shooter Jones

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #62 on: October 18, 2022, 01:07:54 PM »
7-2 and a Dr. Pepper appearance. Can we just sign up for that now and not play the rest of the games?

Offline mocat

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #63 on: October 18, 2022, 01:19:23 PM »
chongs, can you believe the spread for syracuse @ clemson? did syracuse lose their qb or something?

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #64 on: October 18, 2022, 01:38:40 PM »
chongs, can you believe the spread for syracuse @ clemson? did syracuse lose their qb or something?
I mean I get it.  It's been a very long time since anyone has had to take Syracuse seriously and Clemson is still Clemson. 

Offline Spracne

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #65 on: October 18, 2022, 02:03:40 PM »
Why does ChONGS have KU defeating Ok. State?

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #66 on: October 18, 2022, 02:56:45 PM »
It will be devastating if we go 4-2 over this next stretch and don’t make it to Arlington.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #67 on: October 18, 2022, 03:15:02 PM »
Why does ChONGS have KU defeating Ok. State?

OSU has looked good, not great. They seem similar to KU to me.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #68 on: October 18, 2022, 06:05:38 PM »
It will be devastating if we go 4-2 over this next stretch and don’t make it to Arlington.

If we win the rest of our home contests I think that it would be impossible to not be in the Dr Pepper.  We should do that.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline ben ji

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #69 on: October 18, 2022, 07:47:28 PM »
Soooooo

I was very suspicious of that predicted run of WV wins and I found a mistake in my projections (wrong games were getting played).  I also realized that my training data wasn't taking into account home field advantage in the way I thought I was, so I also corrected that.

This looks more reasonable (to me anyway):


Big 12 projections:

I like this version much better

Online catastrophe

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #70 on: October 18, 2022, 09:25:57 PM »
ChONGS has no respect for OSU,

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #71 on: October 18, 2022, 11:38:06 PM »
I also have no respect for OSU. OU will finish ahead of them.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #72 on: October 19, 2022, 03:01:23 AM »
I also have no respect for OSU. OU will finish ahead of them.


Offline Stupid Fitz

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #73 on: October 19, 2022, 01:11:31 PM »
Soooooo

I was very suspicious of that predicted run of WV wins and I found a mistake in my projections (wrong games were getting played).  I also realized that my training data wasn't taking into account home field advantage in the way I thought I was, so I also corrected that.

This looks more reasonable (to me anyway):


Big 12 projections:

I like this version much better

yeah, this meaningless data (no offense Chongs) makes me feel a lot better too.

Offline Hurricane Cat

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #74 on: October 19, 2022, 04:26:06 PM »
Can we make some tweeks to ChONGS so that if favors the cats more?

Thanks CHONGS.  I much prefer ChONGS when it predicts more Cats' wins  :thumbsup: