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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on September 30, 2022, 12:36:46 PM
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Well its that time of year again. Are you ready for yet another unneeded ranking system? Too bad! Introducing:
ChONGS (CHONG's Objective Numbering Guide System)
Brief summary of the columns
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/TlHg9.png)
So what are "net effective points"? Essentially this is how many more (or less) points a team would score (or allow) per drive against an average team while taking into account field position. Basically long drives which result in a score count for a bit more than a short drive that results in a score. And an offense is penalized for not scoring on a drive when starting from good field position. For example, an average team will score about a 0.9 points for a drive that starts on the 25 yard line (like after a touch back on kickoff), and an average team will score about 4.3 points when starting a drive from the opponent's 25 yard line. I put actual in quotes because I still give some credit for offense that moves the ball, but doesn't score (that's because in principle in makes it harder for the other offense to score from worse field position). If a team gives up a pick six when starting a drive from the opponents 25 yard line, that will result in about -11 points. If the team makes a FG when starting a drive from the opponents 25 yard line that will result in -1.3 points, and if they miss it results in -2.97.
And here it is, the TOP 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/7LLtCCL.png)
Well, well, well, look at your Kansas State Wildcats!
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/D8NCVWx.png)
Right now we have the least efficient offense (not a surprise give them first three games), but that defense looks really good.
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Week 5 picks
KSU matchup
(https://i.imgur.com/nQuaJIf.png)
KSU ChONG prediction
(https://i.imgur.com/3ZzMOHT.png)
ChONG prediciotns for all games
(https://i.imgur.com/IGLTScB.png)
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CHONGS is sexy as eff
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:love:
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:excited:
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the big 12 is stacked
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:love: :love:
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the big 12 is stacked
Dat sunflower showdown looking saucy
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Week 5 picks
KSU matchup
(https://i.imgur.com/nQuaJIf.png)
KSU ChONG prediction
(https://i.imgur.com/3ZzMOHT.png)
ChONG prediciotns for all games
(https://i.imgur.com/IGLTScB.png)
:surprised:
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Week 6
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/SUnlrji.png)
Cats flip-flop with the Hawks, and TCU makes a jump.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/FcwyIK8.png)
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SON OF A BITCH SQUAWK
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Week 6 pix
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KSU Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/H89UeGW.png)
Iowa State might have the worst offense in the conference. Let's hope we can take advantage of that.
KSU ChONGS prediction:
(https://i.imgur.com/OZeiFxC.png)
Probably closer than people here think it should be. ChONGS loves the defense, but is skeptical of the Cats offense.
ChONGS predictos for all games:
(https://i.imgur.com/vVgjllL.png)
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SON OF A BITCH SQUAWK
Look who eclipsed them in offensive efficiency ranking tho…
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TCU by only one point over KU!
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Whoah, we talkin' ChONGS in here???
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You’re well overdue to make your ranking the kenpom of cfb brother
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Week 7
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/tPLRRke.png)
Our shaky performance in Ames makes the Cats slip a spot, but not too bad.
Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/YUPw4Q0.png)
The offense can't stay this bad if the Cats want a shot at the conference title. Maybe TCU, Oklahoma St, Baylor, and Texas will beat each other for us though. Two conference losses might get you in still, but we'd need the tiebreakers.
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Week 7 pix
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Bye week for the Wlidcats.
Everyone else:
(https://i.imgur.com/h7NTqGd.png)
ChONGS disrespecting the Jayhawks AND picking Tennessee over Alabama?...I am not sure about it.
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Yeah, offense needs to take two steps forward at least and just finish. Wonder though how much "better" we'd be with like that missed TD of Knowles, or all the missed FGs, or in general if we finished off drives instead of stupid penalties inside the redzone. I get that's a lot of "just be better" but I'm somewhat hopeful cause we definitely have I think a lot of potential we just often piss it away.
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This thing is really dialed in this year, a masterpiece.
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That Baylor -WVU predicto is interesting.
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That Baylor -WVU predicto is interesting.
Home field advantage seems to be quite heavily weighted.
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That Baylor -WVU predicto is interesting.
Home field advantage seems to be quite heavily weighted.
The ChONGeth giveth
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Crazy to think that KU won by 13 @ WVU.
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That Baylor -WVU predicto is interesting.
Home field advantage seems to be quite heavily weighted.
The ChONGeth giveth
The ChONG foretells a loss for KU this week!
(https://media2.giphy.com/media/CToJzvhONI6A0/giphy.gif)
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There's a reason I don't bet on sports, and that's because I'm not a degenerate. But all of my algorithms suggest a win for the 'hawks this weekend. Sadly, I won't be able to watch it happen.
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There's a reason I don't bet on sports, and that's because I'm not a degenerate. But all of my algorithms suggest a win for the 'hawks this weekend. Sadly, I won't be able to watch it happen.
Work release furlough?
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There's a reason I don't bet on sports, and that's because I'm not a degenerate. But all of my algorithms suggest a win for the 'hawks this weekend. Sadly, I won't be able to watch it happen.
Work release furlough?
Family obligations, to which I'm happy to attend.
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They only way I’d miss a game is if I was busy.
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Yeah, well, I'm going to be busy. Busy watching on my phone, amirite?
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That Baylor -WVU predicto is interesting.
Home field advantage seems to be quite heavily weighted.
The ChONGeth giveth
Indeed it does. I've got WV in a moneyline round robin with KU and the Vols. We'll see what happens. :peek:
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That Baylor -WVU predicto is interesting.
Home field advantage seems to be quite heavily weighted.
The ChONGeth giveth
Indeed it does. I've got WV in a moneyline round robin with KU and the Vols. We'll see what happens. :peek:
Good teams win. Great teams cover.
Apparently so do the 'Eers. Correlation ? Causation and all that.
Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
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Chong is looking pretty good on games I care about.
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ChONGS has made it abundantly clear the home team is holding all the cards. This makes me v nervous for all of our remaining road games
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Week 8
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/6f2hBBd.png)
Cats slide back up a spot in the bye week.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/7le9wfj.png)
But Texas leaps over us for the second spot in the conference. Also, as of now the Cats have the least efficient offense in the Big 12 --- improvement there is critical to stay in the race to the title game, heck the line between the upper half and bottom half of the Big 12 is super thin...a couple of losses can easily see us falling to last place quickly.
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Week 8 pix
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KSU match up
(https://i.imgur.com/LvCdLpp.png)
This week we'll se how good the defense really might be. As of today, TCU and Texas are the only two teams in the Big 12 with better efficiency stats than us. A win versus TCU gives the Cats the opportunity to really cement a strong case for being one of the top two teams in the conference.
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/X97wXZe.png)
A somewhat high scoring game, but it still predicts a firm loss. But remember, the guy who come up with this is a bit of a dumbass.
All picks:
(https://i.imgur.com/jNA7jMk.png)
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Your Stanford prediction last week was nails
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We're good enough to go 3-0 over these next three weeks, and we're also suspect enough to go 0-3, and obviously everything in between.
Watching OSU vs TCU this weekend, I didn't see anything that showed me we couldn't beat either of those teams, but they also have plenty of talent to beat us. I guess that's why they play the games.
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As of today, is ChONGS predicting a 7-2 conference finish and Dr. Pepper appearance?
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As of today, is ChONGS predicting a 7-2 conference finish and Dr. Pepper appearance?
That would be a very successful year!
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As of today, is ChONGS predicting a 7-2 conference finish and Dr. Pepper appearance?
Alas, sadly it is not. Here comes a splash of cold water (well projected water).
Here is how ChONGS sees KSU finishing up the year:
(https://i.imgur.com/rQJIRg9.png)
A string of brutal losses there pushes the Cats out of contention and makes the Sunflower Showdown a game for bowl eligibility. I really really hope this isn't how it ends up.
Here's how the whole B12 shakes out:
(https://i.imgur.com/oXW6HXB.png)
I didn't get into tiebreakers, but this is ordered from left to right and top to bottom in terms on conference wins. A four way tie between 6-3 teams for first would be very funny IMO.
For shits and gigs, here's the projected top 25 (before conference champ games):
(https://i.imgur.com/XuxsxQw.png)
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As of today, is ChONGS predicting a 7-2 conference finish and Dr. Pepper appearance?
Alas, sadly it is not. Here comes a splash of cold water (well projected water).
Here is how ChONGS sees KSU finishing up the year:
(https://i.imgur.com/rQJIRg9.png)
A string of brutal losses there pushes the Cats out of contention and makes the Sunflower Showdown a game for bowl eligibility. I really really hope this isn't how it ends up.
Here's how the whole B12 shakes out:
(https://i.imgur.com/oXW6HXB.png)
I didn't get into tiebreakers, but this is ordered from left to right and top to bottom in terms on conference wins. A four way tie between 6-3 teams for first would be very funny IMO.
For shits and gigs, here's the projected top 25 (before conference champ games):
(https://i.imgur.com/XuxsxQw.png)
Mods please change the thread name to Chongs is a hater
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On a bright note, before the ISU game it predicted us to win every game left except for at WVU. We just need to get better on offense and a lot of these flip over again in our favor.
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On a bright note, before the ISU game it predicted us to win every game left except for at WVU. We just need to get better on offense and a lot of these flip over again in our favor.
If there is a way to edit can you run a scenario where Malik does not fumble at the 1" line @ ISU?
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On a bright note, before the ISU game it predicted us to win every game left except for at WVU. We just need to get better on offense and a lot of these flip over again in our favor.
If there is a way to edit can you run a scenario where Malik does not fumble at the 1" line @ ISU?
Yeah, Malik doesn't rear that handwarmer on his butt the Iowa State defender grabbed to slow him down and get leverage to reach for the ball.
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Predicting 4 teams with 3 losses...my god, it's going to be a blood bath
The 9,000 tie-breaker scenarios the last few weeks would be fun.
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KSU vs KU for bowl eligibility would be horrifying.
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There was a time not long ago the ChONGS rating system was skyrocketing. May have even got a mention on Gameday or Big Noon Saturday. But now this thing is just wet garbage. Sad.
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KSU vs KU for bowl eligibility would be horrifying.
Will Howard vs Jason Bean for a trip to the Pinstripe Bowl
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Can we make some tweeks to ChONGS so that if favors the cats more?
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I just don't see us going 1-5 on our final 6 games. WVU and Baylor aren't that good, and I feel we'll win at least 1 of TCU, OSU, & Texas with going 2-1 against them more likely.
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ChONGS is the first computer model that I've ever seen that actually gets less accurate as the season goes on.
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Here is how ChONGS sees KSU finishing up the year:
(https://i.imgur.com/rQJIRg9.png)
are you able to determine why baylor and wvu kick our ass right after we endure nailbiters vs okst and texas? is it a "styles make fights" type deal, and chongs thinks kleiman sucks crap against teams that employ the bad at football style?
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Here is how ChONGS sees KSU finishing up the year:
(https://i.imgur.com/rQJIRg9.png)
are you able to determine why baylor and wvu kick our ass right after we endure nailbiters vs okst and texas? is it a "styles make fights" type deal, and chongs thinks kleiman sucks crap against teams that employ the bad at football style?
I think he gives a ton of weight to home field advantage
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Home field only gives about 3 points.
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Although I am checking that my training data isn't biased incorrectly (which it might be).
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Home field only gives about 3 points.
would that make us -3 or -6 at home vs. WVU?
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-3 at home, -6 at neutral
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Soooooo
I was very suspicious of that predicted run of WV wins and I found a mistake in my projections (wrong games were getting played). I also realized that my training data wasn't taking into account home field advantage in the way I thought I was, so I also corrected that.
This looks more reasonable (to me anyway):
(https://i.imgur.com/rPH0s0N.png)
Big 12 projections:
(https://i.imgur.com/zmmyJ8L.png)
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And here are the adjusted pix for week 8:
(https://i.imgur.com/Ez2M1KK.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/3cbxtdP.png)
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-3 at home, -6 at neutral
So home field is worth 6 points to the spread. Seems high but maybe the data backs that up over time
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Predicting a barn burner in Fort Worth on Saturday night on FS1! Hopefully Klandy man can somehow stop TLBR’s offensive Juggernaught.
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7-2 and a Dr. Pepper appearance. Can we just sign up for that now and not play the rest of the games?
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chongs, can you believe the spread for syracuse @ clemson? did syracuse lose their qb or something?
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chongs, can you believe the spread for syracuse @ clemson? did syracuse lose their qb or something?
I mean I get it. It's been a very long time since anyone has had to take Syracuse seriously and Clemson is still Clemson.
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Why does ChONGS have KU defeating Ok. State?
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It will be devastating if we go 4-2 over this next stretch and don’t make it to Arlington.
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Why does ChONGS have KU defeating Ok. State?
OSU has looked good, not great. They seem similar to KU to me.
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It will be devastating if we go 4-2 over this next stretch and don’t make it to Arlington.
If we win the rest of our home contests I think that it would be impossible to not be in the Dr Pepper. We should do that.
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Soooooo
I was very suspicious of that predicted run of WV wins and I found a mistake in my projections (wrong games were getting played). I also realized that my training data wasn't taking into account home field advantage in the way I thought I was, so I also corrected that.
This looks more reasonable (to me anyway):
(https://i.imgur.com/rPH0s0N.png)
Big 12 projections:
(https://i.imgur.com/zmmyJ8L.png)
I like this version much better
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ChONGS has no respect for OSU,
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I also have no respect for OSU. OU will finish ahead of them.
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I also have no respect for OSU. OU will finish ahead of them.
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/NiftyInfantileDormouse-size_restricted.gif)
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Soooooo
I was very suspicious of that predicted run of WV wins and I found a mistake in my projections (wrong games were getting played). I also realized that my training data wasn't taking into account home field advantage in the way I thought I was, so I also corrected that.
This looks more reasonable (to me anyway):
(https://i.imgur.com/rPH0s0N.png)
Big 12 projections:
(https://i.imgur.com/zmmyJ8L.png)
I like this version much better
yeah, this meaningless data (no offense Chongs) makes me feel a lot better too.
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Can we make some tweeks to ChONGS so that if favors the cats more?
Thanks CHONGS. I much prefer ChONGS when it predicts more Cats' wins :thumbsup:
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ChONGS has no respect for OSU,
ChONGS might be one of the only computer ranking systems with a built in seismograph, bc it has its ear to the ground and is feeling those rumblings that sanders might be out on Saturday
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We talkin tremors itt?
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(https://img1.yeggi.com/page_images_cache/4059838_tremors-graboid-by-xenomorph636)
you could definitely say that
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I don't want the opinion of anyone on cats football who hasn't seen all 7 Tremor movies.
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Week 9
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/2OfdNVZ.png)
Cats fall 5 spots to #16. LSU is the biggest mover jumping 10 spots. Kansas is hanging on at #25.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/3PaSkb3.png)
K-State really had a good shot to cement its place at the top, but now it will have to fight it out with the rest of the pack for the second spot in the conference championship game. Only Iowa State has a less efficient offense right now, and there should be some concern that our defense will not be able to hold up as well as it has. We've been fortunate so far to have faced 3 of the four worst offenses in the league (#10, #8, and #7), but on the plus side we likely won't face another offense as potent as TCU in the reg season.
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Week 9 pix
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KSU Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/43CqB3R.png)
Two similar teams in terms of offense and defense...I do note that Oklahoma State has had a bit more "luck" this year (i.e. their actual winning percentage is a bit higher than the projected one) so an optimist (or a fool) might take solace that they are due to trip up soon.
A win here is pretty critical IMO, the Cat's will no longer control their own destiny if they lose.
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/VBAHTpj.png)
ChONGS just doesn't like the matchup for KSU (and as we will see later, ChONGS sees the inefficient offense as something that is going drag this team down --- in fact, team with bad offenses are getting dinged pretty hard by ChONGS this year, worse that an equivalently bad defense).
But, it's still thinking its close and maybe we pull this crap out.
All pix:
(https://i.imgur.com/SsAFGMr.png)
That Nubb predicto is interesting, and that UCLA spread looks interesting as well.
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Projections (as of week 8 stats):
KSU:
(https://i.imgur.com/YoKZzlA.png)
:frown: Now ChONGS has us losing out and even missing a bowl berth, which would be tremendously painful and disappointing. I really really hope this is just wrong.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/TnXjC8S.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/7O4P61o.png)
TCU vs Oklahoma State for the champ game.
Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/QdpSrv1.png)
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ChONGS, more like WRONGS, at least I hope so..... :runaway: :frown:
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If you did percentages I bet it would have us winning one more
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Man, KU hardest game left on the schedule.
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That Nebraska prediction is hilarious, no way in hell. The UCLA one is fine, they'll win by 3+ TDs.
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Man, KU hardest game left on the schedule.
at home no less!
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As of today, is ChONGS predicting a 7-2 conference finish and Dr. Pepper appearance?
Alas, sadly it is not. Here comes a splash of cold water (well projected water).
Here is how ChONGS sees KSU finishing up the year:
(https://i.imgur.com/rQJIRg9.png)
A string of brutal losses there pushes the Cats out of contention and makes the Sunflower Showdown a game for bowl eligibility. I really really hope this isn't how it ends up.
Nailed the first one
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If you did percentages I bet it would have us winning one more
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/Vp3Ln.png)
Yes, the expectation value for wins left is 2.
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/GzneC.png)
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LOL, vs KU in a death match to see who gets to go to a bowl game.
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LOL, vs KU in a death match to see who gets to go to a bowl game.
If we can’t beat WVU it might be time for a regime change
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If you did percentages I bet it would have us winning one more
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/Vp3Ln.png)
Yes, the expectation value for wins left is 2.
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/GzneC.png)
so more as less just as likely to win 4 as 0. wow!
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:impatient: :impatient: (ftp://:impatient: :impatient:)
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Week 10
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/09iwRxE.png)
KSU Wildcats surge ahead 8 spots to land inside the top 10 at number 8. Baylor was also a big mover jumping up 8 as well. Notre Dame gets the biggest bump with 18, Louisville jumps 12 and both find themselves back in the top 25. Not surprisingly, Oklahoma State takes the biggest tumble, falling 13 spots to 22.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/fjkzIBH.png)
KSU is in control of the 2nd place slot to the Big 12 championship game. Offensive efficiency got a nice boost (up 0.17 points in a single week), putting us 6th in the conference now (TCU, KU, WVU, Baylor, and Texas ahead of us). The defense is still stellar and best in the conference.
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Week 10 pix
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KSU Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/WyazwDE.png)
Numerically, these are two pretty similar teams. But our defense has better numbers to point of the season, and should hopefully provide the needed edge.
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/dW0fAIU.png)
Cats in a tight one. A it higher scoring than expected as well. Interesting that we're a slight underdog at home...
All games:
(https://i.imgur.com/4JuHE5C.png)
Big win at home for the 'hawks this weekend? I don't really see LSU beating Alabama, but it is a home game...If that Tenn vs UGA score is anything close to reality, that should be a very fun game to watch..
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Projections (as of week 9 stats)
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KSU:
(https://i.imgur.com/ARBfNiV.png)
I am sure we would all be disappointed going 2 and 2 down the stretch, but those are close losses on the road. The rest of our games are seen as coin flips essentially.
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/VGdLH.png)
Winning out is about 5% and losing out is about 7%.
But the positive side is that even with 3 conference losses, ChONGS still puts us in the Big 12 championship game:
(https://i.imgur.com/pByg18k.png)
Yeesh, if ISU goes 0-fer...
Projected Big 12 final ChONGS ranking:
(https://i.imgur.com/IUY9Emi.png)
Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/wBp5qR5.png)
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This is pretty damn impressive. Is this something you actually created yourself?
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WVU is now our hardest remaining game? I think your crap is broken dude.
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Yeah I'll probably be pretty upset if Cats beat Texas next week then drop two in a row to WVU and Baylor. I know it's realistic to lose to one of them, but that would be pant shitting territory.
Sent from my SM-S906U1 using Tapatalk
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Yeah I'll probably be pretty upset if Cats beat Texas next week then drop two in a row to WVU and Baylor. I know it's realistic to lose to one of them, but that would be pant shitting territory.
Sent from my SM-S906U1 using Tapatalk
If we play at our average level, I don’t see us losing both.
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If the Cats win Saturday, they aren't losing again.
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Tulsa huh? ChONGS has come through on the bold predictos before...
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Tulsa huh? ChONGS has come through on the bold predictos before...
As much as we're all #1wave, I also think Tulsa gets them this week
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#95 tulsa sucks big time. only wins are an FCS school, and the schools ranked 117 and 124 out of 131. they have lost to #65 wyoming, #53 smu, and freaking #109 navy. they are 7.5 pt underdogs to #19 Tulane and snowbrag has this more like 38-22.
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chongs what's the deal with baylor? snowbrag has them with the #39 offense, #35 defense, #91 SOS. how'd they get to #9 in the ChONGS?
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#95 tulsa sucks big time. only wins are an FCS school, and the schools ranked 117 and 124 out of 131. they have lost to #65 wyoming, #53 smu, and freaking #109 navy. they are 7.5 pt underdogs to #19 Tulane and snowbrag has this more like 38-22.
Teams like Tulane are what they are because they don't have the depth and extreme talent disparity to win games like this week after week, particularly going on the road. Their last 4 games are insane and I'll be shocked if they don't lose at least 2 of them.
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If the Cats win Saturday, they aren't losing again.
I'd like to feel that way but ATM I actually have a weird feeling about @WVU. I think the team knows that beating Texas and Baylor and KU are paramount but the WVU just sticks out as a weird ass game.
Love to finish 10-2, and they're definitely capable, just seems a tad unlikely right now
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I have it in my head that we're losing 2 but hopefully we'll have the right tie breakers
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IF they pull off the win on Saturday, I see the game in Morgantown being close in the 1st half with the Cats pulling away in the second half due to the defense taking over.
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ole miss is winning out but is finishing 16th? am reading the top 25 projections correctly?
SEC= Ole Miss v GA
Bi1G= OSU v Ill
Big12= TCU v KSU
ACC = Clem v UNC
Pac = USC v ORE
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If we end up facing TCU in the Pepper, their last game before the champ game is ISU. If they get the crap beat out of them in that game like we did, it is entirely possible we could be facing a squad at less than 100%.
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If we end up facing TCU in the Pepper, their last game before the champ game is ISU. If they get the crap beat out of them in that game like we did, it is entirely possible we could be facing a squad at less than 100%.
Definitely need ol’ jaundice-face Campbell to rally the troops for a couple of wins before then. Need them to have something to play for.
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If we end up facing TCU in the Pepper, their last game before the champ game is ISU. If they get the crap beat out of them in that game like we did, it is entirely possible we could be facing a squad at less than 100%.
Definitely need ol’ jaundice-face Campbell to rally the troops for a couple of wins before then. Need them to have something to play for.
(https://media.tenor.com/spNupm_oJqwAAAAM/definitely-maybe-romance.gif)
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Week 11
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/F304lXx.png)
Big risers are Notre Dame, Kansas, and LSU. Big droppers are Clemson, Kansas State (:frown:), and Syracuse.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/TBnSJna.png)
Cats drop to the 4 spot and no longer control their own destiny. We need help to make the Big 12 title game now with either an other Texas loss or TCU to lose out.
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Week 11 pix
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KSU Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/LHd7Ep5.png)
Like last week, two pretty similar teams when it comes to efficiency. In many ways our defense, which should have been an advantage, in the first half last week cost us the game...can it save us on the road?
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/HgpYKVj.png)
Another close one...essentially a pick em.
All pix:
(https://i.imgur.com/GcRGlFj.png)
The Big 12 is full of thrillers this week.
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Projections (as of week 9 stats)
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KSU:
(https://i.imgur.com/3tyrV6g.png)
Some flips in probability and ChONGS has the Cats finishing 8-4
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/AaMTn.png)
Which is probably a bit disappointing, but also strangely OK given the parity in the conference this year.
(https://i.imgur.com/PTUwP5s.png)
Most of the disappointment will come from not making the Big 12 championship game when we has a really good shot to do so. This projects TCU vs Texas, and us finishing in 4th place (losing the tiebreaker to Baylor).
Projected top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/EeyiDH9.png)
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9 regular seasons eludes Klieman for a 4th year in a row sayeth ChONGS
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Damn. I really want to go to a Dr. Pepper
Got to win out now.
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9 regular seasons eludes Klieman for a 4th year in a row sayeth ChONGS
I can't find my regular season over/under bet with @Winters I don't know if the O/U was 7.5 or 8
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9 regular seasons eludes Klieman for a 4th year in a row sayeth ChONGS
I can't find my regular season over/under bet with @Winters I don't know if the O/U was 7.5 or 8
What was the Vegas o/u for cats? I was thinking 6.5 maybe. Seemed like an easy bet pre season but might get uncomfortably close.
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9 regular seasons eludes Klieman for a 4th year in a row sayeth ChONGS
I can't find my regular season over/under bet with @Winters I don't know if the O/U was 7.5 or 8
What was the Vegas o/u for cats? I was thinking 6.5 maybe. Seemed like an easy bet pre season but might get uncomfortably close.
That was the Vegas O/U but our bet was not that because I thought we would win 8 and winters thought 9 or 10
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9 regular seasons eludes Klieman for a 4th year in a row sayeth ChONGS
I can't find my regular season over/under bet with @Winters I don't know if the O/U was 7.5 or 8
What was the Vegas o/u for cats? I was thinking 6.5 maybe. Seemed like an easy bet pre season but might get uncomfortably close.
I've got a ticket at MGM for over 7.
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chongs, you've got KU winning a close one at texas tech this weekend (32-31), but then in each team's season outlook, it looks like that result has been flipped.
i was checking to see where you had this game because i was surprised to see tech favored by 3.5
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Week 12
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/JIgkxrm.png)
Cats rocket back into the top 10! Penn State and Clemson also make some big moves up. On the other side, Baylor and Illinois both tumble.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/9YZh47n.png)
KSU is back to controlling it's own destiny. Win out at the Big 12 championship is ours. The offense is looking much better and is now the 4th best in the conference.
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Week 12 pix
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KSU Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/9nkS5xN.png)
On computer paper we should win, but games in Morgantown can be weird. Let's hope the defense can keep travelling and contain WVU's new QB.
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/SdXn6ss.png)
A solid win, but not a comfortable one.
All pix:
(https://i.imgur.com/iV5H6jW.png)
Pac-12 with some tasty treats this week. Kansas is being given a lot of points..I think KU has very good chance here.
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Does ChONGS factor in the season ending injury for Kobe Savage?
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I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas. Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has. I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.
Hopefully Texas phones it in.
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Projections (as of week 11 stats)
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KSU:
(https://i.imgur.com/MvNsszD.png)
Winning out would be nice. We have a really good chance to 9-3 and even maybe get to double digit wins for the first time in a decade.
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/CChvK.png)
Rest of the Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/MRAzLUe.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/nzcqEi8.png)
Top 25 (before champ games):
(https://i.imgur.com/bXbRvMO.png)
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Does ChONGS factor in the season ending injury for Kobe Savage?
Nope
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These plots seem all the rage right now so I made a ChONGS version:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/2dAQO.png)
The dashed lines are "expected win %".
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KSU and LSU two peas in a pod
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I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas. Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has. I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.
Hopefully Texas phones it in.
Unfortunately, these are my thoughts as well. Texas can still make the Pepper, yes? I don't think we'll catch them sleeping. Our only hope is to force a bunch of turnovers and hope the cold bothers them (should be hovering around freezing).
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I believe Texas needs both KSU and OSU to drop one in order to have a shot. I doubt they’re particularly motivated by title aspirations at this point, but obviously they still want a nice record and bowl game.
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I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas. Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has. I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.
Hopefully Texas phones it in.
Unfortunately, these are my thoughts as well. Texas can still make the Pepper, yes? I don't think we'll catch them sleeping. Our only hope is to force a bunch of turnovers and hope the cold bothers them (should be hovering around freezing).
Yea UT could win out and KSU go 1-1 and own the tie breaker.
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Is this week KSU’s highest ever Chong rating?
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I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas. Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has. I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.
Hopefully Texas phones it in.
Unfortunately, these are my thoughts as well. Texas can still make the Pepper, yes? I don't think we'll catch them sleeping. Our only hope is to force a bunch of turnovers and hope the cold bothers them (should be hovering around freezing).
Yea UT could win out and KSU go 1-1 and own the tie breaker.
If Oklahoma State also wins out it would be a three way tie that goes to point differential in the games in which the 3 teams played against each other, K-State obviously has that locked up.
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Week 13
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/SQk0UEx.png)
LSU is the big mover this week. Cats stay pat.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/Iv7PapV.png)
KSU now has a higher winp than TCU. Texas has to be kicking themselves for that Tech loss.
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Week 13 pix
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KSU Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/Rwl6waY.png)
The Sunflower Showdown: After Dark Edition. KU's offense is still nothing to be laughed at, but that defense of theirs should be ripe for us to take advantage of. A few turnovers and this could snowball into a big Cat win.
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/2jXfxXA.png)
Looks like ChONGS thinks Vegas has this about right.
All pix:
(https://i.imgur.com/9yqtSrb.png)
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amazing that ChONGS has a team in the top 30 that isn't even bowl eligible. this is like KP30no30 level achievement. ISU might be the unluckiest charlie browns ever.
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I’ve always said ChONGS is the best ranking system around.
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amazing that ChONGS has a team in the top 30 that isn't even bowl eligible. this is like KP30no30 level achievement. ISU might be the unluckiest charlie browns ever.
Their composite is wild, highest ranking is 19, lowest is 99. Pretty unreal to have that much variance.
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"Unluckiest" teams:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/wzVw0.png)
"Luckiest" teams:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/O4Ga9.png)
Based on off and def efficiencies, Iowa State *should* be fifth in the conference.
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Week 14
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Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/bQrT0fZ.png)
Unlike some other horribly weak and biased ranking systems, this glorious system has the Cats sitting pretty at No 7.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/boWXkQq.png)
The Big 12 ended up divided into three tiers. West Virginia gets the prize as the lowest ranked team, but just barely....
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I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas. Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has. I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.
Hopefully Texas phones it in.
Really nice work by me here. Bijan had about 225 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd. Could've moonwalked to 300.
In hindsight (and save for the second half against TCU), KU had been leaking oil since after the Duke game.
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Champ Week Pix (this year featuring your Kansas State Wildcats)
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Big 12 Championship Game Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/HROwHZh.png)
Two very evenly matched teams, with the Cats being the slightly stronger defensive team and the Frogs a better offense. But will the Frogs' luck finally run out?
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/dRwsnd4.png)
Game of the year right here. Eyeball melting excitement on Saturday afternoon.
All Championship Games:
(https://i.imgur.com/F4kVPeV.png)
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Assuming the ChONGS pix, here how the season wraps up before the Bowls and Playoffs:
Projected Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/lHxLnDo.png)
A 4 vs 5 Sugar Bowl anybody?
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(https://i.stack.imgur.com/uz3p2.png)
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An overview
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ChONGS ranks by conference:
(https://i.imgur.com/NEXmFcZ.png)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency by conference:
(https://i.imgur.com/xC46E5W.png)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency by conference:
(https://i.imgur.com/gtyDWLf.png)
(A more negative number is better)
KSU is the bold highlighted rectangle.
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Amazing relative parity for the Big 12. Even with WVU coming in last they definitely didn't suck (that much).
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ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/dRwsnd4.png)
YES ChONGS! :excited:
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What does the model say the score is in a Bama vs Cats Sugar Bowl?
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does CHONGS think that alabama’s offense is basically what ku’s would be if ku had better players?
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9 regular seasons eludes Klieman for a 4th year in a row sayeth ChONGS
I can't find my regular season over/under bet with @Winters I don't know if the O/U was 7.5 or 8
Winner Winner :Woohoo: @MakeItRain
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9 regular seasons eludes Klieman for a 4th year in a row sayeth ChONGS
I can't find my regular season over/under bet with @Winters I don't know if the O/U was 7.5 or 8
Winner Winner :Woohoo: @MakeItRain
Get me that Venmo, cash app, or PayPal so I can get you your hundo
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Champ Week Pix (this year featuring your Kansas State Wildcats)
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Big 12 Championship Game Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/HROwHZh.png)
Two very evenly matched teams, with the Cats being the slightly stronger defensive team and the Frogs a better offense. But will the Frogs' luck finally run out?
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/dRwsnd4.png)
Game of the year right here. Eyeball melting excitement on Saturday afternoon.
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My goodness. Is ChOngs A.I.? Is it benevolent?
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KSU vs Bama ChONGS says what?!
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Champ Week Pix (this year featuring your Kansas State Wildcats)
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Big 12 Championship Game Matchup:
(https://i.imgur.com/HROwHZh.png)
Two very evenly matched teams, with the Cats being the slightly stronger defensive team and the Frogs a better offense. But will the Frogs' luck finally run out?
ChONGS KSU pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/dRwsnd4.png)
Game of the year right here. Eyeball melting excitement on Saturday afternoon.
Yoooooo
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Post Champ Week
===================
Top 25:
(https://i.imgur.com/L7pc9Nn.png)
Cats move up a spot to #6. ChONGS nails the playoff selections.
Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/ydSyjcr.png)
As poorly ad our offense started the year, we ended up with the third best offense in the conference. Defense ended up second. Being top three in offense and defense is a great recipe for getting to the conference championship game so you have a chance to win it.
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Bowl Pix
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Sugar Bowl Matchup
(https://i.imgur.com/jYfxXQy.png)
#5 vs #6.
Make no mistake, Alabama is a good team, they ended up with the fourth highest winp (after a three-way tie for first). But who knows who will suit up for them on NYE....
ChONGS Sugar Bowl Pick:
(https://i.imgur.com/OiURRga.png)
Of course ChONGS assumes Alabama will be playing with its normal roster, which all indications say will not be the case. I honestly was surprised by the 5 point spread and assume that Vegas thinks a lot of players will be out.
All bowls:
(https://i.imgur.com/ZqUBH1L.png)
ChONGS is predicting a lot of chalk, but a lot of close games... I am quite sure that won't be the case. It does like the squawks.
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We probably are going to be without FAU and I would guess Brents is probably a wildcard
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it's up to alabama -6 now
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We probably are going to be without FAU and I would guess Brents is probably a wildcard
Yeah a lot of people talking about who at Bama will be sitting but I’d definitely like to hear more about who the Cats are bringing.
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We probably are going to be without FAU and I would guess Brents is probably a wildcard
probably?
Last year there were 55 opt-outs, only 6 opt-outs from NY6 games and 4 of those were from Ohio State.
There were a lot of opt-outs who either didn't get drafted or got drafted in rounds 6-7.
I think Felix has a lot to gain by playing against Alabama's line. The might not even start the game by doubling him.
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Just here, waiting patiently…