Author Topic: ChONGS  (Read 7392 times)

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Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #125 on: November 14, 2022, 11:19:43 AM »
Does ChONGS factor in the season ending injury for Kobe Savage?
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline DQ12

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #126 on: November 14, 2022, 11:21:20 AM »
I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas.  Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has.  I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.

Hopefully Texas phones it in.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #127 on: November 14, 2022, 11:24:35 AM »
Projections (as of week 11 stats)
-----------------------------------
KSU:

Winning out would be nice.  We have a really good chance to 9-3 and even maybe get to double digit wins for the first time in a decade.


Rest of the Big 12:




Top 25 (before champ games):

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #128 on: November 14, 2022, 11:25:41 AM »
Does ChONGS factor in the season ending injury for Kobe Savage?
Nope

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #129 on: November 14, 2022, 11:27:17 AM »
These plots seem all the rage right now so I made a ChONGS version:



The dashed lines are "expected win %".


Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #130 on: November 14, 2022, 11:32:40 AM »
KSU and LSU two peas in a pod
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Offline Spracne

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #131 on: November 14, 2022, 11:51:06 AM »
I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas.  Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has.  I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.

Hopefully Texas phones it in.

Unfortunately, these are my thoughts as well. Texas can still make the Pepper, yes? I don't think we'll catch them sleeping. Our only hope is to force a bunch of turnovers and hope the cold bothers them (should be hovering around freezing).

Offline catastrophe

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #132 on: November 14, 2022, 12:58:31 PM »
I believe Texas needs both KSU and OSU to drop one in order to have a shot. I doubt they’re particularly motivated by title aspirations at this point, but obviously they still want a nice record and bowl game.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #133 on: November 14, 2022, 01:22:54 PM »
I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas.  Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has.  I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.

Hopefully Texas phones it in.

Unfortunately, these are my thoughts as well. Texas can still make the Pepper, yes? I don't think we'll catch them sleeping. Our only hope is to force a bunch of turnovers and hope the cold bothers them (should be hovering around freezing).

Yea UT could win out and KSU go 1-1 and own the tie breaker.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline Pete

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #134 on: November 14, 2022, 02:33:59 PM »
Is this week KSU’s highest ever Chong rating?

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #135 on: November 14, 2022, 07:05:21 PM »
I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas.  Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has.  I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.

Hopefully Texas phones it in.

Unfortunately, these are my thoughts as well. Texas can still make the Pepper, yes? I don't think we'll catch them sleeping. Our only hope is to force a bunch of turnovers and hope the cold bothers them (should be hovering around freezing).

Yea UT could win out and KSU go 1-1 and own the tie breaker.

If Oklahoma State also wins out it would be a three way tie that goes to point differential in the games in which the 3 teams played against each other, K-State obviously has that locked up.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #136 on: November 21, 2022, 09:48:08 AM »
Week 13
---------
Top 25:

LSU is the big mover this week. Cats stay pat.

Big 12:

KSU now has a higher winp than TCU.  Texas has to be kicking themselves for that Tech loss.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #137 on: November 21, 2022, 09:52:42 AM »
Week 13 pix
-------------

KSU Matchup:


The Sunflower Showdown: After Dark Edition. KU's offense is still nothing to be laughed at, but that defense of theirs should be ripe for us to take advantage of.  A few turnovers and this could snowball into a big Cat win.

ChONGS KSU pick:

Looks like ChONGS thinks Vegas has this about right.

All pix:


Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #138 on: November 21, 2022, 10:03:44 AM »
amazing that ChONGS has a team in the top 30 that isn't even bowl eligible. this is like KP30no30 level achievement. ISU might be the unluckiest charlie browns ever.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #139 on: November 21, 2022, 10:09:17 AM »
I’ve always said ChONGS is the best ranking system around.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #140 on: November 21, 2022, 10:29:17 AM »
amazing that ChONGS has a team in the top 30 that isn't even bowl eligible. this is like KP30no30 level achievement. ISU might be the unluckiest charlie browns ever.

Their composite is wild, highest ranking is 19, lowest is 99. Pretty unreal to have that much variance.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #141 on: November 21, 2022, 10:36:05 AM »
"Unluckiest" teams:


"Luckiest" teams:


Based on off and def efficiencies, Iowa State *should* be fifth in the conference.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #142 on: November 28, 2022, 04:05:30 PM »
Week 14
----------------------
Top 25:

Unlike some other horribly weak and biased ranking systems, this glorious system has the Cats sitting pretty at No 7.

Big 12:

The Big 12 ended up divided into three tiers.  West Virginia gets the prize as the lowest ranked team, but just barely....

Offline DQ12

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #143 on: November 28, 2022, 04:17:37 PM »
I hope they win, but I think UT is a really tough matchup for Kansas.  Think UT's run defense has the athletes to match-up and keep Neal in check (most important thing) and cover all the circus crap Kansas's offense has.  I think Bijan may run for 300 yards on Kansas's hapless defense.

Hopefully Texas phones it in.
Really nice work by me here.  Bijan had about 225 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd.  Could've moonwalked to 300.

In hindsight (and save for the second half against TCU), KU had been leaking oil since after the Duke game. 


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #144 on: November 28, 2022, 04:26:06 PM »
Champ Week Pix (this year featuring your Kansas State Wildcats)
------------------

Big 12 Championship Game Matchup:

Two very evenly matched teams, with the Cats being the slightly stronger defensive team and the Frogs a better offense.  But will the Frogs' luck finally run out?

ChONGS KSU pick:

Game of the year right here.  Eyeball melting excitement on Saturday afternoon.

All Championship Games:




Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #145 on: November 28, 2022, 04:28:21 PM »
Assuming the ChONGS pix, here how the season wraps up before the Bowls and Playoffs:
Projected Top 25:


A 4 vs 5 Sugar Bowl anybody?

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #146 on: November 28, 2022, 04:34:26 PM »

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #147 on: November 28, 2022, 04:53:10 PM »
An overview
--------------

ChONGS ranks by conference:


Adjusted Offensive Efficiency by conference:


Adjusted Defensive Efficiency by conference:

(A more negative number is better)

KSU is the bold highlighted rectangle.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #148 on: November 28, 2022, 05:20:57 PM »
Amazing relative parity for the Big 12. Even with WVU coming in last they definitely didn't suck (that much).
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Offline Spaces

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Re: ChONGS
« Reply #149 on: November 28, 2022, 06:04:30 PM »