Author Topic: Possible WW3 thread  (Read 240399 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online star seed 7

  • hyperactive on the :lol:
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 64277
  • good dog
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1850 on: March 23, 2022, 12:18:52 PM »
Hmm, yeah. I took mocat at his word but maybe he's fake news?
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 8763
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1851 on: March 23, 2022, 12:23:45 PM »
Ukraine have some success in their counteroffensives around the Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1506660525106778120?s=20&t=krXjAUSZSjjO8c1pVgXjvw

Offline LickNeckey

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 6088
  • #fakeposts
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1852 on: March 23, 2022, 12:32:19 PM »
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/frostbite/#:~:text=Frostbite%20is%20damage%20to%20skin,most%20likely%20to%20be%20affected.

Frostbite is damage to skin and tissue caused by exposure to freezing temperatures – typically any temperature below -0.55C (31F).

-anyone who works outdoors in harsh conditions for long periods of time, such as soldiers, sailors and rescue workers


Offline wetwillie

  • goEMAW Poster of the WEEK
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 30578
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1853 on: March 23, 2022, 12:41:42 PM »
Russian army hasn’t exactly been nails but feel pretty confident they have enough gloves and coats to stave off the ole frostbite
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline Brock Landers

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 7095
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1854 on: March 23, 2022, 12:45:06 PM »
When you're having a bad day at work every little thing always seems way worse than it is.  If it was warm they'd be complaining about heatstroke or some other nonsense.

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53649
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1855 on: March 23, 2022, 12:48:47 PM »
Then again, there is always the comfort that an odd man in Alabama USA will have your back forever, so it's not all terrible.

Another very weird take from resident hard line #neoconGe member StarBot.7


Offline LickNeckey

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 6088
  • #fakeposts
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1856 on: March 23, 2022, 12:50:07 PM »
Russian army hasn’t exactly been nails but feel pretty confident they have enough gloves and coats to stave off the ole frostbite

maybe

they didn't have food

so...

Offline catastrophe

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 15268
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1857 on: March 23, 2022, 12:51:44 PM »
When you're having a bad day at work every little thing always seems way worse than it is.  If it was warm they'd be complaining about heatstroke or some other nonsense.
So true

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37159
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1858 on: March 23, 2022, 01:09:16 PM »
Russian army hasn’t exactly been nails but feel pretty confident they have enough gloves and coats to stave off the ole frostbite

Maybe. The Russian army seems to be pretty maga, though. They might be pissing their pants like the maga truckers and then freezing their dicks off with frostbite.

Online sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40564
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1859 on: March 23, 2022, 01:49:07 PM »
Ukraine have some success in their counteroffensives around the Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1506660525106778120?s=20&t=krXjAUSZSjjO8c1pVgXjvw

yeah, i didn't really understand katkid's assertion that a russian victory was inevitable, but kinda just assumed it was mostly a definition of victory thing.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20529
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1860 on: March 23, 2022, 02:05:28 PM »
tl;dr I don't think Ukraine can defeat Russia militarily and that this will be a continuously deteriorating situation for people in Ukraine

I have been very wrong and so am trying to be humble, but I find it difficult to believe that Russia will just give up without achieving their objectives. I believe skipping the killing and destruction and getting to the negotiating table would be a better route, but Zelensky keeps appealing for other countries to send more weapons and for a no-fly zone and other escalations that I think would be a disaster for everyone including Ukraine. It isn't really for me to say if Zelensky is right to want to have some "no surrender" stance, and obviously that is a decent bluff to bring to the negotiating table but I think this is delaying the inevitable. I just do not see Ukraine defeating Russia militarily, they can definitely make Russia occupying Ukraine awful but that is not the same thing as pushing Russia back across their border.


Offline catastrophe

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 15268
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1861 on: March 23, 2022, 02:17:19 PM »
I agree it comes down to the definition of “victory.” Pretty much no one (in the US) says we were “defeated” in Vietnam, but we sure as hell didn’t win anything. Even countries with tremendous military advantages can end up just leaving out to save further loss and embarrassment.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37159
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1862 on: March 23, 2022, 03:19:39 PM »

Offline kim carnes

  • chingon!
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 13592
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1863 on: March 23, 2022, 04:23:23 PM »
tl;dr I don't think Ukraine can defeat Russia militarily and that this will be a continuously deteriorating situation for people in Ukraine

I have been very wrong and so am trying to be humble, but I find it difficult to believe that Russia will just give up without achieving their objectives. I believe skipping the killing and destruction and getting to the negotiating table would be a better route, but Zelensky keeps appealing for other countries to send more weapons and for a no-fly zone and other escalations that I think would be a disaster for everyone including Ukraine. It isn't really for me to say if Zelensky is right to want to have some "no surrender" stance, and obviously that is a decent bluff to bring to the negotiating table but I think this is delaying the inevitable. I just do not see Ukraine defeating Russia militarily, they can definitely make Russia occupying Ukraine awful but that is not the same thing as pushing Russia back across their border.

I don’t think they’re willing to negotiate in good faith

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 8763
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1864 on: March 23, 2022, 04:39:55 PM »
tl;dr I don't think Ukraine can defeat Russia militarily and that this will be a continuously deteriorating situation for people in Ukraine

I have been very wrong and so am trying to be humble, but I find it difficult to believe that Russia will just give up without achieving their objectives. I believe skipping the killing and destruction and getting to the negotiating table would be a better route, but Zelensky keeps appealing for other countries to send more weapons and for a no-fly zone and other escalations that I think would be a disaster for everyone including Ukraine. It isn't really for me to say if Zelensky is right to want to have some "no surrender" stance, and obviously that is a decent bluff to bring to the negotiating table but I think this is delaying the inevitable. I just do not see Ukraine defeating Russia militarily, they can definitely make Russia occupying Ukraine awful but that is not the same thing as pushing Russia back across their border.

I don’t think they’re willing to negotiate in good faith
not gE'ing here. I haven't heard the Russsians offer any terms other than "give us all the stuff we were demanding before we started the war." Seems like a total capitulation. I'm afraid Ukraine will have to surrender some territory to end this but they should have guarantees that the Russians won't be allowed to eff around in their remaining territory or foment low intensity war on Ukraine's border regions like they've been doing over the past 8 years.

Online sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40564
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1865 on: March 23, 2022, 04:55:22 PM »
i've seen some people that seem pretty sober-minded with expertise in the field say that they already think that it will be impossible for russia to accomplish their pre-invasion goals.

with the caveat that those people could be wrong, and also that unforeseeable future events might alter the calculus even if their assessment makes sense now, at what point russia decides to give up the effort does not seem like a good determinant of whether they won or not.


i'd also add that this effort seems to me categorically different from some of the obvious parallels (us-vietnam, ussr-afghanistan, us-iraq, us-afghanistan) in that in those conflicts the larger power had unquestioned military superiority but didn't have the ability to accomplish the political goals for which they decided to use their militaries.  in the current conflict, russia has not demonstrated that they can achieve military superiority.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53649
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1866 on: March 23, 2022, 06:18:52 PM »
https://twitter.com/bershidsky/status/1506329273262563328?s=21

Putin should retreat and avoid further suffering, he is only delaying the inevitable at this point.

Duh, everyone in the entire world knows this is true.

Well thanks, Pete.  The real issue being is that this administration is not the least bit interested in peace, and #blueanonNeoCon (and #neoconGe) are more than happy to see Ukrainians (even their beloved Ukrainian Ultra Nationalists and Nazi's) put into the meat grinder.   

« Last Edit: March 23, 2022, 06:27:45 PM by sonofdaxjones »

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20529
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1867 on: March 23, 2022, 07:07:11 PM »
i've seen some people that seem pretty sober-minded with expertise in the field say that they already think that it will be impossible for russia to accomplish their pre-invasion goals.

with the caveat that those people could be wrong, and also that unforeseeable future events might alter the calculus even if their assessment makes sense now, at what point russia decides to give up the effort does not seem like a good determinant of whether they won or not.


i'd also add that this effort seems to me categorically different from some of the obvious parallels (us-vietnam, ussr-afghanistan, us-iraq, us-afghanistan) in that in those conflicts the larger power had unquestioned military superiority but didn't have the ability to accomplish the political goals for which they decided to use their militaries.  in the current conflict, russia has not demonstrated that they can achieve military superiority.
I definitely should not have said “all of their objectives” but there is zero doubt in my mind that Russia’s red lines of-
1) neutrality
2) territorial concessions

Will either be met or Russia will continue to fight.

I think it is wrong to say that Russia does not have military superiority, they definitely misjudged the situation and Ukraine definitely punched above its weight, but Ukraine is hanging on and Russia continues to take more territory.  Ukraine had a smart strategy to retreat to kyiv, but it appears the eastern front and southern front are not getting hammered.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Offline sonofdaxjones

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 53649
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1868 on: March 24, 2022, 01:34:35 AM »
Love when #neoconGe talks strategy.   Good work guys!   :thumbsup:

You guys pivoted from being Russia-Trump conspiracy true believers and Covid experts to Geo-strategic military strategists with zeal.

Fantastic


Offline Cire

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19870
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1869 on: March 24, 2022, 05:40:19 AM »

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 8763
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1870 on: March 24, 2022, 07:34:16 AM »
That was a fascinating thread

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 8763
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1871 on: March 24, 2022, 07:41:28 AM »
Country without a navy destroys one Russian ship and badly damages another:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506894695254876163?s=20&t=DDztqSvy7w149YHdkK5r7Q

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20529
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1872 on: March 24, 2022, 08:51:33 AM »
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/the-lefts-bad-takes-on-ukraine.html

I'm not going to do a complete takedown of Levitz awful article, but here are some key points:

1) the DSA IC that sys referenced earlier said that NATO expansion has been bad and that NATO has been a key point of provocation for Russia and that it no longer serves a useful purpose. I think given Poland's increasing push toward direct conflict with Russia over the Ukraine invasion that is just obviously true even if nothing comes of it. NATO is supposed to be a mutual defense organization with an Article V trigger of mutual defense (war) for an attack on any member. If that ever made sense, it makes very little sense for the US now to be dragged in to a potential World War because it is suddenly in Poland and Estonia's interest to get on war footing with nuclear armed Russia.

https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/agresja-rosji-tajny-projekt-misji-pokojowej-w-ukrainie-rozdzwiek-na-linii-mon-palac/9bdp2zg,79cfc278?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Quote
Meanwhile, the notion that Russia’s opposition to NATO expansion was rooted in its “legitimate security interests” — as a segment of leftists routinely avow — is hard to credit. Surely, a nation’s only legitimate security interests are defensive ones. And Russia’s nuclear arsenal was always sufficient to deter the threat of an invasion (as we are now seeing, that arsenal is menacing enough to stop Western leaders from entertaining so much as a no-fly zone for Ukraine, never mind an offensive invasion of Russian territory).

Levitz's point is hilarious because if we imagine Mexico aligning in a mutual defense pact with Xi, placing missiles, training the Mexican military and placing offensive nuclear weapons there, imagine what the US would do. (I know Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons, but Turkey does and it is nearly the same distance from Mexico City to DC as Turkey to Moscow)

2) The second global point that he tries to make is that leftists are not making moral cases, only realist ones. Well, I think we really have to look at what has a better track record of explaining what has happened. I think there are all sorts of moral cases to be made for the right to self-determination but looking at the history of Cuba it is undoubtedly true that great power politics explains their situation much more clearly than some moral case. And the parallels are worth considering. It is NOT a justification for the US OR Putin's actions! But it is the only way to see what is going on.

The last part Levitz says:

"Socialists forfeit all hope of persuading anyone outside their esoteric circles if they call for choking off military aid to Ukraine and demand a “mutually agreeable diplomatic resolution” to the conflict without (1) addressing the obvious objection that Ukraine can only hope to secure such a settlement through force of arms; (2) offering an evidence-based theory for how Russia can be persuaded to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity through sheer diplomacy; or (3) explaining why the left would oppose sending arms to a democratic government struggling against domination by a far-right autocracy, given its historic support for arming the Second Spanish Republic and the Sandinista government."

1) should Russia and China have armed Sadaam to repel the US? Would that have made it easier for Iraq to secure a just resolution? Would the US have not reacted to this provocation? It is quite possible to declare that Russia/Putin's actions are criminal and unjustified and also understand that arming Ukraine is not wise.

2) I've maintained they can't, militarily or diplomatically so best to not double down on a losing fight. But even if we play this out: Does Levitz believe that Ukraine should demand the return of Crimea in negotiations? Should the US continue to pump in arms until Ukraine can re-capture? Not one inch? Not one speck of dirt? Is anyone going to argue that is in Ukraine's interest, let alone the US?

3) See 1) but also These parallels are absurd. The Sandanistas or the Spanish republic were socialists fighting fascists, not Nazis or nationalists and, say what you will, but Ukraine has banned most of the left wing opposition parties now so that makes the claim weaker on the democracy front and the left not finding sufficient solidarity with Ukraine.

I will conclude by saying, I obviously hope that this war ends soon, that Ukraine can get peace and that Russia comes out worse. I still fail to see how it is in the US or Ukraine's interest to fight a long war of attrition with Russia. The numbers just don't favor it for Ukraine.

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 8763
  • a punk who rarely ever took advice
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1873 on: March 24, 2022, 09:54:00 AM »
I keep hearing the Mexico analogy which doesn't make sense (unless we are talking 1848). Was anyone in Ukraine wanting the US / NATO to move nukes into their territory to point at Moscow? Does someone think that NATO was going to use Ukraine as a base to seize current Russian territory?

Edit: I don't see how the Russians expect anyone to take seriously their argument that an independent Ukraine poses a threat to their security unless they believe that they believe that they need to be surrounded by destabilized satellite states in order to be "secure."
« Last Edit: March 24, 2022, 09:59:29 AM by Sandstone Outcropping »

Online star seed 7

  • hyperactive on the :lol:
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 64277
  • good dog
    • View Profile
Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #1874 on: March 24, 2022, 10:03:01 AM »
I'm no intellectual, but doesn't Russia invading kind of prove that Ukraine should have been in more of a rush to get into NATO?
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite