Author Topic: Possible WW3 thread  (Read 229815 times)

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Offline sys

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3475 on: August 14, 2022, 10:41:47 AM »
ukraine war twitter is having a fun day with those long range hits.
Kind of interesting that the Ukrainians claimed it was partisans and/or Ukrainian long range missiles/drone when evidence points to it being HIMARS.

i'm not aware of any evidence that points to it being himars.  it almost certainly wasn't.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3476 on: August 14, 2022, 11:03:12 AM »
ukraine war twitter is having a fun day with those long range hits.
Kind of interesting that the Ukrainians claimed it was partisans and/or Ukrainian long range missiles/drone when evidence points to it being HIMARS.

i'm not aware of any evidence that points to it being himars.  it almost certainly wasn't.
Why do you think not?

The Ukrainians don’t have any other weapons that would be that long range and accurate I don’t think.

I know this says “other analysts believe” but I think there is probably some incentive for the US and Ukraine to deny that they are using it this way.

Obvious caveat that I don’t know any of this myself, mostly going off of John Dolan’s theory and the things he cited in this article including how he described the damage to the buildings from the satellite.


Offline steve dave

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3477 on: August 14, 2022, 04:13:46 PM »

Offline sys

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3478 on: August 16, 2022, 02:09:21 AM »
Why do you think not?

too big and too far for the gmlrs rockets and the u.s. has categorically stated that they haven't provided tacms rockets.  the united states has provided some stuff and not announced it till after it was used, but they (afaik) haven't provided anything that they've denied providing and i don't see any reason that they would burn credibility to do so in this case.

also, with previous u.s. rockets, russia has recovered fragments and released footage of them pretty much as soon as they entered use, presumably because it helps maintain domestic support for the war.  they haven't done that here.


ukraine does have the neptune missile with adequate range, and i think i've seen talk that they've been working on another long-range missile.  i've seen speculation that they may have repurposed/developed one of those to fire from an aircraft, possibly with foreign assistance in upgrading targeting accuracy, and that makes more sense to me than a weapon that both ukraine and the u.s. deny that they have.  i've also seen speculation about having used repurposed u.s. made anti-radiation harm missiles, but that also runs into the u.s. denial that u.s. made weaponry was used, and i'm also not sure they'd produce an explosion that large.

i imagine we'll find out eventually.

"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3479 on: August 16, 2022, 02:40:20 AM »
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline turnbull

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3480 on: August 16, 2022, 06:24:43 AM »
lmao

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1558924414670237696

If the Russians did this with the North Korean Army it’d be an admission that they’re losing the war, desperate, and needing a Hail Mary. Using the NK Army is the ultimate gamble when those 100k soldiers leave NK they’ll be an unknown (as in they may run and shoot at Russians being almost as likely as fighting the Ukrainians).

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3481 on: August 16, 2022, 06:43:57 AM »
Russia bringing in North Korean troops would surely be a sign of desperation but I am not excited about adding another nuclear state so I think it would be bad.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3482 on: August 16, 2022, 06:56:34 AM »
Why do you think not?

too big and too far for the gmlrs rockets and the u.s. has categorically stated that they haven't provided tacms rockets.  the united states has provided some stuff and not announced it till after it was used, but they (afaik) haven't provided anything that they've denied providing and i don't see any reason that they would burn credibility to do so in this case.

also, with previous u.s. rockets, russia has recovered fragments and released footage of them pretty much as soon as they entered use, presumably because it helps maintain domestic support for the war.  they haven't done that here.


ukraine does have the neptune missile with adequate range, and i think i've seen talk that they've been working on another long-range missile.  i've seen speculation that they may have repurposed/developed one of those to fire from an aircraft, possibly with foreign assistance in upgrading targeting accuracy, and that makes more sense to me than a weapon that both ukraine and the u.s. deny that they have.  i've also seen speculation about having used repurposed u.s. made anti-radiation harm missiles, but that also runs into the u.s. denial that u.s. made weaponry was used, and i'm also not sure they'd produce an explosion that large.

i imagine we'll find out eventually.
That all sounds reasonable. Obviously the huge information/disinformation fog makes it hard to deal with any claim but it is worth noting that the Russian denials about anything even happened might explain them not talking rockets.

Overall, the tenor of articles about the conflict have really shifted. A lot of talk about how this is a critical time for Ukraine as the vote in Kherson in September approaches.

Yesterday I read in the times 10+ paragraphs about the fight for Kherson and how the Russians were in a very difficult position there and how many troops had been lost and how much ammo had been depleted and that Russia considers casualties a state secret. It had estimates for deaths and total casualties, saying 500/day for the Russians but for Ukraine it was noticeably quiet except for the repeated number of 1-200/day from when Zelensky was appealing to the West for more weapons. 

It isn’t impossible I guess that the numbers are still that skewed from the early days when Ukraine was defending Kyiv and the Russians ran in to a buzzsaw but the longer the conflict grinds on it won’t be that skewed especially if Ukraine wants to take back territory. To do that, Ukraine will need numerical superiority or some other major breakthrough (escalation from the West) to be able to launch a serious offensive. I just don’t see it.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3483 on: August 16, 2022, 09:24:28 AM »
Fake or real? (If real - 125% to 150% cost of replacement)

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1559542897241882624?s=21&t=K8I1bhEsb2CJqGfzKGCw5g

Offline Pete

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3484 on: August 16, 2022, 09:35:24 AM »
Russia bringing in North Korean troops would surely be a sign of desperation but I am not excited about adding another nuclear state so I think it would be bad.
It’s not a nuclear state, is it?

"Just landed - a long trip, but everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office," Trump tweeted as he arrived back in Washington. "There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea."

Offline Pete

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3485 on: August 16, 2022, 09:36:54 AM »
The ENTIRE free world all agrees that North Korea is a horrible abomination of human rights violations and viscous despotic tyranny, right?

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3486 on: August 16, 2022, 09:39:45 AM »
Surely collaboration with North Korea on anything other than purely humanitarian causes is evidence to even the most cynical and hardened Russia fan that Russia and Putin are nothing more than anti-freedom autocratic forces aligned against everything America stands for, right?

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3487 on: August 16, 2022, 09:41:12 AM »
The ENTIRE free world all agrees that North Korea is a horrible abomination of human rights violations and viscous despotic tyranny, right?

Probably not. You see, the US did some bad things 50 years ago that set all of this in motion...

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3488 on: August 16, 2022, 09:42:18 AM »
But a nation that #blueanon hero and then Sen Barrack Obama stated should not be part of the axis of evil.  In fact, Sen Obama completely scoffed at the notion of an Axis of Evil.

For the #blueanon Derp - History never matters

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3489 on: August 16, 2022, 09:47:35 AM »
But a nation that #blueanon hero and then Sen Barrack Obama stated should not be part of the axis of evil.  In fact, Sen Obama completely scoffed at the notion of an Axis of Evil.

For the #blueanon Derp - History never matters
Dax you know that disputing a label of “axis of evil” and collaborating on war efforts are not the same. Come on, man. Don’t do that.

Offline Pete

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3490 on: August 16, 2022, 09:48:59 AM »
Dax, you want America to an autocracy.  Everyone knows it.  I recommend that you just own it and move on.

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3491 on: August 16, 2022, 09:52:13 AM »
Here, I will start…

I want America to be a democratic socialist state that uses our vast resources to continue to be the dominant military force in the world.  I acknowledge that this will be a departure from what the country’s founders had in mind.

Offline Tobias

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3492 on: August 16, 2022, 09:59:20 AM »

Online star seed 7

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3493 on: August 16, 2022, 10:35:58 AM »
Russia uses North Korean slave labor for lots of crap. There are slave logging camps set up all over.
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline steve dave

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3494 on: August 16, 2022, 10:39:28 AM »

Offline steve dave

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3495 on: August 16, 2022, 10:40:43 AM »
They put zip ties around the legs to hold the stockings on :lmao:


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Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3496 on: August 16, 2022, 10:45:17 AM »
They put zip ties around the legs to hold the stockings on :lmao:


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In fairness, they were hammered drunk

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3497 on: August 16, 2022, 11:13:03 AM »
Dax, you want America to an autocracy.  Everyone knows it.  I recommend that you just own it and move on.

You made fun of the Trump outreach to N. Korea.

In geo-strategic terms, I'm someone who believes that it's better to get people to change via negotiations and diplomacy, not attempting to install democracy one B1 strike at a time like the #neocons prefer.  (which is also one reason why I ask why we never truly seem to address the root cause issues that drive migrants to our Southern Border).

The problem is Pete, you live in a nation where our government literally traverses the world threatening nations with sanctions and war whenever they don't bend to our will.  This is why (for example) more African nations are welcoming China and Russia, than the United States these days.   One reason of course is that in order to justify a trillion dollar (annual) military-intelligence complex, you need bogey men, lots of them.  I believe in spheres of influence, not threats.  Sadly, we are now pushing a substantial portion of the world's population and growing portion of the world's economy into the Chinese sphere of influence.  The only thing that may stall that is (for example) the strength of the dollar and the U.S. stock market.



« Last Edit: August 16, 2022, 11:17:09 AM by sonofdaxjones »

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Possible WW3 thread
« Reply #3498 on: August 16, 2022, 11:28:31 AM »
ukraine war twitter is having a fun day with those long range hits.
Kind of interesting that the Ukrainians claimed it was partisans and/or Ukrainian long range missiles/drone when evidence points to it being HIMARS.

i'm not aware of any evidence that points to it being himars.  it almost certainly wasn't.

FT today quotes Russia calling it "sabotage" so good call sys.

Offline Tobias

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