I think his last 3 months in office have proved he is not some 4d chess playing anything, he only has an id and that's it. What he does have going for him as far as he knows or cares is nearly a 90% approval rating that was constant within the repub party, and overall knows he can do damn near anything and always have like 37-39% of the country no matter what. He just wants that and the adoration of it.
Any political genius thoughts come from the reaction of cucked and cowed people inside the repub party who don't want to constantly lose. This is the same thing that allowed them to keep him going in 2016, what forced them to hitch themselves/purge moderates in 2018, and what doomed them in 2020. They decided to do that, trump just decided to never change course.