Author Topic: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread  (Read 835 times)

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Offline Phil Titola

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Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« on: May 12, 2020, 08:16:20 AM »
What does the United States look like on September 22nd, 2020:

* Did you get it?
* What sports are being planned in what configuration (no fans, etc)
* Are all/some schools back in person session
* Is your work experience back to fairly normal?  Feels pretty much like it did in January 2020.
* What did your summer travel end up being?  Take a flight?
* Do you have any plans to travel the rest of 2020?
* How many US deaths?
* Do we have a national plan of action for tracing, quarantining any flareups? 
* Any major political changes?
* Where are we on a vaccine? antibody test? infection test?
* Is there some sort of "miracle" therapeutic in action knocking down how impactful this is?
* Have your favorite restaurants went out of business?
* Have you went back to your gym?
* Where are you at with personal gatherings?  Unlimited?  Only low risk people?


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Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2020, 08:21:03 AM »
First Prediction:

Phil Titola:  Still melting down after every #FearPorn prediction

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Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2020, 08:25:09 AM »
I’m going back to my gym this week. Check!
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 08:56:58 AM by 420seriouscat69 »

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2020, 08:39:01 AM »
First Prediction:

Phil Titola:  Still melting down after every #FearPorn prediction

Sucks you are the first response in the thread and only demonstrates your obsession and confusing different posters as the same person. 

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2020, 08:41:29 AM »
Here's mine
What does the United States look like on September 22nd, 2020:

* Did you get it?
No
* What sports are being planned in what configuration (no fans, etc)
Baseball playing their 82 game schedule, college football pushed to spring, NFL playing without fans
* Are all/some schools back in person session?
Schools are all back in session in person
* Is your work experience back to fairly normal?  Feels pretty much like it did in January 2020.
Most of my office still working from home as is our current plan but have 50%+ back in their normal offices
* What did your summer travel end up being?  Take a flight?
Drove to some national parks, no flying
* Do you have any plans to travel the rest of 2020?
Vegas in October and no plans to cancel
* How many US deaths?
110,000
* Do we have a national plan of action for tracing, quarantining any flareups? 
No.  All state plans. 
* Any major political changes?
No.
* Where are we on a vaccine? antibody test? infection test?
Vaccine still being dangled but not much closer.  Antibody test starting to roll out widely.  Infection test is about in every doctor office/CVS and is quick.
* Is there some sort of "miracle" therapeutic in action knocking down how impactful this is?
No miracle but have developed a cocktail that knocks it down pretty well if you go to the hospital
* Have your favorite restaurants went out of business?
Yes, a few downtown closed, a few are fighting through
* Have you went back to your gym?
Yes.  Went back in July
* Where are you at with personal gatherings?  Unlimited?  Only low risk people?
Pretty unlimited but not many big gatherings happening.  Basically hanging out with a few family/friends in small groups

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2020, 10:15:08 AM »
This thread has the making for a classic shame thread if people answer the way many of you don't want them to answer. Can't wait! :bwpopcorn: :bwpopcorn:

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2020, 10:43:22 AM »
This thread has the making for a classic shame thread if people answer the way many of you don't want them to answer. Can't wait! :bwpopcorn: :bwpopcorn:
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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2020, 10:58:59 AM »
This thread has the making for a classic shame thread if people answer the way many of you don't want them to answer. Can't wait! :bwpopcorn: :bwpopcorn:

Looks like a nobody answer thread, must be why Dax is so drawn to it.  :ROFL:

It was supposed to be an honest prediction thread, throw yours out there Wacky, I'm interested in what everybody is thinking rn.

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2020, 12:28:44 PM »
I would probably get in a plane starting in August/September, but it's mainly because i'm losing my goddamn mind and it's affecting my depression/anxiety more than usual. #MentalHealthCheck I'm planning for the worse however. I'm OK with no fans at sporting events for the rest of 2020 and having college football in the spring, but I think Universities will still push for the fall, with no fans. Once they bring me back to work, it will be the same for me. I've been working remote for 2 years now. I don't think we'll see a vaccine until the summer of 2021.  :frown: :frown:I'd feel comfortable eating somewhere soon, if it was outside, with a table in between. Not sure how restaurants will be profitable this way. Hoping for the best overall, though! :crossfingers: #HangInThereFriends

Offline bucket

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2020, 12:38:55 PM »
* Didn't get it!  :Woot:
* Baseball 81 games. NFL plays 16-17. College football is delayed but is played in the fall and spring. No fans.
* Schools close sporadically. Split classrooms.
* My work experience will be impacted. I imagine split office part of the fall. I expect regular testing too.
* Summer travel will be 30-60 minute trips to drive in movie theaters.
* I will travel home for 2020, but that's it.
* 160,000 US deaths
* After watching today's hearing I would anticipate central quarantines and contract tracing in the fall.
* Dems take the senate.
* I anticipate antibody testing being readily available in the fall. Vaccine in 2021.
* No "miracle" therapeutic
* I envision most of my favorite restaurants to go out of business. I have faith in one staying open, but that's because it's mostly carry out and catering.
* I'll probably go back to the gym because my squash partner really wants to get back in there.
* I will do social gatherings over the summer and fall as long as they're outside and social distancing is observed.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 01:03:23 PM by bucket »

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2020, 01:23:48 PM »
*probably got it
*NFL with no fans, spring football, NBA season getting ready to start without fans
*Schools are back in session
*Work back to normal
*I'm going to take a couple of trips to the Rockies, maybe some other national park. No flights.
*Also plan on traveling to see my parents over Christmas.
*130,000 US deaths
*LOL no. Plenty of local plans, though
*There will be major political changes, but not by September.
*No vaccine, antibody tests will continue to not be accurate, infection tests will be quicker and easier
*No miracle therapeutics
*Most of my favorite restaurants will be gone, and it's not like I would be willing to dine in, anyway.
*Not going to go to a gym
*Doubt I will be limiting personal gatherings

Offline nicname

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2020, 01:33:52 PM »
What does the United States look like on September 22nd, 2020:

* Did you get it?
prob
* What sports are being planned in what configuration (no fans, etc)
Hope, but dunno for college/pro. pretty sure most youth/school should be going. this is more important than pro imo.
* Are all/some schools back in person session
Most. I fear eventual shutdown in late fall/winter
* Is your work experience back to fairly normal?  Feels pretty much like it did in January 2020.
driving - yes, poker - doubtful. casino may be open, but not the same. oh well online and mobile still avail.
* What did your summer travel end up being?  Take a flight?
No clue, flights less likely.
* Do you have any plans to travel the rest of 2020?
trip to Jamaica planned for early sept. not sure if will happen
* How many US deaths?
dunno, I voted 200k in one of the death polls
* Do we have a national plan of action for tracing, quarantining any flareups? 

* Any major political changes?
?
* Where are we on a vaccine? antibody test? infection test?

* Is there some sort of "miracle" therapeutic in action knocking down how impactful this is?
prob some things that help. prob will be pretty politicized
* Have your favorite restaurants went out of business?
prob not
* Have you went back to your gym?
depends.
* Where are you at with personal gatherings?  Unlimited?  Only low risk people?

If there was a gif of nicname thwarting the attempted-flag-taker and then gesturing him to suck it, followed by motioning for all of Hilton Shelter to boo him louder, it'd be better than that auburn gif.


Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2020, 01:38:46 PM »

* Did you get it?  Not Yet
* What sports are being planned in what configuration (no fans, etc) Probably no or limited fans
* Are all/some schools back in person session  Some will be
* Is your work experience back to fairly normal?  Feels pretty much like it did in January 2020.  Can't get out on road to see customers
* What did your summer travel end up being?  Take a flight?   No where right now
* Do you have any plans to travel the rest of 2020?  Yes, but likely be amended or cancelled
* How many US deaths?  120K
* Do we have a national plan of action for tracing, quarantining any flareups?   Probably
* Any major political changes?   Hopefully not mega corrupt ChiCom Joe and his Communist puppet masters
* Where are we on a vaccine? antibody test? infection test?   Getting Close
* Is there some sort of "miracle" therapeutic in action knocking down how impactful this is? Probably
* Have your favorite restaurants went out of business?  Some will
* Have you went back to your gym?  Depends
* Where are you at with personal gatherings?  Unlimited?  Only low risk people?   Depends
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Offline 8manpick

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2020, 01:42:18 PM »

What does the United States look like on September 22nd, 2020:


* Did you get it?
No but my wife did. She's always more susceptible to getting sick
* What sports are being planned in what configuration (no fans, etc)
NFL - no fans
Baseball, short schedule / playoffs
NBA/NHL starting in January, limited fans
No college sports
* Are all/some schools back in person session
Some
* Is your work experience back to fairly normal?  Feels pretty much like it did in January 2020.
Not really, still primarily working remotely, maybe in the office once a week.  No in-person client meetings until 2021
* What did your summer travel end up being?  Take a flight?
No flights, likely visit family / in-laws at some point
* Do you have any plans to travel the rest of 2020?
Hopeful to go hunting in South Dakota in October, see family for TG and Xmas.  Chiefs away game on the wish list if it is feasible at the time.
* How many US deaths?
200,000
* Do we have a national plan of action for tracing, quarantining any flareups? 
national? no
* Any major political changes?
no
* Where are we on a vaccine? antibody test? infection test?
Vaccine still a 9 months - 1 year out.  Testing will be better, but still limited.  Maybe a million infection tests a day, hopefully more reliably accurate.  Antibody testing more limited.
* Is there some sort of "miracle" therapeutic in action knocking down how impactful this is?
Likely seeing some effective treatment beginning
* Have your favorite restaurants went out of business?
Too many of them have.  Ones with strong neighborhood ties, and low rents or self owned buildings will be alive
* Have you went back to your gym?
n/a, basement treadmill
* Where are you at with personal gatherings?  Unlimited?  Only low risk people?
Small gatherings, limited low risk friends
:adios:

Offline bucket

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2020, 02:57:25 PM »
One thing schools are already preparing for is having students with health issues take online classes. I don't think I've seen that on here.

Offline sys

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2020, 09:29:30 PM »
* Did you get it?  no
* What sports are being planned in what configuration (no fans, etc)?  nfl and mlb, no fans; no ncaa sports
* Are all/some schools back in person session?  some
* Is your work experience back to fairly normal?  Feels pretty much like it did in January 2020.  yes (right now is also yes)
* What did your summer travel end up being?  Take a flight?  no travel, no flights
* Do you have any plans to travel the rest of 2020?  hoping to be able to go to kansas for christmas, but dunno
* How many US deaths?  160k
* Do we have a national plan of action for tracing, quarantining any flareups?  state, with non-federal interstate coordination
* Any major political changes?  no
* Where are we on a vaccine? antibody test? infection test?  a year away; we have antibody tests now; infection test?  if you mean an antigen test, one was just approved
* Is there some sort of "miracle" therapeutic in action knocking down how impactful this is? not a miracle, but there are therapeutics
* Have your favorite restaurants went out of business?  no
* Have you went back to your gym?  na
* Where are you at with personal gatherings?  Unlimited?  Only low risk people?  no
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #16 on: May 12, 2020, 09:49:52 PM »
What does the United States look like on September 22nd, 2020:

* Did you get it?
Probably, would be more surprised at that point to not have gotten it
* What sports are being planned in what configuration (no fans, etc)
Pro more or less back to normal but not fans, NCAA tries but it's ultimately delayed
* Are all/some schools back in person session
Split, some states yes, some states no
* Is your work experience back to fairly normal?
We try and go back, but some rolling bouts make it be still tenuous. Lots of testing just to get in the door for everyone
* What did your summer travel end up being?  Take a flight?
Well have/had a trip planned to Italy about the time this is supposed to come to fruition. I don't expect Italy to allow us to go, nor would we take the chance. It gets pushed to 2021. Small road trips to more desolate areas around KS/MO taken
* Do you have any plans to travel the rest of 2020?
Other than work, probably not, and work continues to do road trips as much as possible.
* How many US deaths?
225k
* Do we have a national plan of action for tracing, quarantining any flareups? 
In some states yes, but lol at getting anything done on a national level
* Any major political changes?
Giant fight over mail in voting that ultimately goes no where. Most people distraught over voting in November, nothing major really happens to that point
* Where are we on a vaccine? antibody test? infection test?
Vaccine still a few months out but a several trials underway, antibody testing fairly widespread as is infection testing
* Is there some sort of "miracle" therapeutic in action knocking down how impactful this is?
Probably not, would be more surprised if something comes up than not. I think more hospitals are able to handle some of the waves but it's a very busy and disheartening group of hospital workers at that point
* Have your favorite restaurants went out of business?
As long as Homer's coffee, the peanut, and jack stack are there, I'm good
* Have you went back to your gym?
Gym is at work, so see work answer, but I continue to do pull ups, push ups, dips, and running to keep in decent shape
* Where are you at with personal gatherings?  Unlimited?  Only low risk people?
We go through fits of groups and not, personal gatherings stay very limited, even if you can go bigger, lots of people still in general either worried/not in a take risk mode, but more willing in general to get out and about
« Last Edit: May 12, 2020, 09:55:59 PM by cfbandyman »
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Offline sys

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2020, 10:02:02 PM »
it's weird to me how many people think both that they're going to have become infected but only another 150k or less americans will have died.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline nicname

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2020, 01:20:41 AM »
it's weird to me how many people think both that they're going to have become infected but only another 150k or less americans will have died.

Death rate low brah. I’ve expected to get it, since it started
If there was a gif of nicname thwarting the attempted-flag-taker and then gesturing him to suck it, followed by motioning for all of Hilton Shelter to boo him louder, it'd be better than that auburn gif.


Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2020, 02:27:22 AM »
it's weird to me how many people think both that they're going to have become infected but only another 150k or less americans will have died.

I'm very cynical about myself, and somewhat optimistic for others. I'm "guessing" the death rate to stay around 1000/day on average until Sept. 22nd. Which comes out to ~225k by then, I think if you said end of this year, I'd push it to closer to 350k-400k, and if you said we had to wait until this time next year for a vaccine to make this be "over" I'd say in the 500k-600k range, maybe more. Still pretty devastating no matter which way you slice it. If things go sideways again I think you can easily push that number up another 100k+ for Sept. 22nd. It is after all like 130+ days away.

Also, my job often takes me to places where people still doubt this is real or worth it. So I figured that into this as well (in terms of me getting it). To me the biggest factors in getting it are population density (when I'm back in KC, higher than "average"), and being in red states/areas (also a check, and definitely higher in the power plant world than average). Mix it all together I think it's a matter of when not if for me IMO.
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Offline sys

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2020, 07:38:45 AM »
the predictions combine to something like - i expect another 1-5% of the u.s. population to become infected by september and i expect myself to be amongst that group.  meanwhile the rest of most people's predictions have them avoiding most risk over the summer.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline sys

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #21 on: May 13, 2020, 07:39:53 AM »
i get pessimism as an emotional defense.  it's just funny.
we understand it better now that the american century is over and some of us sound more and more like serbs.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2020, 08:23:10 AM »
Yeah, thinking about it, I doubt I become infected by September. It will probably be later in the fall or winter.

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Offline 8manpick

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Re: Fall 2020 Prediction Thread
« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2020, 04:54:15 PM »
First of my favorite restaurants to announce they have permanently closed.  Probably ate here 3 times a month :(   :bawl:

https://fahlstromsfreshfish.com/?fbclid=IwAR261va8vDtTWYax9um2lc9L96U9qddSeqaw3ppsqxR-_zUfWo4Ctj7tMw8
:adios: