we'll see 70% of 25,000 players get it, at a death rate of 1 in ~200.
the mortality rate among college-aged people is much, much lower than that.
So I’ve heard. I was just taking PurpleOil at face value. That appears to have been a mistake.
That's because no one actually bothered to read what I wrote. I didn't say that there was a .5% mortality rate in people under 25 years old. I said,
The current percentages of death by those in the <25 age group with confirmed cases is less than .5%
Since we know that the number of people with the coronavirus is much higher than the number of confirmed cases due to asymptomatic carriers who never get tested, and that not everyone in that age group will even become infected, it is easy to conclude that the actual mortality rate for this age group is much much lower. This is the same conclusion that you all have come to by doing some simple math.
I went back and looked at where I grabbed my data, and the article was citing the New York City Department of Health's report as of the end of April.
New York is a hot spot. Not exactly appropriate to extrapolate throughout the country, but also not inaccurate for predicting what could be seen on a college campus.
