No 2020 College Football :-(

[michigancat]

dax said it was 0.2% in alabama

As of yesterday, the 3 and 7 day moving averages of new infections in AL have fallen off a cliff, the 14 day moving average is flat.

The last 5 days of daily numbers have plummeted by half since the last peak.   We'll see . . .

Why?  What did they do?

It could be a number of things, good and bad.  Less testing?   I haven't looked at those numbers.   Montgomery mandatory mask order?   My mask observos from a couple of quick errands yesterday were quite mixed around here, very disappointing.   

Hospitalizations down 100 in the last 5 days.

Since we're talking college football, the morbidity rate in the 5-24 age range here is .2% of 831 confirmed Covid-19 deaths.   Infection rate of the college age range is 16.64% of 30,301 confirmed cases. 

[DQ12]

0.5% death rate for college kids is way higher than reality fwiw.  As of 6/13, 125 15-24 year olds had died.  In order for that to come out to 0.5%, there would have to be only 25,000 infections in that demographic.  The US has had 2.4 million reported cases.

That's not to say one way or the other whether we *should* have CFB this year, but 0.5% for college kids is absurd.

[michigancat]

0.5% death rate for college kids is way higher than reality fwiw.  As of 6/13, 125 15-24 year olds had died.  In order for that to come out to 0.5%, there would have to be only 25,000 infections in that demographic.  The US has had 2.4 million reported cases.

That's not to say one way or the other whether we *should* have CFB this year, but 0.5% for college kids is absurd.

yeah I'd be shocked if a college athlete died even if things are wide open

[DQ12]

0.5% death rate for college kids is way higher than reality fwiw.  As of 6/13, 125 15-24 year olds had died.  In order for that to come out to 0.5%, there would have to be only 25,000 infections in that demographic.  The US has had 2.4 million reported cases.

That's not to say one way or the other whether we *should* have CFB this year, but 0.5% for college kids is absurd.

yeah I'd be shocked if a college athlete died even if things are wide open

I really wouldn't -- I'm sure there are plenty of ugly comorbidities even for finely tuned athletes.  When you have that many people, there's a fair chance that someone is going to draw the short straw and get a stroke of horrible luck and die (not for nothing, but i presume this is the same as flu and other common illnesses that can get ugly for a few people out of 25,000).  All that said, it is exceedingly rare for anyone 15-24 to die from Rona. 

Now, 100 dead CFB players would be absolutely shocking to me -- as that would be about double of all deaths from the college demographic to date.

[bucket]

0.5% death rate for college kids is way higher than reality fwiw.  As of 6/13, 125 15-24 year olds had died.  In order for that to come out to 0.5%, there would have to be only 25,000 infections in that demographic.  The US has had 2.4 million reported cases.

That's not to say one way or the other whether we *should* have CFB this year, but 0.5% for college kids is absurd.

yeah I'd be shocked if a college athlete died even if things are wide open

I really wouldn't -- I'm sure there are plenty of ugly comorbidities even for finely tuned athletes.  When you have that many people, there's a fair chance that someone is going to draw the short straw and get a stroke of horrible luck and die (not for nothing, but i presume this is the same as flu and other common illnesses that can get ugly for a few people out of 25,000).  All that said, it is exceedingly rare for anyone 15-24 to die from Rona. 

Now, 100 dead CFB players would be absolutely shocking to me -- as that would be about double of all deaths from the college demographic to date.

It looks like Texas had a couple that were symptomatic. I wonder what the symptoms are like for college kids who aren't asymptomatic? I would imagine it varies widely. Kareem Jackson of the Broncos tested positive and had cold like symptoms so I wonder if that's what it's like for most of that age group.

[wetwillie]

I still think we have a season given the risk profile of college football athletes.  If we don’t I won’t be upset, but I have to think it would a devastating blow to most Athletic Departments.

[MakeItRain]

0.5% death rate for college kids is way higher than reality fwiw.  As of 6/13, 125 15-24 year olds had died.  In order for that to come out to 0.5%, there would have to be only 25,000 infections in that demographic.  The US has had 2.4 million reported cases.

That's not to say one way or the other whether we *should* have CFB this year, but 0.5% for college kids is absurd.

yeah I'd be shocked if a college athlete died even if things are wide open

More of these outliers will happen the younger the patients are becoming. When we started mandated distancing these kids already were home or went home when the schools closed. If these college towns and campuses open up, it will be a disaster. Someone, somewhere will get admitted to the ICU and then everything will get shut down. This is much harder to manage with college students than with professionals.

Also there are enough of these student athletes with type 1, sickle cell, and or rheumatoid arthritis, that these cases can become very dangerous very quickly.

[MakeItRain]

0.5% death rate for college kids is way higher than reality fwiw.  As of 6/13, 125 15-24 year olds had died.  In order for that to come out to 0.5%, there would have to be only 25,000 infections in that demographic.  The US has had 2.4 million reported cases.

That's not to say one way or the other whether we *should* have CFB this year, but 0.5% for college kids is absurd.

yeah I'd be shocked if a college athlete died even if things are wide open

I really wouldn't -- I'm sure there are plenty of ugly comorbidities even for finely tuned athletes.  When you have that many people, there's a fair chance that someone is going to draw the short straw and get a stroke of horrible luck and die (not for nothing, but i presume this is the same as flu and other common illnesses that can get ugly for a few people out of 25,000).  All that said, it is exceedingly rare for anyone 15-24 to die from Rona. 

Now, 100 dead CFB players would be absolutely shocking to me -- as that would be about double of all deaths from the college demographic to date.

Also we're only talking about football players but they represent around half of the athletes on these campuses, even basketball players are starting to arrive.

[sonofdaxjones]

LOL, excellent work at making it sound like it's absolutely impossible to pull this off.

it's totally possible to pull off, the question is how many people are we willing to let die for it? (lots of people will die if college football is played this year).

Ok cRusty

If they're going to treat college football games like parties at Novak Djokovic's house, you've possibly got a point.

[Trim]

LOL at trying to push through a single bastardized college football season when right as it'd be ending we can all be chipped and not have to worry about anything.

[sys]

we'll see 70% of 25,000 players get it, at a death rate of 1 in ~200.

the mortality rate among college-aged people is much, much lower than that.

[8manpick]

we'll see 70% of 25,000 players get it, at a death rate of 1 in ~200.

the mortality rate among college-aged people is much, much lower than that.

So I’ve heard. I was just taking PurpleOil at face value. That appears to have been a mistake.

[sys]

yeah, i should have kept reading before replying.  it's a bad habit.

[DQ12]

I’m glad we all beat the shot out of 8man today in here.

[8manpick]

I’m glad we all beat the shot out of 8man today in here.

  

[DaBigTrain]

I just got a message from the future guys and this is all it said:

"No football will be played in Fall 2020."

[steve dave]

https://twitter.com/ryanablack/status/1275841692059525125


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[Trim]

[sys]

i mean, getting them all immune over the summer is probably the best way to go about this.

generalize it to all outwardly healthy college students.  crowd them together on campuses somewhere for a month or so with no faculty or staff around.   complete lord of the flies crap.

[Trim]

crowd them together on campuses somewhere for a month or so with no faculty or staff around.   complete lord of the flies crap.

There is a perfect place for this, albeit technically not on campus.

[sys]

covid summer 2020: aww yeeeah, time to eff.

[steve dave]

lmao


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[meow meow]

i think albert einstein said it best...."no consequences"

[420seriouscat69]

It's "No negative consequences", dork!

[KST8FAN]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/06/23/opinion/cancel-fall-college-football-season/


Tom

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