CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[sys]

govt has the authority in the united states, if you're just making a legal argument.  go back a few days and look for michigancat's posts on the history of quarantines in the u.s.

[sys]

 

https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1260047724155736066

[sys]

sounds like australia and nz had strict lockdowns, borders largely closed (quarantines for any incomers allowed through) and large-scale testing and tracing.

so centralized quarantine not a big part of the response, at least for community spread, but test and trace was.


https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28737/after-containing-covid-19-can-new-zealand-and-australia-show-how-to-reopen

[DQ12]

govt has the authority in the united states, if you're just making a legal argument.  go back a few days and look for michigancat's posts on the history of quarantines in the u.s.

I'm not really making a legal argument, more of a normative argument.  I have no doubt that the government could edict a quarantine and that, theoretically, it could withstand constitutional scrutiny. 

All I'm saying is that it's far more expedient for governments like China's/Singapore's to do it because they're more consistently draconian/authoritarian, at least domestically speaking.  I'm probably assuming some american exceptionalism here, but I think that makes sense when comparing the US to the likes of Singapore and China.

[Spracne]

govt has the authority in the united states, if you're just making a legal argument.  go back a few days and look for michigancat's posts on the history of quarantines in the u.s.

I'm not really making a legal argument, more of a normative argument.  I have no doubt that, theoretically legally, the government could edict a quarantine. 

All I'm saying is that it's far more expedient for governments like China's/Singapore's to do it because they're more consistently draconian/authoritarian, at least domestically speaking.

I'm not sure it's just, or even mostly, "draconian/authoritarian" governments, rather than a completely different culture that de-emphasizes the self and is largely trusting of (and compliant with) authority. So, not the U.S.A., to your point. While a "strong suggestion" of centralized quarantine might be effective in SK or Singapore, Americans are far more conditioned to say, "Is that a request or an order?"

[DQ12]

govt has the authority in the united states, if you're just making a legal argument.  go back a few days and look for michigancat's posts on the history of quarantines in the u.s.

I'm not really making a legal argument, more of a normative argument.  I have no doubt that, theoretically legally, the government could edict a quarantine. 

All I'm saying is that it's far more expedient for governments like China's/Singapore's to do it because they're more consistently draconian/authoritarian, at least domestically speaking.

I'm not sure it's just, or even mostly, "draconian/authoritarian" governments, rather than a completely different culture that de-emphasizes the self and is largely trusting of (and compliant with) authority. So, not the U.S.A., to your point. While a "strong suggestion" of centralized quarantine might be effective in SK or Singapore, Americans are far more conditioned to say, "Is that a request or an order?"

Fair point.  Interesting chicken v. egg thought experiment.

[michigancat]

i'd argue that the asian model - most of the population behaving fairly normally, with a very, very small fraction of people in 2 week quarantine is quite a bit more normal than most of the population experiencing a lax lockdown/partial opening with nobody in quarantine as we are doing/seem to be planning on doing.

When you say "asian model," can you point to specific countries?  SK and China don't jump out to me as great analogues to the US.

i'm thinking mostly of south korea, hong kong and singapore, but china also fits.  i believe, but i'm not completely sure, that new zealand and australia are following the same basic plan.  i'll google that in a second.

vietnam, the philippines and i think most of the se asian countries are mostly on the same track in terms of using quarantines - but i'm not sure they fall into the category of life being mostly normal for most people or not.

Including countries like China and Singapore seems like kind of a stretch given the draconian power their governments have -- though I'm only vaguely familiar with the details of Singapore.  If any level of US govt had the power of that of China/Singapore, then yeah I think the boot of the state could stomp this out more efficiently.  But if people are advocating that we ape Singapore/China here, that seems a bit naive to me. 

South Korea and Hong Kong's per capita cases are far, far below where the US is at -- the US per capita cases is something like 20x where SK and HK are.  Not saying it's impossible or that late isn't better than never, just saying that contact tracing <200/1m probably looks quite a bit different than contact tracing >4000/1m.  Had we put together a cohesive contact tracing framework together back in march/april, it obviously would've been a smaller task -- though even then, the nature of a 320 million person country where free travel is constitutionally guaranteed would have presented additional challenges compared to SK/HK.

do you see any proactive solutions that would be better than aggressive test/trace/isolate before a vaccine? Like, yeah, there's a shitload of people and cases here, so start with high risk communities - regionally and locally. I don't know if you read the article I linked about contact tracers in California, but they're already targeting traces that impact health care workers and nursing homes and letting other contacts slide. I think contact tracing should be built up nationwide, but really ramp it up in places like New York that have started to see cases come down and has been offering hotel rooms for quarantine. Instead of trying to get in touch with every close contact of a positive case, only get in touch with the health care professionals or elderly. Regardless, start somewhere and make it a model for the rest of the country when hot spots inevitably arise.

If Americans don't want to be forced to go to a hotel to ride out quarantine, make it voluntary, but at least make it available. Start mandatory isolation in hotels for non-citizens entering the country (and ideally citizens). Show people the data about how isolating at home will get their family sick. Show people the data about how effective centralized quarantine can be.

Just rough ridin' do something.

[Spracne]

govt has the authority in the united states, if you're just making a legal argument.  go back a few days and look for michigancat's posts on the history of quarantines in the u.s.

I'm not really making a legal argument, more of a normative argument.  I have no doubt that, theoretically legally, the government could edict a quarantine. 

All I'm saying is that it's far more expedient for governments like China's/Singapore's to do it because they're more consistently draconian/authoritarian, at least domestically speaking.

I'm not sure it's just, or even mostly, "draconian/authoritarian" governments, rather than a completely different culture that de-emphasizes the self and is largely trusting of (and compliant with) authority. So, not the U.S.A., to your point. While a "strong suggestion" of centralized quarantine might be effective in SK or Singapore, Americans are far more conditioned to say, "Is that a request or an order?"

Fair point.  Interesting chicken v. egg thought experiment.

Are you saying that perhaps if they were historically allowed to bear arms, they would be just like us patriots?

[sonofdaxjones]

SMDH, not surprising that cRusty is all for Covid-19 Internment Camps.

There's no reason for someone that doesn't live in a densely populated area to go to a Covid-19 internment camp.

In addition, people like Mario "Nursing Home Killer" Cuomo can set up quarantine facilities if he chooses.

The U.S. has conducted 10 million tests, there isn't enough places to put everyone who has tested positive.

[sys]

I'm not really making a legal argument, more of a normative argument.

i think that, in theory, the u.s. could have had a unified bipartisan response where the goal and intent was clearly explained and couched in patriotic and communitarian terms and americans would have been pretty accepting.

i think i agree with you that is no longer the case (and maybe couldn't have been the case for a couple of decades).  i think we could still get pretty high voluntary compliance with strongly suggested, properly incentivized quarantines.

the good thing about reducing the transmission rate - every little bit helps.  it's not like fighting terrorism where you eff up once and it's considered a disaster.  if you get even just like 70% voluntarily compliance, it'd be a huge impact.

[DQ12]

govt has the authority in the united states, if you're just making a legal argument.  go back a few days and look for michigancat's posts on the history of quarantines in the u.s.

I'm not really making a legal argument, more of a normative argument.  I have no doubt that, theoretically legally, the government could edict a quarantine. 

All I'm saying is that it's far more expedient for governments like China's/Singapore's to do it because they're more consistently draconian/authoritarian, at least domestically speaking.

I'm not sure it's just, or even mostly, "draconian/authoritarian" governments, rather than a completely different culture that de-emphasizes the self and is largely trusting of (and compliant with) authority. So, not the U.S.A., to your point. While a "strong suggestion" of centralized quarantine might be effective in SK or Singapore, Americans are far more conditioned to say, "Is that a request or an order?"

Fair point.  Interesting chicken v. egg thought experiment.

Are you saying that perhaps if they were historically allowed to bear arms, they would be just like us patriots?

I'm saying if thousands of their students weren't famously slaughtered by the government a couple decades ago because they had the gall to protest for some fairly basic human rights maybe they'd have a slightly different national psyche.  Or maybe their national psyche allowed the government to do those things.  Chicken or egg.  I'm sure there's been a lot of ink spilled over that.

long post

Yeah I don't take issue at all with voluntary contact tracing, and I imagine it would be pretty beneficial.  My only point was that MIR's "return to normalcy" was vague and that a world with contact tracing/quarantine wouldn't really be a "return to normalcy" I don't think, because we've never really done nation-wide contact tracing/quarantine'ing -- at least not to this level (at least not in our lifetimes). 

I also already acknowledged that what I was saying could be seen as pedantic so you don't get to make that point now, buster.

[DQ12]

I'm not really making a legal argument, more of a normative argument.

i think that, in theory, the u.s. could have had a unified bipartisan response where the goal and intent was clearly explained and couched in patriotic and communitarian terms and americans would have been pretty accepting.

i think i agree with you that is no longer the case (and maybe couldn't have been the case for a couple of decades).  i think we could still get pretty high voluntary compliance with strongly suggested, properly incentivized quarantines.

the good thing about reducing the transmission rate - every little bit helps.  it's not like fighting terrorism where you eff up once and it's considered a disaster.  if you get even just like 70% voluntarily compliance, it'd be a huge impact.

I agree.

[sonofdaxjones]

Harvard conclusion:   Don't put people on ventilators

Cornell:  The reason that SARS-CoV-2 is so contagious and deadly is because it contains substantial components of MERS and substantial components of HCoV-HKU1 which is classified as a mildly symptomatic super contagion and professor of virology of Cornell, Gary Whitaker classified it as a "strange combination". 

But gosh darn it, don't anyone start talking about how this could have walked out of a lab in China.   Cornell did affirm that the virus originated in bats.   

See also Dr. Anthony Fauci's Bat Man and Bat Woman "gain of control" research.

[michigancat]

Yeah I don't take issue at all with voluntary contact tracing, and I imagine it would be pretty beneficial.  My only point was that MIR's "return to normalcy" was vague and that a world with contact tracing wouldn't really be a "return to normalcy" I don't think, because we've never really done nation-wide contact tracing.  I also already acknowledged that what I was saying could be seen as pedantic so you don't get to make that point now, buster.

testing and contact tracing alone will do pretty little to "return to normalcy". We've really done a shitload of testing which is great, but hasn't really slowed the spread or made anyone think their liberties are being infringed.

Contact tracing can be good old fashioned calling and interviewing people, it doesn't require a technology, app, or surveillance with questionable privacy implications - I don't see how a world with basic contact tracing couldn't be "normal". I actually prefer the old-fashioned contact tracing because it could get people back to work and takes the approach of "we want to keep your family and community safe, so tell us where you've been" rather than having people think google is spying on them.

but really the only thing that gets us to "return to normalcy" is a confidence that activities we engaged in February won't likely allow us to either catch or spread the disease, regardless of what the state is ordering. To get there, I see two options: aggressive isolation of positive cases and contacts or a vaccine. Or, I suppose a third that involves a shitload of nursing home residents dying.

[MakeItRain]

It seems like there is a quite a bit of wiggle room between "do nothing/'millions of people dying'" and "continue the lockdown until vaccine/R0 x/full infrastructure for contract tracing, etc."

If the point is to flatten the curve, yes there's wiggle room because enough people will practice distancing efforts, wearing masks, washing hands, etc. If the point is to slow the spread to the point where we experience normalcy, then, no there isn't wiggle room because there won't be enough people practicing distancing efforts, wearing masks, washing hands, etc. We just need to face the fact that as a country we don't have the discipline to do what we need to do to return to normalcy. Look at the numbers in Georgia since they reopened, that's coming everywhere else, we're stupid.

what numbers in Georgia?  Washington Post shows cases and deaths declining since the 24th?

NBC News just this evening had a story talking about the numbers being up 17%. However looking at the numbers the state is reporting that isn't correct. It also isn't correct that their numbers have decreased since the 24th. Their 14 day average has decreased but their day to day numbers aren't showing any specific extended decrease. They will be down a couple of days then back up for one or two, they have been in that pattern for a couple of weeks.

[sonofdaxjones]

My expectation is, and I am a bit of an optimist, that we don’t find out that there’s only one of these vaccines that works, but rather two or three of them come through the trials looking as though they’re safe and effective,” Collins said. “They’ll have somewhat different characteristics of where they work best, so we might need to do some matching then of which vaccine goes to which particular population.”

Collins, who began leading the NIH in 2009 under then-President Barack Obama, said there’s enough money to rapidly manufacture 100 million vaccine doses by late fall and 300 million before January. The first people to get a vaccine will likely be frontline health workers and those with chronic conditions that put them at greater risk from the illness. Later, Collins said, the U.S. government will have to increase manufacturing to meet global demand, and distribute vaccines to countries particularly hard-hit by the virus.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/nih-chief-sees-likely-need-for-multiple-vaccines-to-fight-virus/ar-BB13Wem5

[MakeItRain]

It seems like there is a quite a bit of wiggle room between "do nothing/'millions of people dying'" and "continue the lockdown until vaccine/R0 x/full infrastructure for contract tracing, etc."

If the point is to flatten the curve, yes there's wiggle room because enough people will practice distancing efforts, wearing masks, washing hands, etc. If the point is to slow the spread to the point where we experience normalcy, then, no there isn't wiggle room because there won't be enough people practicing distancing efforts, wearing masks, washing hands, etc. We just need to face the fact that as a country we don't have the discipline to do what we need to do to return to normalcy. Look at the numbers in Georgia since they reopened, that's coming everywhere else, we're stupid.

what numbers in Georgia?  Washington Post shows cases and deaths declining since the 24th?

"Slow the spread to the point where we experience normalcy" is a pretty vague barometer.  Not trying to be pedantic, but even if we did some ultra intense contact tracing (or whatever measures you envision that would make us non-stupid), it's hard to consider life "normal" when you could be forced/"highly encouraged" to go into isolation for 2 weeks at the drop of a hat. 

There have been 1.3 million positive tests in this country + however many more untested/asyomptomatic.  Totally eradicating the virus outside of a vaccine/herd immunity panacea seems unlikely at this point from my non-expert POV.

I'm sure this has been hashed out by now, I think rusty and sys have it taken care of. However, yes the phrase normalcy is vague because what's normal anymore. There has to be some government intervention, it doesn't seem as if enough Americans would agree to stay home for a defined amount of time or contact trace, or really anything that would serve the larger good.

[sonofdaxjones]

Cornell:  The "Strange Combination"

In the face of a moratorium in the US, Dr Anthony Fauci – the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and currently the leading doctor in the US Coronavirus Task Force – outsourced in 2015 the GOF research to China’s Wuhan lab and licensed the lab to continue receiving US government funding.

The Wuhan lab is now at the center of scrutiny for possibly releasing the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and causing the global Covid-19 pandemic.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-us-outsourced-bat-virus-research-to-wuhan/

[michigancat]

It seems like there is a quite a bit of wiggle room between "do nothing/'millions of people dying'" and "continue the lockdown until vaccine/R0 x/full infrastructure for contract tracing, etc."

If the point is to flatten the curve, yes there's wiggle room because enough people will practice distancing efforts, wearing masks, washing hands, etc. If the point is to slow the spread to the point where we experience normalcy, then, no there isn't wiggle room because there won't be enough people practicing distancing efforts, wearing masks, washing hands, etc. We just need to face the fact that as a country we don't have the discipline to do what we need to do to return to normalcy. Look at the numbers in Georgia since they reopened, that's coming everywhere else, we're stupid.

what numbers in Georgia?  Washington Post shows cases and deaths declining since the 24th?

NBC News just this evening had a story talking about the numbers being up 17%. However looking at the numbers the state is reporting that isn't correct. It also isn't correct that their numbers have decreased since the 24th. Their 14 day average has decreased but their day to day numbers aren't showing any specific extended decrease. They will be down a couple of days then back up for one or two, they have been in that pattern for a couple of weeks.

here's their rolling 7 day average of new cases compared to the top 10 states in terms of cases per capita. They've they haven't had any crazy jumps the last 3 weeks or so (although if you scale the y-axis to the highlighted it's a little noisier). Kinda crazy how noisy their 7 day average is, actually.

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Georgia&show=10&trendline=default&y=log&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&extra=(None)#states-normalized

[michigancat]

There has to be some government intervention, it doesn't seem as if enough Americans would agree to stay home for a defined amount of time or contact trace, or really anything that would serve the larger good.

yeah, contact tracing and stronger isolation has to come from the government. But I don't think we can be sure people would reject contact tracing and isolation when most people don't know what contact tracing entails and centralized isolation it hasn't even been proposed outside of New York hotels on a voluntary basis. I mean it's pretty incredible how easily people accepted the entire economy shutting down for the initial shelter-in-place orders, I don't think people would be that adverse to living in a hotel for a couple weeks if it meant their spouse or elderly parents at home wouldn't get sick. How do you know unless you try?

[sonofdaxjones]

There has to be some government intervention, it doesn't seem as if enough Americans would agree to stay home for a defined amount of time or contact trace, or really anything that would serve the larger good.

yeah, contact tracing and stronger isolation has to come from the government. But I don't think we can be sure people would reject contact tracing and isolation when most people don't know what contact tracing entails and centralized isolation it hasn't even been proposed outside of New York hotels on a voluntary basis. I mean it's pretty incredible how easily people accepted the entire economy shutting down for the initial shelter-in-place orders, I don't think people would be that adverse to living in a hotel for a couple weeks if it meant their spouse or elderly parents at home wouldn't get sick. How do you know unless you try?

It's been tried.  See also:  Georgia

[sys]

just a bit more pushback on the framing of asian populaces as compliant and accepting of overbearing government authority.  it is just as easy to frame it as them expecting and demanding a competent public health response from their governments.  oh, and i completely forgot about taiwan when i listed countries earlier.  they've done better than anyone.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1259593716483964930

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1258807154787696643

[michigancat]

Yeah I don't take issue at all with voluntary contact tracing, and I imagine it would be pretty beneficial.  My only point was that MIR's "return to normalcy" was vague and that a world with contact tracing wouldn't really be a "return to normalcy" I don't think, because we've never really done nation-wide contact tracing.  I also already acknowledged that what I was saying could be seen as pedantic so you don't get to make that point now, buster.

testing and contact tracing alone will do pretty little to "return to normalcy". We've really done a shitload of testing which is great, but hasn't really slowed the spread or made anyone think their liberties are being infringed.

Contact tracing can be good old fashioned calling and interviewing people, it doesn't require a technology, app, or surveillance with questionable privacy implications - I don't see how a world with basic contact tracing couldn't be "normal". I actually prefer the old-fashioned contact tracing because it could get people back to work and takes the approach of "we want to keep your family and community safe, so tell us where you've been" rather than having people think google is spying on them.

but really the only thing that gets us to "return to normalcy" is a confidence that activities we engaged in February won't likely allow us to either catch or spread the disease, regardless of what the state is ordering. To get there, I see two options: aggressive isolation of positive cases and contacts or a vaccine. Or, I suppose a third that involves a shitload of nursing home residents dying.

you know I was thinking that Taiwan, Korea, Australia, and NZ were largely so successful because they acted early and aggressively, so maybe you start with the aggressive contact tracing and isolation in a place like Wichita. It's fairly isolated and has fewer than 100 cases per 100k but would still require a decent sized operation. See what works and how the people react so you can apply it to other cities that get their case counts down. The tricky part is keeping the virus from Seward and Ford counties out, which highlights the next problem we have with no coordinated federal response. the most common analogy I've seen is stamping out the virus in one region without travel restrictions from others is the equivalent of a no peeing section in a pool. Or a no-smoking section on an airplane. Again, Wichita's a good place for a trial run because there sure as hell aren't any tourists and business travel is probably way down given its reliance on the aircraft industry.

[michigancat]

just a bit more pushback on the framing of asian populaces as compliant and accepting of overbearing government authority.  it is just as easy to frame it as them expecting and demanding a competent public health response from their governments.  oh, and i completely forgot about taiwan when i listed countries earlier.  they've done better than anyone.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1259593716483964930

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1258807154787696643

also they were impacted by SARS and MERS in a meaningful way

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/

[michigancat]

a good thread for phil on summer activities:

https://twitter.com/gbosslet/status/1258715950536437760