CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[michigancat]

Btw, 979 reported deaths yesterday.   

 

Is Georgia really "open" does anybody know? Their numbers haven't grown and by my count, they are 14+ days after their official reopening on the 24th.

I expect it will be stable for a while, probably until bars and churches get full again or it hits a large nursing home. People modified their behavior even if mobility is up. IMO every state should consider "reopening" based on the behavior changes. I just don't know how that impacts things like PPP or future bailouts for a lot of service industries. Because like, I'm probably not going to a bar or a concert for quite a while and I'm guessing I'm not alone.

also looking at when each state reopened vs. its number of cases makes it seem like there is no rhyme or reason for the decisions.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

Good info.  I don't even think daily case count is all the great of a reopening indicator even though I mentioned it in my Georgia comment.  That seems to vary wildly and is impacted by ramping up testing and something like a meat packing plant testing results. 

Seems to me spread out restaurants, masks, good hygiene (I assume those are the behaviors you are referencing) is the more sensible way to do it. 

I tend to agree on daily case count. Daily case count is probably most useful when compared with positivity rate. And you should also look at hospitalizations, ICU beds, and deaths, because they all are tied together. I wish there was something like our world in data for states because that's a pretty great resource and would be even better if you could look at smaller regions within the US.

Here's an interesting thread on the challenges of estimating the reproductive rate of a virus (which is what Germany is using to inform lockdown triggers)

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409

[sonofdaxjones]

Herd immunity at 7-24%, not 81% according to this research.

https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/#_edn22

Oh man, most of Useful Idiot Nation hates Judith Curry with the power of 4,785 suns.

[michigancat]

I wish there was something like our world in data for states because that's a pretty great resource and would be even better if you could look at smaller regions within the US.

the Judith Curry link had a comment that linked to this:

https://tinyurl.com/yaz3fj5q

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Georgia&show=all&trendline=default&y=fixed&scale=log&data=cases-daily-7&extra=New%20York,California,New%20York,Alabama#states-normalized




very useful

[sonofdaxjones]

Geezus cRusty . . . here's a breakdown by county 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

[michigancat]

Geezus cRusty . . . here's a breakdown by county 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

that's a great resource but doesn't show daily trends, which I think is more useful for determining the effects of policy and what to do with policy in the future. There's no need to be rude, dax.

[sys]

Is Georgia really "open" does anybody know? Their numbers haven't grown and by my count, they are 14+ days after their official reopening on the 24th.

Last week was MO's deadliest week by over 20%. 

broadly speaking, the pattern seems to be:

coastal states - rapidly decreasing
south - decreasing
upper midwest - holding approximately steady, but from a fairly large incidence
great plains - slowly increasing, but from a low incidence


the great plains states, in particular, may be mostly driven by meat packing plants.

[sys]

i think one of the most interesting, completely unknown variables, for the upcoming months in the united states is how well the virus transmits in air conditioned interiors.

[michigancat]

this is pretty much where I'm at

https://twitter.com/yeselson/status/1259874291279159297

https://twitter.com/KeithNHumphreys/status/1259828752516706304

we're going to do the sweden thing, decimate communities of color and the elderly, not be allowed to travel internationally w/o quarantine, and probably do even deeper damage to the economy

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Is Georgia really "open" does anybody know? Their numbers haven't grown and by my count, they are 14+ days after their official reopening on the 24th.

Last week was MO's deadliest week by over 20%. 

broadly speaking, the pattern seems to be:

coastal states - rapidly decreasing
south - decreasing
upper midwest - holding approximately steady, but from a fairly large incidence
great plains - slowly increasing, but from a low incidence


the great plains states, in particular, may be mostly driven by meat packing plants.

I don't have time to look it up, but you'll probably find that the numbers are differ greatly from blue to red states. And, maybe even from blue to red counties within individual states.

Anecdotally, that's how it seems.

[sys]

the Judith Curry link

i posted three threads regarding network effects on herd immunity a day or two ago.  i'd recommend reading those in conjunction with the blog post above.

[michigancat]

Is Georgia really "open" does anybody know? Their numbers haven't grown and by my count, they are 14+ days after their official reopening on the 24th.

Last week was MO's deadliest week by over 20%. 

broadly speaking, the pattern seems to be:

coastal states - rapidly decreasing
south - decreasing
upper midwest - holding approximately steady, but from a fairly large incidence
great plains - slowly increasing, but from a low incidence


the great plains states, in particular, may be mostly driven by meat packing plants.

I'm not going to check all your work but the west coast certainly isn't decreasing rapidly

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=California&show=highlight-only&trendline=default&y=fixed&scale=log&data=cases-daily-7&extra=Oregon,Washington,Arizona,Nevada#states-normalized

*EDIT: it looks like you were referring to deaths. Never mind

[sys]

i thought about separating the coasts.  or just separating ny metro and new england from the rest, but then i didn't.

[michigancat]

i thought about separating the coasts.  or just separating ny metro and new england from the rest, but then i didn't.

deaths in NY tri-state and NE aren't really rapidly decreasing either

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Connecticut&show=highlight-only&trendline=default&y=fixed&scale=log&data=deaths-daily-7&extra=New%20York,New%20Jersey,Rhode%20Island,Massachusetts#states-normalized

cases look to be decreasing though

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Connecticut&show=highlight-only&trendline=default&y=fixed&scale=log&data=cases-daily-7&extra=New%20York,New%20Jersey,Rhode%20Island,Massachusetts#states-normalized

[MakeItRain]

weird that the doctors on the task force are self isolating

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/09/robert-redfield-cdc-self-quarantine-246098

also weird that someone got it even though they were tested every day!

The test is not a vaccine cRusty!

He's mocking you, dipshit.

And I'm mocking you dumbass.

[sys]

deaths in NY tri-state and NE aren't really rapidly decreasing either

switch it to linear scale.

[michigancat]

deaths in NY tri-state and NE aren't really rapidly decreasing either

switch it to linear scale.

wish they all started from the same date

[sys]

yeah, synchronized dates would be better for something like this.

[sonofdaxjones]

weird that the doctors on the task force are self isolating

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/09/robert-redfield-cdc-self-quarantine-246098

also weird that someone got it even though they were tested every day!

The test is not a vaccine cRusty!

He's mocking you, dipshit.

And I'm mocking you dumbass.

Wow . . . simply amazing 

[sonofdaxjones]

this is pretty much where I'm at

https://twitter.com/yeselson/status/1259874291279159297

https://twitter.com/KeithNHumphreys/status/1259828752516706304

we're going to do the sweden thing, decimate communities of color and the elderly, not be allowed to travel internationally w/o quarantine, and probably do even deeper damage to the economy

Please describe what you consider "decimation".

Right now it appears you're just pulling various Twitter randos out of your ass.

[DQ12]

I haven't been paying much attention to political rhetoric over the last couple of weeks, but are left leaning governors/congress advocating for contact tracing en masse?  For example, has Gov. Kelly set forth some contact tracing program that's been rejected by pubs?

I guess I haven't seen much dialogue about contact tracing beyond public health wonks.

[sonofdaxjones]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/report-says-cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716

They also know that the level of Covid-19 symptomatic searches on the Chinese search engine (singular) rapidly increased during the Oct-Nov time frame.

[CHONGS]

Something to lighten eveyone's day

Hardcore Lib downloads on Bill Gates.   Note:  Not an anit-vaxer at all, quite the opposite, but I might be convinced to become an anti GatesVax'er. 

Then again, for some of the useful idiots on here, anything the TechnoOligarchs say is the truth . . . sad.

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/government-corruption/gates-globalist-vaccine-agenda-a-win-win-for-pharma-and-mandatory-vaccination/

Kind of weird that a guy who made billions on half-baked virus ridden products is such a big virus guy.

The thing is sys, you have a LARGE MAGA population that is anti-mask, anti-virus, anti-vax, etc. These are the people that will continue to spread this. They are the ones bitching about the economy opening up. Yet they are gonna be the reason we open up slower. It’s so rough ridin' stupid.

The most hardcore anti-vaxer in the country is the most hardcore Useful Idiot Lib you can find, and he's backed by a legion of Useful Idiot Libs, including tons of so called progressives in Hollywood.;

Well who is it?

Robert F Kennedy Jr

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2019/05/08/he-is-wrong-robert-f-kennedy-jrs-family-calls-him-out-anti-vax-conspiracy-theories/

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has long faced condemnation for spreading conspiracy theories about vaccines causing autism, a claim debunked by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the American Academy of Pediatrics and many other leading health and science organizations around the world.

[michigancat]

I haven't been paying much attention to political rhetoric over the last couple of weeks, but are left leaning governors/congress advocating for contact tracing en masse?  For example, has Gov. Kelly set forth some contact tracing program that's been rejected by pubs?

I guess I haven't seen much dialogue about contact tracing beyond public health wonks.

I haven't paid much attention about it outside of California. It should be getting more attention because I think it's just as important if not more important than testing capacity.

Here's a couple interesting articles:

California is hoping to hire 20k and started an online training program. https://calmatters.org/health/2020/05/california-coronavirus-contact-tracing-training/

Some issues local health departments are facing- it's interesting that they're rationing contact tracing the same way testing had been rationed early on: https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/california-coronavirus-contact-tracing/

[sonofdaxjones]

Something to lighten eveyone's day

Hardcore Lib downloads on Bill Gates.   Note:  Not an anit-vaxer at all, quite the opposite, but I might be convinced to become an anti GatesVax'er. 

Then again, for some of the useful idiots on here, anything the TechnoOligarchs say is the truth . . . sad.

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/government-corruption/gates-globalist-vaccine-agenda-a-win-win-for-pharma-and-mandatory-vaccination/

Kind of weird that a guy who made billions on half-baked virus ridden products is such a big virus guy.

The thing is sys, you have a LARGE MAGA population that is anti-mask, anti-virus, anti-vax, etc. These are the people that will continue to spread this. They are the ones bitching about the economy opening up. Yet they are gonna be the reason we open up slower. It’s so rough ridin' stupid.

The most hardcore anti-vaxer in the country is the most hardcore Useful Idiot Lib you can find, and he's backed by a legion of Useful Idiot Libs, including tons of so called progressives in Hollywood.;

Well who is it?

Robert F Kennedy Jr

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2019/05/08/he-is-wrong-robert-f-kennedy-jrs-family-calls-him-out-anti-vax-conspiracy-theories/

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has long faced condemnation for spreading conspiracy theories about vaccines causing autism, a claim debunked by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the American Academy of Pediatrics and many other leading health and science organizations around the world.

Say ChinStalker, please tell me just how far "widespread criticism" extends.    I suspect it only extends to a select group of self proclaimed "intelligencia" and by no means touches the legions of Useful Idiots, on top of MAGA's who are anti-vaxers.

But that's just a super rough ridin' weird post right now, from a super rough ridin' weirdo.

[star seed 7]

Something to lighten eveyone's day

Hardcore Lib downloads on Bill Gates.   Note:  Not an anit-vaxer at all, quite the opposite, but I might be convinced to become an anti GatesVax'er. 

Then again, for some of the useful idiots on here, anything the TechnoOligarchs say is the truth . . . sad.

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/government-corruption/gates-globalist-vaccine-agenda-a-win-win-for-pharma-and-mandatory-vaccination/

Kind of weird that a guy who made billions on half-baked virus ridden products is such a big virus guy.

The thing is sys, you have a LARGE MAGA population that is anti-mask, anti-virus, anti-vax, etc. These are the people that will continue to spread this. They are the ones bitching about the economy opening up. Yet they are gonna be the reason we open up slower. It’s so rough ridin' stupid.

The most hardcore anti-vaxer in the country is the most hardcore Useful Idiot Lib you can find, and he's backed by a legion of Useful Idiot Libs, including tons of so called progressives in Hollywood.;

Well who is it?

Robert F Kennedy Jr

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2019/05/08/he-is-wrong-robert-f-kennedy-jrs-family-calls-him-out-anti-vax-conspiracy-theories/

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has long faced condemnation for spreading conspiracy theories about vaccines causing autism, a claim debunked by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the American Academy of Pediatrics and many other leading health and science organizations around the world.

Haha. Do you think in daxderpland that they think since the ghost of jfkjr sends them hidden messenges that rfkjr must obviously be a big player in libderpland?