Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread (Read 1545956 times)

michigancat · « **Reply #4525 on:** April 17, 2020, 02:37:37 PM »

Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:28:57 PM

They may be way less clueless, but they're still not very good in their own right

what's the evidence of this? Cuomo's un-cited ICU projection from March 23? I mentioned that the New York's peak ICU usage was within the range of the IMHE projections on March 25. That seems pretty good without knowing exactly how effective social distancing would be.

sonofdaxjones · « **Reply #4526 on:** April 17, 2020, 02:51:30 PM »

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080380/coronavirus-outbreak-may-have-started-september-say-british

Researchers investigating the virus’ origin analysed a large number of strains from around the world and calculated that the initial outbreak occurred in a window between September 13 and December 7.
“The virus may have mutated into its final ‘human-efficient’ form months ago, but stayed inside a bat or other animal or even human for several months without infecting other individuals,” University of Cambridge geneticist Peter Forster said on Thursday.
“Then, it started infecting and spreading among humans between September 13 and December 7, generating the network we present in [the journal] Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [PNAS].”

Bqqkie Pimp · « **Reply #4527 on:** April 17, 2020, 02:53:40 PM »

Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:31:42 PM

Quote from: Bqqkie Pimp on April 17, 2020, 02:20:10 PM
This is worth tracking...

https://twitter.com/LotusOak2/status/1251043604728029184
That video is over two weeks old, Bqqkie.

Exactly... there is A LOT of good info out there that will bubble to the surface over the next 30-60 days.

It should come as no surprise that there are A LOT of independent reporters doing FAR better work than the "journalists" that look pretty enough for Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, etc to put on TV.

Its sort of fun watching folks wake up to the fact that major media outlets are lying their asses off to everyone on a daily basis.

DQ12 · « **Reply #4528 on:** April 17, 2020, 02:55:43 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on April 17, 2020, 02:37:37 PM

Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:28:57 PM
They may be way less clueless, but they're still not very good in their own right

what's the evidence of this? Cuomo's un-cited ICU projection from March 23? I mentioned that the New York's peak ICU usage was within the range of the IMHE projections on March 25. That seems pretty good without knowing exactly how effective social distancing would be.

what's the evidence? the evidence is that Cuomo was demanding 8x as many ICU beds as he actually needed and then blamed the error on the CDC's projection. either (1) he was lying about the data/projection he was relying on; (2) he (and his cabinet) were clueless about how to meaningfully act on the projection and just don't know it don't want to say that; or (3) the projection was off.

I assumed number 3 because that's what he implied in the tweet you shared. But I guess the first two are possible as well.

regardless, adding/staffing 40,000 ICU beds can't be written off as some "better to be safe than sorry" thing when we are (or could be) dealing with staffing and supply issues in other parts of the country. whatever led to that demand (whether it was an unreliable projection or his/his cabinet's incompetent interpretation) is a failure. goal 4 improve every day as a person, player, and covid 19 actor.

michigancat · « **Reply #4529 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:03:27 PM »

Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:55:43 PM

Quote from: michigancat on April 17, 2020, 02:37:37 PM
Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:28:57 PM
They may be way less clueless, but they're still not very good in their own right

what's the evidence of this? Cuomo's un-cited ICU projection from March 23? I mentioned that the New York's peak ICU usage was within the range of the IMHE projections on March 25. That seems pretty good without knowing exactly how effective social distancing would be.
what's the evidence? the evidence is that Cuomo was demanding 8x as many ICU beds as he actually needed.

that's not evidence that the models aren't good

Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:55:43 PM

regardless, adding/staffing 40,000 ICU beds can't be written off as some "better to be safe than sorry" thing when we are (or could be) dealing with staffing and supply issues in other parts of the country.

yeah that definitely happened. You don't think they actually added 40,000 ICU beds, do you?

FWIW, I think Cuomo deserves plenty of criticism but I think it's dumb to imply models from epidemiologists and data scientists shouldn't be considered because of his mistakes.

michigancat · « **Reply #4530 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:29:12 PM »

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1251241932157857792

DQ12 · « **Reply #4531 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:29:55 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on April 17, 2020, 03:03:27 PM

yeah that definitely happened. You don't think they actually added 40,000 ICU beds, do you?

Lol no. But that’s what Cuomo was demanding.

star seed 7 · « **Reply #4532 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:34:34 PM »

The biggest reason initial models were "wrong" is they did not expect Americans would actually comply with social distancing and lockdowns, particularly in the south. It's a bit of an interesting hypothetical, but considering how late the secsecsec came around to this being a serious issue, how dire would it have gotten if Hillary or Obama was president?

chum1 · « **Reply #4533 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:39:52 PM »

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1251221795123998720

sonofdaxjones · « **Reply #4534 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:40:49 PM »

The biggest violators of social distancing in the South were college kids from the North.

Dugout DickStone · « **Reply #4535 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:47:17 PM »

Young men from the north, travel to south and dunk all over inferior gene pool southerners leaving thousands dead

We’ve heard before?

mocat · « **Reply #4536 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:50:55 PM »

dax has also claimed the reason the south is so obese is that it's mostly full of yankee transplants

ChiComCat · « **Reply #4537 on:** April 17, 2020, 03:56:29 PM »

Gyms seem like they should be opened in the absolute last phase

Dugout DickStone · « **Reply #4538 on:** April 17, 2020, 04:02:05 PM »

Quote from: mocat on April 17, 2020, 03:50:55 PM

dax has also claimed the reason the south is so obese is that it's mostly full of yankee transplants

He doesn’t say crap that dumb

sonofdaxjones · « **Reply #4539 on:** April 17, 2020, 04:06:12 PM »

Residents of net egress states . . . SMDH

steve dave · « **Reply #4540 on:** April 17, 2020, 04:09:48 PM »

net egress, lmao

CHONGS · « **Reply #4541 on:** April 17, 2020, 04:19:45 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on April 17, 2020, 02:37:37 PM

Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:28:57 PM
They may be way less clueless, but they're still not very good in their own right

what's the evidence of this? Cuomo's un-cited ICU projection from March 23? I mentioned that the New York's peak ICU usage was within the range of the IMHE projections on March 25. That seems pretty good without knowing exactly how effective social distancing would be.

This is where DQ is getting his evidence.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/does-the-king-of-the-covid-19-contrarians-have-a-case

michigancat · « **Reply #4542 on:** April 17, 2020, 04:31:18 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on April 17, 2020, 04:19:45 PM

Quote from: michigancat on April 17, 2020, 02:37:37 PM
Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:28:57 PM
They may be way less clueless, but they're still not very good in their own right

what's the evidence of this? Cuomo's un-cited ICU projection from March 23? I mentioned that the New York's peak ICU usage was within the range of the IMHE projections on March 25. That seems pretty good without knowing exactly how effective social distancing would be.
This is where DQ is getting his evidence.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/does-the-king-of-the-covid-19-contrarians-have-a-case

ah. that dude seems like he would have a quillette byline (and DQ has been posting like he's auditioning for one)

Phil Titola · « **Reply #4543 on:** April 17, 2020, 04:53:50 PM »

Quote from: steve dave on April 17, 2020, 04:09:48 PM

net egress, lmao

It's a very beta small timey stat. LOL OMG NY and Cali are egress states, what a bunch of losers.

DQ12 · « **Reply #4544 on:** April 17, 2020, 05:12:11 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on April 17, 2020, 04:19:45 PM

Quote from: michigancat on April 17, 2020, 02:37:37 PM
Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 02:28:57 PM
They may be way less clueless, but they're still not very good in their own right

what's the evidence of this? Cuomo's un-cited ICU projection from March 23? I mentioned that the New York's peak ICU usage was within the range of the IMHE projections on March 25. That seems pretty good without knowing exactly how effective social distancing would be.
This is where DQ is getting his evidence.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04/does-the-king-of-the-covid-19-contrarians-have-a-case

Do not know who that guy is.

Maybe you guys are right and it isn't a problem that Cuomo thought NY needed 8x more beds than they needed. I may be blowing this out of proportion. Just seems like if the projections are that wrong or officials are interpreting them that incorrectly, either way it's a problem.

CHONGS · « **Reply #4545 on:** April 17, 2020, 05:22:25 PM »

I mean you posted a tweet from him...

michigancat · « **Reply #4546 on:** April 17, 2020, 05:34:03 PM »

Quote from: DQ12 on April 17, 2020, 05:12:11 PM

Maybe you guys are right and it isn't a problem that Cuomo thought NY needed 8x more beds than they needed. I may be blowing this out of proportion. Just seems like if the projections are that wrong or officials are interpreting them that incorrectly, either way it's a problem.

I think you're right to question and find faults with how Cuomo used a peak ICU projection on March 23, and I think we should all learn from it. I don't think it's a good reason to ignore science or assume you or know just as much as epidemiologists and data scientists when it comes to predicting future health care needs.

steve dave · « **Reply #4547 on:** April 17, 2020, 05:35:52 PM »

Cringe city USA population that guy

Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) Tweeted:
Times Square, April 17, 2020. War is Peace. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength. https://t.co/rYrA88jY6m https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1251207697422262273

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

DQ12 · « **Reply #4548 on:** April 17, 2020, 05:36:36 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on April 17, 2020, 05:22:25 PM

I mean you posted a tweet from him...

Ah - impressive memory. I forgot. Yeah, a week and a half ago I thought he had a good point about the IHME model.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1247010068148731904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1247010068148731904&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fgoemaw.com%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Dprofile%3Bu%3D51%3Barea%3Dshowposts%3Bstart%3D50

sonofdaxjones · « **Reply #4549 on:** April 17, 2020, 05:40:55 PM »

Quote from: Phil Titola on April 17, 2020, 04:53:50 PM

Quote from: steve dave on April 17, 2020, 04:09:48 PM
net egress, lmao

It's a very beta small timey stat. LOL OMG NY and Cali are egress states, what a bunch of losers.

Oh Super Slow Dug, you try so very very hard.