Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1064797 times)

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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3250 on: April 04, 2020, 05:37:45 PM »
If you need any sort of surgery for something non-life threatening, you probably aren't getting it this year.

Offline kim carnes

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3251 on: April 04, 2020, 05:38:14 PM »
Yeah, most of them are about to lose their offices and go to corporate dentistry. Only reason why I feel good/bad about this when it’s gone.

Well it’s good to hear you’re excited about the fact that dental corporations will be taking a chunk off the top of all of our future dental visits as a result of this pandemic.  Silver lining. 

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3252 on: April 04, 2020, 05:48:48 PM »
If you need any sort of surgery for something non-life threatening, you probably aren't getting it this year.

It will be good practice for M4A
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Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3253 on: April 04, 2020, 05:52:10 PM »
Yeah, most of them are about to lose their offices and go to corporate dentistry. Only reason why I feel good/bad about this when it’s gone.

Well it’s good to hear you’re excited about the fact that dental corporations will be taking a chunk off the top of all of our future dental visits as a result of this pandemic.  Silver lining.
I believe that you take in, what you want to take in from this response. If you’re still working currently, you’re probably benefiting from someone’s misery. I might not be back to work until 2021, but thanks for stopping by for your heat check.

Offline sys

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"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3255 on: April 04, 2020, 06:01:10 PM »
If you’re still working currently, you’re probably benefiting from someone’s misery.

other than maybe medical supply chain peeps, i don't think anyone is benefiting from our collective misery.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3256 on: April 04, 2020, 06:02:58 PM »
even the rough ridin' virus doesn't have the capacity to revel in its own spread.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3257 on: April 04, 2020, 06:20:52 PM »
Medical supplies, insurance, grocery stores, Alcohol, toilet paper, etc. I use to work in radio advertising. I look around at every business and do supply/demand of what they have to offer. You’re too smart to negate this.
even the rough ridin' virus doesn't have the capacity to revel in its own spread.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3258 on: April 04, 2020, 06:30:32 PM »
Would post in good news/funny thread but not very family blogy


https://twitter.com/radtoria/status/1246251800082018305
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline Spracne

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3259 on: April 04, 2020, 06:34:17 PM »
Medical supplies, insurance, grocery stores, Alcohol, toilet paper, etc. I use to work in radio advertising. I look around at every business and do supply/demand of what they have to offer. You’re too smart to negate this.
even the rough ridin' virus doesn't have the capacity to revel in its own spread.

Most people don't work in PPE manufacturing, health insurance (currently slated to take a bath), grocery stores, alcohol, or toilet paper. Everything is connected, and there is the potential for a domino effect, to put it mildly. Everyone is justly concerned.

For the record, the client's I've spoken to are very concerned about what's happening and are expecting a short-term hit. But, at least so far, they seem confident that in a year they can get back to relative business as usual.

As far as I can tell, i'm not benefiting from anyone's misery. At least, no more than usual.

Keep the faith, Wacky. You will make it through this. We all will (- ~1% of the infected).

Offline Spracne

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3260 on: April 04, 2020, 06:35:26 PM »
Would post in good news/funny thread but not very family blogy


https://twitter.com/radtoria/status/1246251800082018305

Lol. I appreciate this. Now I don't have to worry about whether to read the books.

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3261 on: April 04, 2020, 06:38:32 PM »
You know I’m always a glass half full kind of guy, just having a hard time doing it these days, I appreciate your breakdown. That was helpful.

Offline sys

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3262 on: April 04, 2020, 06:39:41 PM »
as industries - insurances are getting killed, like this is disastrous for them (mostly, not all - like auto insurance is going to have a really good quarter or two, but then after that who knows but probably not great).  toilet paper manufacturers - i think based on that link michigan put up this is actually pretty bad for them.  but regardless, there aren't like many exclusive toilet paper makers, they all make a ton of different paper products and demand is mostly down for most of them.  alcohol - no idea, but probably down on net?  like people talk a lot about quarantine drinking but most people are largely social drinkers.  maybe demand for industrial alcohol makes up for some of that, but there's a giant difference between selling your artisan whisky for $50 a bottle and selling 95% etoh for a $1.50 a gallon.

grocery stores i dunno.  revenues are presumably likely up but so are costs.  whole thing is likely pretty much a giant headache with marginal change pos or negative, but i don't really know.


even in those industries that maybe are benefiting, that doesn't likely filter to most employees.  don't think grocery store workers struggling to keep crap stocked, disinfect surfaces non stop and tell eeryone who comes into the store to stop touching stuff are overjoyed to maybe get a couple dollars/hr more (if lucky) in exchange for managing daily chaos and an increased chance to die.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3263 on: April 04, 2020, 07:15:08 PM »
Percent Increase in New Coronavirus Cases Last 7 Days:

April 4 - 12.41%
April 3 - 13.76
April 2 - 13.42%
April 1 - 14.15%
March 30 - 15.05%
March 29 - 15.44%
March 28 - 17.62%

Percent Increase in Coronavirus Deaths Last 7 Days:

April 4 - 19.42%
April 3 - 20.37
April 2 - 23.06%
April 1 - 25.47%
March 30 - 27.46%
March 29 - 23.56%
March 28 - 28.43%

Percentages are based off COVID Tracking Project numbers.

Everything is at least headed in the right direction.  Still on track to double cases within a week and deaths in about 4 days.

Offline DaBigTrain

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"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f


Offline LickNeckey

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3266 on: April 04, 2020, 07:44:33 PM »
I think people need Dentists, but you make a great point. I just needed to vent today, because I’m going crazy @ home and can’t provide right now. I’m being selfish and self soothing about this crap. My mom is like one of the 5% of people who defeated pancreatic cancer and I need her to be safe, so if that’s what it takes, I’m game.

I get it but you have a young kid right?

You will probably never again have an opportunity like this to spend with him and your wife.  I know it's corny but he doesn't care about your ability to provide right now, he is just happy to see his dad. 

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3267 on: April 04, 2020, 08:37:47 PM »
Yes and I love my family, but we were very poor growing up. I just want to give him a different life. I think that’s why I’m super sad right now. I was heading towards something and I’m scared I won’t get there after this. I’m having a blast with him. I just want to make him proud and safe. When I made a travel team in baseball because I was decent (at 13), another family had to take me over as theirs and pay my funds so I could stay on the team, while my dad worked weekends to make ends meat. I want to provide and be there as much as I can. I know that’s a small case study, but it’s stuff I think about.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3268 on: April 04, 2020, 08:43:41 PM »
I shitload of key system run on cobol and run quite well. I remember having to learn it back on campus and everybody was loling about it way back then and the professor was like a shitload of systems still run this and you will need it.  Not sure he knew he would be right in 2020 though.

Offline treysolid

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3269 on: April 04, 2020, 08:47:50 PM »
Percent Increase in New Coronavirus Cases Last 7 Days:

April 4 - 12.41%
April 3 - 13.76
April 2 - 13.42%
April 1 - 14.15%
March 30 - 15.05%
March 29 - 15.44%
March 28 - 17.62%

Percent Increase in Coronavirus Deaths Last 7 Days:

April 4 - 19.42%
April 3 - 20.37
April 2 - 23.06%
April 1 - 25.47%
March 30 - 27.46%
March 29 - 23.56%
March 28 - 28.43%

Percentages are based off COVID Tracking Project numbers.

Everything is at least headed in the right direction.  Still on track to double cases within a week and deaths in about 4 days.

Is that day over day increase? Because 12% of 113,000 is more new cases than 13% of 100,000....

Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3270 on: April 04, 2020, 08:57:12 PM »
Percent Increase in New Coronavirus Cases Last 7 Days:

April 4 - 12.41%
April 3 - 13.76
April 2 - 13.42%
April 1 - 14.15%
March 30 - 15.05%
March 29 - 15.44%
March 28 - 17.62%

Percent Increase in Coronavirus Deaths Last 7 Days:

April 4 - 19.42%
April 3 - 20.37
April 2 - 23.06%
April 1 - 25.47%
March 30 - 27.46%
March 29 - 23.56%
March 28 - 28.43%

Percentages are based off COVID Tracking Project numbers.

Everything is at least headed in the right direction.  Still on track to double cases within a week and deaths in about 4 days.

Is that day over day increase? Because 12% of 113,000 is more new cases than 13% of 100,000....

Yes, it is day-over-day increase.  Cases are still increasing, and increasing by more than the day before on an absolute basis.  However, it is the beginning of the logarithmic curve starting to flatten.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3271 on: April 04, 2020, 08:59:45 PM »
I am open to being wrong, but I think watching the testing results is a fool's errand. I think the bodies (ICU and caskets) are the only metric that you can look at with any confidence, and there are problems there too but it has much fewer unknowns.

Offline sys

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3272 on: April 04, 2020, 09:04:09 PM »
Is that day over day increase? Because 12% of 113,000 is more new cases than 13% of 100,000....

yeah, i don't know why people use those metrics.  obviously misleading/difficult to interpret.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3273 on: April 04, 2020, 09:18:25 PM »
Is that day over day increase? Because 12% of 113,000 is more new cases than 13% of 100,000....

yeah, i don't know why people use those metrics.  obviously misleading/difficult to interpret.

People use metrics like that because your percent growth is what determines things like doubling time.  On a logarthmic scale, such as the graph below, the slope is getting less and less steep. As I said earlier, it is the beginning of the slowing of the spread.

As the percentage keeps declining the exponential growth is getting slower and slower.  Eventually, as the percentages keep getting smaller, the absolute number of day-to-day increase will peak.  Once that hits, the 7-day rolling average of new cases will start to decline.  It won't happen the day that occurs, but will within 7 days.

« Last Edit: April 04, 2020, 09:23:00 PM by Justwin »

Offline sys

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #3274 on: April 04, 2020, 09:53:50 PM »
Is that day over day increase? Because 12% of 113,000 is more new cases than 13% of 100,000....

yeah, i don't know why people use those metrics.  obviously misleading/difficult to interpret.

People use metrics like that because your percent growth is what determines things like doubling time.  On a logarthmic scale, such as the graph below, the slope is getting less and less steep. As I said earlier, it is the beginning of the slowing of the spread.

As the percentage keeps declining the exponential growth is getting slower and slower.  Eventually, as the percentages keep getting smaller, the absolute number of day-to-day increase will peak.  Once that hits, the 7-day rolling average of new cases will start to decline.  It won't happen the day that occurs, but will within 7 days.


"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."