CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[cfbandyman]

POS gonna POS

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1244069776781123586

[michigancat]

POS gonna POS

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1244069776781123586

If Maine requested 500k N95's and Florida requested 180k N95's I'm thinking MAYBE part of this story is how bad Florida is rough ridin' this up.

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1244053944554401800

[michigancat]

there is no generic "the math".  outcomes completely change based on how much humans interact with each other and china instituted a pretty complete shutdown in hubei province in late january.  their reported outcome is consistent with that.  aside from the fact that china isn't behind some iron curtain, we have all sorts of exogenous data (electricty use, traffic data, satellite, factory production, etc) to confirm that they do not have similar shutdowns in other provinces.

as treysolid said, we don't necessarily have a good way to distinguish between 3k dead in wuhan and 30k dead in wuhan, but we have very good data to say that they don't have widespread covid19 transmission across the country as we do in the united states.  maybe they will have in three months, but they don't today and haven't had since the virus emerged.

Sounds like Beijing did some pretty drastic measures as well, other places are mentioned in the article as well.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siminamistreanu/2020/03/27/beijing-has-defeated-coronavirus-what-it-was-like-living-in-the-locked-down-city-for-two-months/#74c0d58d179d

I interviewed a job candidate who was in Shenzhen this week and he said that they can't get into their apartment building without having their temperature taken, but they also can't LEAVE without getting it taken. That article does a good job highlighting what he described. They banned entry to foreigners because they saw most of the new cases were not community spread, they were brought in.

And sys is right, we do too much business with China for us to not have some sense of what's going on. I know people who were under lockdown after Chinese New Year for a while and factories that shut down, but they've been reopening this month. Like you can't fake factories building and shipping things.

[michigancat]

cool

https://twitter.com/NYTNational/status/1244091431742038017

[michigancat]

really good, really informative interview with trump's former fda head.  very impressive person.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coronavirus-one-on-one-with-scott-gottlieb/id1107777021?i=1000469725689

haven't listened but this is a good read. I don't know how we'll get to phase II any time soon

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1244251263686057985

[Dugout DickStone]

Some pretty good write ups available as to how the insurance companies are looking at this as a good chance to make more $$

[LickNeckey]

and yet pubs are currently steeling themselves to go to battle for our current healthcare system

[Phil Titola]

tl;dr - The Trump administration failed bigly

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster

[MakeItRain]

there is no generic "the math".  outcomes completely change based on how much humans interact with each other and china instituted a pretty complete shutdown in hubei province in late january.  their reported outcome is consistent with that.  aside from the fact that china isn't behind some iron curtain, we have all sorts of exogenous data (electricty use, traffic data, satellite, factory production, etc) to confirm that they do not have similar shutdowns in other provinces.

as treysolid said, we don't necessarily have a good way to distinguish between 3k dead in wuhan and 30k dead in wuhan, but we have very good data to say that they don't have widespread covid19 transmission across the country as we do in the united states.  maybe they will have in three months, but they don't today and haven't had since the virus emerged.

Sounds like Beijing did some pretty drastic measures as well, other places are mentioned in the article as well.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siminamistreanu/2020/03/27/beijing-has-defeated-coronavirus-what-it-was-like-living-in-the-locked-down-city-for-two-months/#74c0d58d179d

I interviewed a job candidate who was in Shenzhen this week and he said that they can't get into their apartment building without having their temperature taken, but they also can't LEAVE without getting it taken. That article does a good job highlighting what he described. They banned entry to foreigners because they saw most of the new cases were not community spread, they were brought in.

And sys is right, we do too much business with China for us to not have some sense of what's going on. I know people who were under lockdown after Chinese New Year for a while and factories that shut down, but they've been reopening this month. Like you can't fake factories building and shipping things.

https://time.com/5768230/wuhan-pneumonia-flu-crisis-china-government/

sys has also changed his argument, it started with this

if covid19 was out of control in china, we'd know.  all of the conspiracy theories re. china is mostly a reluctance to admit that east asian countries are handling this so much better than are european countries and the united states.

from Wapo
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/27/chinas-coronavirus-response-could-build-public-support-its-government/?outputType=amp
From Japan
https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d00550/when-top-down-doesn%E2%80%99t-work-china%E2%80%99s-failed-initial-response-to-covid-19.html
The diplomat
https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/can-chinas-covid-19-statistics-be-trusted/

Their testing levels can't be confirmed. I spent most of my time responding to this looking for their testing numbers and they simply aren't reporting them and what they have reported, which looking at a couple of sources ended over a month ago, doesn't reflect anything extensive
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing?wprov=sfla1

There was another report I read a couple of weeks ago that said their low numbers now are due to a lack of testing but I couldn't find that article.

We're they using the same bad tests within their country that they sent to North America and Europe?

There are so many questions about the timing of their response, how open they truly have been, and what they've done to mitigate the disease outside of essentially forcing people inside. Relying on temperature checks is completely ineffective given what we know about the number of people carrying who are asymptomatic and how long you can carry the virus.

[MakeItRain]

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1244253426717990917

[cfbandyman]

really good, really informative interview with trump's former fda head.  very impressive person.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coronavirus-one-on-one-with-scott-gottlieb/id1107777021?i=1000469725689

haven't listened but this is a good read. I don't know how we'll get to phase II any time soon

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1244251263686057985

Yeah, it's going to be a while, even if you look at Italy, they have been "struggling" to keep a sustained downward curve, they definitely have kept it sustained at level, but it's more consistently the same. That's the thing with a flattened bell curve, it'll be there for a while. In general I do think if we get ourselves to buy some time we can start to think about reopening, slowly, but that probably is a May-June timeframe, not mid-April.

[cfbandyman]

POS gonna POS

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1244069776781123586

If Maine requested 500k N95's and Florida requested 180k N95's I'm thinking MAYBE part of this story is how bad Florida is rough ridin' this up.

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1244053944554401800

Oh absolutely, they don't have any clue what they are getting themselves into

[michigancat]

really good, really informative interview with trump's former fda head.  very impressive person.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coronavirus-one-on-one-with-scott-gottlieb/id1107777021?i=1000469725689

Yes this was very good.

[catastrophe]

POS gonna POS

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1244069776781123586

If Maine requested 500k N95's and Florida requested 180k N95's I'm thinking MAYBE part of this story is how bad Florida is rough ridin' this up.

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1244053944554401800

Maybe politically motivated, but I can easily see an argument that the decisions are being made to minimize deaths, which means allocating more resources to at risk (elderly) populations.

[MakeItRain]

POS gonna POS

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1244069776781123586

If Maine requested 500k N95's and Florida requested 180k N95's I'm thinking MAYBE part of this story is how bad Florida is rough ridin' this up.

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1244053944554401800

Maybe politically motivated, but I can easily see an argument that the decisions are being made to minimize deaths, which means allocating more resources to at risk (elderly) populations.

That wouldn't make much sense given that most of the supplies being hoarded in Florida is ppe for health care workers and not ventilators.

I actually thought that the states bidding for their own needs and not having the federal government involved was a good idea, still do, but I didn't account for trump being a egotistical sociopath who picks winners and losers based on who kisses his ass and ec votes.

[michigancat]

Letting the states just fight it out for PPE and vents on the free market is a terrible idea

[MakeItRain]

It's how our government is structured to run though. There is no way for our federal government to appease 57 different states and territories. States say they want that then would waste valuable time angling for what they want, gumming up an already despicable bureaucracy, and almost certainly the federal government would end up getting sued.

[DaBigTrain]

I thought Putin had this under control!?


https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1244313529110405120

[michigancat]

It's how our government is structured to run though. There is no way for our federal government to appease 57 different states and territories. States say they want that then would waste valuable time angling for what they want, gumming up an already despicable bureaucracy, and almost certainly the federal government would end up getting sued.

We're definitely not structured perfectly for this but I think you have to try. How will places like Louisiana compete with New York for ventilators when Cuomo is on CNN every day telling equipment suppliers they'll pay anything for as many as they can produce? What happens when California secures orders for their PPE needs before Kansas gets hit and there's no manufacturing capacity available for Kansas? Already I know there are vastly different levels of PPE available just at different hospitals in the Bay Area. There's just a lot of reasons why this can get very ugly and could be made less ugly if the federal government steps in.

[Dugout DickStone]

Has anyone else encountered the incel talking point that when the media reports new infection and death toll numbers they are "celebrating" and are just out to get Trump and they should stop? 

It is pretty fringe but it's out there.

[MakeItRain]

It's how our government is structured to run though. There is no way for our federal government to appease 57 different states and territories. States say they want that then would waste valuable time angling for what they want, gumming up an already despicable bureaucracy, and almost certainly the federal government would end up getting sued.

We're definitely not structured perfectly for this but I think you have to try. How will places like Louisiana compete with New York for ventilators when Cuomo is on CNN every day telling equipment suppliers they'll pay anything for as many as they can produce? What happens when California secures orders for their PPE needs before Kansas gets hit and there's no manufacturing capacity available for Kansas? Already I know there are vastly different levels of PPE available just at different hospitals in the Bay Area. There's just a lot of reasons why this can get very ugly and could be made less ugly if the federal government steps in.

I agree with you, it's just another one of those structural issues this country has that makes dealing with something like this much more complicated than essentially everywhere else in the world. Also another thing that socialized medicine could help with, but I digress. If a president wanted the government to handle all of the distribution, how would they get the product? Would they first take over all the private companies manufacturing all of the ppe and ventilators?

[michigancat]

Has anyone else encountered the incel talking point that when the media reports new infection and death toll numbers they are "celebrating" and are just out to get Trump and they should stop? 

It is pretty fringe but it's out there.

Marco Rubio said something like that and it's been making the rounds on Twitter

[MakeItRain]

Has anyone else encountered the incel talking point that when the media reports new infection and death toll numbers they are "celebrating" and are just out to get Trump and they should stop? 

It is pretty fringe but it's out there.

Marco Rubio said something like that and it's been making the rounds on Twitter

Little Marco putting his cape and clown makeup on for trump is hilarious, no self-respect.

[michigancat]

It's how our government is structured to run though. There is no way for our federal government to appease 57 different states and territories. States say they want that then would waste valuable time angling for what they want, gumming up an already despicable bureaucracy, and almost certainly the federal government would end up getting sued.

We're definitely not structured perfectly for this but I think you have to try. How will places like Louisiana compete with New York for ventilators when Cuomo is on CNN every day telling equipment suppliers they'll pay anything for as many as they can produce? What happens when California secures orders for their PPE needs before Kansas gets hit and there's no manufacturing capacity available for Kansas? Already I know there are vastly different levels of PPE available just at different hospitals in the Bay Area. There's just a lot of reasons why this can get very ugly and could be made less ugly if the federal government steps in.

I agree with you, it's just another one of those structural issues this country has that makes dealing with something like this much more complicated than essentially everywhere else in the world. Also another thing that socialized medicine could help with, but I digress. If a president wanted the government to handle all of the distribution, how would they get the product? Would they first take over all the private companies manufacturing all of the ppe and ventilators?

Yeah, socialized medicine would help a ton. Like different hospitals just within the Bay Area have vastly different PPE inventory, which is pretty mumped up.

I don't know exactly how government distribution would work because I'm not intimately familiar with those supply chains. I think you would want all existing manufacturers to continue to manage production but have the government pause all existing contracts/shipments and distribute nationally based on need. Maybe it's as simple as negotiating with distributors to pause existing orders and reallocate. I'm guessing there's some sort of plan for this already, it just hasn't been put into action..

[michigancat]

Oh yeah I saw it from this clown, too

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1243968892130734080