Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1549204 times)

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Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2025 on: March 22, 2020, 08:50:27 AM »
It's also very not funny because the guy was a moron whose code was amplified by other morons looking for any sort of data that supported what they wanted to believe which is pretty dangerous
There’s a reason I reacted so violently to KSUW posting it to begin with. Glad we have universal confirmation that I reacted appropriately.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

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Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2027 on: March 22, 2020, 09:13:37 AM »
I was hospitalized about 5 times growing up for asthma issues. usually just woke up in the middle of the night and couldn't breath. my son is 6 and has had two ambulance trips to the ER with overnight hospital stays for asthma attacks. Usually takes a couple days to get his oxygen levels back to normal and will be on constant albuterol/oxygen mix for those days before we can leave the hospital. Mine didn't seem to be caused by any certain thing but his has always been viral. he'll pop a fever and all of a sudden just can't breath. he's on an inhaled steroid twice a day and this is nightmare fuel for me. The only thing that makes me feel better is that it sounds like no children have died so far?

SD, since we have entered into the sharing family stress portion of this journey, here is mine.

My 60yr old father called me this week. We have a strange relationship and often go long stretchs without communicating with each other, it had been 3 or 4 months this time. Anyway, he told me he had a courtesy call from his doctor that said his respiratory problems put him at a very high risk should he get rona (some asthma thing, I've never really asked about it). I urged him to just ride it out at the hobby farm, but he's still going to his small office and living with his special lady friend who works for the state and is still going to work too. The next day he emailed me an updated will to keep as a back up and it hit me very hard (xpost crying at work thread). I still think of my parents as being fairly young, I'm not ready for this stuff.
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Offline TheHamburglar

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2028 on: March 22, 2020, 09:14:26 AM »
What percent of people come off a ventilator. My personal experience is that someone goes on a vent as they are deteriorating then die with the vent. Do people come off vents regularly?
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Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2029 on: March 22, 2020, 09:20:29 AM »
What percent of people come off a ventilator. My personal experience is that someone goes on a vent as they are deteriorating then die with the vent. Do people come off vents regularly?
Based on this summary it looks like there's a decent rate of weaning off ventilators depending on age.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8404197/


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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2030 on: March 22, 2020, 09:21:01 AM »


I was hospitalized about 5 times growing up for asthma issues. usually just woke up in the middle of the night and couldn't breath. my son is 6 and has had two ambulance trips to the ER with overnight hospital stays for asthma attacks. Usually takes a couple days to get his oxygen levels back to normal and will be on constant albuterol/oxygen mix for those days before we can leave the hospital. Mine didn't seem to be caused by any certain thing but his has always been viral. he'll pop a fever and all of a sudden just can't breath. he's on an inhaled steroid twice a day and this is nightmare fuel for me. The only thing that makes me feel better is that it sounds like no children have died so far?

SD, since we have entered into the sharing family stress portion of this journey, here is mine.

My 60yr old father called me this week. We have a strange relationship and often go long stretchs without communicating with each other, it had been 3 or 4 months this time. Anyway, he told me he had a courtesy call from his doctor that said his respiratory problems put him at a very high risk should he get rona (some asthma thing, I've never really asked about it). I urged him to just ride it out at the hobby farm, but he's still going to his small office and living with his special lady friend who works for the state and is still going to work too. The next day he emailed me an updated will to keep as a back up and it hit me very hard (xpost crying at work thread). I still think of my parents as being fairly young, I'm not ready for this stuff.

Sorry bud.

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2031 on: March 22, 2020, 09:32:06 AM »
It's eye opening that so many of you are posting ITT about "the dangers of this virus" :rolleyes: and completely ignoring the real victims here - the hard working folks who got their ski trip cut short. You are all completely stupid. Keep up the great work, ksuw, you're doing amazing

Offline chum1

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2032 on: March 22, 2020, 09:37:17 AM »
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Literally. It is the government hysteria over the virus that is growing exponentially - not the virus.

oh no, the medium piece ksuw posted a link to got taken down for being awful  :cry:

Literally a preplanned return to drop a major truth bomb on the tinfoil hat brigade.

I’ll check back in with the tinfoil hat brigade in a couple a days. See ya.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2033 on: March 22, 2020, 09:52:42 AM »
It’s pretty terrifying that such a huge portion of our populace was lapping up the presidents and Fox news “liberal hoax” and “deep state” talking points. And obviously there are STILL a huge number of MAGAs out there that are considering this thing paranoia, overreaction, straight up fake, etc. even after Fox and the Presidents late pivot to it actually being a big rough ridin' deal. KSU-W is certainly not alone. Apparently a majority of my home town is as well based on strictly anecdotal Facebook data. Probably just a vocal MAGA minority but very discouraging either way.


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Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2034 on: March 22, 2020, 09:53:06 AM »
It's eye opening that so many of you are posting ITT about "the dangers of this virus" :rolleyes: and completely ignoring the real victims here - the hard working folks who got their ski trip cut short. You are all completely stupid. Keep up the great work, ksuw, you're doing amazing

I think this is a bit overstated, but is more than just people getting their ski trip cut short.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-21/coronavirus-school-closures-will-hurt-kids-and-worsen-inequality

Quote
So let me venture a prediction. One long-term effect of the Covid-19 pandemic will be to leave many children behind, perhaps permanently limiting their opportunities in life. At the same time, the disruption will barely affect others and even let a few pull ahead. In short, it will exacerbate inequality.

Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2035 on: March 22, 2020, 10:03:11 AM »
It’s pretty terrifying that such a huge portion of our populace was lapping up the presidents and Fox news “liberal hoax” and “deep state” talking points. And obviously there are STILL a huge number of MAGAs out there that are considering this thing paranoia, overreaction, straight up fake, etc. even after Fox and the Presidents late pivot to it actually being a big rough ridin' deal. KSU-W is certainly not alone. Apparently a majority of my home town is as well based on strictly anecdotal Facebook data. Probably just a vocal MAGA minority but very discouraging either way.


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There's a big difference between saying this is a hoax and wondering if the draconian measures are worth it.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

There is plenty that is not perfect about his model (just like all of the models that others have been posting), but the issue still remains that we are self-inflicting a lot of harm with a lot of uncertainty whether or not the harm is worth it.

Earlier in this thread catastrophe stated that what we are doing would not be worth it if the deaths were less than the seasonal flu.  That's an interesting position to take, but I'll give him credit for taking a position.  Regardless, it illustrates that saving human lives is not the end all be all when it comes to decision making.  We could implement the harsh measures we are implementing now and save more lives from the flu every year.  However, we don't and we end up sentencing more people to death.  The only thing that people disagree on then, is how many lives (and I would say it's QALYs vs lives) make different actions worth the costs.


Offline steve dave

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2036 on: March 22, 2020, 10:15:33 AM »
good gathering of data points showing objectively that Fox News is made by idiots, exclusively for the consumption of somehow bigger idiots

https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1241513763045597194

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2037 on: March 22, 2020, 10:21:24 AM »
It’s pretty terrifying that such a huge portion of our populace was lapping up the presidents and Fox news “liberal hoax” and “deep state” talking points. And obviously there are STILL a huge number of MAGAs out there that are considering this thing paranoia, overreaction, straight up fake, etc. even after Fox and the Presidents late pivot to it actually being a big rough ridin' deal. KSU-W is certainly not alone. Apparently a majority of my home town is as well based on strictly anecdotal Facebook data. Probably just a vocal MAGA minority but very discouraging either way.


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There's a big difference between saying this is a hoax and wondering if the draconian measures are worth it.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

There is plenty that is not perfect about his model (just like all of the models that others have been posting), but the issue still remains that we are self-inflicting a lot of harm with a lot of uncertainty whether or not the harm is worth it.

Earlier in this thread catastrophe stated that what we are doing would not be worth it if the deaths were less than the seasonal flu.  That's an interesting position to take, but I'll give him credit for taking a position.  Regardless, it illustrates that saving human lives is not the end all be all when it comes to decision making.  We could implement the harsh measures we are implementing now and save more lives from the flu every year.  However, we don't and we end up sentencing more people to death.  The only thing that people disagree on then, is how many lives (and I would say it's QALYs vs lives) make different actions worth the costs.

I think you and I (and everyone else on the planet) just have different $ value for human life. I think it's certainly a conversation worth having. I appreciate it much more than pseudo science bullshit.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2038 on: March 22, 2020, 10:25:55 AM »
It’s pretty terrifying that such a huge portion of our populace was lapping up the presidents and Fox news “liberal hoax” and “deep state” talking points. And obviously there are STILL a huge number of MAGAs out there that are considering this thing paranoia, overreaction, straight up fake, etc. even after Fox and the Presidents late pivot to it actually being a big rough ridin' deal. KSU-W is certainly not alone. Apparently a majority of my home town is as well based on strictly anecdotal Facebook data. Probably just a vocal MAGA minority but very discouraging either way.


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There's a big difference between saying this is a hoax and wondering if the draconian measures are worth it.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

There is plenty that is not perfect about his model (just like all of the models that others have been posting), but the issue still remains that we are self-inflicting a lot of harm with a lot of uncertainty whether or not the harm is worth it.

Earlier in this thread catastrophe stated that what we are doing would not be worth it if the deaths were less than the seasonal flu.  That's an interesting position to take, but I'll give him credit for taking a position.  Regardless, it illustrates that saving human lives is not the end all be all when it comes to decision making.  We could implement the harsh measures we are implementing now and save more lives from the flu every year.  However, we don't and we end up sentencing more people to death.  The only thing that people disagree on then, is how many lives (and I would say it's QALYs vs lives) make different actions worth the costs.
Welcome back, JustAskingQuestions. I don’t think you ever weighed in on what projected death total would justify the “self inflicted harm” we’re doing right now. Thanks.

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Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2040 on: March 22, 2020, 10:32:29 AM »
It’s pretty terrifying that such a huge portion of our populace was lapping up the presidents and Fox news “liberal hoax” and “deep state” talking points. And obviously there are STILL a huge number of MAGAs out there that are considering this thing paranoia, overreaction, straight up fake, etc. even after Fox and the Presidents late pivot to it actually being a big rough ridin' deal. KSU-W is certainly not alone. Apparently a majority of my home town is as well based on strictly anecdotal Facebook data. Probably just a vocal MAGA minority but very discouraging either way.


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There's a big difference between saying this is a hoax and wondering if the draconian measures are worth it.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

There is plenty that is not perfect about his model (just like all of the models that others have been posting), but the issue still remains that we are self-inflicting a lot of harm with a lot of uncertainty whether or not the harm is worth it.

Earlier in this thread catastrophe stated that what we are doing would not be worth it if the deaths were less than the seasonal flu.  That's an interesting position to take, but I'll give him credit for taking a position.  Regardless, it illustrates that saving human lives is not the end all be all when it comes to decision making.  We could implement the harsh measures we are implementing now and save more lives from the flu every year.  However, we don't and we end up sentencing more people to death.  The only thing that people disagree on then, is how many lives (and I would say it's QALYs vs lives) make different actions worth the costs.
Welcome back, JustAskingQuestions. I don’t think you ever weighed in on what projected death total would justify the “self inflicted harm” we’re doing right now. Thanks.

My willingness to pay is $125,000 per QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Year) gained.  That's a marginal increase in QALYs.  Some are going to die even if we take steps to mitigate, so you can't get credit for those with mitigation strategies.  Also, there would be some economic costs even with nothing being done, so the marginal cost of containment strategies is not just the headline number.

For example, if the marginal cost of the containment strategies is $2 trillion, you would need to be getting an additional 16 million QALYs for the containment strategies to be worth it.

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2041 on: March 22, 2020, 10:37:54 AM »
Who is this rough ridin' guy ugh
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

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Offline treysolid

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2042 on: March 22, 2020, 10:38:08 AM »
do your back-of-the-envelope calculations take into account the reduced QALYs of someone with pulmonary fibrosis and reduced lung function? I'm pretty sure your "model" was making an assumption that 100% of people who recover do so completely. That is a false assumption.

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2043 on: March 22, 2020, 10:42:42 AM »
Ok but now convert that to # of deaths so we have an apples to apples comparison.

Catastrophe: less than 65,000 projected US deaths would not justify the current protective measures. (CDC estimates our worst recent flu season to be responsible for 61,000)

Justwin: more than ______ projected US deaths would justify the current protective measures.

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2044 on: March 22, 2020, 10:45:45 AM »
It’s pretty terrifying that such a huge portion of our populace was lapping up the presidents and Fox news “liberal hoax” and “deep state” talking points. And obviously there are STILL a huge number of MAGAs out there that are considering this thing paranoia, overreaction, straight up fake, etc. even after Fox and the Presidents late pivot to it actually being a big rough ridin' deal. KSU-W is certainly not alone. Apparently a majority of my home town is as well based on strictly anecdotal Facebook data. Probably just a vocal MAGA minority but very discouraging either way.


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There's a big difference between saying this is a hoax and wondering if the draconian measures are worth it.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

There is plenty that is not perfect about his model (just like all of the models that others have been posting), but the issue still remains that we are self-inflicting a lot of harm with a lot of uncertainty whether or not the harm is worth it.

Earlier in this thread catastrophe stated that what we are doing would not be worth it if the deaths were less than the seasonal flu.  That's an interesting position to take, but I'll give him credit for taking a position.  Regardless, it illustrates that saving human lives is not the end all be all when it comes to decision making.  We could implement the harsh measures we are implementing now and save more lives from the flu every year.  However, we don't and we end up sentencing more people to death.  The only thing that people disagree on then, is how many lives (and I would say it's QALYs vs lives) make different actions worth the costs.
Welcome back, JustAskingQuestions. I don’t think you ever weighed in on what projected death total would justify the “self inflicted harm” we’re doing right now. Thanks.

My willingness to pay is $125,000 per QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Year) gained.  That's a marginal increase in QALYs.  Some are going to die even if we take steps to mitigate, so you can't get credit for those with mitigation strategies.  Also, there would be some economic costs even with nothing being done, so the marginal cost of containment strategies is not just the headline number.

For example, if the marginal cost of the containment strategies is $2 trillion, you would need to be getting an additional 16 million QALYs for the containment strategies to be worth it.

this guy economics

what's your guess on the marginal cost of the containment strategies we have currently implemented?

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2046 on: March 22, 2020, 10:46:56 AM »
"thought police" lmao

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Offline CHONGS

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #2049 on: March 22, 2020, 10:51:53 AM »
Could cross post to MAGA thread.