Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1565683 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline catastrophe

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 16054
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1175 on: March 15, 2020, 09:40:11 PM »
If I were President I’d be all over $97.5 billion to save a few thousand citizens. How much do you think we spend in antiterrorism efforts?
*A few hundred thousand citizens
I mean I’d do it for a few thousand. Anyone it helps above that is just gravy.

As stated before, $97.5 billion is not the cost for a few thousand, it's the benefit for a several hundred thousand.

Also, if you're willing to spend $97.5 billion for a few thousand citizens, would you also be willing to spend $3.25 quadrillion to save 100 million citizens?  If so, how would you do that?
Bro, we spend over $600 billion every year in military spending with the stated goal of protecting US citizens. We certainly haven’t saved more US lives vs the countries who spend way less, so I think the calculus has already been done and most people disagree with your valuation of human life.

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 20997
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1176 on: March 15, 2020, 09:46:13 PM »
Actuarial tables should not be mistaken for a moral framework.

Offline bucket

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 10181
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1177 on: March 15, 2020, 09:49:51 PM »
Actuarial tables should not be mistaken for a moral framework.

Who's ignoring them?

Offline Justwin

  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1150
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1178 on: March 15, 2020, 09:50:20 PM »
If I were President I’d be all over $97.5 billion to save a few thousand citizens. How much do you think we spend in antiterrorism efforts?
*A few hundred thousand citizens
I mean I’d do it for a few thousand. Anyone it helps above that is just gravy.

As stated before, $97.5 billion is not the cost for a few thousand, it's the benefit for a several hundred thousand.

Also, if you're willing to spend $97.5 billion for a few thousand citizens, would you also be willing to spend $3.25 quadrillion to save 100 million citizens?  If so, how would you do that?
Bro, we spend over $600 billion every year in military spending with the stated goal of protecting US citizens. We certainly haven’t saved more US lives vs the countries who spend way less, so I think the calculus has already been done and most people disagree with your valuation of human life.

Bro, $125,000 for a QALY is pretty standard for the US.  In the UK, NICE uses about $50,000 per QALY.  People don't disagree with my valuation.

Military spending is extremely wasteful.  Let's cut it drastically.  No argument here.

What's going on is not a disagreement about the actual valuation of things.  It's a misunderstanding of the benefits vs costs.  There is a lot of fear mongering about the impacts of the virus and nearly complete ignoring of the costs.  Our policy is proceeding in a way that is essentially based on an assumption that stopping the spread of this virus is the only thing that matters.  In the grand scheme of things, we can afford the misguided path we are going down, but it is very much not worth it.  We would be much better off proceeding about our normal lives and letting the virus impact those that it does.

However, public health officials are not interested in thinking about all of the negative consequences of their prescriptions.  They have a one-track mode of thinking and cannot think outside of it.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40815
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1179 on: March 15, 2020, 09:51:37 PM »
i'm really very reassured by the state and local govts stepping in to shut down many of the most obvious routes of transmission.  it seems like a good bet that we're going to be a fair bit ahead of italy in terms what % of the population is already infected before measures are taken to disrupt transmission.

and we have natural advantages in density and use of public transit.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19148
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1180 on: March 15, 2020, 09:51:42 PM »
I like the assumption of 1.2 QALY that Justin uses as if everyone who is going to die is in a nursing home alreays
:adios:

Offline Justwin

  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1150
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1181 on: March 15, 2020, 09:52:24 PM »
Actuarial tables should not be mistaken for a moral framework.

So KK, would you be willing to spend $5 quadrillion to save 100 million lives?

As asked before, if you are, how would you be able to do this?

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19148
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1182 on: March 15, 2020, 09:52:30 PM »
I like the assumption of 1.2 QALY that Justin uses as if everyone who is going to die is in a nursing home alreays
Mods please change justwin‘s username to Justin
:adios:

Offline Justwin

  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1150
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1183 on: March 15, 2020, 09:53:31 PM »
I like the assumption of 1.2 QALY that Justin uses as if everyone who is going to die is in a nursing home alreays

What do you think is the average age of people that die from COVID-19?

Offline catastrophe

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 16054
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1184 on: March 15, 2020, 09:54:25 PM »

Bro, $125,000 for a QALY is pretty standard for the US.  In the UK, NICE uses about $50,000 per QALY.  People don't disagree with my valuation.

Military spending is extremely wasteful.  Let's cut it drastically.  No argument here.

Perfect. I just found the $97.5 billion we need! :cheers:

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19148
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1185 on: March 15, 2020, 09:55:22 PM »
81, how long do you think the average 81 year old lives?
:adios:

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40815
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1186 on: March 15, 2020, 09:55:59 PM »
I like the assumption of 1.2 QALY that Justin uses as if everyone who is going to die is in a nursing home alreays

that, and also the idea that people will just happily continue about their productive work lives as half the population becomes sick with a disease that kills grandma.

the economic disruption is coming regardless, it's just a question of whether we force ourselves to do it before the need is obvious, or if we wait until people do it naturally out of fear.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline Justwin

  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1150
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1187 on: March 15, 2020, 09:56:44 PM »
81, how long do you think the average 81 year old lives?

It's not how long the average 81 year old lives.  It's how long the average 81 year old that dies from COVID-19 lives.  From everything I've read, it's not too long.

Offline 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 19148
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1188 on: March 15, 2020, 09:58:48 PM »
This as a pretty good one Cat27, better than the last one you used
:adios:

Offline Justwin

  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1150
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1189 on: March 15, 2020, 09:59:01 PM »
I like the assumption of 1.2 QALY that Justin uses as if everyone who is going to die is in a nursing home alreays

that, and also the idea that people will just happily continue about their productive work lives as half the population becomes sick with a disease that kills grandma.

the economic disruption is coming regardless, it's just a question of whether we force ourselves to do it before the need is obvious, or if we wait until people do it naturally out of fear.

What do you think the disruption to work is going to be for the majority of people that are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms?  Most people are largely unaffected or are bothered for a few days.

Offline DaBigTrain

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 12726
  • stuxnet, meltdown, spectre, Bitcoin, ffChamp
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1190 on: March 15, 2020, 09:59:35 PM »
https://twitter.com/MonaSalama_/status/1239372325260341251
Why are you posting this sys? Don’t you know? We should actually be going out to eat MORE and getting MORE drinks with friends.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40815
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1191 on: March 15, 2020, 09:59:54 PM »
whatever the number is, it comes down when the number of patients needing medical assistance exceeds the capacity to provide care.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline DaBigTrain

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 12726
  • stuxnet, meltdown, spectre, Bitcoin, ffChamp
    • View Profile
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline Justwin

  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1150
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1193 on: March 15, 2020, 10:02:47 PM »
whatever the number is, it comes down when the number of patients needing medical assistance exceeds the capacity to provide care.

Then people don't get care.  The vast majority of people that get COVID-19 need absolutely no medical care.  NONE.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40815
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1194 on: March 15, 2020, 10:03:36 PM »
What do you think the disruption to work is going to be for the majority of people that are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms?  Most people are largely unaffected or are bothered for a few days.

are you familiar with the term landscape of fear?
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline catastrophe

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 16054
    • View Profile

Offline michigancat

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 55966
  • change your stupid avatar.
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1196 on: March 15, 2020, 10:04:40 PM »
This as a pretty good one Cat27, better than the last one you used

I don't think cat27 would attempt math, but this guy is very very dumb

Offline Spracne

  • Point Plank'r
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *
  • Posts: 22873
  • Gentleman | Polymath | Renowned Lover
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1197 on: March 15, 2020, 10:05:14 PM »
@Spracne  :surprised:

https://twitter.com/judgeclayj/status/1239367485574569984

Lol. Old news to me. But the bigger impact is that I was slated for civil jury duty in a couple weeks!
My winning smile and can-do attitude.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40815
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1198 on: March 15, 2020, 10:06:35 PM »
The vast majority of people that get COVID-19 need absolutely no medical care.  NONE.

that fact has no relevance to the mortality rate of people that do require medical care.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline bucket

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 10181
    • View Profile
Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1199 on: March 15, 2020, 10:07:54 PM »
We've devolved into kill grandma. This is going well.