CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[catastrophe]

Grumblings that Arizona is counting repeat tests to already confirmed positives in the hospital as "new cases."

why in the fvck would they do this?

As a lazy person I can say with absolute confidence that, if this is true, it’s cause it’s easier than keeping track of who is a repeat test.

[Phil Titola]

You guys are just being dramatic and buying into fearporn

Raise your hand if you thought there weren't thousands upon thousands of asymptomatic people walking around out there.

Phil-Hand raised

Wut?

[DaBigTrain]

Grumblings that Arizona is counting repeat tests to already confirmed positives in the hospital as "new cases."

why in the fvck would they do this?

idk.  i don't even know if it's true.

Good thing you’re sharing it then.

[420seriouscat69]

dax I think you're a smart dude and I'd like to have a real conversation with you but why do you have to act like this?

Inferiority complex. I could have diagnosed him in a shrink sesh in two seconds.

[DQ12]

Grumblings that Arizona is counting repeat tests to already confirmed positives in the hospital as "new cases."

why in the fvck would they do this?

idk.  i don't even know if it's true.

what's the source of the grumblings?

Berenson.  So take it with a grain of salt. But this would at least go a little ways toward explaining death numbers detaching from reported positives.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1276151496200130564?s=20

Grumblings that Arizona is counting repeat tests to already confirmed positives in the hospital as "new cases."

why in the fvck would they do this?

idk.  i don't even know if it's true.

Good thing you’re sharing it then.

Sorry to interrupt today's edition of Fighting With Dax.

[michigancat]

Grumblings that Arizona is counting repeat tests to already confirmed positives in the hospital as "new cases."

why in the fvck would they do this?

idk.  i don't even know if it's true.

what's the source of the grumblings?

Berenson.  So take it with a grain of salt. But this would at least go a little ways toward explaining death numbers detaching from reported positives.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1276151496200130564?s=20

I don't know if we can say AZ's deaths are detached from positives, can we?

[Phil Titola]

Sorry to interrupt today's edition of Fighting With Dax.

Man talk about boiling down what is wrong with the US response to this pandemic with a gE angle.

[sonofdaxjones]

dax I think you're a smart dude and I'd like to have a real conversation with you but why do you have to act like this?

Because you have insane expectations and clearly don't know how our system works.  Our political system is not built for draconian Federal measures on a national level.   One minute your political movement is demanding Federal control over everything, the next your political movement goes apoplectic at the mere hint of Federal control over anything.   

There's also zero standardization in this process on an international level when it comes to  statistical analysis and reporting.   Every country, even in the EU countries has their own standards for reporting and classification.    It is not the least bit unrealistic to question, say the information coming out of Taiwan, because the Taiwanese are playing a political and propaganda game of life and death with the CCP.   It's not the least bit unrealistic to question the information out of South Korea because South Korea has been in a propaganda war with North Korea for 70 years.   They may well have totally handled the RONA, but given the asymptomatic nature of the virus I have my doubts.

Then there's the racial make up of the population.    It has nothing to do with racism.    Why are more racially homogeneous countries appearing to fair better in this Pandemic?    Is it cultural norms, adherence to policy and rules?   Is it physiological/genetic traits? 

Then there's the origins of the virus itself.  We still don't know exactly how this got started.  Some scientists have dismissed the weaponization conspiracy.   But we've still got scientists at reputable universities (Cornell, Harvard) saying this virus acts in ways they've never seen before.  Scientists can be political.   Until we know the whole story from the Chinese this cannot be dismissed, particularly given their clearly malicious intent to spread the virus world wide once they knew they didn't have it contained in Wuhan.  If a major industrial center in China was going to get hit hard, then the CCP decided that the whole world was going to get hit hard.   

 

[DQ12]

Grumblings that Arizona is counting repeat tests to already confirmed positives in the hospital as "new cases."

why in the fvck would they do this?

idk.  i don't even know if it's true.

what's the source of the grumblings?

Berenson.  So take it with a grain of salt. But this would at least go a little ways toward explaining death numbers detaching from reported positives.

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1276151496200130564?s=20

I don't know if we can say AZ's deaths are detached from positives, can we?

IDK.  They had a big spike in deaths (a higher peak in death's than AZ's seen to date) in the middle of may that doesn't really correlate to any associated big spike in cases.  Then they came off the big spike in deaths that similarly doesn't correlate to any big dropoff in cases.  I don't want to go through the rigamaroll of pasting the divoc charts, but you can see them there.

I understand they're related, but it's counter intuitive data like that that I'm having a hard time grappling with.

[sonofdaxjones]

dax I think you're a smart dude and I'd like to have a real conversation with you but why do you have to act like this?

Inferiority complex. I could have diagnosed him in a shrink sesh in two seconds.

 

[Phil Titola]

To dax's actual legit point we don't have standards for reporting worldwide but it's a bit improbable to believe only the US is properly reporting data hence our numbers are going up and our world-wide peers data is just wrong and why their stats look better. Come on

[CHONGS]

Dax: China weaponized the virus to take advantage of black people's (genetic perhaps?)  predisposition to not follow rules.

You heard it here first.

[sonofdaxjones]

Dax: China weaponized the virus to take advantage of black people's (genetic perhaps?)  predisposition to not follow rules.

You heard it here first.

ChinStalker :  I only show up when Dax does

[Institutional Control]

Welp, a week and a half after transitioning from mandatory WFH to voluntary (but encouraged) WFH, my office is going back to mandatory WFH. Anyone else?

We are still at voluntary which is about 90% of our office.  I come in 3 days a week because my internet at home is garbage with the entire neighborhood WFH.

[sys]

it's counter intuitive data like that that I'm having a hard time grappling with.

just don't think that the number of cases reported has any clear relationship with the number of infected persons and this problem goes away.

[sys]

I didn't think we'd see anything like NY again, but Arizona might prove me wrong.

won't happen.  nyc and the northeast happened when we essentially had no visibility on the spread of the virus.  that's no longer the case.  you already see and hear much more discussion and interest in coronavirus news this week than last.  people (and governments) will respond to that and cut off the growth far earlier than happened in the spring.

[michigancat]

I didn't think we'd see anything like NY again, but Arizona might prove me wrong.

won't happen.  nyc and the northeast happened when we essentially had no visibility on the spread of the virus.  that's no longer the case.  you already see and hear much more discussion and interest in coronavirus news this week than last.  people (and governments) will respond to that and cut off the growth far earlier than happened in the spring.

New York also had a pretty serious lockdown (even if it was too late) while AFAIK restaurants are open for dine-in and churches are open without even a physical distancing requirement in Arizona. And the governor had banned cities from requiring masks until last week!

That said, I agree it's unlikely.

[michigancat]

dax I think you're a smart dude and I'd like to have a real conversation with you but why do you have to act like this?

Because you have insane expectations and clearly don't know how our system works.  Our political system is not built for draconian Federal measures on a national level.   One minute your political movement is demanding Federal control over everything, the next your political movement goes apoplectic at the mere hint of Federal control over anything.   

There's also zero standardization in this process on an international level when it comes to  statistical analysis and reporting.   Every country, even in the EU countries has their own standards for reporting and classification.    It is not the least bit unrealistic to question, say the information coming out of Taiwan, because the Taiwanese are playing a political and propaganda game of life and death with the CCP.   It's not the least bit unrealistic to question the information out of South Korea because South Korea has been in a propaganda war with North Korea for 70 years.   They may well have totally handled the RONA, but given the asymptomatic nature of the virus I have my doubts.

Then there's the racial make up of the population.    It has nothing to do with racism.    Why are more racially homogeneous countries appearing to fair better in this Pandemic?    Is it cultural norms, adherence to policy and rules?   Is it physiological/genetic traits? 

Then there's the origins of the virus itself.  We still don't know exactly how this got started.  Some scientists have dismissed the weaponization conspiracy.   But we've still got scientists at reputable universities (Cornell, Harvard) saying this virus acts in ways they've never seen before.  Scientists can be political.   Until we know the whole story from the Chinese this cannot be dismissed, particularly given their clearly malicious intent to spread the virus world wide once they knew they didn't have it contained in Wuhan.  If a major industrial center in China was going to get hit hard, then the CCP decided that the whole world was going to get hit hard.   

 

damn, never mind

[DQ12]

it's counter intuitive data like that that I'm having a hard time grappling with.

just don't think that the number of cases reported has any clear relationship with the number of infected persons and this problem goes away.

That's my problem though.  You look at the numbers in Arizona (for instance) and they look relatively ugly.  Feels like burying my head in the sand to totally handwave them.

[sys]

yeah, you don't need to ignore them, but just keep in mind that 38k reported cases in late june is not the same thing as 38k reported cases in april or even may - and we don't really have the information to try and figure out what the relationship between them is.

comparisons over shorter time periods can make sense.  but also, 3k cases in one state doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as 3k in another state, etc.

only the death data is of half-decent quality (and of course it's on a delay).

[sonofdaxjones]

dax I think you're a smart dude and I'd like to have a real conversation with you but why do you have to act like this?

Because you have insane expectations and clearly don't know how our system works.  Our political system is not built for draconian Federal measures on a national level.   One minute your political movement is demanding Federal control over everything, the next your political movement goes apoplectic at the mere hint of Federal control over anything.   

There's also zero standardization in this process on an international level when it comes to  statistical analysis and reporting.   Every country, even in the EU countries has their own standards for reporting and classification.    It is not the least bit unrealistic to question, say the information coming out of Taiwan, because the Taiwanese are playing a political and propaganda game of life and death with the CCP.   It's not the least bit unrealistic to question the information out of South Korea because South Korea has been in a propaganda war with North Korea for 70 years.   They may well have totally handled the RONA, but given the asymptomatic nature of the virus I have my doubts.

Then there's the racial make up of the population.    It has nothing to do with racism.    Why are more racially homogeneous countries appearing to fair better in this Pandemic?    Is it cultural norms, adherence to policy and rules?   Is it physiological/genetic traits? 

Then there's the origins of the virus itself.  We still don't know exactly how this got started.  Some scientists have dismissed the weaponization conspiracy.   But we've still got scientists at reputable universities (Cornell, Harvard) saying this virus acts in ways they've never seen before.  Scientists can be political.   Until we know the whole story from the Chinese this cannot be dismissed, particularly given their clearly malicious intent to spread the virus world wide once they knew they didn't have it contained in Wuhan.  If a major industrial center in China was going to get hit hard, then the CCP decided that the whole world was going to get hit hard.   

 

damn, never mind

Lol, you’re so full of crap.  Just keep spit balling and telling yourself you actually know something. 

[DQ12]

yeah, you don't need to ignore them, but just keep in mind that 38k reported cases in late june is not the same thing as 38k reported cases in april or even may - and we don't really have the information to try and figure out what the relationship between them is.

comparisons over shorter time periods can make sense.  but also, 3k cases in one state doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as 3k in another state, etc.

only the death data is of half-decent quality (and of course it's on a delay).

That's the resolution I came to a month or two ago, but these spikes in reported cases are challenging my resolve.

[michigancat]

yeah, you don't need to ignore them, but just keep in mind that 38k reported cases in late june is not the same thing as 38k reported cases in april or even may - and we don't really have the information to try and figure out what the relationship between them is.

comparisons over shorter time periods can make sense.  but also, 3k cases in one state doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as 3k in another state, etc.

only the death data is of half-decent quality (and of course it's on a delay).

That's the resolution I came to a month or two ago, but these spikes in reported cases are challenging my resolve.

the case data reporting can be imperfect but still be useful.

[catastrophe]

I prefer hospitalizations. Improved treatments can have a significant impact on deaths, but presumably the same proportion of people who get COVID are needing hospitalized now vs March. So helpful for both historical comparison and as a measure for how widespread infection is.

[michigancat]

I prefer hospitalizations. Improved treatments can have a significant impact on deaths, but presumably the same proportion of people who get COVID are needing hospitalized now vs March. So helpful for both historical comparison and as a measure for how widespread infection is.

Agreed, hospitals would have the most reliable & consisetent testing supply and methodology, too. Also what really turns this into a disaster is when hospitals are overrun like Northern Italy and New York.

Problem is even that can be skewed on some level (see FL ICU's) and a lot of states don't report them.