CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[LickNeckey]

i assume all of these people being furloghed are also losing there employee provided health insurance.

is that accurate?

[Katpappy]

You can bet your sick coughing ass on that!  I'm sure there's a gov. social program for them though. 

[Kat Kid]

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1241838036427522050

This is the data point I wait for each day.

The lack of testing is by far the biggest misstep in dealing with this virus.  No matter what you think of the virus in terms of it's real or a hoax or a big deal or not, there is zero reason to not have the capacity to test for it.  Testing has to be the most cost effective way to deal with the virus.

I have heard anecdotal reports directly from doctors in some places that they are not even bothering to test everyone if they present all the symptoms because they are so short on tests.  We will never know how many people got it.

Yeah I mean if they don't need to be hospitalized or have other issues they should assume they're positive and ride it out at home at this point

Yes it’s the right decision not to test mild cases but still messes with the numbers. We can assume both that more people have COVID-19 than those numbers indicate (bad, but duh) and that more people have been processed than the numbers indicate (good).

Yes. I think there were some attempts to “game the denominator”

With critics of the response saying “well, we know that way more people are asymptomatic and so the serious cases are a smaller %, then what we are seeing.”

And also saying “based on these numbers, how can you justify this response?”

Justwin is making a much more honest argument than that nonsense and over time models will be able to give us a good approximation because they can use sampling.

It is just obvious at this point that many people will have it and never know.

[catastrophe]

I think the numbers from Iceland are illuminating about asymptomatic cases, but the deaths and hospitalization rate attributable to COVID-19 is still staggering any way you slice it.

[sys]

i hate to both sides this issue, because republicans are pretty clearly an order of magnitude worse.  but the crap we have where republicans are trying to just shove off money at industries with no oversight and dems are trying shoehorn their favorite labor reforms and corporate punishing populist crap into the relief bill.  and they're all trying to do it through the tax code because we can't conceive of ever doing anything that isn't somehow a manipulation of taxes.

like, dudes, this doesn't need to be this hard.

https://twitter.com/ALeighMP/status/1242010240960172033

[steve dave]

Agree sys


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[catastrophe]

Can I get the cliffs on how to freeze the economy? Sounds good as a concept but I have no clue how that is accomplished.

[Kat Kid]

I mostly agree sys. Direct payments should be issued last week.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

The long term consequences of the economic catastrophe unfolding as a result of panic over the virus are going to dwarf the deaths from the virus itself. Please read and consider:

https://spectator.us/consider-costs-coronavirus/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

Next, here is a helpful continuously updated dashboard of deaths and confirmed cases by country, plus per million capita. Interesting stuff. Key takeaways: Over 2/3rds of the roughly 15k deaths are in just 4 countries: Italy, China, Spain, Iran. Deaths are not growing exponentially. Not even close. Confirmed cases in US don’t appear to be growing exponentially, even if the number of cases is likely significantly muted by lack of testing, in which case death rate is far lower.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

Simply put, the numbers aren’t coming anywhere close to doomsday projections, and still lag far, far, far behind flu and any other myriad causes of death. You must at least concede this, even if you protest that the numbers would have been far worse without the interventions that have been taken. And I agree, the numbers likely have been blunted, but by how much and at what terrible cost? Even if these numbers were 100x worse they would not compare to a run of the mill flu.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Next, speaking of panic, the KC Metro’s lockdown is panic, plain and simple, but leave it to Sedgwick County to top JoCo in ineptitude.....

See, our Sedgwick County Commissioners are super eager to exert their authoritayy and follow big brother’s footsteps. Only the County Public Health Officer is speaking inconvenient common sense.

https://www.kansas.com/news/coronavirus/article241415346.html

Sedgwick County government staffers are drafting an order for people in the largest city in Kansas to stay at home amid the coronavirus pandemic, even though the county’s top public health official says it is not necessary now.

...

“It’s not that I don’t think we won’t have to get more restrictive, we probably will,” physician Garold Minns told reporters after the meeting. “But we got a little time to get more information and see how we can do this in the best way that’s the least painful to our county.”

Minns is the dean of the Wichita campus of the University of Kansas School of Medicine and the public health officer for Sedgwick County.

Meitzner said a stay-at-home order could be issued this week, despite the doctor’s statements against one.

“Obviously he’s the doctor and he (Minns) is comfortable kind of with where we’re at,” Meitzner said after the meeting. “The rest of us are a little more cautious about it. I think there’s a desire among most of us that we want to do a little (more).”

Lacey Cruse was the only commissioner to explicitly say at the meeting that she supports passing an ordinance now.

Minns told commissioners during the meeting that he thought economic concerns were not outweighed by public health concerns at this time.

“If I had my preference, we would isolate everyone totally and shut the city down and then wait for a vaccine to appear in a year and a half,” Minns said. “But I realize the consequences of doing that would be incredibly worse than the disease. The economic and political and social consequences of doing that would be worse than just letting everyone get the disease.”

What a surprise, the pols want to overact. Much more surprising is that the doctor is doing the pols’ job of being the adult in the room and taking all angles into consideration.

[mocat]

Even if these numbers were 100x worse they would not compare to a run of the mill flu.

what

[Kat Kid]

Facts don’t care and out your feelings mocat.

[420seriouscat69]

i assume all of these people being furloghed are also losing there employee provided health insurance.

is that accurate?

I have it through April.

[steve dave]

Even if these numbers were 100x worse they would not compare to a run of the mill flu.

what

lmao

[michigancat]

i hate to both sides this issue, because republicans are pretty clearly an order of magnitude worse.  but the crap we have where republicans are trying to just shove off money at industries with no oversight and dems are trying shoehorn their favorite labor reforms and corporate punishing populist crap into the relief bill.  and they're all trying to do it through the tax code because we can't conceive of ever doing anything that isn't somehow a manipulation of taxes.

like, dudes, this doesn't need to be this hard.

https://twitter.com/ALeighMP/status/1242010240960172033

That Denmark plan makes a lot of sense to me.

[chum1]

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1242060770218827777

[michigancat]

The long term consequences of the economic catastrophe unfolding as a result of panic over the virus are going to dwarf the deaths from the virus itself. Please read and consider:

https://spectator.us/consider-costs-coronavirus/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

Next, here is a helpful continuously updated dashboard of deaths and confirmed cases by country, plus per million capita. Interesting stuff. Key takeaways: Over 2/3rds of the roughly 15k deaths are in just 4 countries: Italy, China, Spain, Iran. Deaths are not growing exponentially. Not even close. Confirmed cases in US don’t appear to be growing exponentially, even if the number of cases is likely significantly muted by lack of testing, in which case death rate is far lower.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

Simply put, the numbers aren’t coming anywhere close to doomsday projections, and still lag far, far, far behind flu and any other myriad causes of death. You must at least concede this, even if you protest that the numbers would have been far worse without the interventions that have been taken. And I agree, the numbers likely have been blunted, but by how much and at what terrible cost? Even if these numbers were 100x worse they would not compare to a run of the mill flu.

I'd like just one of those "we're doing too much" pieces to combine statistical-based projections of "herd immunity" or whatever with a serious look at ICU and ventilator capacity in the country.


Also that Katz guy seems to be considered a quack

https://twitter.com/gregggonsalves/status/1242045056061669383

[Phil Titola]

The long term consequences of the economic catastrophe unfolding as a result of panic over the virus are going to dwarf the deaths from the virus itself. Please read and consider:

https://spectator.us/consider-costs-coronavirus/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html

Next, here is a helpful continuously updated dashboard of deaths and confirmed cases by country, plus per million capita. Interesting stuff. Key takeaways: Over 2/3rds of the roughly 15k deaths are in just 4 countries: Italy, China, Spain, Iran. Deaths are not growing exponentially. Not even close. Confirmed cases in US don’t appear to be growing exponentially, even if the number of cases is likely significantly muted by lack of testing, in which case death rate is far lower.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

Simply put, the numbers aren’t coming anywhere close to doomsday projections, and still lag far, far, far behind flu and any other myriad causes of death. You must at least concede this, even if you protest that the numbers would have been far worse without the interventions that have been taken. And I agree, the numbers likely have been blunted, but by how much and at what terrible cost? Even if these numbers were 100x worse they would not compare to a run of the mill flu.

Bud your Times opinion piece is saying we need to test everybody to get control.  The very thing your president is telling us we don't need to do.  I'll listen to your comments off the air, thanks.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I don't think a Trump supporter has to agree with anything he says. Most of them know he's not a smart man.

[catastrophe]

Even if these numbers were 100x worse they would not compare to a run of the mill flu.

what

the

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Even if these numbers were 100x worse they would not compare to a run of the mill flu.

what

the

Sorry for embarsssing typo. Meant 10x. Annual global projected flu deaths average around 400-500k a year. We are not seeing the catastrophic numbers that were projected. Not even close.

[catastrophe]

Which countries haven’t taken protective measures?

[MakeItRain]

It's eye opening that so many of you are posting ITT about "the dangers of this virus" and completely ignoring the real victims here - the hard working folks who got their ski trip cut short. You are all completely stupid. Keep up the great work, ksuw, you're doing amazing

I think this is a bit overstated, but is more than just people getting their ski trip cut short.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-21/coronavirus-school-closures-will-hurt-kids-and-worsen-inequality

So let me venture a prediction. One long-term effect of the Covid-19 pandemic will be to leave many children behind, perhaps permanently limiting their opportunities in life. At the same time, the disruption will barely affect others and even let a few pull ahead. In short, it will exacerbate inequality.

Ah, the old using the disadvantaged as a vehicle for hyperbole. Great.

[MakeItRain]

go Iceland

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1241686739862913024

If the new 45 minute test turns out to be effective and scalable, I think this is our quickest path to business as usual. Test the crap out of everyone.

Yep, especially if they can be self administered and easily distributed.

In America? 

[cfbandyman]

Even if these numbers were 100x worse they would not compare to a run of the mill flu.

what

the

Sorry for embarsssing typo. Meant 10x. Annual global projected flu deaths average around 400-500k a year. We are not seeing the catastrophic numbers that were projected. Not even close.

So that works out to 1370 deaths/day for 500k deaths/year world wide. We've passed that rate the last 3 days, already. Sorry the body count takes a while to pile up to a level for you to notice. Want to see what it looks like next week?