I did not see Grand Budapest, Boyhood, or many of the other nominated movies yet, but of what I've seen, here's what I would vote for for the Oscars:
Best Picture: Selma
Best Actor: Steve Carell
Best Actress: Rosamund Pike
Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons
Best Supporting Actress: Keira Knightley
Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Imitation Game
Visual Effects: Interstellar