Author Topic: ChUPAR 2018 (Read 13423 times)

CHONGS · « **Reply #75 on:** November 16, 2018, 03:38:55 PM »

ChUPAR takes yet another bite out of the CFPR. They are quite silly these days.

These are teams that are BADLY OVERRATED:

Texas at #15 --- Amazing. 25 spots higher than where ChUPAR would put them.

Syracuse at #12 --- 15 Spots higher than they should be. Still no wins againts teams in the ChUPAR Top 25.

Northwestern at #22 --- They lost to Akron. Akron. Best win is against Iowa. They are here only because they won the Big 12 West, which is the modern day B12 North.

Washington at #18---- Sorry but the Pac 12 is too weak. Loss to Auburn is looking worse each week.

Still on notice: Iowa State

These are mid-majors that should be getting a bit more love (and I guess if KSU needs to draw deep to the mid-majors to get a coach keep an eye on these?):
Utah State, Army, App State, Buffalo, UAB, Fresno State

CHONGS · « **Reply #76 on:** November 16, 2018, 03:40:32 PM »

Quote from: mocat on November 16, 2018, 03:38:26 PM

chings have you ever thought about creating a "luck" factor, like just for fun to see which teams are better/worse than their record suggests? i got the idea from kenpom

snowbrag luck rankings:

1. ucf +0.27
2. syracuse +0.26
3. washington state +0.26
.
.
.
84. kansas state 0.00
.
.
.
128. nebraska -0.16
129. north carolina -0.23
130. ucla -0.28

we're not lucky or unlucky, we suck the precise amount of crap we're supposed to

Sure thats a good an idea and easy to do, in my case its actual record - winp

mocat · « **Reply #77 on:** November 16, 2018, 03:49:28 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on November 16, 2018, 03:24:52 PM

Picky picky picks

what do you have for #p12ad Herms @ Ducks?

CHONGS · « **Reply #78 on:** November 16, 2018, 04:02:31 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on November 16, 2018, 03:40:32 PM

Quote from: mocat on November 16, 2018, 03:38:26 PM
chings have you ever thought about creating a "luck" factor, like just for fun to see which teams are better/worse than their record suggests? i got the idea from kenpom

snowbrag luck rankings:

1. ucf +0.27
2. syracuse +0.26
3. washington state +0.26
.
.
.
84. kansas state 0.00
.
.
.
128. nebraska -0.16
129. north carolina -0.23
130. ucla -0.28

we're not lucky or unlucky, we suck the precise amount of crap we're supposed to
Sure thats a good an idea and easy to do, in my case its actual record - winp

Luck for top 25

Big 12

Luckiest:

Unluckiest:

CHONGS · « **Reply #79 on:** November 16, 2018, 04:04:06 PM »

CHONGS · « **Reply #80 on:** November 17, 2018, 09:10:59 PM »

Quote from: mocat on November 16, 2018, 03:29:36 PM

Quote from: Chingon on November 16, 2018, 03:24:52 PM
Picky picky picks

at UAB vs Texas A&M which is a -16.5.

snowbrag has UAB -3.5

thought maybe computer models in general love them some UAB......nope massey has A&M -20.5

DaBigTrain · « **Reply #81 on:** November 17, 2018, 09:17:05 PM »

Wow Massey was perfect!

Pete · « **Reply #82 on:** November 18, 2018, 09:00:04 AM »

Quote from: Chingon on November 16, 2018, 03:24:52 PM

Picky picky picks

at UAB vs Texas A&M which is a -16.5.

STILL top 100, and with our huge upset victory yesterday, I am guessing that we are a lock to complete the year inside 100.

CHONGS · « **Reply #83 on:** November 19, 2018, 01:46:35 PM »

WEEK 12

Big 12 (don't show this this to Bob!)

Matchup:

CHONGS · « **Reply #84 on:** November 19, 2018, 01:55:42 PM »

ChIPPS

1) Alabama (proj SEC Champ) vs 8) Washington State (proj Pac-12 Champ)
4) Georgia (Wildcard) vs 5) Notre Dame (Wildcard)
3) Michigan (proj Big Ten Champ) vs 6) UCF (G5)
2) Clemson (proj ACC Champ) vs 7) Oklahoma (proj Big 12 Champ)

wetwillie · « **Reply #85 on:** November 19, 2018, 03:37:13 PM »

Can you do Alabama vs Oakland Raiders

CHONGS · « **Reply #86 on:** November 29, 2018, 02:00:47 PM »

WEEK 13
Added a new column, "sos" which is the strength of the schedule (0 = lowest 1= highest). This doesn't directly effect the ChUPAR (X) ranking, but I thought it was interesting to show. Remember I think accomplishment (who you actually beat and lose to) is better to look at than sos (simply who you played).

Texas A&M played the toughest schedule this year and North Texas played the weakest (see below for more details on that interesting nugget).

Big 12:

Our KSU Wildcats had the toughest schedule this year (due to Miss State and well being the second worst team in the conference), just eeking out TCU. We did stay above 100 all year!

I know there are conflicting thoughts on it, but ChUPAR is also not impressed with the special teams performance from the 'cats this season. Only ISU and KU were less efficient.

The unluckiest team in the conference was Texas Tech, which meant so long to Kliffff.

Game by game stats:

I thought it would be interesting to compare KSU with North Texas:

bshea85 · « **Reply #87 on:** November 29, 2018, 02:07:57 PM »

Wait, with a ranking of 31, are you saying that North Texas is better than 80% of the BigXII? Is that how to read this?

CHONGS · « **Reply #88 on:** November 29, 2018, 02:31:19 PM »

Quote from: bshea85 on November 29, 2018, 02:07:57 PM

Wait, with a ranking of 31, are you saying that North Texas is better than 80% of the BigXII? Is that how to read this?

It's not saying it would beat all of the teams ranked below it, but North Texas deserves to be ranked higher than all of them except WVU and OU.

That's mostly due to them having pretty good efficiency stats (look at either totalE or winp). The Big 12 as a whole was not impressive this year. The best OOC wins for the conference were Boise State and Army.

mocat · « **Reply #89 on:** November 29, 2018, 02:47:52 PM »

KU should hang a banner for cracking the top 3 "Best wins" for another team

CHONGS · « **Reply #90 on:** November 29, 2018, 02:57:09 PM »

CHONGS · « **Reply #91 on:** November 29, 2018, 02:58:20 PM »

Quote from: mocat on November 29, 2018, 02:47:52 PM

KU should hang a banner for cracking the top 3 "Best wins" for another team

We were a self-fumble away from finishing last in the Big 12, how scary is that?

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #92 on:** November 29, 2018, 04:33:58 PM »

Quote from: mocat on November 29, 2018, 02:47:52 PM

KU should hang a banner for cracking the top 3 "Best wins" for another team

This might happen more often than you realize. Any team with 3 or less total wins that happens to beat KU would put them in the top 3.

Pete · « **Reply #93 on:** November 29, 2018, 06:21:29 PM »

So grateful that LHCBS finished the regular in the top 100.

CHONGS · « **Reply #94 on:** December 07, 2018, 02:19:26 PM »

Final Rankings:

Now who was the "best" according to efficiency numbers?

Who "deserves" to be ranked highest (soley on wins and losses)?

ChUPAR is the combination of the two above.

Big 12: