Author Topic: ChUPAR 2018 (Read 13390 times)

8manpick · « **Reply #50 on:** October 27, 2018, 09:42:14 AM »

Quote from: Chingon on October 26, 2018, 03:11:27 PM

No that's the prob of winning for the home team.

So you’re saying there’s a chance!

CHONGS · « **Reply #51 on:** October 31, 2018, 01:18:58 PM »

Week 9

Top 25

Because ESPN wants to start talkign playoffs for some odd reason so will I.

CHIngons Preferred Playoff System (ChiPPS), a quick reminder of the system
Automatic bid:
Winner of each P5 conference
Highest ranked Group of 5 member
Two wildcards (two highest ranked P5+ND teams remaining, with the caveat that a conference can have at most two representatives in the playoffs)

As of today:

1) Alabama (proj SEC Champ) vs 8) Utah (proj Pac-12 Champ)
4) Michigan (proj Big Ten Champ) vs 5) Notre Dame (Wildcard)
3) LSU (Wildcard) vs 6) Oklahoma (proj Big 12 Champ)
2) Clemson (proj ACC Champ) vs 7) Ga Southern (G5)

This assumes Alabama wins out, which would easily put them at #1.

Big 12 rankings:

Matchup:

This game is winnable, but its hard to predict anything with both of these teams...

Pete · « **Reply #52 on:** October 31, 2018, 06:18:36 PM »

HOLY crap OUR TOP 100 STREAK IS STILL ALIVE!

CHONGS · « **Reply #53 on:** October 31, 2018, 06:22:30 PM »

Quote from: Pete on October 31, 2018, 06:18:36 PM

HOLY crap OUR TOP 100 STREAK IS STILL ALIVE!

I think we can keep it alive... It'll probably take a loss to KU to drop below 100.

Pete · « **Reply #54 on:** October 31, 2018, 06:26:07 PM »

I admit, if you had told me before the season that we would spend the entire year in the top 100, I wouldn’t have believed you.

CHONGS · « **Reply #55 on:** November 01, 2018, 03:42:46 PM »

Betting Picks by brought to you by bernt:

Trim · « **Reply #56 on:** November 01, 2018, 03:47:21 PM »

Chingon, what sort of odds should I be given if I bet now that KSU will win the next 4 games?

CHONGS · « **Reply #57 on:** November 01, 2018, 05:15:24 PM »

And now ChUPAR takes a bite out of the CFPR.

These are teams that are egregiously OVERRATED:

Washington State at #8 --- No way man, their best win is against Utah and the lost to a mediocre USC team.

Texas at #17 --- Nu uh. While the win over OU is nice, they have two very bad losses and no victories against anyone else relevant. Plus their total efficiency is pretty low, under 1 (which all top ChUPAR teams have at least 1), hell even below 0.5.

Syracuse at #19 --- WTF. I can only guess no one has actually looked up their record. Best win is against NC State? I think people are thinking that the win against FSU was good?

Virginia at #25 ---- Whut? Miami, Duke, and Ohio are the big wins. They lost to Indiana.

I was temped to put NC State and Iowa State on notice, but they're just close enough to not be egregious.

These teams are way UNDERRATED:
Ga Southern --- They should be above UCF. They have a better win and the loss to Clemson is nothing to be ashamed of.

These are mid-majors that should be getting a bit more love (and I guess if KSU needs to draw deep to the mid-majors to get a coach keep an eye on these?):
Utah State, Army, App State, Buffalo, UAB.

CHONGS · « **Reply #58 on:** November 01, 2018, 05:21:05 PM »

Quote from: Trim on November 01, 2018, 03:47:21 PM

Chingon, what sort of odds should I be given if I bet now that KSU will win the next 4 games?

Using the current stats:

ChUPAR would say about 199:1 odds

CHONGS · « **Reply #59 on:** November 06, 2018, 03:26:18 PM »

WEEK 10

Well lookie at #25!

Big 12

Still above 100!

Dillon's Bowl Matchup

Its the only team in the conference clearly worse than us. The thing we have to watch out for is: who takes advantage of mistakes? This year we are pretty bad at it, and oddly enough KU is pretty good.

CHONGS · « **Reply #60 on:** November 06, 2018, 03:31:12 PM »

ChIPPS

1) Alabama (proj SEC Champ) vs 8) Washington (proj Pac-12 Champ)
4) Georgia (Wildcard) vs 5) Notre Dame (Wildcard)
3) Michigan (proj Big Ten Champ) vs 6) Oklahoma (proj Big 12 Champ)
2) Clemson (proj ACC Champ) vs 7) UCF (G5)

These would be really fun games.

nicname · « **Reply #61 on:** November 07, 2018, 10:15:16 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on November 06, 2018, 03:31:12 PM

ChIPPS

1) Alabama (proj SEC Champ) vs 8) Washington (proj Pac-12 Champ)
4) Georgia (Wildcard) vs 5) Notre Dame (Wildcard)
3) Michigan (proj Big Ten Champ) vs 6) Oklahoma (proj Big 12 Champ)
2) Clemson (proj ACC Champ) vs 7) UCF (G5)

These would be really fun games.

Yes they would be.

CHONGS · « **Reply #62 on:** November 08, 2018, 12:20:16 PM »

Bets bets bets bets by bretts bretts bretts bretts presents: ChUPAR pix

CHONGS · « **Reply #63 on:** November 08, 2018, 12:45:38 PM »

ChUPAR takes another bite out of the CFPR.

These are teams that are BADLY OVERRATED:

Washington State at #8 --- Pac 12 is just not good. Stink Park City, USA. Plus, they played a laughably bad non-conference schedule.

Texas at #19 --- Perhaps the most overrated team in college football. That OU win is being counted for waaay to much. TCU is their next best win. That's right TCU who lost to KU.

Syracuse at #13 --- Still shouldn't be anywhere near here. Best win is against NC State ok, but after that? It's Wake Forest. Classic example of rewarding a team way too much for losing close to a good team (Clemson).

Michigan State at #18 --- Losses to NW and Arizona St and too bad to ignore. They do have some good wins though. It's just that their efficiency numbers are too low.

Auburn at #24 ---- Dude, no way. This is simply a case where being in the SEC West is lifting them up in people's mind. They lost to Tennessee. Offense is a wreck.

Still on notice: NC State, Washington, and Iowa State on notice, but they're just close enough to not be egregious.

These are mid-majors that should be getting a bit more love (and I guess if KSU needs to draw deep to the mid-majors to get a coach keep an eye on these?):
Utah State, Army, App State, Buffalo, UAB, Fresno State, North Texas (!).

Trim · « **Reply #64 on:** November 08, 2018, 12:56:48 PM »

Win-out probability?

CHONGS · « **Reply #65 on:** November 08, 2018, 12:59:02 PM »

Quote from: Trim on November 08, 2018, 12:56:48 PM

Win-out probability?

2.7%

I'll give you 36:1 odds.

+3600

Trim · « **Reply #66 on:** November 08, 2018, 01:07:01 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on November 08, 2018, 12:59:02 PM

Quote from: Trim on November 08, 2018, 12:56:48 PM
Win-out probability?
2.7%

I'll give you 36:1 odds.

+3600

CHONGS · « **Reply #67 on:** November 08, 2018, 01:19:43 PM »

For completeness, if anti-Trim was curious:

lose out:
about 18%
23:5
+460

DQ12 · « **Reply #68 on:** November 08, 2018, 01:38:54 PM »

Ching's odds compare pretty accurately with S&P+. Impressive!

CHONGS · « **Reply #69 on:** November 12, 2018, 10:00:48 AM »

Week ¹¹

Alabama is crazy frightening.

Big 12

Still above 100!

Matchup

mocat · « **Reply #70 on:** November 13, 2018, 02:09:05 PM »

it feels like missouri has had about a decade's worth of devastating losses and boom there they are at #22

wetwillie · « **Reply #71 on:** November 13, 2018, 02:13:27 PM »

Not sure how the old man makes it happen but I had a dream and it happened so

CHONGS · « **Reply #72 on:** November 16, 2018, 03:24:52 PM »

Picky picky picks

at UAB vs Texas A&M which is a -16.5.

mocat · « **Reply #73 on:** November 16, 2018, 03:29:36 PM »

Quote from: Chingon on November 16, 2018, 03:24:52 PM

Picky picky picks

at UAB vs Texas A&M which is a -16.5.

snowbrag has UAB -3.5

thought maybe computer models in general love them some UAB......nope massey has A&M -20.5

mocat · « **Reply #74 on:** November 16, 2018, 03:38:26 PM »

chings have you ever thought about creating a "luck" factor, like just for fun to see which teams are better/worse than their record suggests? i got the idea from kenpom

snowbrag luck rankings:

1. ucf +0.27
2. syracuse +0.26
3. washington state +0.26
.
.
.
84. kansas state 0.00
.
.
.
128. nebraska -0.16
129. north carolina -0.23
130. ucla -0.28

we're not lucky or unlucky, we suck the precise amount of crap we're supposed to