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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on September 17, 2018, 04:03:34 PM
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That's right baby, it's back. After three weeks of games I can release CHingon's Ultimate Programmatic Accomplishment Rankings (ChUPAR).
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FRiAwx.png&hash=5284153ba019b7c91e26e6753d78aafe008bee78)
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FlHxFH.png&hash=5532af6d890d6a8f235f70d4c9c8c8d812401944)
Sadly KSU is ranked very low...and the whole Big 12 is not impressing too much this early in the year. Unsurprisingly we have the worst offense in the conference, and defense isn't much better.
Our game summaries so far:
Raw
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FmOKrB.png&hash=962330cefa5fa1bee064abaa3327fddcf04942d1)
Adjusted
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F4glEN.png&hash=e03ce1d1ef9470e780b6d492f129842fc5b58de1)
Our next opponent is the nefarious West Virginia. They only have one real game under their belt so they are relatively unknown, but here are their games:
Raw
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FaNFcy.png&hash=0a3374dee24ca967d8805137506985cda8ce9adc)
Adj
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FuKGAQ.png&hash=1b04c14c243775550a7f567123c24a136448766a)
Matchup:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FXzj7a.png&hash=7bb36cb1f2e89d3324fcec3c782625efeba28f77)
Clearly, KSU will be underdogs in this affair, but you just never know. That is why they play the games! Perhaps ChUPAR is full of crap? It could be!
| 99 Kansas State | 16 |
| 12 WVU | 38 |
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straight to the bottom.....
not very LRWTP to purple
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Let's Roll LRWTP to Purple nonetheless!
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How is KU ahead of TCU? This thing doesn't seem to care a lick who you lose to, is that correct?
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How is KU ahead of TCU? This thing doesn't seem to care a lick who you lose to, is that correct?
The ChUPAR philosophy: You are never (explicitly) penalized for a win, and never (explicitly) rewarded for a loss.
You are explicitly penalized for losing to a bad team and KU was. The biggest reasons KU is slightly ahead of TCU is because
1) its very early and there there isn't a big spread in accomplishment yet
2) they have better efficiency numbers
3) KU's two wins are slightly better than TCU's
Raw:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FPuQqR.png&hash=f9a2f655b6ba42c88cf7b1d9a152ba866181359c)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fq9IPC.png&hash=59c9df451eee5711230555f2ea4dcfcf97dcb99c)
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In fact, if KU has won that OT game against Nicolls they would have been ranked 21 by ChUPAR. So the loss dropped them 26 spots.
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In fact, if KU has won that OT game against Nicolls they would have been ranked 21 by ChUPAR. So the loss dropped them 26 spots.
Hm...
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Looking to make some money this weekend? Here are some ChUPAR Predictos!
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FIgRnT.png&hash=12422a4d547b0663b7964db55f2e6f64130369cc)
Use responsibly!
--- fixed the ranks to include KU having a loss again
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Oops KU is not ranked 21, but other than that it's the same.
^^ this has been fixed now
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WE ARE TOP 100!
:lynchmob:
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Looking to make some money this weekend? Here are some ChUPAR Predictos!
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FIgRnT.png&hash=12422a4d547b0663b7964db55f2e6f64130369cc)
Use responsibly!
Tell me how to interpret this
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That data is sketch as eff.
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Looking to make some money this weekend? Here are some ChUPAR Predictos!
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FIgRnT.png&hash=12422a4d547b0663b7964db55f2e6f64130369cc)
Use responsibly!
Tell me how to interpret this
Which part?
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Looking to make some money this weekend? Here are some ChUPAR Predictos!
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FIgRnT.png&hash=12422a4d547b0663b7964db55f2e6f64130369cc)
Use responsibly!
Tell me how to interpret this
Which part?
Is that your predicted spread and money line?
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Yeah, not much data to get yet so some are pretty strange looking
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I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
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I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.
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I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.
K, I thought so, but then saw some of the rankings and got confused. Home field play a big role in this or what?
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I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.
K, I thought so, but then saw some of the rankings and got confused. Home field play a big role in this or what?
Home field is worth about 3 points. The rank is the ChUPAR ranking.
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I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.
K, I thought so, but then saw some of the rankings and got confused. Home field play a big role in this or what?
Home field is worth about 3 points. The rank is the ChUPAR ranking.
I was looking at the ND/Wake game
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I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.
K, I thought so, but then saw some of the rankings and got confused. Home field play a big role in this or what?
Home field is worth about 3 points. The rank is the ChUPAR ranking.
I was looking at the ND/Wake game
Yeah if you look at ND they don't have a great efficiency number.
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Week 4
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FubSeU.png&hash=204f8132a14796ae407eb4cf42ba539b3a2172b2)
We always hear about winning the turnover battle, but a we saw last week it's pretty meaningless when you force a fumble and then go three and out in the very next drive without scoring. I think what is more important is how many points per turnover a team can generate (or lose). To this end, I have added a new stat, afterTO, which is the net points scored immediately after a turnover per opportunity. So if your defense generates a lot of turnovers, but and your offense can successfully convert them into points AND your offense doesn't create turnovers that lead to opposition points you will have a large positive number. If your offense gives up turnovers that your opponent then turns into points AND your offense can't take advantage of turnovers it will be negative. If you give up about as many point off of turnovers as you get then it will be about 0. This stat kind of measures how well a team can take advantage of an opportunity, balanced against how well they can recover from a mistake.
For every turnover in a game with Alabama they net about 3.83 points. For South Carolina they lose about a point for every turnover.
As of now, afterTO does not factor into the final ChUPAR ranking.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FIzVgo.png&hash=ecee3aa0c75864548788eba1b0b18a2080ae27ed)
KSU offense is anemic, but really not THAT different from last year (we ended up at 1.65 ppd):
2017 vs 2018 (raw)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FCsHbr.png&hash=9c0588adf8ccd6700894fe923740bbeea5f3d225)(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FWCdH9.png&hash=dc143f8bf6f7e441dc83b0550f7a52e70a8b099c)
(adj)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FBZFDD.png&hash=8718b0abb865de2d48651ea748bcbd3e62027042)(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FDXgXN.png&hash=87bdf55beea7d42a66bee382ae3c8c09e81da466)
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Matchup:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F2nYMp.png&hash=c8571a281a4c8d5403e3dba6e52dbdbdac99ad25)
Maybe we can take advantage of our slight edge in special teams to steal one at home. I can easily see our defense putting up a valiant fight for 3 quarters but giving up the ghost in the fourth as our offense just can't stay on the field. The odds-makers are saying it's about KSU +9, but ChUPAR thinks its +13
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FjtN8l.png&hash=4e911c0bec74974d41a64ccd25f5c2e48442ea6e)
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Never liked the ChUPAR, and this confirms it! Sad.
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I know it's early but ChUPAR seems volatile a.f.
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I know it's early but ChUPAR seems volatile a.f.
It is and will be. The previous week's rankings have no bearing on the current week.
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I know it's early but ChUPAR seems volatile a.f.
It is and will be. The previous week's rankings have no bearing on the current week.
So you’re telling me buying multiple lottery tickets doesn’t give me better odds of winning!? :runaway:
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No. Buying multiple lottery tickets does improve your odds.
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ChUPAR's picks brought to you by brett:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F5NHpG.png&hash=d7765d3c2795424c5bbfc5b8cb2acd0b9091a5df)
Lots of tasty games in the afternoon/evening.
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Snowbrag loves the nittany lions this week :surprised:
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It didn't escape my notice that we are still TOP 100!
:billdance:
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You still using that same stats api from last year Chings?
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You still using that same stats api from last year Chings?
Yup, well it's a set of documents on Google Drive that I access via Google's API.
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Week 5
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FpqrLC.png&hash=ffa06624e1a625b4fcd6917b0cf67a8b166a845a)
Big 12:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FF2QcG.png&hash=9ca2484c6a9f65c91648e9a0f9e95638e4799d47)
KSU Matchup:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FLYBNO.png&hash=01a7765881edfa132512dbf6e613212ad280a22c)
Its the match up of the worst offense in the conference versus the worst defense. Who can take advantage of the other?
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fa6T72.png&hash=db18324d36439b373a5bee9e8d2dbf0b9bff214f)
:blindfold: :blindfold: :blindfold:
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ChUPAR PICKS brought to you by brett of brett's betts
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FZ4RzB.png&hash=444f3b83df4f28eb7089b972aaccbbf29a706526)
ChUPAR thinks Kentucky, ND and LSU are getting their first ELL this weekend.
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Sutton and Heath. :love:
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Damn it. Come on Big Blue. Beat Cult Aggie!
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Week 6
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FLt1E0.png&hash=93a465b95fe0b8a00f3ee21b8b53d7d89da6de0d)
Big 12:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FFnHcz.png&hash=c110af055a55a8fb1372f726f6d23a5d0c7aa8bb)
KSU Matchup:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F6XvRp.png&hash=5e4c83a6f7ddc80c5b48fd643ad88262cc89ebf4)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FKPMLb.png&hash=80b87a197a03838c9f05a2cdeaf326bc5a030d24)
NOT IMPOSSIBLE!! We really really really really need our ST to stop being shitty. If we can end up net +7 in points after turnovers or get net +7 on ST I think we can win...
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How’s chupar against the spread YTD Chings?
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Not sure, maybe we can see what it does for this week.
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eff YEAH, STILL TOP 100!!!!
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Not sure, maybe we can see what it does for this week.
Ok I’ll go back and see if I can do the leg work on previous weeks
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Added a new feature: ChUPAR's Assessment of Football Fun Factor (ChAFFF). 1 = :blank: 10 = :excited:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F2wI4Y.png&hash=97bbc0a5125a4033a4606e04d0bd7b2720b84ec4)
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Added a new feature: ChUPAR's Assessment of Football Fun Factor (ChAFFF). 1 = :blank: 10 = :excited:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F2wI4Y.png&hash=97bbc0a5125a4033a4606e04d0bd7b2720b84ec4)
Is ChAFFF directly correlated to spread? If so, why is Georgia / LSU different from Miami / VA or Wisconsin / Michigan?
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It's related to spread as well as the probability for one team to win. The spread is 7, but some teams are more variable than others in their stats so they might have a better chance of just scoring enough points to win.
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Ooops forgot a week there!
WEEK 8
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FB1YHV.png&hash=a8b66cc1e1d5c6bf2a4fc1e7aab790f8c50183c5)
Big 12:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FclQSu.png&hash=3b7b62099d20bb482ff990a27faaed9eb0be81cf)
Matchup:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FdcH7K.png&hash=eac7b3bfb52341c166fa6424fdbe590343484b3e)
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Brought you by bets by brett, its ChUPAR's Picks and ChAFFF
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FoXGVd.png&hash=0bbd3e43a8251d14dc197c241d4d11833165e088)
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Our top 100 streak continues!
:Wha:
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Brought you by bets by brett, its ChUPAR's Picks and ChAFFF
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FoXGVd.png&hash=0bbd3e43a8251d14dc197c241d4d11833165e088)
So I need a little clarification please. We are a 92% to cover the spread? :confused: (ftp://:confused:)
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No that's the prob of winning for the home team.
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No that's the prob of winning for the home team.
So you’re saying there’s a chance!
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Week 9
Top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F0KPIB.png&hash=dc73a48cf5a4edbed0d2b54e84f9de90aa81eeb1)
Because ESPN wants to start talkign playoffs for some odd reason so will I.
CHIngons Preferred Playoff System (ChiPPS), a quick reminder of the system
Automatic bid:
Winner of each P5 conference
Highest ranked Group of 5 member
Two wildcards (two highest ranked P5+ND teams remaining, with the caveat that a conference can have at most two representatives in the playoffs)
As of today:
1) Alabama (proj SEC Champ) vs 8) Utah (proj Pac-12 Champ)
4) Michigan (proj Big Ten Champ) vs 5) Notre Dame (Wildcard)
3) LSU (Wildcard) vs 6) Oklahoma (proj Big 12 Champ)
2) Clemson (proj ACC Champ) vs 7) Ga Southern (G5)
This assumes Alabama wins out, which would easily put them at #1.
Big 12 rankings:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FfZIch.png&hash=a7de5debe67c64fad41a89753e3c8df969eece9f)
Matchup:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FRMwW6.png&hash=c08829bc646d1d0fadf6e6c7a2f248d6e11bd0d5)
This game is winnable, but its hard to predict anything with both of these teams...
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HOLY crap OUR TOP 100 STREAK IS STILL ALIVE!
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HOLY crap OUR TOP 100 STREAK IS STILL ALIVE!
I think we can keep it alive... It'll probably take a loss to KU to drop below 100.
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I admit, if you had told me before the season that we would spend the entire year in the top 100, I wouldn’t have believed you.
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Betting Picks by brought to you by bernt:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FD5M8k.png&hash=d96241f2cec48180a9e11ac6232f331edc2de2a6)
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Chingon, what sort of odds should I be given if I bet now that KSU will win the next 4 games?
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And now ChUPAR takes a bite out of the CFPR.
These are teams that are egregiously OVERRATED:
Washington State at #8 --- No way man, their best win is against Utah and the lost to a mediocre USC team.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fp22Xf.png&hash=7c73b3d71e45d305729b2906e7d156ab1a4ad3cc)
Texas at #17 --- Nu uh. While the win over OU is nice, they have two very bad losses and no victories against anyone else relevant. Plus their total efficiency is pretty low, under 1 (which all top ChUPAR teams have at least 1), hell even below 0.5.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Ff7CrK.png&hash=c3d10fe1624529870141f94cbc10c060c2692456)
Syracuse at #19 --- WTF. I can only guess no one has actually looked up their record. Best win is against NC State? I think people are thinking that the win against FSU was good?
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F4H64Z.png&hash=ee8d7056e7003974af9a8b3b3b85816af5206e0f)
Virginia at #25 ---- Whut? Miami, Duke, and Ohio are the big wins. They lost to Indiana.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F3cAxw.png&hash=a3848cb7fe9d425ceb8c7c3f5eb9739904e227f0)
I was temped to put NC State and Iowa State on notice, but they're just close enough to not be egregious.
These teams are way UNDERRATED:
Ga Southern --- They should be above UCF. They have a better win and the loss to Clemson is nothing to be ashamed of.
These are mid-majors that should be getting a bit more love (and I guess if KSU needs to draw deep to the mid-majors to get a coach keep an eye on these?):
Utah State, Army, App State, Buffalo, UAB.
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Chingon, what sort of odds should I be given if I bet now that KSU will win the next 4 games?
Using the current stats:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FwHXAg.png&hash=da20e7fb961e0b363aef642cba3bfd3ef3d1cf6d)
ChUPAR would say about 199:1 odds
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WEEK 10
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FlfMy2.png&hash=f0be4d030d7ec448e7e3d20726dd6a57075b4636)
Well lookie at #25!
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FBSOHH.png&hash=3c4ea98995618f5838a7516d29d7c1671d5d509f)
Still above 100!
Dillon's Bowl Matchup
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FKohn6.png&hash=207ea8329891a6d2b1580f66258cd498d58a9a89)
Its the only team in the conference clearly worse than us. The thing we have to watch out for is: who takes advantage of mistakes? This year we are pretty bad at it, and oddly enough KU is pretty good.
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ChIPPS
1) Alabama (proj SEC Champ) vs 8) Washington (proj Pac-12 Champ)
4) Georgia (Wildcard) vs 5) Notre Dame (Wildcard)
3) Michigan (proj Big Ten Champ) vs 6) Oklahoma (proj Big 12 Champ)
2) Clemson (proj ACC Champ) vs 7) UCF (G5)
These would be really fun games.
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ChIPPS
1) Alabama (proj SEC Champ) vs 8) Washington (proj Pac-12 Champ)
4) Georgia (Wildcard) vs 5) Notre Dame (Wildcard)
3) Michigan (proj Big Ten Champ) vs 6) Oklahoma (proj Big 12 Champ)
2) Clemson (proj ACC Champ) vs 7) UCF (G5)
These would be really fun games.
Yes they would be.
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Bets bets bets bets by bretts bretts bretts bretts presents: ChUPAR pix
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FyQyI5.png&hash=9d69cd4f1269b3d9c62bd491b0479e1af6f64691)
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ChUPAR takes another bite out of the CFPR.
These are teams that are BADLY OVERRATED:
Washington State at #8 --- Pac 12 is just not good. Stink Park City, USA. Plus, they played a laughably bad non-conference schedule.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FetPTL.png&hash=60867a23665653c1f5522c9ccf0480c89b29de50)
Texas at #19 --- Perhaps the most overrated team in college football. That OU win is being counted for waaay to much. TCU is their next best win. That's right TCU who lost to KU.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FQTGXS.png&hash=9a37c39dac0ebe624fe7fd31f3144f07e06a9717)
Syracuse at #13 --- Still shouldn't be anywhere near here. Best win is against NC State ok, but after that? It's Wake Forest. Classic example of rewarding a team way too much for losing close to a good team (Clemson).
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FpL8aB.png&hash=0b0d9f33d695e5a8abff92a1fb91eb0c57492dea)
Michigan State at #18 --- Losses to NW and Arizona St and too bad to ignore. They do have some good wins though. It's just that their efficiency numbers are too low.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FiEPHb.png&hash=7bfd4e71138e6d4b695c272ac03272a1313efa74)
Auburn at #24 ---- Dude, no way. This is simply a case where being in the SEC West is lifting them up in people's mind. They lost to Tennessee. Offense is a wreck.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FkkhMz.png&hash=68554228620f1a0b436a7a5c728066da042d600d)
Still on notice: NC State, Washington, and Iowa State on notice, but they're just close enough to not be egregious.
These are mid-majors that should be getting a bit more love (and I guess if KSU needs to draw deep to the mid-majors to get a coach keep an eye on these?):
Utah State, Army, App State, Buffalo, UAB, Fresno State, North Texas (!).
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Win-out probability?
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Win-out probability?
2.7%
I'll give you 36:1 odds.
+3600
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Win-out probability?
2.7%
I'll give you 36:1 odds.
+3600
:thumbs:
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For completeness, if anti-Trim was curious:
lose out:
about 18%
23:5
+460
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Ching's odds compare pretty accurately with S&P+. Impressive!
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Week 11
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F4AD5a.png&hash=ff8cce5b34a062bf234e0da43cc3bf3d30a81d07)
Alabama is crazy frightening.
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FcCjE0.png&hash=5522f7642973137d122d7eacfed41dbdc0ff7002)
Still above 100!
Matchup
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FlnIDL.png&hash=5c192cab86e5640ddd9c3c0b267447c702229fac)
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it feels like missouri has had about a decade's worth of devastating losses and boom there they are at #22
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Not sure how the old man makes it happen but I had a dream and it happened so
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Picky picky picks
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FxeqnU.png&hash=cc8817b5fed5354f373ffedd84f2e7091ae826b1)
:surprised: at UAB vs Texas A&M which is a -16.5.
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Picky picky picks
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FxeqnU.png&hash=cc8817b5fed5354f373ffedd84f2e7091ae826b1)
:surprised: at UAB vs Texas A&M which is a -16.5.
snowbrag has UAB -3.5 :sdeek:
thought maybe computer models in general love them some UAB......nope massey has A&M -20.5 :frown:
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chings have you ever thought about creating a "luck" factor, like just for fun to see which teams are better/worse than their record suggests? i got the idea from kenpom
snowbrag luck rankings:
1. ucf +0.27
2. syracuse +0.26
3. washington state +0.26
.
.
.
84. kansas state 0.00
.
.
.
128. nebraska -0.16
129. north carolina -0.23
130. ucla -0.28
we're not lucky or unlucky, we suck the precise amount of crap we're supposed to :frown:
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ChUPAR takes yet another bite out of the CFPR. They are quite silly these days.
These are teams that are BADLY OVERRATED:
Texas at #15 --- Amazing. 25 spots higher than where ChUPAR would put them.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F4bVcy.png&hash=8592710413deb6a6a50e6c20d1658d99c3c5462b)
Syracuse at #12 --- 15 Spots higher than they should be. Still no wins againts teams in the ChUPAR Top 25.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FpgLNm.png&hash=c86459daf1a1c7fbd0c73fd6ef23216dce5f0dba)
Northwestern at #22 --- They lost to Akron. Akron. Best win is against Iowa. They are here only because they won the Big 12 West, which is the modern day B12 North.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FZj1Yv.png&hash=bc99778953d0bac15c462ef0f86ff27516f06978)
Washington at #18---- Sorry but the Pac 12 is too weak. Loss to Auburn is looking worse each week.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FY82bJ.png&hash=6e46364fef51394267d61488a03e5deb3983860b)
Still on notice: Iowa State
These are mid-majors that should be getting a bit more love (and I guess if KSU needs to draw deep to the mid-majors to get a coach keep an eye on these?):
Utah State, Army, App State, Buffalo, UAB, Fresno State
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chings have you ever thought about creating a "luck" factor, like just for fun to see which teams are better/worse than their record suggests? i got the idea from kenpom
snowbrag luck rankings:
1. ucf +0.27
2. syracuse +0.26
3. washington state +0.26
.
.
.
84. kansas state 0.00
.
.
.
128. nebraska -0.16
129. north carolina -0.23
130. ucla -0.28
we're not lucky or unlucky, we suck the precise amount of crap we're supposed to :frown:
Sure thats a good an idea and easy to do, in my case its actual record - winp
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Picky picky picks
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FxeqnU.png&hash=cc8817b5fed5354f373ffedd84f2e7091ae826b1)
what do you have for #p12ad Herms @ Ducks?
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chings have you ever thought about creating a "luck" factor, like just for fun to see which teams are better/worse than their record suggests? i got the idea from kenpom
snowbrag luck rankings:
1. ucf +0.27
2. syracuse +0.26
3. washington state +0.26
.
.
.
84. kansas state 0.00
.
.
.
128. nebraska -0.16
129. north carolina -0.23
130. ucla -0.28
we're not lucky or unlucky, we suck the precise amount of crap we're supposed to :frown:
Sure thats a good an idea and easy to do, in my case its actual record - winp
Luck for top 25
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FxXKWG.png&hash=e4f02f59a1578196c232ef588d4dbfe63a1889fa)
Big 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FQ7Mbm.png&hash=7132a0a075b94c5c34b274ec5dbdff09b6bd0102)
Luckiest:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FvabpL.png&hash=a3a7311b9e9f10daa070b75e53c613ff1daed020)
Unluckiest:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FtJnqj.png&hash=474e63ad2115b921c91718a55de894216118f881)
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fc2e47.png&hash=49e55f8570ae300f82e67634fccaa7ea28d1c0a9)
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Picky picky picks
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FxeqnU.png&hash=cc8817b5fed5354f373ffedd84f2e7091ae826b1)
:surprised: at UAB vs Texas A&M which is a -16.5.
snowbrag has UAB -3.5 :sdeek:
thought maybe computer models in general love them some UAB......nope massey has A&M -20.5 :frown:
:blank:
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Wow Massey was perfect!
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Picky picky picks
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FxeqnU.png&hash=cc8817b5fed5354f373ffedd84f2e7091ae826b1)
:surprised: at UAB vs Texas A&M which is a -16.5.
STILL top 100, and with our huge upset victory yesterday, I am guessing that we are a lock to complete the year inside 100.
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WEEK 12
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F38qAN.png&hash=d956888bc122c7592135f56ae26614e3586d097f)
Big 12 (don't show this this to Bob!)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FmbBor.png&hash=1965d7578b2053b745ae04795e1367754d0b4294)
Matchup:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F52uTB.png&hash=053bb19020bb28e2ecc551e180e5265f74d7744f)
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ChIPPS
1) Alabama (proj SEC Champ) vs 8) Washington State (proj Pac-12 Champ)
4) Georgia (Wildcard) vs 5) Notre Dame (Wildcard)
3) Michigan (proj Big Ten Champ) vs 6) UCF (G5)
2) Clemson (proj ACC Champ) vs 7) Oklahoma (proj Big 12 Champ)
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Can you do Alabama vs Oakland Raiders
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WEEK 13
Added a new column, "sos" which is the strength of the schedule (0 = lowest 1= highest). This doesn't directly effect the ChUPAR (X) ranking, but I thought it was interesting to show. Remember I think accomplishment (who you actually beat and lose to) is better to look at than sos (simply who you played).
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FGeIwt.png&hash=335ccd7f902c6161d918426c5cade6654504b4f0)
Texas A&M played the toughest schedule this year and North Texas played the weakest (see below for more details on that interesting nugget).
Big 12:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2F844PP.png&hash=9f077774785ea7072a485e475f9080b6cb29e6e8)
Our KSU Wildcats had the toughest schedule this year (due to Miss State and well being the second worst team in the conference), just eeking out TCU. We did stay above 100 all year!
I know there are conflicting thoughts on it, but ChUPAR is also not impressed with the special teams performance from the 'cats this season. Only ISU and KU were less efficient.
The unluckiest team in the conference was Texas Tech, which meant so long to Kliffff.
Game by game stats:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FyFpIa.png&hash=c48a6390b700237432000f46193b49e18d910902)
I thought it would be interesting to compare KSU with North Texas:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FUcZm0.png&hash=a030e339b1bd3615bf67a412c931e22e84ec83b9)
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Wait, with a ranking of 31, are you saying that North Texas is better than 80% of the BigXII? Is that how to read this?
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Wait, with a ranking of 31, are you saying that North Texas is better than 80% of the BigXII? Is that how to read this?
It's not saying it would beat all of the teams ranked below it, but North Texas deserves to be ranked higher than all of them except WVU and OU.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Ftj0NB.png&hash=8d95c073210da142f9b2ac2ad22e4d1628dc4b6b)
That's mostly due to them having pretty good efficiency stats (look at either totalE or winp). The Big 12 as a whole was not impressive this year. The best OOC wins for the conference were Boise State and Army.
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KU should hang a banner for cracking the top 3 "Best wins" for another team
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FCu8qK.png&hash=e1ebef178860ae76f4536b428e1862303d96c52d)
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KU should hang a banner for cracking the top 3 "Best wins" for another team
We were a self-fumble away from finishing last in the Big 12, how scary is that?
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KU should hang a banner for cracking the top 3 "Best wins" for another team
This might happen more often than you realize. Any team with 3 or less total wins that happens to beat KU would put them in the top 3.
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So grateful that LHCBS finished the regular in the top 100.
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Final Rankings:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2Fm6Z9Q.png&hash=2606dd1ed68d173b16015ad1d7652a26458902fa)
Now who was the "best" according to efficiency numbers?
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FA4Aik.png&hash=e682c4648c1c9037e5973f2d35059ad428f72dab)
Who "deserves" to be ranked highest (soley on wins and losses)?
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FNJeIL.png&hash=2022699cb3a46608620bfc0073fc6f6ac669a56d)
ChUPAR is the combination of the two above.
Big 12:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.stack.imgur.com%2FA7mDN.png&hash=21dbf26df425b5666411edce17efea88bb69da1a)