2020 presidential candidate 'crats

[Spracne]

I have such a Pete boner, tbh.

[Spracne]

He has the moderate flavors I savor, as my good bud stevedave would say (or should say).

[Spracne]

I mean, he's the smartest person. Let's just give it to him. I trust him in the off chance we actually need him to make important decisions.

[Spracne]

Don't really care that he's all fake and what not. Only care about intelligence/competence.

[sys]

buttigieg presumably has some pretty good intel that they won at least one of the reported votes.  otherwise, the media is gonna drag him for this.

https://twitter.com/paigelav/status/1224565861823938560

[Spracne]

buttigieg presumably has some pretty good intel that they won at least one of the reported votes.  otherwise, the media is gonna drag him for this.

https://twitter.com/paigelav/status/1224565861823938560

Oh really? Would you "drag" him for it if he only got 2d or 3d?

[sys]

i'm saying i think he probably knows he won, spracne.

[Spracne]

i'm saying i think he probably knows he won, spracne.

But if he didn't, what then?

[MakeItRain]

Did any of this matter?

Isn't that your decision to make?

[MakeItRain]

i'm saying i think he probably knows he won, spracne.

But if he didn't, what then?

I think so as well but the number of delegates awarded will be nearly identical for the top three or four. They all have victory speeches with the exception of Sleepy Joe.

[sys]

i'm saying i think he probably knows he won, spracne.

But if he didn't, what then?

then he's taking a risk that i don't think is warranted.

[catastrophe]

Meh.  In my years on this earth, one thing I've learned is that it's usually not THAT much of a risk to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction.  Most people don't have the time or energy to remember you were wrong, but if you end up being right you can shove it into everyone's faces whenever you want.

[Trim]

Did any of this matter?

Isn't that your decision to make?

No. If it was, I’d declare that it didn’t and officially appoint Biden as the nominee. I’m asking if whatever the results of this thing were will have any impact on who the nominee ends up being.

[MakeItRain]

Did any of this matter?

Isn't that your decision to make?

No. If it was, I’d declare that it didn’t and officially appoint Biden as the nominee. I’m asking if whatever the results of this thing were will have any impact on who the nominee ends up being.

You're almost assuredly not asking that question in good faith. The question is so stripped of nuance that it's difficult to ascertain what you're fishing for.

Iowa will award 41 delegates out of the 3979 total delegates awarded, that's firmly midrange for all states and territories reporting. However of the four earthly reporting states, it's more than a fourth of the delegates available. Whenever these results come in, they will reflect the smallest number of delegates awarded to the winner in the history of the caucuses. The differences between the number of delegates awarded to 1st place and 5th place will be less than 7 delegates, or approximately 1/3 of 1% of the delegates needed to reach the 1990 delegates needed to win. That's the data, you figure out what that means to you.

Having read this thread beyond the last 24 hours, I would guess that one would know going in that the number of delegates awarded in this caucus really isn't the point, at all.

[MakeItRain]

I've been hesitant to outright call Pete and his campaign scummy, far be it from me to intentionally hurt catastrophe and spracne's feelings. However, what Pete's communication director in Iowa did tonight is 100% scumbag behavior.

https://twitter.com/bhalle87/status/1224558925946793985

If you're not able to follow, this dude tweeted out the pin number that the caucus workers have to use to report the votes. Least you think he did it on accident, by my count he did it 17 different times. To repeat the communications director of for Pete Buttigieg gave out 17 different pin numbers that are used to report results. He still hasn't taken them down despite literally hundreds of people letting him know what he did.

[MakeItRain]

Also he keeps pointing out districts that Pete won that Trump won in the 2016 general, as if that rough ridin' matters one damn bit. These numbers are so small that there literally may be one, maybe two disaffected trump voters represented in each precinct.

[Trim]

Did any of this matter?

Isn't that your decision to make?

No. If it was, I’d declare that it didn’t and officially appoint Biden as the nominee. I’m asking if whatever the results of this thing were will have any impact on who the nominee ends up being.

You're almost assuredly not asking that question in good faith. The question is so stripped of nuance that it's difficult to ascertain what you're fishing for.

Iowa will award 41 delegates out of the 3979 total delegates awarded, that's firmly midrange for all states and territories reporting. However of the four earthly reporting states, it's more than a fourth of the delegates available. Whenever these results come in, they will reflect the smallest number of delegates awarded to the winner in the history of the caucuses. The differences between the number of delegates awarded to 1st place and 5th place will be less than 7 delegates, or approximately 1/3 of 1% of the delegates needed to reach the 1990 delegates needed to win. That's the data, you figure out what that means to you.

Having read this thread beyond the last 24 hours, I would guess that one would know going in that the number of delegates awarded in this caucus really isn't the point, at all.

Well yeah, I read earlier that this thing historically means more than raw iowa delegate numbers, in that it shapes perceptions in future states or even motivates people to quit. With as much of a lol clusterfuck as it was and with that being more visible than ever before, I’m guessing it won’t have that historical effect and the whole thing will be largely dismissed. If so, it won’t have mattered, aside from the rest of the world now joining us in iowa mockery.

[MakeItRain]

Did any of this matter?

Isn't that your decision to make?

No. If it was, I’d declare that it didn’t and officially appoint Biden as the nominee. I’m asking if whatever the results of this thing were will have any impact on who the nominee ends up being.

You're almost assuredly not asking that question in good faith. The question is so stripped of nuance that it's difficult to ascertain what you're fishing for.

Iowa will award 41 delegates out of the 3979 total delegates awarded, that's firmly midrange for all states and territories reporting. However of the four earthly reporting states, it's more than a fourth of the delegates available. Whenever these results come in, they will reflect the smallest number of delegates awarded to the winner in the history of the caucuses. The differences between the number of delegates awarded to 1st place and 5th place will be less than 7 delegates, or approximately 1/3 of 1% of the delegates needed to reach the 1990 delegates needed to win. That's the data, you figure out what that means to you.

Having read this thread beyond the last 24 hours, I would guess that one would know going in that the number of delegates awarded in this caucus really isn't the point, at all.

Well yeah, I read earlier that this thing historically means more than raw iowa delegate numbers, in that it shapes perceptions in future states or even motivates people to quit. With as much of a lol clusterfuck as it was and with that being more visible than ever before, I’m guessing it won’t have that historical effect and the whole thing will be largely dismissed. If so, it won’t have mattered, aside from the rest of the world now joining us in iowa mockery.

On it's best, it provides momentum for candidates like Klo who haven't been polling well, but it isn't going to make a candidate who was barely viable, a front runner. Ted Cruz won in 2016, it didn't do crap for him. Iowa results would never cause a candidate to quit, that's dumb. If someone quit after Iowa there was nothing that can save them. People quit because they run out of money or face scandal. Iowa results carry weight for literally 2-3 days before people focus on New Hampshire and South Carolina. It's why Biden is going to do poorly here but he'll swing back on Klobuchar quickly because she's going to get completely skullfucked in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

[MakeItRain]

And stop acting like Washington State isn't filled with hobos, the klan, and weirdo militia doomsday preppers. It's Colorado with more white people, shittier food and weather. This is embarrassing especially given the population of the state.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2019-11-13/fbi-report-california-washington-report-highest-number-of-hate-crimes

[MakeItRain]

Bernie Sanders and his henchman Jeff Weaver wins the award for crybaby dickbag of the night.

https://twitter.com/HCTrudo/status/1224578194948468739

What the eff is the point of releasing internal data from 40% of the precincts? As if this matters for anything in the world. They are going to cry about a fix when the actual numbers don't match what they have. I'm so rough ridin' sick of this campaign and all of their bullshit.

[sys]

i think it's more important than that.  this (assuming what we half know is accurate) is a really shitty result for biden and really good for buttigieg.  biden was already low on money and struggling to raise more (for a frontrunner).  this will make it that much more difficult.  he's not going to have the money to match sanders in advertising in nevada and south carolina.

and there's only like 2-3 days between south carolina and super tuesday.


at any rate, it'll be interesting to see if party actors abandon biden (they've never really consolidated on him) or panic and go looking where else they can land (probably warren).

[MakeItRain]

I agree with all of that other than I don't know how long Buttigieg will be able to carry any momentum. He'll come out of NH third in delegates, at best, then he's going to get bashed in SC and NV. I think he needed more than essentially a 4 way tie. Klobuchar can really make some centrist momentum if she can cash in at NH. The big winner from tonight has to be Bloomberg as the moderate vote seems to be more wide open than anyone thought. NH is going to be astronomical for Biden. I think he panics and starts to make mistakes. Next debate is Friday night.

[sonofdaxjones]

Lol

https://twitter.com/johnpemble/status/1224520318854799361?s=21

[steve dave]

He has the moderate flavors I savor, as my good bud stevedave would say (or should say).

Oh I say it


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[chum1]

To me, what's happening is more of an argument to keep caucuses. I've been enjoying all of it.

https://twitter.com/lyzl/status/1224586186888482818