Author Topic: Kentucky  (Read 5992 times)

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Offline Powercat Posse

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Kentucky
« on: March 19, 2018, 09:53:56 PM »
Glancing at some of UK team stats and game logs, here are a few things I took away...

Offense -
1) In their 18 SEC Regular season games, they only shot 15 3pt per game, making 5 (33.0%)
2) Their overall eFG was 49.2 in those 18 games
3) Have a good FTR of 45.0 in the 18 games
4) They are 9-1 in last 10 games overall, and their shooting has been much better. It is 56.2 over that time

Defense -
1) They defend the 3 pretty well.  Their last 24 games(so since start of SEC games) 42% of Opponents shots are from 3. However, teams are shooting only 29.2% from 3.  Only 2x in 24 games has a team made 40% or better.
2) In those 24 games, teams are making right around 50% on 2pt.
3) They don't force a lot of TOs. From a quick glance, I only saw 1 time in the 24 games that they forced 20.0% on TO.



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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2018, 10:31:09 PM »
UK is Very tall. However 3 of their big guys don't play a lot of minutes.

 6'11Richards starts but doesn't Play much. He ave 14-15 minutes on the year. He's only played 10+ minutes once in the last 9 games.
 6'10 Killeya-Jones comes off the bench.  He has played 82 minutes the past 5 games (Ave 13.7 minutes on the year). 6'9 Vanderbilt has not played in the last 5 games because of injury (he played in 13 of 18 Regular season SEC games). His status for our game is still not known. 

They have gone to a 8 man rotation the past 5 games.
4 guys play most of the minutes at the 1-3 spots. Their 2 best players, 6'6 Gilgeous-Alexander 6'9 Knox and 6'5 Diallo start. 6'0 Green comes off the bench.

6'7 Washington starts alongside the 6'11Richards in the frontcourt. 6'9 Gabriel has played a lot lately. He could play the 3 but mainly plays the 4 now.  Already mentioned the 6'10 Killeya-Jones
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 11:15:10 PM by Powercat Posse »

Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2018, 11:02:00 PM »
1) Gilgeous-Alexander is Ave 19.4 pts last 9 games. Done that on 59.7 eFG and 52-62 FTs.  This will be who Barry guards.

2) Last 10 games Knox is shooting 31% on 3pt and 47.4 eFG

3) Gabriel has made 17 of Last 28 from 3pt the past 7 games. He's 40% on the year

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2018, 11:25:20 PM »
Too many players with hyphenated last names, imho
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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2018, 05:23:21 AM »
They're peaking well. Will be a tough game for our Cats. Let's hope the lockdown defense works like it has the last two games.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2018, 06:00:32 AM »
I think we have a shot if dean plays at the level he played at pre injury.  I do think bbj will frustrate them defensively in a way they haven’t been yet in the tourney.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline renocat

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2018, 08:20:11 AM »
1) Gilgeous-Alexander is Ave 19.4 pts last 9 games. Done that on 59.7 eFG and 52-62 FTs.  This will be who Barry guards.

2) Last 10 games Knox is shooting 31% on 3pt and 47.4 eFG

3) Gabriel has made 17 of Last 28 from 3pt the past 7 games. He's 40% on the year
From what I am reading and hearing GileousAlexander is the one that makes Kentucky go.  So if Brown shuts him down, it may discombobulate the yougsters.  Sneed has to have a great game.  The last time we played them the mid range shots seem to give them fits. 

Offline kslim

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2018, 09:41:04 AM »
we will have to score at least 80 to win, we have to have sneed make a couple of threes and hopefully kam (which we all know oscar is riding that broken horse until the end) comes out of his mumped up stint he is in. they are going to do what they do and block some stuff in the paint but thankfully for us both dean and mak can hit jumpers which will hopefully spread them out.

Offline Odd1

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2018, 09:51:37 AM »
Generally speaking, are players with hyphenated last names even that good?  Asking for a friend.

Offline KITNfury

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2018, 09:55:03 AM »
I'm really skeptical Dean's stress fracture can be good enough after 2 weeks. I really wish he would have been healthy for the tourney, but I just can't see how he can be effective.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2018, 10:05:30 AM »
I’m still very confused about the injury myself. If he’s good enough to play I would have expected him in vs Creighton. But the talking point has always been he can play if he’s needed—we just haven’t needed him yet. I guess that still works since we were never really in trouble vs Creighton and followed that up with a 16 seed game, but I am now sure that if he doesn’t start vs Kentucky he’s not coming off the bench.

Offline SkinnyBenny

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2018, 10:18:53 AM »
Generally speaking, are players with hyphenated last names even that good?  Asking for a friend.


Is your friend Jordan Henriquez-Roberts?
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Offline catastrophe

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2018, 10:29:12 AM »
Didn’t he used to just go by one name? Need breakdown from our stats guys as to whether he was better before or after hyphenation.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #13 on: March 20, 2018, 10:30:39 AM »
I did the scout for gE on this opponent and here's what I've discovered:

they are pretty good, not great.

Offline steve dave

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #14 on: March 20, 2018, 10:31:17 AM »
unfortunately it's a bad match up for us because we're only kinda good.

Offline gatoveintisiete

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #15 on: March 20, 2018, 10:31:39 AM »
Zone’em
it’s not like I’m tired of WINNING, but dude, let me catch my breath.

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #16 on: March 20, 2018, 10:41:07 AM »
we will have to score at least 80 to win, we have to have sneed make a couple of threes and hopefully kam (which we all know oscar is riding that broken horse until the end) comes out of his mumped up stint he is in. they are going to do what they do and block some stuff in the paint but thankfully for us both dean and mak can hit jumpers which will hopefully spread them out.
In their losses they were shutdown in the 60's, so I don't believe this to be totally true, We'll need to muddy up the game, that's for sure.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2018, 10:55:21 AM by WackyCat08 »

Offline I_have_purplewood

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2018, 10:49:38 AM »
I'm pretty sure Frank with let Oscar borrow his notes on Kentucky.  That's what bro's do.
Fifteen minutes later, when the Kansas locker room opened its doors to the media, the Jayhawks were still crying. Literally, bawling. All of them. I've never seen anything like it, and I've seen devastated college locker rooms -- after losses in the Final Four, the national championship game -- ever

Offline Trim

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #18 on: March 20, 2018, 10:53:52 AM »
As always, both teams will get an adequate number of fine shot opportunities, and it will be a matter of who is better at making them that day.

Offline KITNfury

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2018, 10:55:58 AM »
Same injury as Kam.
I'm not sure if you're agreeing w/ me or what, but Stokes was out for almost a month and has - with the Creighton game exception -  sucked since.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline HELLHAMMER

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2018, 11:40:06 AM »
The real question is "Are Kentucky fans bigger twats than KU fans?". Pretty tough to differentiate the two for me.
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Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2018, 11:46:44 AM »
Since UK started SEC play, they have played 24 games. They went 16-8. Some more facts in those 24...

1) In 6 of their 8 losses, they shot under 24% from 3pt. They shot 6-15, but lost by 11 at aTm, who scored 1.15 PPP. They shot 6-16, but lost by 13 at Fla, who scored 1.25 PPP

2) They shot 30% or better on 3pt in 14 of their wins. They shot 29% vs GA in the SEC tourney(won by 13) and went 0-6 vs Davidson in Rd of 64(won by 5)

3) only 6 times has a team shot 33.3% or better on 3pt and 45.0% or better on 2pt.  Those 6 games --
* Lost by 11 at Tenn
*won by 1 vs aTm
* Won by 2 vs Vandy in OT
* Lost by 11 at aTm
* Lost by 13 at Fla
* Won by 5 vs Davidson in Rd of 64

So 3 losses and 2 close games vs teams that aren't nearly as good as UK

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #22 on: March 20, 2018, 11:59:56 AM »
We're going to have to defend really well. They are really efficient (1.20 ppp) in their last 10 games which is why they have won 9. They are elite at oboarding and getting to the FT line, but making shots (especially 3s as Posse pointed out) and reducing TOs has been their key. They are really good defensively, especially eFG% and 3PT% defense. I do like that they aren't a heavy TO% defense, which should help us.

Also, against the longest Big 12 teams that like to oboard (TCU, Baylor, OSU) we went 6-1. None of those are great comps to Kentucky outside of that, but we've handled length and rebounding teams better than I thought. Kentucky isn't an elite ball pressure defense team like Tech or WVU, so that makes me feel better too.

Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #23 on: March 20, 2018, 12:06:34 PM »
So while only 26.6% of their shots were from 3pt in those 24 games, they still lost all but 1 game when they missed 3/4 of their 3s.  Half of those 24games , they shot 36% or better (went 10-2)

I'm more concerned about our offense.  If we can somehow make 1/3 of our 3s and hit 45% on 2pt, we should be right there with a chance to win (Remember UK allowed about 49.0% on 2pt in those 24 games)
« Last Edit: March 20, 2018, 12:16:01 PM by Powercat Posse »

Offline meow meow

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Re: Kentucky
« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2018, 12:07:28 PM »
gonna need to see some more stats