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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Jerome Tang Coaches Kansas State Basketball => Topic started by: Powercat Posse on March 19, 2018, 09:53:56 PM
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Glancing at some of UK team stats and game logs, here are a few things I took away...
Offense -
1) In their 18 SEC Regular season games, they only shot 15 3pt per game, making 5 (33.0%)
2) Their overall eFG was 49.2 in those 18 games
3) Have a good FTR of 45.0 in the 18 games
4) They are 9-1 in last 10 games overall, and their shooting has been much better. It is 56.2 over that time
Defense -
1) They defend the 3 pretty well. Their last 24 games(so since start of SEC games) 42% of Opponents shots are from 3. However, teams are shooting only 29.2% from 3. Only 2x in 24 games has a team made 40% or better.
2) In those 24 games, teams are making right around 50% on 2pt.
3) They don't force a lot of TOs. From a quick glance, I only saw 1 time in the 24 games that they forced 20.0% on TO.
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UK is Very tall. However 3 of their big guys don't play a lot of minutes.
6'11Richards starts but doesn't Play much. He ave 14-15 minutes on the year. He's only played 10+ minutes once in the last 9 games.
6'10 Killeya-Jones comes off the bench. He has played 82 minutes the past 5 games (Ave 13.7 minutes on the year). 6'9 Vanderbilt has not played in the last 5 games because of injury (he played in 13 of 18 Regular season SEC games). His status for our game is still not known.
They have gone to a 8 man rotation the past 5 games.
4 guys play most of the minutes at the 1-3 spots. Their 2 best players, 6'6 Gilgeous-Alexander 6'9 Knox and 6'5 Diallo start. 6'0 Green comes off the bench.
6'7 Washington starts alongside the 6'11Richards in the frontcourt. 6'9 Gabriel has played a lot lately. He could play the 3 but mainly plays the 4 now. Already mentioned the 6'10 Killeya-Jones
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1) Gilgeous-Alexander is Ave 19.4 pts last 9 games. Done that on 59.7 eFG and 52-62 FTs. This will be who Barry guards.
2) Last 10 games Knox is shooting 31% on 3pt and 47.4 eFG
3) Gabriel has made 17 of Last 28 from 3pt the past 7 games. He's 40% on the year
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Too many players with hyphenated last names, imho
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They're peaking well. Will be a tough game for our Cats. Let's hope the lockdown defense works like it has the last two games.
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I think we have a shot if dean plays at the level he played at pre injury. I do think bbj will frustrate them defensively in a way they haven’t been yet in the tourney.
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1) Gilgeous-Alexander is Ave 19.4 pts last 9 games. Done that on 59.7 eFG and 52-62 FTs. This will be who Barry guards.
2) Last 10 games Knox is shooting 31% on 3pt and 47.4 eFG
3) Gabriel has made 17 of Last 28 from 3pt the past 7 games. He's 40% on the year
From what I am reading and hearing GileousAlexander is the one that makes Kentucky go. So if Brown shuts him down, it may discombobulate the yougsters. Sneed has to have a great game. The last time we played them the mid range shots seem to give them fits.
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we will have to score at least 80 to win, we have to have sneed make a couple of threes and hopefully kam (which we all know oscar is riding that broken horse until the end) comes out of his mumped up stint he is in. they are going to do what they do and block some stuff in the paint but thankfully for us both dean and mak can hit jumpers which will hopefully spread them out.
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Generally speaking, are players with hyphenated last names even that good? Asking for a friend.
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I'm really skeptical Dean's stress fracture can be good enough after 2 weeks. I really wish he would have been healthy for the tourney, but I just can't see how he can be effective.
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I’m still very confused about the injury myself. If he’s good enough to play I would have expected him in vs Creighton. But the talking point has always been he can play if he’s needed—we just haven’t needed him yet. I guess that still works since we were never really in trouble vs Creighton and followed that up with a 16 seed game, but I am now sure that if he doesn’t start vs Kentucky he’s not coming off the bench.
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Generally speaking, are players with hyphenated last names even that good? Asking for a friend.
Is your friend Jordan Henriquez-Roberts?
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Didn’t he used to just go by one name? Need breakdown from our stats guys as to whether he was better before or after hyphenation.
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I did the scout for gE on this opponent and here's what I've discovered:
they are pretty good, not great.
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unfortunately it's a bad match up for us because we're only kinda good.
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Zone’em
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we will have to score at least 80 to win, we have to have sneed make a couple of threes and hopefully kam (which we all know oscar is riding that broken horse until the end) comes out of his mumped up stint he is in. they are going to do what they do and block some stuff in the paint but thankfully for us both dean and mak can hit jumpers which will hopefully spread them out.
In their losses they were shutdown in the 60's, so I don't believe this to be totally true, We'll need to muddy up the game, that's for sure.
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I'm pretty sure Frank with let Oscar borrow his notes on Kentucky. That's what bro's do.
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As always, both teams will get an adequate number of fine shot opportunities, and it will be a matter of who is better at making them that day.
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Same injury as Kam.
I'm not sure if you're agreeing w/ me or what, but Stokes was out for almost a month and has - with the Creighton game exception - sucked since.
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The real question is "Are Kentucky fans bigger twats than KU fans?". Pretty tough to differentiate the two for me.
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Since UK started SEC play, they have played 24 games. They went 16-8. Some more facts in those 24...
1) In 6 of their 8 losses, they shot under 24% from 3pt. They shot 6-15, but lost by 11 at aTm, who scored 1.15 PPP. They shot 6-16, but lost by 13 at Fla, who scored 1.25 PPP
2) They shot 30% or better on 3pt in 14 of their wins. They shot 29% vs GA in the SEC tourney(won by 13) and went 0-6 vs Davidson in Rd of 64(won by 5)
3) only 6 times has a team shot 33.3% or better on 3pt and 45.0% or better on 2pt. Those 6 games --
* Lost by 11 at Tenn
*won by 1 vs aTm
* Won by 2 vs Vandy in OT
* Lost by 11 at aTm
* Lost by 13 at Fla
* Won by 5 vs Davidson in Rd of 64
So 3 losses and 2 close games vs teams that aren't nearly as good as UK
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We're going to have to defend really well. They are really efficient (1.20 ppp) in their last 10 games which is why they have won 9. They are elite at oboarding and getting to the FT line, but making shots (especially 3s as Posse pointed out) and reducing TOs has been their key. They are really good defensively, especially eFG% and 3PT% defense. I do like that they aren't a heavy TO% defense, which should help us.
Also, against the longest Big 12 teams that like to oboard (TCU, Baylor, OSU) we went 6-1. None of those are great comps to Kentucky outside of that, but we've handled length and rebounding teams better than I thought. Kentucky isn't an elite ball pressure defense team like Tech or WVU, so that makes me feel better too.
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So while only 26.6% of their shots were from 3pt in those 24 games, they still lost all but 1 game when they missed 3/4 of their 3s. Half of those 24games , they shot 36% or better (went 10-2)
I'm more concerned about our offense. If we can somehow make 1/3 of our 3s and hit 45% on 2pt, we should be right there with a chance to win (Remember UK allowed about 49.0% on 2pt in those 24 games)
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gonna need to see some more stats
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I do feel a bit better about what FAN said with his comparisons to the Big 12 teams
I'm also hoping Jarred Vanderbilt is still sidelined by his injury or very limited against us. That dude is a Rebounding monster. He's missed time with injuries and only played 238 minutes. But per 40 minutes, he's Ave 10.75 DR and 7.75 OR. Yikes!
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Really hoping that they are just completely over looking us and the refs let us play however we want and mak and barry are never in foul troubs.
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Really hoping that they are just completely over looking us and the refs let us play however we want and mak and barry are never in foul troubs.
Our D has been really good of late, and the FTR we allow has also gone down.
The last 11 games that we have had Barry, we have allowed 47.2 eFG, 32.0 3Pt%, 46.7 2Pt% and 0.95 PPP
The FTR allowed in those 11 was 32.5.
The 11 games prior to that (10 Big12 and Georgia) we allowed 39.4 FTR
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The SEC hates Kentucky so we should at least have all of them on our side.
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Greg what in the world are you talking about? The SEC loves the SEC
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I think if we can do 2 or these 3 things, we will win---
1) KState winning the 3pt% battle.
* Cats are 11-1 in last 20 when we win it
2) Win TO battle by 3-4 or more. 3-4 would be about 4.5- 6.0 on TO%. We won't win the OR battle but can surely win the TO one.
3) Limit UK to 15 or fewer FT makes. This should mean their FTR is below or well below their norm. UK has made 15 or fewer 7 times last 24 games. They are 2-5 in such games. Our Cats have been better on Defensive FTR lately. In the last 12 games, we only are allowing 11.2 FT makes (32% FTR)
** UK is a good OR team. Our Cats have been doing basically everything better on Defense the last 6 weeks and that includes DR. In our last 12 games, if you take out the final 3:00 of the Creighton game, we are allowing 26.7 OR%. We were up 62-48 on CU, and let them get 9 ORs. Bad 3 minutes, but improved Defensive Rebounding by Us for sure
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Your last point is my concern. I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like a good offensive rebounding team beats us all of the time and a bad orb team gets beat by us all of the time. I hope I'm not right but it feels/seems like that.
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Doesn’t that go to _fan’s point about UK being comparable to teams like Baylor and Texas? I suspect they are both pretty high in the O-boarding department(without bothering to look it up, of course).
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One thing I can say for certain, their fans are crap. And I'm not talking about their confidence in winning this game. They are pretty confident, but I mean I would be too if I were a blue blood facing a team like K-State. But over the week I've been reading their forum and they have no sense of humor. Like none. I haven't read one post that made me chuckle. Seriously. That's hard to do, most forums have a few witty posters, and they have a very active forum. I'm assuming they are following Calipari's lead here, but they are a seriously sensitive paranoid bunch. They think the media is out to get them. LOL what? I'd say "go visit, it's a treat", but it's not. Really.
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spring ball starts up next week, and we get to pound another "blue blood" tonight shorthanded in a sport 90% of our fans don't care about, life is good
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Your last point is my concern. I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like a good offensive rebounding team beats us all of the time and a bad orb team gets beat by us all of the time. I hope I'm not right but it feels/seems like that.
When opponents rebound 33% or more of their missed shots we are 14-4. When the OR% differential between us and our opponents is negative (meaning we get beat on the boards) we are 15-8 and have won our last 10.
So naw, our deficiencies in rebounding haven't really made a difference in winning and losing this year.
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Your last point is my concern. I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like a good offensive rebounding team beats us all of the time and a bad orb team gets beat by us all of the time. I hope I'm not right but it feels/seems like that.
When opponents rebound 33% or more of their missed shots we are 14-4. When the OR% differential between us and our opponents is negative (meaning we get beat on the boards) we are 15-8 and have won our last 10.
So naw, our deficiencies in rebounding haven't really made a difference in winning and losing this year.
I've always considered a missed rebound negative turnover and a gained rebound a turnover against out opponent. I'm not a stats guy, but I wonder what the total rebounds plus forced turnovers vs the same for the opponent affect the outcome of our games this year.
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The math says rebounding doesn't have quite the same weight as turnovers. Better shooting is 40%. TO rate is 25%. Oboarding percentage is 20%. FT rate is 15%. K-State is generally better than opponents in shooting and TOs which makes up for poor rebounding.
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I really hope #2 Vanderbilt is out or barely plays. One report yesterday thought he was unlikely to play, but it's a game time decision
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The math says rebounding doesn't have quite the same weight as turnovers. Better shooting is 40%. TO rate is 25%. Oboarding percentage is 20%. FT rate is 15%. K-State is generally better than opponents in shooting and TOs which makes up for poor rebounding.
kind of makes sense, getting a turnover isn't just gaining a possession but also is a defensive stop.
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:emawkid:
Your last point is my concern. I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like a good offensive rebounding team beats us all of the time and a bad orb team gets beat by us all of the time. I hope I'm not right but it feels/seems like that.
When opponents rebound 33% or more of their missed shots we are 14-4. When the OR% differential between us and our opponents is negative (meaning we get beat on the boards) we are 15-8 and have won our last 10.
So naw, our deficiencies in rebounding haven't really made a difference in winning and losing this year.
:thumbs: thanks. For whatever reason it sure doesn't feel that way.
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The math says rebounding doesn't have quite the same weight as turnovers. Better shooting is 40%. TO rate is 25%. Oboarding percentage is 20%. FT rate is 15%. K-State is generally better than opponents in shooting and TOs which makes up for poor rebounding.
This is good stuff
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The math says rebounding doesn't have quite the same weight as turnovers. Better shooting is 40%. TO rate is 25%. Oboarding percentage is 20%. FT rate is 15%. K-State is generally better than opponents in shooting and TOs which makes up for poor rebounding.
This is good stuff
This means more to me coming from you @mocat .
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LOSERS
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I think if we can do 2 or these 3 things, we will win---
1) KState winning the 3pt% battle.
* Cats are 11-1 in last 20 when we win it
2) Win TO battle by 3-4 or more. 3-4 would be about 4.5- 6.0 on TO%. We won't win the OR battle but can surely win the TO one.
3) Limit UK to 15 or fewer FT makes. This should mean their FTR is below or well below their norm. UK has made 15 or fewer 7 times last 24 games. They are 2-5 in such games. Our Cats have been better on Defensive FTR lately. In the last 12 games, we only are allowing 11.2 FT makes (32% FTR)
We got 2 of the 3.
88 FTR that the Refs helped you get and you still lost Kentucky. Have a nice trip home!
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This must feel incredible. I envy y'all.
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Where can I watch a replay?
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Where can I watch a replay?
CBS Sports Channel was looping it last night. It's a great news station during the tournament.
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Where can I watch a replay?
March Madness On Demand App and NCAA.com