Author Topic: Cryptocurrency Master Thread  (Read 216689 times)

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Offline steve dave

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1725 on: April 30, 2020, 05:28:49 AM »
lmao


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Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1726 on: April 30, 2020, 06:46:58 AM »
Every sat counts!
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline DaBigTrain

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"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline Spracne

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1728 on: May 01, 2020, 11:42:10 PM »
Hey, what's S2F multiple mean?

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1729 on: May 01, 2020, 11:43:51 PM »
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline Spracne

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1730 on: May 01, 2020, 11:48:17 PM »
Hey, what's S2F multiple mean?
:dubious:

Yes, I asked you a question. Unless I actually clowned you, in which case that was obvs on purpose.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1731 on: May 01, 2020, 11:56:27 PM »
Hey, what's S2F multiple mean?
:dubious:

Yes, I asked you a question. Unless I actually clowned you, in which case that was obvs on purpose.
I mean just read the chart legend dude. I’ve posted articles for over a year now on S2F. They explain it way better than I could in free form.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline DaBigTrain

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"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline DaBigTrain

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"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline SeanSnyder4Prez

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1734 on: May 05, 2020, 12:16:37 PM »
Hey, what's S2F multiple mean?

DaBigTrain is right in that there is alot of info out there alot better than I can provide, but I'll do my best to give a quick overview.

Stock-to-Flow (S2F) is basically an inverse measure of inflation. With an inflation rate, you are dividing new supply of good by existing supply of good (Flow/Stock). When calculating S2F ratio, simply flip inflation ratio (Stock/Flow). A high S2F basically indicates that the new supply of a good is a smaller fraction of the existing supply, perhaps having less leverage on price.

Higher inflation (low S2F) is seen in things like commodities (corn, beef, oil). Low inflation (high S2F) is seen in gold and eventually bitcoin as halving schedule progresses. Roughly every 4 years the halving event occurs, at which point the regularly issued block subsidies are cut in half for the next ~4 years. Eventually, the total number of bitcoins in supply asymptotically approaches 21 million- I believe around 18 million have been issued to this point.

The basic idea behind the S2F model is that increasing scarcity of BTC will drive the price up. Using historical data, pseudononymous PlanB on twitter has come up with a model which transforms the S2F ratio of bitcoin into a market cap of bitcoin, which can be easily divided into a bitcoin price (with some consideration for lost coins maybe or maybe not counted in stock). Since the BTC S2F is always increasing, it speculates that BTC price will always increase in the long term. The model has an extremely high coefficient of determination, around .99, but many theorize that there is a spurious relationship- lots of advanced statistical math workign to prove cointegration that I don't particularly understand.

Depending on which S2F model is being used, a target price prediction has been made at $55k, $100k, and $288k by Plan B for the next 4 year halving cycle. He inst attempting to predict an exact high price at an exact date, but says that the target price should have printed BTC prices on either side of it.

I don't really believe much in the model because I don't have the statistical background to confirm or debunk, but the leading statistical proponent of the model recently determined that it is probably BS. Whether the model is right or wrong, I do believe in bitcoin medium and long term so its fun to read the stories about it and get hype about the yachts we will buy.

Plan B article 1- $55k
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

Plan B article 2- less about S2F, interesting stuff about bitcoin portfolio sharpe ratios
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107

Plan B article 3- $288k
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12

I cant find where he predicted $100k- might have just been on twitter.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2020, 12:30:54 PM by SeanSnyder4Prez »

Offline 8manpick

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1735 on: May 05, 2020, 12:41:10 PM »
Not gEing, that sounds kind of like a ponzi scheme
:adios:

Offline SeanSnyder4Prez

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1736 on: May 05, 2020, 12:50:48 PM »
yeah maybe it is

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1737 on: May 05, 2020, 12:51:27 PM »
It's not.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline stunted

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1738 on: May 06, 2020, 10:41:03 PM »
anyone use paxful, or is there a better way to sell bitcoin for venmo? or does anyone want to do the trade here?

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1739 on: May 07, 2020, 12:29:41 PM »
anyone use paxful, or is there a better way to sell bitcoin for venmo? or does anyone want to do the trade here?

I have not.  Just did a quick search for it though.  I have never sold Bitcoin using Venmo, usually just use CashApp or a couple other exchanges.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1740 on: May 07, 2020, 12:30:23 PM »
We just might break $10k before the halving after all, guys!   :driving:
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline Spracne

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1741 on: May 07, 2020, 01:25:32 PM »
We just might break $10k before the halving after all, guys!   :driving:

I thought it was supposed to be $100k.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1742 on: May 07, 2020, 01:50:31 PM »
We just might break $10k before the halving after all, guys!   :driving:

I thought it was supposed to be $100k.

Like I have said MANY times the highest price for the past 2 halvings occurred about a year and half AFTER the halving.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline SeanSnyder4Prez

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1743 on: May 07, 2020, 08:03:22 PM »
$10k today... unreal run from $3.8k just 2 months ago.

It’s not even close to being done this cycle.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1744 on: May 07, 2020, 08:11:46 PM »
I read this a while back and hadn’t posted it anywhere but thought I would share my opinion. During the last big run in Dec 2017 was the first time Bitcoin moved more than $1000 in a single day. That was the peak of the bull run. This time, like what I read a while back will be the first time Bitcoin moves more than $10,000 in a single day. At that point I think we will see the new ATH at the very top.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1745 on: May 07, 2020, 08:47:27 PM »
Thread. Who knows what is going to happen but I would take this all day everyday and twice on Sunday’s. :driving:

https://twitter.com/raoulgmi/status/1258567633168932874
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Offline SeanSnyder4Prez

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1746 on: May 07, 2020, 09:40:55 PM »
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6xdkq15zwNQlpF4hvWvxLr?si=1l0P4TWXSP6UKlj1pi0XcA

Pretty good listen if you are already interested and decently versed in bitcoin and S2F model. Livera is my favorite bitcoin podcaster- and the guest is PlanB of the S2F model as well as Saifedean Ammous, well regarded Austrian economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard, which I recommend to anyone who shows even a tangential interest in bitcoin. PlanB is on Livera podcast 1 or two other times before, worth the listen in those instances too. He finally started pronouncing “scarce” in the American way this time!

Offline SeanSnyder4Prez

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1747 on: May 07, 2020, 09:43:55 PM »
We just might break $10k before the halving after all, guys!   :driving:

I thought it was supposed to be $100k.

It will be :)

I’m not even going to start selling even a little of my stack until $100k...

Offline Spracne

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1748 on: May 07, 2020, 09:45:30 PM »
We just might break $10k before the halving after all, guys!   :driving:

I thought it was supposed to be $100k.

It will be :)

I’m not even going to start selling even a little of my stack until $100k...

I'm going to cash out at 40K and then wait for it to hit a low again.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Cryptocurrency Master Thread
« Reply #1749 on: May 07, 2020, 09:53:38 PM »
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6xdkq15zwNQlpF4hvWvxLr?si=1l0P4TWXSP6UKlj1pi0XcA

Pretty good listen if you are already interested and decently versed in bitcoin and S2F model. Livera is my favorite bitcoin podcaster- and the guest is PlanB of the S2F model as well as Saifedean Ammous, well regarded Austrian economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard, which I recommend to anyone who shows even a tangential interest in bitcoin. PlanB is on Livera podcast 1 or two other times before, worth the listen in those instances too. He finally started pronouncing “scarce” in the American way this time!
I’ve read The Bitcoin Standard 3 times and highly recommend it to anyone. As a person tho, Saifedean is a pretty big POS.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f