Posted from another board from a UNC fan.
Check out point #5. We are doomed
UNC fan here; I can't ever remember being this excited about a play-in game. There are so many great storylines in this game, and I genuinely think the winner has a chance to continue in the tournament after this game. Personally, I am rooting for the winner of this game to make a run to the Elite Eight.
In case you are interested, I will add a few details about Wake Forest (which is not far down the road from where I live, so I know a bit about their program):
First, in a conference with a whopping 15 teams and with many good squads full of NBA talent, John Collins was the best player. He finished second in voting and didn't win ACC POY (my man, Justin Jackson did), but that was only because Wake finished 10th in the conference. However, Collins is a one man wrecking crew. Key: get him in foul trouble.
Wake is an extremely good offensive team; we are talking a top 10 offense per Kenpom. Collins is an exceptional passer if you double him down low, and they have several good three point shooters (including a stretch four) to make you pay after the pass. As far as getting the ball to Collins, they have guards who are good at entry passes into the post if you front him, and he has suction cups on his hands to snatch the ball. You also can't double him until he has the ball because - as mentioned earlier - they have several good shooters who can light it up from deep (they shoot about 39% from three as a team). In addition, they can be a dynamic team on the fast break with several capable finishers among the guards if you don't get back on D.
While they have a strong offense, Wake is not as balanced on offense and defense as K State. In fact, they are downright terrible on D. They played better the last few weeks which helped them sneak into the NCAA tournament, but one of the reasons they often have high scoring games is they let the other team score so easily! What you want to do is beat their guards and get Collins in foul trouble; he tries to block shots and cover for his defense when the guards get beat, and he is prone to taking himself out of the game as a result.
They are very young in key spots, and they don't have NCAA experience. This could be a big boost for K State who has enjoyed a pretty healthy share of seasons reaching the NCAA tournament under oscar Weber.
One quirky data point for this game; Wake Forest is extremely good at coming back when they fall behind. They were behind by double digits in all three of their final games before VT, and they came back and won them (including down 19 to two seed Louisville), so hopefully you guys have a team that is good at maintaining leads, because Wake Forest is not a team that dies easily.
Prediction: I think it is a toss up on paper, and quite frankly I don't know enough about Kansas State to know how they match up. Both teams are better than their record and underseeded per Kenpom, so I think it will be a good game either way. Best wishes to the winner for a long tourney run!
