Author Topic: kenpom 30, no tourney  (Read 41082 times)

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Offline catastrophe

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #350 on: March 08, 2019, 08:27:37 AM »
Of course the ideal would be to introduce more variables and attempt to assign the right weight to each in order to get the “luck” factor as low as possible for every team. I just have no idea where you’d start to do that.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #351 on: March 08, 2019, 08:58:52 AM »
I don't think our fans really understand how bad our offense was in the OOC against a pretty meh schedule. We did one really good thing with our scheduling by only including 3 >200 teams. However, we only ended up with 1 <50 team. Then we proceeded to play a bunch of those teams close, got one ok-ish win over Mizzou, got drilled by the only good team we played, and lost to a pair of mediocre (at best) teams. It was a really great schedule for an RPI metric, but no so much for any metric that includes efficiency. I think this team more than made up for it in the league, but the major reason any efficiency metric is in the mid to high 20s is because of our dreadful OOC offense.

So that's the only point I'm making. K-State is not a Top 10 Team. We don't deserve a 1 or 2 seed under any circumstance, or even 3 seed just based upon finishing 14-4 in conference. But anybody looking at this team in conference play the last few months would slate us in the Top 20, yet we're currently ranked 26 in the NET, below dumpster fire Iowa State, based upon games played in December. That's idiotic.

There is a big difference between seeds 3, 4, and 5 in the NCAAs. The 3 has a massive advantage. I'd almost prefer the 6 over the 4/5 line. Winning the Big 12 and a couple of games in the B12T should by all rights get us a 3, but I'm not so sure it will based on NET.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline 8manpick

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #352 on: March 08, 2019, 09:03:39 AM »
If I were even remotely a stats person I’d devise a system that actually took the “luck” factor into account and self-adjusted to raise the rankings for high luck teams (those consistently outperforming their expectations based on the model) and low luck teams (those consistently underperforming expectations).

To just leave it out there like a :dunno: seems lazy.
This would make it less predictive of future results
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Offline catastrophe

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #353 on: March 08, 2019, 09:06:00 AM »
Would it? Presumably, an exceptionally high luck factor means the model has already consistently failed to predict future results as to that team. Or am I mistaking what the number really represents?

Offline pissclams

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #354 on: March 08, 2019, 09:12:54 AM »
my goodness


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

New warning: Don't get in a fight with someone who doesn't even need to bother to buy ink.

Offline KITNfury

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #355 on: March 08, 2019, 09:35:43 AM »


There is a big difference between seeds 3, 4, and 5 in the NCAAs.
Is there though? I think several bracketologists have us as a 4. I was just thinking this morning that I'm not sure it makes a HUGE difference (not a zero difference though) whether we climb a seed or fall a seed. We still avoid a 1 or 2 until the Sweet 16 (at the earliest). After that, I'd argue matchups are far more important than seeding, which is luck of the draw.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline 8manpick

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #356 on: March 08, 2019, 09:52:52 AM »


There is a big difference between seeds 3, 4, and 5 in the NCAAs.
Is there though? I think several bracketologists have us as a 4. I was just thinking this morning that I'm not sure it makes a HUGE difference (not a zero difference though) whether we climb a seed or fall a seed. We still avoid a 1 or 2 until the Sweet 16 (at the earliest). After that, I'd argue matchups are far more important than seeding, which is luck of the draw.
Pretty big historical difference between 1s and 2s though.
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Offline KITNfury

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #357 on: March 08, 2019, 10:06:08 AM »


There is a big difference between seeds 3, 4, and 5 in the NCAAs.
Is there though? I think several bracketologists have us as a 4. I was just thinking this morning that I'm not sure it makes a HUGE difference (not a zero difference though) whether we climb a seed or fall a seed. We still avoid a 1 or 2 until the Sweet 16 (at the earliest). After that, I'd argue matchups are far more important than seeding, which is luck of the draw.
Pretty big historical difference between 1s and 2s though.
We have no shot of even making a 2 though.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline 8manpick

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #358 on: March 08, 2019, 10:08:18 AM »
Difference between being a 3 and a 4 is the difference of matching the 1 seed line or the 2 seed line in the S16. The 1 seed is about 25% more likely to make the S16 than the 2 seed.

https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/
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Offline KITNfury

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #359 on: March 08, 2019, 10:18:24 AM »
Difference between being a 3 and a 4 is the difference of matching the 1 seed line or the 2 seed line in the S16. The 1 seed is about 25% more likely to make the S16 than the 2 seed.

https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/
Sure, notice I didn't say there was no difference, I just wouldn't say it's a huge difference. Once you get to the Sweet 16, chances are, every game will be very tough...at least for a team that isn't of the truly elite of the given year.
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline Trim

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #360 on: March 08, 2019, 10:22:39 AM »
Just have the dreaded 1-seed potential opponent in your region lose their first-round game.

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #361 on: March 08, 2019, 10:42:27 AM »
you guys remember the last time oscar won the b12? we went 14-4, got a 4 seed and got to play at sprint center, and then lost to 13 seed lasalle in the first round, wow

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #362 on: March 08, 2019, 10:46:11 AM »
I still get pissed off thinking about that game.

Offline Winters

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #363 on: March 08, 2019, 10:54:22 AM »
you guys remember the last time oscar won the b12? we went 14-4, got a 4 seed and got to play at sprint center, and then lost to 13 seed lasalle in the first round, wow
Was not a pleasurable experience live
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Offline wetwillie

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #364 on: March 08, 2019, 10:56:17 AM »
I watched it in Vegas and basically everyone in the sportsbook had bet la salle on the money line
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #365 on: March 08, 2019, 11:05:10 AM »
If I had to choose between a 5 or 6, I’d most likely take the 6. If I had to choose between a 4 or 6, I still might take the 6 based upon matchups. Let’s just win the B12T and get a 3.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #366 on: March 08, 2019, 12:50:17 PM »
Welp never mind. Latest bracketology says we're a 4, so I guess Joe isn't looking purely at NET, either. That's right where I'd put us at this point.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline fun muffin

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #367 on: March 17, 2019, 06:59:06 PM »
Congrats Clemson!!!      :surprised:

Offline 8manpick

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #368 on: March 17, 2019, 08:48:11 PM »
And Texas!
:adios:

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #369 on: March 17, 2019, 11:51:12 PM »
Pretty embarrassing for kenpom if we're being honest. What's worst is the first team out is 81st in kenpom.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #370 on: March 18, 2019, 06:27:58 AM »
Yeah well we already knew the system was broken thanks to my top notch analysis ITT.

Offline mocat

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #371 on: March 18, 2019, 09:26:21 AM »
congratulations to texas and clemson. rarified air. wow.

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: kenpom 30, no tourney
« Reply #372 on: March 15, 2022, 10:05:40 AM »
'grats to boomer sooner