I get all that but I'm not convinced concerts will sell out immediately (at least nationwide)
Well Blake Shelton and Chris Stapleton have both announced concerts here that only have scattered singles out and that's playing to a full house, no distancing. There's no reason to believe that won't be the case everywhere. You're kidding yourself if you don't think Taylor Swift couldn't sell out the Rose Bowl tomorrow if she was willing and able to do a concert there. The people most unwilling to go to a concert are not the audience for a concert in non pandemic times, these people are also the ones getting vaccinated right now. I think there's going to have to be a massive coronavirus surge for people to go back to what we thought about this pandemic last spring.
Chris Stapleton isn't close to sold out in the Bay.
Yeah I agree Taylor Swift would probably sell out the Rose Bowl but she's arguably the biggest star in the world along with Beyonce. Dua Lipa would probably be a reasonable arena show, she's not close to the Tay level
California is very different from most of the United States in this. A June concert in the Bay is pretty early given Cal, and particularly SF, restrictions/attitudes to Covid.
It might be a stretch to relate to US concert traffic, but crap movies in China are setting box office records because people are wanting to get out and do anything. Leisure hotel rooms are picking up through the summer and fall pretty rapidly now when previously nothing booked more than a week out. This summer is going to be crazy for travel/events. Granted, California's restrictions have put them on the slow end of leisure travel recovery.